2010 Forecast, Holidays Edition, Part 6

Well this is the final post of my 2010 forecast series, and today I will be attempting to project what the 2010 opening day bullpen will look like. I will almost surely be wrong, but I'll do my best.

• Starting Pitchers
• Catchers and First Basemen
• Second Basemen
• Shortstops and Third Basemen
• Outfielders

Bullpen:

• Joel Hanrahan:
  2009: 64.0 IP, 4.78 ERA, 10.1 SO/9, 4.8 BB/9
  Hanrahan is one of the 4 locks for the 2010 opening day bullpen. His 2009 numbers do little to show what kind of pitcher he is. Thanks to a lack of defense and a bunch of bad luck on the low-morale Washington Nationals, he was terrible. When he came to the Pirates, he pitched much, much better, posting a 1.72 ERA in 31.1 IP with a 10.6 SO/9 ratio. As of right now, Hanrahan is the Pirates 2010 closer, however there is a very good chance the Pirates will sign someone to compete with him for that job. The names that have brought up are Octavio Dotel and Kevin Gregg. It's really up in the air if they will sign either of those guys. While it could go either way, I'm leaning more towards the belief that they won't sign either of them, and Hanrahan will be the closer.
  2010 peak: 75 IP, 2.50 ERA, 11.0 SO/9, 3.5 BB/9, 45 SV
  2010 expectation: 75 IP, 3.50 ERA, 10.0 SO/9, 4.3 BB/9, 30 SV


• Evan Meek:
  2009: 47.0 IP, 3.45 ERA, 8.0 SO/9, 5.6 BB/9
  Meek is the Pirates 2nd option for their closer job, assuming they don't sign someone else. He is a young gun who just keeps getting better. At times he is unhittable, although he still does have some control issues to work out. As of right now, the 8th inning is all his and I'm expecting big things out of him. If Hanrahan goes down or struggles, I would be perfectly comfortable with Meek closing games out.
  2010 peak: 80 IP, 2.75 ERA, 9.5 SO/9, 4.0 BB/9
  2010 expectation: 80 IP, 3.60 ERA, 8.5 SO/9, 5.0 BB/9


• Javier Lopez:
  2009 (AAA): 39.2 IP, 3.18 ERA, 8.1 SO/9, 2.9 BB/9
  Lopez is the newest Pirate and will have a big impact on how the team fairs next season. He is a veteran left handed reliever who pitched awful in the short time he had with the Red Sox last year, but had a pretty solid stay in AAA Pawtucket. The Red Sox did not resign him and now he's a bucco. Lopez is a middle reliever with great control who can also strike out some batters. If he has the right attitude, he should be successful and help the Pirates on and off the field.
  2010 peak: 70 IP, 3.90 ERA, 8.5 SO/9, 3.0 BB/9
  2010 expectation: 50 IP, 4.35 ERA, 7.0 SO/9, 3.5 BB/9


• Chris Jakubauskas:
  2009: 93.0 IP, 5.32 ERA, 4.5 SO/9, 2.6 BB/9
  Jakubauskas is another arm the Pirates added this offseason, and will almost surely be on the opening day roster. He started 8 games for the Mariners last year, but those days are behind him and he will be a middle relief option for the Pirates. His best pitch is his curveball, which is filthy. Other than that he is nothing too special. The strikeout rate speaks for itself, and while I think it will definitely improve this year, I don't see it being anywhere near that of Meek or Hanrahan. Jakubauskas is 31 years old, but still has some potential. He was a good signing for the Pirates, but I'm not expecting anything amazing out of him.
  2010 peak: 60 IP, 4.00 ERA, 6.0 SO/9, 3.0 BB/9
  2010 expectation: 45 IP, 5.00 ERA, 5.0 SO/9, 3.5 BB/9


• Steven Jackson:
  2009: 43.0 IP, 3.14 ERA, 4.4 SO/9, 4.6 BB/9
  Jackson is a tough man to project. When he first came up to Pittsburgh last year he was very effective at getting batters out. He didn't blow anyone away or cause any huge excitement, but he posted good numbers. He got lit up in an August 6th game against the Diamondbacks, raising his ERA from 3.05 to 4.37. He pitched well the rest of the season and brought it back down into the low 3's. Jackson looks solid, but I seriously doubt he will be posting an ERA anywhere near 3.14 again.
  2010 peak: 50 IP, 3.25 ERA, 5.0 SO/9, 4.0 BB/9
  2010 expectation: 50 IP, 4.25 ERA, 3.0 SO/9, 4.5 BB/9


