The biggest question the Pirates have coming into the offseason is who will be playing catcher for the 2013 Pittsburgh Pirates? Rod Barajas will not be brought back, and the free agent market is thin at best. It really does not seem like the Pirates would get value for the money they would have to spend on a free agent backstop, which is unfortunate considering how little they got out of the position last year.
Some rumors have come up about a possible trade for the Red Sox Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Salty hit .222/.288/.454 last year with 25 home runs while playing respectable defense. The offense is inexistent; the Pirates would be lucky to see him outperform Barajas at the dish. The defense would probably be an upgrade, but then again we thought more of Barajas before this year started. Throwing out baserunners may be something that no catcher in the league could have been too successful at last year just because of how poor our pitchers were at stopping the running game. That said, there needs to be improved defense behind the plate.
I don't think it would take much to get Saltalamacchia, but I'm not even sure Bob Nutting wants to fork the cash for the extra letters to stitch his jersey with, so I'm thinking that's not going to happen.
Here's the way I look at it. There's really no way for the Pirates to bring somebody in that can hit as a catcher. They already have two pretty decent defensive options in Michael McKenry and Tony Sanchez that aren't going to cost them much money at all, so why even think about bringing someone else in? Chances are you'll get the same crappy offense from McKenry/Sanchez as you would from bringing someone else in, and Sanchez gives you some offensive upside.
We'll talk about this more later, but for right now I'm thinking the Pirates best bet is to stay with what they have right now and spend their money elsewhere. Just be ready for another disappointing offensive season from Pirates catchers in 2013.
My MVP Case for McCutchen
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Andrew McCutchen is an MVP finalist, as everyone fully expected him to be. At the very worst, McCutchen was the second best player in the National League this year. It's a two man race between him and the Giants' Buster Posey. Now, the Giants had a much better season than the Pirates. Not only did they win their division, they won the World Series. The MVP award is not supposed to consider the playoffs at all, and the voting takes place before the playoffs even begin, so Posey's World Series Grand Slam won't factor into the equation at all, but unfortunately the fact that the Giants made the postseason and the Pirates didn't will have an influence.
Most baseball people are saying that Posey deserves the award, and I don't have much of a problem with that. However, I think McCutchen had a season that should seriously be considered for the award. Here's my case.
The name of the award is Most Valuable Player, not most outstanding player or best player. I think that a lot of the time, voters vote for the best player instead of the most valuable player, there's a huge difference there. Keeping that in mind, here's some statistics:
The below picture shows McCutchen and Posey's individual seasons. I also took out McCutchen and Posey's statistics from their teams final season lines, just to see how much better these players were than the rest of their teams. Here's what it looks like (click to enlarge):
You can see the differentials there. McCutchen raised his team's batting average by nearly 100 points, their on-base percentage by 265 points, and their slugging percentage by 24 points. Posey's differentials don't compare with McCutchen's. I understand that this isn't the fairest way to look at it, because we are basically giving McCutchen credit for being on a really bad team. However, doesn't that prove his value to the team? He took a team that hit .262/.314/.381 without him and got them 79 wins. Posey played on a team with Melky Cabrera who hit .346/.390/.516 until mid August when he was suspended, Pablo Sandoval who hit a very solid .283/.342/.447 in a full season, and a pitching staff who put the National League's 5th best ERA. Posey was certainly very valuable to his team, but I think it's safe to say that the Giants still would have been in contention without him.
You certainly cannot say the same for the Pirates and McCutchen. The only offensive players that you could even argue for having a good offensive season were Pedro Alvarez (.244/.317/.467 with 30 HR), Neil Walker (.280/.342/.426) and Garrett Jones (.274/.317/.516 with 27 HR). The Pirates were average at best on the mound.
Let's take a look at the correlation between these players performances and how their teams did throughout the season. Here's a chart of McCutchen's performance by month, followed by a chart of the Pirates win percentage by month, and then the same for Posey.
McCutchen:
Posey:
Both players had some really great months and some not so great months. McCutchen's worst was August when he hit .252/.347/.346, the Pirates win percentage dipped heavily with that at a .393 winning clip. He also struggled in September, although some of the power came back, Cutch hit .254/.361/.500 and the Pirates won just 25% of their games. In Cutch's best month, July, Cutch hit .446/.510/.739 and the Pirates won 65% of their games. It's a pretty direct correlation. When Cutch was good, the Pirates won, when he wasn't good, the Pirates didn't. Obviously there was more to it than that, but the point remains true.
Posey has some correlation as well, but not nearly as striking. The Giants catcher had his worst month in May when he hit .253/.311/.363, however the Giants still won 52% of their games. Posey had a stellar second half of the season. In July he hit .381/.448/.595 but the Giants had their worst winning month of the year winning just half of their games. Posey kept going and hit .371/.482/.652 in August while his team won 62% of the games and the Giants were even better in September, winning 70% of the time while Posey hit .364/.415/.607. The Giants were still a .500 team while Posey wasn't doing much at the plate.
Again, this a one season sample, and you can't take all that much from what I just said. Just because Posey had bad month and the Giants still won half of their games doesn't mean that they would have been a .500 team with him hitting .250 all season long. That said, this part of the study certainly favors McCutchen for MVP.
