Let's Play Two

The Pirates have a split squad double header going on today. Half the team faces the Orioles in Bradenton, while the other half goes back to Port Charlotte to face the Rays, again. Here are the gamedays:
Orioles vs. Pirates
Pirates vs. Rays

You can also listen to the audio of the Orioles game at mlb.com.

Today's Pitchers:
vs. Orioles: Paul Maholm, Jeff Karstens, Tyler Yates, Jeff Locke, Michael Crotta, Justin Wilson, Cesar Valdez
at Rays: Bryan Morris,Fernando Nieve, Sean Gallagher, Aaron Thompson, Kyle McPherson

21-1

The Pittsburgh Pirates suffered a historical loss to Manatee Community College Lancers two years ago. Last year they bounced back with a 6-1 victory, but you could tell that that '09 loss was still on their mind (despite the fact that every single player that played in the game today was not a part of the '09 game). The Pirates scored 21 runs in 6 innings of batting and defeated the newly named State College of Florida Manatees in merciless fashion.

Here's the box score, courtesy of mlb.com (click to view full size):

There's nothing you can take from a game against a college team, but it was fun to see the Pirates score a lot of runs. The biggest stories were Garrett Atkins homering, as he begins to make an early case for a roster spot on Opening Day, and Steven Pearce driving in 4 runs, as he also tries to impress the coaches enough to earn a bench spot in April. We'll keep a close eye on those two guys for the rest of the spring.

The Pirates take the field again tomorrow in Port Charlotte Florida as they take on the Tampa Bay Rays in their first grapefruit league game. The game is at 1:05, and you can listen to it on 104.7 WPGB-FM if you are in Pittsburgh, or listen to the game through mlb.com's radio plug-in.

Pirates vs. SCF Manatees Livestream / Chat

The Pirates are taking on the State College of Florida Manatees today. Go to this link to watch a stream of the game and chat with us Pirate fans/bloggers.

The "Mc" Effect Podcasting: 2011 Milwaukee Brewers Preview

I'm going to start doing some series work in the Pittsburgh Pirates podcasting game. Kyle Lobner, a Brewers blogger at brewcrewball.com joined me to kick off my preview of the NL Central series.

Click here to listen to it, or download it from iTunes, by clicking here.

Playing Some Games

Spring training games will officially start this weekend. Tomorrow, the Pittsburgh Pirates open up competition against the State College of Florida (formerly known as Manatee Community College) in a 7-inning exhibition. The Pirates have announced their lineup for the game, here it is:

1. Corey Wimberly, 2B
2. Chase d'Arnaud, SS
3. Steve Pearce, 1B
4. John Bowker, LF
5. Josh Fields, DH
6 Andy Marte, 3B
7. Andrew Lambo, RF
8. Gorkys Hernandez, CF
9. Wyatt Toregas, C

Alex Presley, Tony Sanchez, Garrett Atkins, Josh Rodriguez, and Eric Fryer will be on the bench for the game.

Guys taking the mound for the Pirates will be Aaron Thompson, Tyler Yates, Jeff Locke, Michael Crotta, Justin Wilson, Kyle McPherson, and Rudy Owens.

None of the above are expected to be starting on Opening Day for the Pirates, and Rodriguez and Atkins are the only two players expected to make the big league club out of spring.

So that's your lineup for tomorrow. The Pirates will open up play against big league opponents Saturday. The lineup isn't out yet but I'd expect it to look a lot more like a major league team. We do know that Charlie Morton will start the game, pitch 2 innings, and will be followed by Brad Lincoln, who will also throw 2 innings. Chris Resop, Danny Moskos, Daniel McCutchen, Cesar Valdez, and Justin Thomas will finish the game from there.

It sure did feel good to type in some lineups. We'll have some more news and notes after the game tomorrow.

Pirates Prospects in Spring Training Podcast

Another installment of my podcasting series, this one focuses on the Pittsburgh Pirates prospects going into spring training. My guest is Tim Williams from PiratesProspects.com, which is one of the most popular Pirates blogs on the web.

Click here to listen to it.