• Kevin Hart:
  2009: 81.0 IP, 4.55 ERA, 5.8 SO/9, 4.9 BB/9
  Hart was a starter for most of his 2009 season, making 14 starts and 4 relief appearances. He pitched well for the Cubs, but after his trade to the Pirates he did not do so well. He's another guy without much of anything stuff-wise. He is at his best when he locates the ball, which he struggled doing last year. He will be in competition with Daniel McCutchen in spring training for a starting job. If he doesn't get that job, there is no guarantees he will be in Pittsburgh for opening day. The team might still want to try him as a starter and leave him in AAA to get starts there. Since the Pirates only real long-relief option in the bullpen is Jakubauskas, who is unproven, I think the Pirates will be forced to have either Hart or Karstens on the 25 man roster for our starter's early-exit situations. The Pirates have already shown that they don't really care for Karstens, as they DFA'd him in November, so my guess is Hart will get the nod.
  2010 peak: 60 IP, 3.75 ERA, 6.0 SO/9, 3.5 BB/9
  2010 expectation: 60 IP, 5.15 ERA, 4.5 SO/9, 4.7 BB/9

The other guys that will most seriously compete for big league jobs in spring training are Jeff Karstens, Ramon Aguero, Wil Ledezma. Another name that might come into your head is Jose Ascanio, who the Pirates acquired in the John Grabow trade last year. Ascanio pitched well for the Pirates in 2009, however suffered a torn labrum and had correctional surgery in October. That's a tough injury to come back from, and there is a good chance we won't see him in Pittsburgh at all in 2010.


So to recap, here's my prediction for what the 2010 Opening Day 25-man roster will look like.

2010 Forecast, Holidays Edition, Part 5

After slacking for a couple days, I'm back with part 5. Today I'm going to cover the outfield, and the last edition will be the bullpen, which is by far the hardest to project. Be sure to check out the first 4 parts, if you haven't already.

• Starting Pitchers
• Catchers and First Basemen
• Second Basemen
• Shortstops and Third Basemen

Left Field:

• Lastings Milledge:
  2009: 65 G, 74 R, .279 AVG, 4 HR, 21 RBI
  Lastings Milledge was the main proponent in the trade that sent Nyjer Morgan to Washington, and he didn't disappoint. There were many questions about his attitude and everything that came with him off the field, but Lastings quickly silenced those issues. He was more professional and worked harder than anyone expected him too, and that translated into him getting to the majors quickly and putting up good numbers when he got there. He is happy to be a Pirate and he will be a part of this team for a long time. He has not reached anywhere near his peak, and I believe he will continue to take strides towards it. Pittsburgh's own ocho-cinco is here to stay folks.
  2010 peak: 155 G, .320 AVG, 100 R, 25 HR, 90 RBI
  2010 expectation: 150 G, .285 AVG, 90 R, 15 HR, 80 RBI

Center Field

• Andrew McCutchen:
  2009: 108 G, .286 AVG, 12 HR, 54 RBI, 22 SB
  The best thing about being a Pirates fan? Watching Andrew McCutchen play every night. People were angry when Nate McLouth was traded to Atlanta, but McCutchen stepped in, played great, and quickly became a fan favorite. He is the definition of a 5 tool player. He hits for power, with a very impressive .471 slugging percentage for the 5'11'' lead off hitter. He hits for average, and was especially impressive in late-game situations. However, the thing that makes him most valuable are his legs. He can cover more ground in center field than anyone in the league, he can steal bases with the best of them, and his excitement factor makes the fans want to come out to the ballpark. He is the franchise, and half of the inspiration of this blog's name.
  2010 peak: 160 G, .330 AVG, 25 HR, 80 RBI, 60 SB
  2010 expectation: 155 G, .310 AVG, 18 HR, 65 RBI, 45 SB
• John Raynor:
  2009 (minors): 123 G, .257 AVG, 6 HR, 36 RBI, 19 SB
  Raynor was the Pirates 2009 Rule 5 Draft pick, coming over from the Florida Marlins. Raynor is a good prospect, but was the odd man out in the Marlins stacked system. The Pirates swooped in and picked him up, and he will have to be on the Pirates 25-man roster all year if they want to keep him. Raynor has outstanding speed, and a little bit of power as well. His obvious position is centerfield, but he isn't likely to get much playing time there this season. Look for him to get most of his looks in left field, but I don't expect him to get many starts this year.
  2010 peak: 60 G, .270 AVG, 5 HR, 50 RBI, 30 SB
  2010 expectation: 35 G, .245 AVG, 1 HR, 15 RBI, 15 SB