A lot of attention goes to Wins Above Replacement when you're looking at the MVP picture. Posey does have the edge in that category (7.2 to 7.0 on baseball-reference and 8.0 to 7.4 on FanGraphs). A lot of that has to do with Posey playing catcher, which automatically helps his WAR number. Defensively, Posey was superior to McCutchen, who was a below average center fielder. All-in-all I don't think it's all that fair to just look at WAR. That number compares these players to a league-average replacement player, and has nothing specifically to do with the teams they play on.
The word "valuable" really is what makes me think that McCutchen should win the award. I personally don't really agree with the award being about value, because that eliminates some players right off the bat. Nobody from a really terrible team could ever be considered for the award, which isn't fair in my eyes. Every player strives to be the best player in the league, not the most valuable. Why not make the most prestigious award in the sport available to all the players, and not just the one on good teams? That's a question for another day. If we're talking straight value, and we are, the edge goes to Cutch in my eyes.
Most baseball people are saying that Posey deserves the award, and I don't have much of a problem with that. However, I think McCutchen had a season that should seriously be considered for the award. Here's my case.
The name of the award is Most Valuable Player, not most outstanding player or best player. I think that a lot of the time, voters vote for the best player instead of the most valuable player, there's a huge difference there. Keeping that in mind, here's some statistics:
The below picture shows McCutchen and Posey's individual seasons. I also took out McCutchen and Posey's statistics from their teams final season lines, just to see how much better these players were than the rest of their teams. Here's what it looks like (click to enlarge):
You can see the differentials there. McCutchen raised his team's batting average by nearly 100 points, their on-base percentage by 265 points, and their slugging percentage by 24 points. Posey's differentials don't compare with McCutchen's. I understand that this isn't the fairest way to look at it, because we are basically giving McCutchen credit for being on a really bad team. However, doesn't that prove his value to the team? He took a team that hit .262/.314/.381 without him and got them 79 wins. Posey played on a team with Melky Cabrera who hit .346/.390/.516 until mid August when he was suspended, Pablo Sandoval who hit a very solid .283/.342/.447 in a full season, and a pitching staff who put the National League's 5th best ERA. Posey was certainly very valuable to his team, but I think it's safe to say that the Giants still would have been in contention without him.
You certainly cannot say the same for the Pirates and McCutchen. The only offensive players that you could even argue for having a good offensive season were Pedro Alvarez (.244/.317/.467 with 30 HR), Neil Walker (.280/.342/.426) and Garrett Jones (.274/.317/.516 with 27 HR). The Pirates were average at best on the mound.
Let's take a look at the correlation between these players performances and how their teams did throughout the season. Here's a chart of McCutchen's performance by month, followed by a chart of the Pirates win percentage by month, and then the same for Posey.
Posey:
Both players had some really great months and some not so great months. McCutchen's worst was August when he hit .252/.347/.346, the Pirates win percentage dipped heavily with that at a .393 winning clip. He also struggled in September, although some of the power came back, Cutch hit .254/.361/.500 and the Pirates won just 25% of their games. In Cutch's best month, July, Cutch hit .446/.510/.739 and the Pirates won 65% of their games. It's a pretty direct correlation. When Cutch was good, the Pirates won, when he wasn't good, the Pirates didn't. Obviously there was more to it than that, but the point remains true.
Posey has some correlation as well, but not nearly as striking. The Giants catcher had his worst month in May when he hit .253/.311/.363, however the Giants still won 52% of their games. Posey had a stellar second half of the season. In July he hit .381/.448/.595 but the Giants had their worst winning month of the year winning just half of their games. Posey kept going and hit .371/.482/.652 in August while his team won 62% of the games and the Giants were even better in September, winning 70% of the time while Posey hit .364/.415/.607. The Giants were still a .500 team while Posey wasn't doing much at the plate.
Again, this a one season sample, and you can't take all that much from what I just said. Just because Posey had bad month and the Giants still won half of their games doesn't mean that they would have been a .500 team with him hitting .250 all season long. That said, this part of the study certainly favors McCutchen for MVP.
A lot of attention goes to Wins Above Replacement when you're looking at the MVP picture. Posey does have the edge in that category (7.2 to 7.0 on baseball-reference and 8.0 to 7.4 on FanGraphs). A lot of that has to do with Posey playing catcher, which automatically helps his WAR number. Defensively, Posey was superior to McCutchen, who was a below average center fielder. All-in-all I don't think it's all that fair to just look at WAR. That number compares these players to a league-average replacement player, and has nothing specifically to do with the teams they play on.
The word "valuable" really is what makes me think that McCutchen should win the award. I personally don't really agree with the award being about value, because that eliminates some players right off the bat. Nobody from a really terrible team could ever be considered for the award, which isn't fair in my eyes. Every player strives to be the best player in the league, not the most valuable. Why not make the most prestigious award in the sport available to all the players, and not just the one on good teams? That's a question for another day. If we're talking straight value, and we are, the edge goes to Cutch in my eyes.
