Jeff Karstens Hates Sabermetrics

The Pirates are starting a big time four game set with the Los Angeles Dodgers tonight, and they are sending Jeff Karstens to the hill to start it off.

Karstens is one guy that I have taken a long time to warm up to. He came to the Pirates in 2008 and made nine starts. In his second start he took a perfect game into the 8th inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Since then, he's worn a Pirate uniform in 78 starts and has made 37 relief appearances. He has a 4.30 career ERA as a Pirate, but that number is a more impressive 3.99 ERA since 2010.

He had a career season in 2011 posting a 3.38 ERA in 26 starts. Despite that, I was there the whole way saying he was ready to collapse. While his first half was much better than his second half, when you look back on it he had a very solid year the whole way through.

The reason I have always been a Karstens doubter is the sabermetrics. He posted a ridiculous left on base percentage of 77.4% last year, and that was much higher for the first part of the year. His BABIP was .275 last year and he struck out just 5.4 batters per nine, which suggested to me that he was getting very lucky.

We're into mid August right now and Karstens is doing the same things as he was last year. He missed a bunch of time so he's only made 11 starts this year, but he's posted a 3.77 ERA in that time. He's had a few brilliant starts, going eight scoreless innings against the Astros and seven scoreless against the Marlins. In his last seven starts he has a 2.80 ERA, long story short he's been getting the job done. His strikeouts are up this year at 6.7, which is encouraging especially since his walks are still ridiculously low at 1.9. He has another high strand rate at 71.0%, but it's lower than last year. The BABIP is right around average at .295, so to sabermetricians, his numbers seem more legitimate this year.

Some people believe in the saber side of baseball, and some don't. I've always been a supporter of them, but it's clear that Karstens really doesn't care for them.

No matter what the numbers have said, Karstens wins ballgames for his team. The team is 19-18 since last year when Karstens starts, which doesn't look great but it's pretty good considering the team lost 92 games last year. The Pirates are 7-4 with him pitching this year, and they'll have a good shot at making that mark 8-4 if he keeps pitching like he has been since returning from injury this year.

Jeff Karstens is one guy that makes me question some of the numbers I usually rely on, and I'm fine with that as long as he keeps doing what he's been doing.