Right Field:

• Garrett Jones:
  2009: 82 G, .293, 21 HR, 44 RBI
  Well I already talked about Jones as the back-up first basemen, so there isn't much else to say. Jones will start the year as the every day right fielder, and will stay there until at least until Jose Tabata is ready to join the big league squad. If you want to read more about Jones, check out part 2 of the series.
  2010 peak: 155 G, .300 AVG, 40 HR, 120 RBI
  2010 expectation: 145 G, .265 AVG, 20 HR, 80 RBI
• Brandon Moss:
  2009: 133 G, .236 AVG, 7 HR, 41 RBI
  Brandon Moss was a reason to look forward to 2009, but he eventually became more of a reason not to watch. He was expected to be one of our biggest power bats, which he certainly was not, going his first 27 games without a homer (his 2nd didn't come until game 67). While he was a big disappointment at the plate, his played fantastic defense. However, that is not good enough to keep the starting job at a corner outfield spot. Unfortunately, Moss has no more options and will be on the 25 man roster until they finally just cut him, which I expect to happen around mid season.
  2010 peak: 60 G, .260 AVG, 12 HR, 60 RBI
  2010 expectation: 40 G, .240 AVG, 3 HR, 20 RBI

So there's what I think the outfield will look like. Honestly there aren't too many other options. Those 5 are shoe-ins to make the opening day roster, but there exists a very, very small chance that Jose Tabata will make the team out of spring training, but he would have to hit like .600 in March to even be considered for it. I'll be back later with the bullpen, which should be interesting.

2010 Forecast, Holidays Edition, Part 4

Here we are, two days after Christmas, and pressing towards the new year. I hope everyone had a safe and relaxing holiday. Now, it's time to get back to business - Pirates baseball. Today we'll be talking about the left side of the 2010 Pirates' infield, the shortstops and the third basemen. Here's the links to the previous posts:

• Starting Pitchers
• Catchers and First Basemen
• Second basemen

Shortstops:

• Bobby Crosby:
  2009: 97 G, .223 AVG, 6 HR, 29 RBI
  Crosby was another offseason addition for the Pirates. He has been brought in to compete for the starting job at shortstop, a void which the Pirates have needed to fill since they traded Jack Wilson. As you can see, Crosby is by no means a guy who can hit for good average. In fact, he is not much at the plate in any category. In his rookie season he showed a lot of power and belted 22 bombs, but he hasn't hit more than 9 in a season since. There is absolutely no reason to believe that that power will come back to Crosby this year, although there is hope that he can hit for higher than a .220 average.
  2010 peak: 140 G, .250 AVG, 15 HR, 50 RBI
  2010 expectation: 120 G, .235 AVG, 7 HR, 35 RBI


• Ronny Cedeno:
  2009: 105 G, .208 AVG, 10 HR, 38 RBI
  While you probably thought it couldn't get any worse at the plate than Crosby, Ronny Cedeno's numbers show up. Despite being somewhat reliable at the plate for the Pirates in his first month or so with the club, everything evened out and he finished the year with that dismal .208 average. He showed a little bit of pop hitting those 10 homers, 5 of which were for the Pirates in his 46 games with us. He is younger than Crosby, and therefore has more upside, however no one really expects him to surprise anyone any time soon, including me. My bet is that he loses one of the most discouraging position battles in history to Crosby and sits the bench most of the year, filling in for Crosby once every week or 2.
  2010 peak: 140 G, .250 AVG, 12 HR, 40 RBI
  2010 expectation: 65 G, .220 AVG, 3 HR, 25 RBI

I included Ramon Vazquez in my 2nd base talks, and the same thing applies here. If Vazquez makes the team out of spring training (my guess is that he won't), he will be the emergency option at short stop. If Crosby or Cedeno get hurt, it would sure be nice to have Vazquez there to be the back up, instead of the BB word.