Front Office to be Maintained
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We all have what they call "pet peeves" in this life, one of my biggest ones is when somebody can't admit when they aren't good at something, or they don't know a lot about a certain subject. If you have been reading this blog in recent months, you know that I will be the first one to admit that I have not been paying all that much attention to the Pittsburgh Pirates and I definitely do not have the strongest opinions on everything going on, but for now I'll weigh in anyways.
As you probably know, today Bob Nutting spoke with the media and told everybody that the front office will be maintained. There's been posts written about this all over Pirates blogs, so check those out for some more analysis, because what I'm going to give you now certainly won't be enough.
Basically, I'm down with keeping the guys around. You can certainly argue it either way, but from what I can tell, Neil Huntington and company have done a pretty good job since they've taken over. When he took the job, there was very little hope for the future; you can't say that anymore. The major league team is much, much better, and we have some real superstar caliber players in the minors. I wouldn't rank the Pirates very high up on the list of top farm systems in the game, but it has improved greatly, and there is still a bunch of young talent that will be on the 2013 Opening Day roster. Maybe you expected us to have been in this stage earlier, and you thought that by the time 2012 rolled around the Pirates would be a playoff team. They were nearly that last year, but a horrible collapse really turned things for the worse. The five year plan didn't exactly work, but I honestly think with another year or two this team is going to be a serious contender.
I like what Huntington has done. He's made his mistakes and has wasted some draft picks, but you won't find too many teams that haven't had their share of that as well. It's really hard to pick players that can make it to the big leagues and be consistently productive. Not that that's an excuse for a GM to be bad at his job, but you can't blame Huntington for all the bad things that have happened recently.
Kyle Stark keeping his job is something that I really don't have an opinion on. I know very little about that job description or what he actually does (I'm being brutally honest here). The whole NAVY SEALs thing is going away, which is kind of funny to me. Stark has been implementing this thing and nobody even really knew about it until the collapse happened. To me it wasn't a big deal at all. It lasted a few days and didn't seem like anything that had anything but a positive impact, but again I could be wrong. I can say this though, if the collapse didn't happen it would still be going on.
The question I want to raise here is who would replace these guys? It's not like there's capable MLB GM's and scout directors just lined up waiting for jobs. Huntington and Stark have jobs for a reason, and if they were obviously worse than somebody that's unemployed, why would they be here in the first place? I'm not saying that there aren't better options out there, because I'm sure there is, somewhere. I just don't know how easy it would be to replace them, and if it's really a good idea to do it at this stage. The team has been improving in recent years so why mess with it now? We have a team that looks pretty solid on paper for 2013, let Huntington and company have a chance to finish what they started.
If you think I'm completely wrong and you disagree with Nutting's decision to keep everyone around, I won't even argue with you. Keep the peace Pittsburgh.
As you probably know, today Bob Nutting spoke with the media and told everybody that the front office will be maintained. There's been posts written about this all over Pirates blogs, so check those out for some more analysis, because what I'm going to give you now certainly won't be enough.
Basically, I'm down with keeping the guys around. You can certainly argue it either way, but from what I can tell, Neil Huntington and company have done a pretty good job since they've taken over. When he took the job, there was very little hope for the future; you can't say that anymore. The major league team is much, much better, and we have some real superstar caliber players in the minors. I wouldn't rank the Pirates very high up on the list of top farm systems in the game, but it has improved greatly, and there is still a bunch of young talent that will be on the 2013 Opening Day roster. Maybe you expected us to have been in this stage earlier, and you thought that by the time 2012 rolled around the Pirates would be a playoff team. They were nearly that last year, but a horrible collapse really turned things for the worse. The five year plan didn't exactly work, but I honestly think with another year or two this team is going to be a serious contender.
I like what Huntington has done. He's made his mistakes and has wasted some draft picks, but you won't find too many teams that haven't had their share of that as well. It's really hard to pick players that can make it to the big leagues and be consistently productive. Not that that's an excuse for a GM to be bad at his job, but you can't blame Huntington for all the bad things that have happened recently.
Kyle Stark keeping his job is something that I really don't have an opinion on. I know very little about that job description or what he actually does (I'm being brutally honest here). The whole NAVY SEALs thing is going away, which is kind of funny to me. Stark has been implementing this thing and nobody even really knew about it until the collapse happened. To me it wasn't a big deal at all. It lasted a few days and didn't seem like anything that had anything but a positive impact, but again I could be wrong. I can say this though, if the collapse didn't happen it would still be going on.
The question I want to raise here is who would replace these guys? It's not like there's capable MLB GM's and scout directors just lined up waiting for jobs. Huntington and Stark have jobs for a reason, and if they were obviously worse than somebody that's unemployed, why would they be here in the first place? I'm not saying that there aren't better options out there, because I'm sure there is, somewhere. I just don't know how easy it would be to replace them, and if it's really a good idea to do it at this stage. The team has been improving in recent years so why mess with it now? We have a team that looks pretty solid on paper for 2013, let Huntington and company have a chance to finish what they started.
If you think I'm completely wrong and you disagree with Nutting's decision to keep everyone around, I won't even argue with you. Keep the peace Pittsburgh.
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