The "Mc" Effect Podcasting

Offseason & Spring Training Talk, featuring @alansmodic
Click Here To Play  -   iTunes

Pirates Prospects in Spring Training, featuring Tim Williams from PiratesProspects.com
Click Here To Play  -   iTunes

Milwaukee Brewers Preview, featuring Kyle Lobner from BrewCrewBall.com
Click Here To Play   -   iTunes

St. Louis Cardinals Preview, featuring Aaron Hooks from cardsdiaspora.com
Click Here To Play   -   iTunes

2011 Pirates Preview, featuring Corey from threeriversburghblog.blogspot.com
Click Here To Play   -   iTunes

Hot Corner Alvarez

First of all, let me say how great it feels to know that the 2011 Pittsburgh Pirates baseball season is finally (unofficially, I suppose) under way. Pitchers and catchers have reported and the Pirates will have their first workouts and practices today. Now to the point, earlier today, Dejan Kovacevic made a blog post questioning why the Pirates still have Pedro Alvarez playing third base. He made the valid point that Alvarez is a terrible defensive third baseman, which is very true. He also made the point that due to his frame and other components of his make-up suggest that he'll never turn into a capable third baseman, that is more debatable but still probably true. However, the team's current situation makes it clear (to me, at least) that Pedro should continue to play third base through the 2011 season. The main reason for that is because we already have a first baseman (we have 3 actually). Lyle Overbay was brought in to give us more consistency at the plate and better defense this season, and Garrett Jones and Steve Pearce will also contribute at the position this year. There's an argument that Alvarez should have been made into a first baseman this year and the Pirates should not have bothered signing Overbay. However, that would leave us without a guy to play third. The free agent market at the position was thin this year, and despite the Pirates feeble "attempts" to sign Adrian Beltre, they really didn't have a reasonable shot to sign a major league third baseman. So the Pirates have a big league average hitting first baseman in Overbay who plays good defense, decent back up options in Jones and Pearce, and a very good hitting Alvarez who plays bad defense with no real back up options. I don't know what Dejan would expect the Pirates to do at third base this year if they would move Alvarez to first, but one thing's for sure - it wouldn't be pretty. The Pirates have the first pick in the 2011 draft and everyone is expecting them to select Anthony Rendon with that pick. Rendon is the best player in the draft by far and has been rated the best defender at any position in college baseball. He has major upside with the bat and could turn into an all-star third baseman if everything works out his way. That sad, we won't be seeing him in Pittsburgh until at the very least 2013, and probably later. So basically we need Alvarez to be ready to play good defense at first base by 2013. I don't think it takes a full 2 seasons to figure out how to play first base, so there's no harm in keeping him at third this year (besides the runs that he will cost the team there from being such a mediocre defender, but it's not like we have a more capable player behind him).

2011 Fantasy Baseball Preview - Starting Pitchers Rankings, 2

Introduction  - Catchers  - First Basemen  - Second Basemen  
Third Basemen  - Shortstops  - Outfielders 1  - Outfielders 2  
Starting Pitchers 1  - Starting Pitchers 2

#26 Clay Buchholz
Buchholz had a breakout season with the Red Sox in 2010, posting a 2.33 ERA. However, his 3.61 FIP, .261 BABIP, and 6.22 K/9 show that there's no reason to expect to see him repeat those numbers in 2011. He has upside, but will be overdrafted because of his good ERA in 2010.

#27 John Danks
This is where we start getting slimmer with the pitchers. Danks is a very inconsistent pitcher, although he ended up with a respectable 3.72 ERA and 6.85 K/9 in 2010. He's only 26 years old so he has some room to improve, but he's nothing more than a #3 fantasy starter.

#28 Matt Garza
Garza is another guy moving from the American League to the National League, so that's a good thing for his fantasy owners. He had a very strong start to 2010 but got a little inconsistent later on. He finished with respectable numbers but nothing great. Pitching in the NL Central instead of the AL East should do some good things for his numbers, but the 4.42 FIP isn't very encouraging. There's no way to really know what Garza is going to do, so draft with caution.

#29 Jonathan Sanchez
If you want a sure thing strikeout pitcher late in the draft, Sanchez is the guy. His 9.54 K/9 was one of the best in bsaeball. However, his FIP was 4.00. All the rest of his numbers seem pretty solid, but he's unproven at the age of 29, which limits the upside, and heightens the downside, if you will.