Third Basemen:

• Andy LaRoche:
  2009: 150 G, .258 AVG, 12 HR, 64 RBI
  Sadly enough, Andy LaRoche was one of the bright spots for the 2009 Pirates. He led the team in RBIs (which is absolutely pathetic), and was probably our best defender. There is high hopes for LaRoche, who at the age of 27 has a pretty high ceiling. However, there is pressure behind him with #1 prospect Pedro Alvarez looming in the minor leagues. LaRoche is going to have hit the ball well early and often in 2010 if he wants to lock up a job with the Pirates in the future. There have also been talks of him moving to 2nd base, but the Pirates temporarily silenced those talks with the signing of Iwamura. LaRoche disappointed Pirates fan at the plate for most of the 2009 season, but he gave us some hope by finishing the year with a .313 September/October batting average with 5 of his home runs coming in those 27 games. The future will be greatly affected by Andy's first 2-3 months of performance in 2010.
  2010 peak: 155 G, .300 AVG, 20 HR, 90 RBI
  2010 expectation: 125 G, .275 AVG, 12 HR, 65 RBI


• Neil Walker:
  2009: 17 G, .194 AVG, 0 HR, 0 RBI
  Walker was once a Pirates #1 prospect, however now, he is looking more like a career AAA player. His many struggles in the minors kept him down there for longer than anyone expected, and so far he has been of no good to the Pirates organization. However, there is still time with Walker. You really can't do any judging on his big league performance with only 40 plate appearances under his belt, and he is still young at the age of 24. There is very little chance that he will get another real chance to prove himself in the major leagues, however. Andy LaRoche will get all the starts at third until they are ready to give Alvarez the job (possibly mid-season). Walker's only chance at regular playing time will be an injury to LaRoche or maybe Iwamura. I do think he will be the back up at the beginning of the season though, I don't see any use of sending him back to Indianapolis, and who knows, he could turn out to be a good bench player. He has a very good glove and he has power potential. I'm not writing him off quite yet, but he sure is starting to look like an official wasted draft pick.
  2010 peak: 50 G, .250 AVG, 5 HR, 30 RBI
  2010 expectation: 25 G, .210 AVG, 2 HR, 15 RBI

As for any options at third, there is nothing I haven't already covered. Vazquez is also an option here, which may be the only reason he makes the team, and Alvarez is the future (pending a move to first base). I see Andy playing every game until Alvarez comes up, probably in early July, and then Pedro starting the rest of the games from there on out. Now, if LaRoche plays well and earns himself a job, I don't know what's going to happen. Let's just hope we have that problem come June.


That's it for now, I'll be back tomorrow some time with some outfielders.

2010 Forecast, Holidays Edition, Part 3

So far in this series we've covered starting pitchers, catchers, and first basemen. That means that tonight it's time to cover the middle infield. For the last couple years, there were very few question marks at these positions, as Freddy Sanchez and Jack Wilson had the 4 and 6 locked down as one of the best double play combinations in the National League. However, they were both traded last July and now the Pirates have a whole mess of options to fill the voids. Let's get to it, here's how I think the 2010 Opening Day roster will look in terms of middle infield, accompanied with the peaks and expectations.

Second Basemen:

• Akinori Iwamura:
  2009: 69 G, .290 AVG, 1 HR, 22 RBI, 9 SB
  Iwamura was an offseason addition for the Pirates, coming over in a trade that sent Jesse Chavez to Tampa Bay (Jesse has since been traded to Atlanta). Iwamura is a solid player. He plays great defense, hits for solid average, and can steal some bases when you need him to. There is nothing super about him, but he is one of those guys you can count on to play well when you need him to. He missed a lot of last year due to injury, but those numbers he put up in his time on the field were very impressive. If he can keep those paces up, he could become one of the Pirates' best players (which probably isn't saying too much).
  2010 peak: 155 G, .295 AVG, 7 HR, 60 RBI
  2010 expectation: 145 G, .280 AVG, 3 HR, 45 RBI


• Delwyn Young:
  124 G, .266 AVG, 7 HR, 43 RBI
  Delwyn Young was one of the few pleasant surprises on the 2009 Pirates. They got him in a trade with the Dodgers, and he came over and played some solid baseball with the Pirates. His defense was below average everywhere he played, which is really why the signing of Iwamura happened, but he was really solid with the bat. His average was over .300 for a good part of the season, but he struggled mightily down the stretch and his numbers fell fast. He showed some pop, and showed that he can get hits in big situations, which led the Pirates to giving him a chance to show his worth at being the every day second baseman at the end of the year. The test failed, and Delwyn's struggles at the plate, and especially in the field, left him to be looked at as only a bench player. He will back up Iwamura this year, and will most likely be the Pirates primary pinch hitter in 2010. He bats switch, so matchups don't really matter with him. He is a solid player to have on the roster and I'm expecting good things from him this year.
  2010 peak: 100 G, .285 AVG, 12 HR, 45 RBI
  2010 expectation: 60 G, .275 AVG, 4 HR, 30 RBI

The other guy the Pirates have that can play second base is Ramon Vazquez. Vazquez signed with the Pirates last offseason and did not do too much to impress anybody last year. He hit .230 with only 16 RBI in his 204 at bats. He is a good guy to have on the roster for utility purposes, he can play a number of positions, however I'm not sure if he will be on the roster next season. He is currently on the active roster, and he isn't a guy who is going to play at all in the minor leagues, so if the Pirates don't cut him this offseason or in spring training, he will be a bench player for the Pirates. I would be sort of surprised to see him in a Pirates uniform next year, but there's probably something obvious that I don't know here.


Anyways that took a lot longer than I expected and I gotta wrap it up. I'll be back tomorrow night with short stops and third basemen (or maybe just shortstops).

2010 Forecast, Holidays Edition, Part 2

In part 1 of this series I looked at the starting rotation for the 2010 Pittsburgh Pirates. Right now it is Christmas Eve, and it will very likely be Christmas by the time I post this, so first I would like to wish everyone a happy and safe Christmas. While most people are out thinking about gifts, family, travel, and other holiday-related things, I'm thinking about baseball. I'm pretty sure that's a bad thing... but we'll just go with it.

Today we're gonna take a look at the 2010 Pirates projected opening day catchers and first base options. So, let's go!


Catchers:

• Ryan Doumit:
  2009: 75 G, .250 AVG, 10 HR, 38 RBI
  Doumit's season was greatly shortened by injury last year, but he did okay with the time he was with the Bucs. Ryan is one of the league's most intriguing offensive catchers when he is healthy, which is not very often. If it weren't for that injury he suffered last year, there was a good chance he would have been dealt at the deadline, or already this offseason. The Pirates have looked into trading him, but they haven't pulled the trigger because the offers they are getting aren't nearly good enough, and you can't blame other teams for that because who wants to give up a whole bunch for a catcher that has shown that he can't stay on the field for more than 3 months at a time. Assuming the Pirates don't receive a surprise overwhelming trade offer this offseason, Doumit will go into the 2010 season as the Pirates every day starting catcher, but will most likely not finish the season there. If he performs well, my guess is he will be dealt mid-season. If he gets hurt again, then who knows what will happen with him. The Pirates' have top 5 prospect Tony Sanchez ready to take over the job in the next few years, so Doumit's future with the Pirates should be short.
  2010 peak: 140 G, .280 AVG, 25 HR, 85 RBI
  2010 expectation: 90 G, .265 AVG, 13 HR, 50 RBI (traded away in July)


• Jason Jaramillo:
  2009: 63 G, .252 AVG, 3 HR, 26 RBI
  Jaramillo played surprisingly well in his time filling in for the injured Ryan Doumit. In fact, he and his fellow backstop, Robinzon Diaz hit for a higher OPS than Doumit's career average in those months. The reason Jaramillo got the nod over Diaz out of spring training was because of his defense. He is very solid behind the plate and can call a good game. He doesn't have much of a stick, but he did show the ability to hit in pressure situations. All-in-all, I would be content with Jaramillo as the starter this year if Doumit gets dealt.
  2010 peak: 90 G, .270 AVG, 10 HR, 55 RBI
  2010 expectation: 50 G, .260 AVG, 5 HR, 40 RBI
  

The third option for the Pirates at catcher is Eric Kratz. Kratz his .273 with 11 bombs last year with Indianapolis. He's 30 years old and really doesn't look like he will ever be a big league starter. However, in the event of a Doumit trade or injury, Kratz will be the guy there to back up Jaramillo.