#30 Chad Billingsley
Billingsley is another solid #3 option for your fantasy team. He posted a good 3.57 ERA and a better 3.07 FIP last year with just over 8 strikeouts per nine. That says good things about his 2011 season, and he's going to be a good value pick again this year.

#31 Brett Anderson
Anderson is one of the youngest pitchers we're talking about in these 2 posts. He's 23 years old and posted a 2.80 ERA last year. He doesn't strike a ton of guys out but knows how to get batters out. There is a long ways to go with him before we can really trust him, so you're taking a risk drafting him, but there's pretty big upside here.

#32 Shaun Marcum
Marcum is switching leagues to the NL this year and should improve on the already solid 3.64 ERA he posted last year. The rest of the numbers don't tell us much, he's been consistent his whole career. Just another solid pitcher with upside because of the league switch.

#33 Brandon Morrow
Morrow is a flamethrowing strikeout pitcher. However, he gets hit around pretty good at times. He gave up a .245 BAA last year and had a pretty ugly ERA of 4.49. His FIP was 3.16 which shows some serious upside. Draft this guy late, enjoy the massive strikeout numbers and hope his defense helps him out more than last year. He could be one of your best draft picks.

#34 Ricky Romero
Romero was very good last year, posting that 3.73 ERA. Batters hit only .239 off of him and his LD% stayed constant with his career average. He's a good guy to get, with good upside at the age of 27.

#35 Phil Hughes
Hughes was in contention for the ERA title for awhile, but blew up near the middle and end of the year, and finished with a mediocre 4.19 ERA. His 4.24 FIP showed that it wasn't because of Yankees stadium or any defensive issues, he just isn't all that great at getting batters out. Hitters hit .241 off of him and he doesn't strike out a ton of batters. He should get some wins playing for the Yankees, but I'm not seeing him being any better than average this year.

#36 Wandy Rodriguez
Rodriguez has been pitching very well the last 2 seasons, posting a 3.60 ERA last year with a 3.50 FIP. He doesn't strike out a ton of batters, but he did a nice job last year compared to the rest of his career. His LD% is kind of high and playing in Houston doesn't help him. He's 32 years old now so there's not much in terms of upside. I'd avoid Rodriguez.

#37 Tim Hudson
Hudson had a very impressive year posting a 2.83 ERA in 2010. That came along with only 5.47 K/9, and was helped a lot by a .249 BABIP and a 13.6% LD%. At the age of 36, I don't see Hudson being too relevant in fantasy this year. I have him ranked much lower than everyone else though, so I could be very wrong and he could be very helpful to your team again this year.

#38 Daniel Hudson
The other Hudson had a very nice year last year, while not many people had heard of him. He was 23 last year and posted a 2.45 ERA and a ridiculous .199 BAA. That was helped by a very low .241 BABIP, showing that it could've been a little flukish. However, he's really young so there's not much we can say for sure. Hudson is a good upside guy that you can get late.

#39 Jhoulys Chacin
Chacin is one of my favorite pitchers this year. At the age of 22 he struck out 9.04 batters per nine innings and posted a 3.28 ERA pitching for the Rockies in Coors Field. Those are impressive numbers. His BABIP was .285, and his BAA was .222, both things suggest that he's for real. He's going to go late in this years drafts, and you'd be wised to grab him.

#40 Jeremy Hellickson
Hellickson was spectacular in his short time starting for the Rays last year. He made 4 starts and posted a 2.05 ERA with a .172 BAA and 25 strikeouts in those starts. The numbers you see above include 10 bullpen appearances, which wasn't what he was used to. He is going to be a starter for the Rays this year and has some seriously nasty stuff. He will probably struggle a bit adjusting to the big leagues, but he has big strikeout upside, so he'll help your team in that way at least, with big potential to be a very good value pick. Grab Hellickson late.

#41 Madison Bumgarner
Bumgarner had a coming out party in the World Series, but his great performance in the postseason wasn't any surprise to people in San Francisco, who watched him post a 3.00 ERA in his time with the Giants. He doesn't strike a ton of guys out, and his FIP was higher than his ERA, but he's still a good guy to get late and bank on him realizing his very high ceiling.

#42 Colby Lewis
Lewis is 32 and had pretty unimpressive numbers before last year. His career 5.27 ERA and 4.64 FIP show that 2010 was really a out of nowhere season when he poste da 3.72 ERA and a 3.55 FIP. He is probably capable of doing much better than his career averages, but I wouldn't expect him to do what he did in 2010 again. I'd pass on Lewis this year, you can get young pitchers with much higher ceilings than Lewis around the same time in the draft.

#43 Brett Myers
Myers is another guy in his 30's that seems to be getting ready to fall off the map. His 2010 season was much better than his career averages, so I think he's going to be drafted too high this year, despite being #43 on my own list. Again, there's much better options at this point in the draft in young guys with better upside.

#44 Hiroki Kuroda
Kuroda missed some time in 2010 but posted a 3.39 ERA and 7.29 K/9 when he was in there. Those are very solid numbers, but at the age of 36 he's far from a sure thing.

#45 Trevor Cahill
Cahill had a 2.97 ERA in 2010, and a very impressive .217 BAA and 15% LD%. He isn't going to strike guys out, and he had a very, very low BABIP last year. He won't have ERA under 3 again, but he could be a good value pick late in the draft.

#46 Jorge de la Rosa
De La Rosa is good strikeout pitcher who struggles to post good ERA and wins numbers. If you need some strikeouts, it wouldn't be a bad idea to draft De La Rosa late in the draft, but don't expect much from him besides the K's.

2011 Fantasy Baseball Preview - Starting Pitchers Rankings, 1

Introduction  - Catchers  - First Basemen  - Second Basemen  
Third Basemen  - Shortstops  - Outfielders 1  - Outfielders 2  
Starting Pitchers 1  - Starting Pitchers 2

#1 Roy Halladay
Halladay was been nothing but dominant his entire career. Last year he won the NL Cy Young with a 2.44 ERA while striking out 7.86 batters per nine. His LD% stayed constant with career average, as did almost everything else. Halladay should dominate again this year, I would consider him as a late first round pick.

#2 Felix Hernandez
One of the more disputed Cy Young award winners in recent memory, Hernandez took the award with a 2.27 ERA, but won only 13 games. The wins aren't something that you worry about when evaluating a pitcher's abilities, but it does factor into the fantasy game. The Mariners can't possibly be as bad offensively as last year, so the wins should come up, but he's still probably not going to win 20 games like some of the other guys around his draft position will. However, the ERA and strikeouts are too good to pass up.

#3 Tim Lincecum
The freak had an up and down season in 2010, frustrating some of his fantasy owners. He finished up strong with a 3.43 ERA and another great 9.8 K/9. Lincecum's FIP was down at 3.15, which shows he was hurt by his defense and park factors. He actually pitched better than the 3.43 ERA, which is impressive. Lincecum is a stud, and rounds out by top tier of starting pitchers.

#4 Jon Lester
Another big strikeout pitcher, Lester posted a 9.74 K/9 last year with a 3.25 ERA. His FIP was even lower than that, which is encouraging. One of the most impressive things about Lester's 2010 was that batters hit only .217 off of him with 16.9% LD%. Those numbers are both near the tops in the league. Lester was better than most people thought last year, and he should continue to post those types of numbers. I have him at 4, which is higher than most, but I really think he'll be a top 5 guy pretty easily.

#5 Adam Wainwright
Wainwright had another stellar season in 2010 with a 2.42 ERA and 8.32 K/9. The FIP was also solid at 2.86. His BABIP was .275 which is kind of low and could lead to a higher ERA/WHIP for him this year, but there's no reason not to draft him if some of the other top guys are gone.
UPDATE: Wainwright will have Tommy John surgery and will not pitch in the 2011 season. Do not draft him.

#6 Cliff Lee
Lee got a ton of money from the Phillies and joins possibly one of the strongest rotations in baseball history. Last year he posted a 3.18 ERA with the Mariners and Rangers with batters hitting only .237 off of him. The strikeouts have never been stellar, but he had a better than average year in 2010 with a rate of 7.84. Lee is an ace, and you know what you're going to get with him.

#7 Ubaldo Jimenez
Jimenez had one of the most impressive first halves of anybody in baseball history last year, posting an ERA under 1. However, he struggled a bit in the 2nd half and wound up with a 2.88 ERA. His 3.10 FIP shows that that number really wasn't a fluke, and his 8.69 K/9 shows that he'll for sure contribute in a big way to any fantasy team he's on. I think the expectations might be a little high for him this year after he showed a different level of dominance in the first half of 2010, so he might be overdrafted. I wouldn't draft him until all the above guys are off the board.

#8 Josh Johnson
Johnson quietly had a very, very good 2010 season. He posted a 2.30 ERA and a 2.41 FIP, with 9.11 K/9. Not many other pitchers had numbers of that calibur. However, experts have him ranked pretty low. I have him at 8, which is higher than a lot of guys. Pitching seems really deep this year, but I think Johnson has the ability to be a first or second tier guy. The numbers are undeniable, I don't see why he can't put up numbers with the best in the league. He could be a pretty solid value pick in the 3rd or 4th round.

#9 C.C. Sabathia
Everyone knows about Sabathia, he's been dominating for years. Last year he posted a 3.18 ERA with 7.46 K/9. His LD% was one of the best in the game at 15.1%. However, he's 31 right now and showed some bad signs at the end of last year. I think this is the year he'll start to come down, although he'll be pretty much guaranteed 15 wins (if he stays healthy) with the lineup the Yankees have.

#10 David Price
Price was a serious contender for the Cy Young award in 2010, posting a 2.72 ERA and striking out 8.11 batters per nine. His LD% was 16.7, which is a result of how much his pitches move. He has some of the nastiest stuff in the game, but still struggles with control and pitch selection at times. He's at the young age of 26, so he has room to get even better. He has a lot of upside, but also a pretty good chance to not live up to that potential every start. I'd go with a more sure-thing with my first pitcher selection, but if you can get Price as your #2 guy, you're in great shape.

#11 Clayton Kershaw
Kershaw has nasty stuff. He has had problems being efficient in his young career, which has led to high pitch counts and not going deep into many games. However, he posts great numbers every year regardless. He might not get the wins that other top 10 pitchers are getting, but his career 3.17 ERA and 9.26 K/9 is good enough to be a #1 or #2 pitcher on a fantasy team. Big upside here if he matures a lot in 2011, could be a steal in the early rounds.

#12 Cole Hamels
If you wanted strikeouts in 2010 from your fantasy team, Hamels would've been a great guy to have. He struck out a ridiculous 9.10 batters per nine. He had some consistency problems that his 3.67 FIP shows, however his defense helped him out enough to get him a 3.06 ERA, very solid. At the age of 28, it wasn't surprising to see Hamels have a career season in 2010, but I'm not convinced he's THAT good. I think luck was a big part of his season last year and I wouldn't be surprised to see him post worse numbers than that in 2011. He might be overvalued as well just because he's a Phillie, I'd avoid him until the rest of the guys I've mentioned already are gone.

#13 Justin Verlander
Another big strikeout pitcher, Verlander struck out 8.79 batters per nine in 2010 and posted a 3.37 ERA. The FIP was 2.97 which shows that he was actually better than his numbers showed in 2010. Verlander is a big strikeout guy with ERA upside. The .224 batting average against also shows how dominant he was. Verlander is a very solid pick, and at #13 on my list, it really shows you how deep this years pitching pool is.

#14 Tommy Hanson
Hanson was one of the top pitching prospects in baseball a few years ago, and he has done very well in his almost 2 years in the big leagues. He posted a 3.33 ERA last year with a 3.31 FIP while striking out 7.68 batters per nine. We're getting to the point in this list where pitchers stop being incredibly dominant, and Hanson doesn't seem to be an incredibly dominant pitcher. He is only 25 years old and has a lot of room for improvement, but I just don't think he's at the level of the other guys I've talked about already. His batting average against of .235 lags behind the rest of the pack here and his strikeouts aren't stellar either. He could be a pretty good pick just because of the upside, but he shouldn't be a #1 starter on any fantasy team.

#15 Yovani Gallardo
Gallardo is another young arm that isn't quite dominant yet. His 3.84 ERA was solid last year but not what you want from a top fantasy starter. He strikes a ton of batters out but he gave up a .246 batting average against last year. That could've been negatively effected by his unlucky .324 BABIP but the 24% LD% isn't encouraging. However, Gallardo has really good stuff and really good control. I think he is going to break out this year, and will be a steal in drafts. I have him much higher than other ranking systems, but I think he'll be worth it in the end.

#16 Zack Greinke
The former Cy Young award winner is switching leagues, going from Kansas City to Milwaukee. Pitchers normally perform better in the National League than the American League, so there are reasons to draft Greinke early right off the bat. Last year he posted a mediocre 4.17 ERA with 7.40 K/9. His FIP was 3.34 which shows you how bad the Royals defense was. He pitched must better than his numbers show, despite really not wanting to be there. Going to Milwaukee will be a fresh start for Greinke and he should put up some really nice numbers. He could be a major steal for where you'll get him.

#17 Chris Carpenter
Carpenter's dominates when he's healthy, and he's been healthy for couple straight years now. However, he's 36 years old and it's a question as to how much he has left in the tank. Last year he put up another nice 3.22 ERA, but his strikeouts remained at a really unspectacular 6.86, much like he has posted the during the rest of his career. His BABIP was pretty low last year compared to his career average, and I just think there are a lot of reasons to believe he'll start slowing down in 2011. I'd avoid him.

#18 Jered Weaver
Weaver had a big year in 2010, and really flew under the radar. He struck out 9.35 batters per nine, much higher than his career average of 7.82. His ERA was also much lower than his average at 3.01 and his FIP was right there with it at 3.06. Batters hit only .220 off Weaver with a 15.8% LD%. It was kind of an out-of-nowhere year for Weaver, and it's really hard to say whether he'll replicate that success. He's 29 years old, so age isn't working for or against him. It's kind of a coin flip for Weaver this year, but it's hard to argue with 9.35 K/9 during a full big league season. I think he could be a pretty good value pick.

#19 Francisco Liriano
Liriano had a bounce back 2010 and posted a very nice 3.62 ERA with 9.44 K/9. His LD% stayed pretty on track with his career averages, as did his BAA. The BABIP was high in 2010 which could mean good things for 2011. It seems like he figured his issues out last year and should be a very good pitching option for fantasy players for the next few years.

#20 Matt Cain
Cain is ranked really low on some lists this year, despite the 3.14 ERA he posted last year. His strikeouts aren't spectacular at 7.44 K/9 for his career, and his FIP has always been higher than his ERA. However he's always had nice BAA numbers and he's been in the league long enough for you to trust him. Cain is just another really solid pitcher that is going to go late this year because of the incredible depth at starting pitcher.

#21 Roy Oswalt
Oswalt was traded to Philadelphia last year and seemed renewed. His posted a 2.76 ERA with 8.21 K/9. Those numbers are good enough to be a top 10 fantasy pitcher, but at the age of 34 we don't expect him to repeat. He'll have less pressure on him this year with Halladay, Lee, and Hamels in the rotation with him, and he will definitely help your fantasy team. There's not a ton of upside and there's some drop-down risk as well. But again, he'll be going late and he'll put up great numbers for where you get him.

#22 Dan Haren
Haren had a kind of frustrating 2010 season with the Diamondbacks and posted a 3.91 ERA when all was said and done. Haren's batting average against wasn't very good at .262 and at the age of 31 he seems to be slowing down fast. He was an ace a few years ago, but those days seem to be behind him. There is still the chance of a bounce-back year, but it's probably not good enough to draft him in the top 20.

#23 Mat Latos
Latos was a huge surprise in 2010, at least to people who don't follow the Padres. He posted a 2.92 ERA with 9.21 K/9. His BABIP was low at .273 which attributed to a .216 batting average against. We haven't seen him in the league for long, so there are questions as to if he can repeat his success, but if he does he'll be a great pitcher that you can get outside of the top 20.

#24 Ted Lilly
At the age of 34 Lilly had one of his best seasons in the majors. He posted a 3.62 ERA and struck out 7.71 batters per nine. His line drive percentage was well below his career average at 17.9%. However, his FIP was much higher than his ERA and he will be another year older in 2011. Lilly probably won't repeat his 2010 success, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him be a pretty big bust this year.

#25 Max Scherzer
Scherzer has been really inconsistent in his young career. He has good stuff and a lot of velocity on his fastball, but he has problems locating. He showed some great signs last year with a 3.50 ERA and 8.46 K/9, but there are serious questions with his make up. He has big upside but probably won't realize his potential yet, he'd be a good guy to get around the #25 spot, but you shouldn't reach too far for him.