First Basemen:

• Jeff Clement:
  2009 (with two AAA teams): 119 G, .274 AVG, 21 HR, 90 RBI
  Clement is one of the keys to the Pirates successes this year. He was acquired in the trade that sent Jack Wilson and Ian Snell to Seattle, and was the main piece in that trade. He is a former #1 overall prospect, but was shipped away so freely because of his lack of ability to play the catcher position well. The Pirates quickly made him a first baseman and now they are looking to give him a serious look as a big league first basemen. There's no telling what could happen here, and if he doesn't play well he could soon lose his job to the Pirates current #1 prospect, Pedro Alvarez (who probably isn't going to play any first base this year, but possibly in the future). I honestly believe that if Clement performs well, like really well, the Pirates could be competitive this year. He is one of the main keys to the 2010 squad.
  2010 peak: 150 G, .290 AVG, 35 HR, 110 RBI
  2010 expectation: 135 G, .270 AVG, 17 HR, 85 RBI


• Garrett Jones:
  2009: 82 G, .293, 21 HR, 44 RBI
  There was no bigger surprise on the 2009 Pirates than Garrett Jones. He came up from Indianapolis on the first day of July and was the Pirates best hitter from there on. The average, the power, the defense, it was all there. He was one of the best players in the National League the second half of the year. The only problem is, he is 28 years old and was never regarded as a potential big time player, which shows that he will most likely not perform that way again. However, the Pirates are excited about him and think he can be the Pirates' main power guy next season. With Jeff Clement in place at first, Jones will be the every day right fielder at the beginning of the year, but he is no doubt the back up first base man. If Clement were to get hurt or underperform drastically in his first couple months, Jones would move from right to first and one of the Pirates outfield options would fill in in right field (hopefully Jose Tabata).
  2010 peak: 155 G, .300 AVG, 40 HR, 120 RBI
  2010 expectation: 145 G, .265 AVG, 20 HR, 80 RBI

The other guys that we could be seeing play first base for the Pirates in 2010 are Steve Pearce and the aforementioned Pedro Alvarez (although like I said it is very unlikely that he will play first in 2010). Pearce got his chance at grabbing the starting job last year with the Pirates when they gave him the final 2 months of the season there to show what he had, and he sure didn't show much. He hit .203 with only 3 HR and 15 RBI in 43 games between August 1st and the end of the season. Those numbers were bad enough to earn him a spot in AAA at the beginning of 2010. As of right now, he is still the #3 first baseman in the organization, but there have been talks of the Pirates signing a utility man that could fill in at first (i.e. Hank Blalock), but I don't really expect that too happen. Here's hoping Clement and Jones stay healthy and perform well enough to keep Pearce out of the bigs this year.

So there's your catchers and first basemen. My computer battery is now on it's last few minutes of life, so now is the time to say goodnight, and Merry Christmas to all!

2010 Forecast, Holidays Edition, Part 1

While most of my fellow bloggers are using this holiday season to look backwards at the happenings of this passing decade, I am looking forward to the beginning of next decade. I am kicking off a 4 or 5 part mini series where I will be taking a look at how the 2010 opening day 25 man roster will look, and what the expectations and ceilings will be for the players I mention. Let's get to it, we'll start at the #1 spot (for you scorekeepers out there), the starting pitchers.

Starting Pitchers:

• Zach Duke:
  2009: 32 GS, 11-16, 4.06 ERA, 2.16 SO/BB
  Duke was the Pirates' most consistent pitcher in 2009. He was the victim of the Pirates' anemic offense, and certainly did not deserve anything close to 16 losses last year. Duke's season was definitely unexpected, but at at 26, I see no reason to believe he can't put up similar numbers are next year, but I don't really expect it.
  2010 peak: 33 GS, 14-9, 3.90 ERA, 2.25 SO/BB
  2010 expectation: 30 GS, 10-10, 4.25 ERA, 2.10 SO/BB
• Paul Maholm:
  2009: 31 GS, 8-9, 4.44 ERA, 1.98 SO/BB
  Maholm was the Pirates opening day starter in 2009, but I'm guessing he will be the #2 guy this year. He is the Pirates best strikeout pitcher and is at his best when he has the great control that we've seen he is capable of having. Paul is only 27, and should be successful for the Pirates again in 2010.
  2010 peak: 33 GS, 16-9, 3.75 ERA, 2.40 SO/BB
  2010 expectation: 32 GS, 10-8, 4.10 ERA, 2.20 SO/BB
• Ross Ohlendorf:
  2009: 29 GS, 11-10, 3.92 ERA, 2.06 SO/BB
  Ross the Boss was one of the big surprises of 2009 for the Pirates. He pitched fantastically almost all year, and especially down the stretch. He put up 176.2 strong innings for the Bucs, and definitely took some pressure off of the bullpen. The most exciting part of all of this is that his velocity and movement appeared to increase as the year went on. There were times Ohlendorf clocked in at 96 and 97 on the radar gun. He's 27 and has some a lot of upside. At worth he'll be the Pirates #3 starter, and heck, I would feel fine with him as our ace.
  2010 peak: 33 GS, 15-11, 3.75 ERA, 2.35 SO/BB
  2010 expectation: 32 GS, 14-13 3.95 ERA, 2.15 SO/BB
• Charlie Morton:
  2009: 18 GS, 5-9, 4.55 ERA, 1.55 SO/BB
  Morton came to the Pirates in the Nate McLouth deal, and was very inconsistent. He, like Maholm and Ohlendorf, is 27 years old, but is a lot less mature and has a lot less experience than those two. Morton was very impressive at times in 2009, but more often than not he was wild and not very efficient. He might have the best stuff of any of the Pirates' starters, but really doesn't know how to use it well enough to be a top of the rotation starter, yet. He has some work to do with his mechanics, and that could result in injury. He does have a high ceiling, but I don't really see him reaching anywhere near it next season.
  2010 peak: 33 GS, 17-9, 3.55 ERA, 2.10 SO/BB
  2010 expectation: 25 GS, 8-14, 4.45 ERA, 1.75 SO/BB
• Daniel McCutchen:
  2009: 6 GS, 4.21 ERA, 1.73 SO/BB
  The top 4 in the rotation are set for 2010, but you can't say that for the 5 spot. Unless the Pirates make a big free-agent signing (Justin Duscherer for example), there will be spring training competition between Daniel McCutchen and Kevin Hart, fighting for this spot. While I don't particularly care for either of those pitchers, I like McCutchen better than Hart. Neither of them have very good stuff, but both have shown they are capable in the big leagues as end of the rotation starters. While I won't be expecting McCutchen to be anything more than a 5 starter, I do expect him to win some ball games for the Pirates. He is also 27 years old but had no big league experience before last year. Even if he does win the gig, he will most likely lose it at some point to Brad Lincoln, one of the Pirates' top prospects.
  2010 peak: 25 GS, 7-5, 4.20 ERA, 1.90 SO/BB
  2010 expectation: 15 GS, 3-6, 5.10 ERA, 1.70 SO/BB
  

So there's my starting pitchers for the first 5 games of the 2010 season. Like I said, there is a chance that Kevin Hart will beat out McCutchen for the 5 spot, and there is also an outside chance that Brad Lincoln will make the club out of spring training (although that would take an amazing spring training for Brad). Either way, I see Lincoln making his debut in 2010, and barring an injury, that will be at the expense of the #5 starter. The Pirates have also been looking into making some free agent signings to compete for a rotation spot, although they aren't making it a priority. Recent developments show that is very unlikely that the Pirates will sign Justin Duscherer, and there really haven't been any serious names mentioned. We still have over 2 months until pitchers and catchers report, so this whole picture could look different by then. I'll be back tomorrow with a look at catchers and first basemen for the Pirates in 2010.

New Closer In Town?

The Pirates recent loss of Matt Capps' led all Pirate fans to expect Joel Hanrahan to be the closer in 2010. Apparently, that's not good enough for Neil Huntington and company. NBC Sports reports that the Pirates made an offer to Octavio Dotel and want him to be the closer. The offer is reportedly worth 3 million, with extra incentives for more money based on performance.

This certainly came as a surprise to me, not that the Pirates were offering Dotel a contract, but that they would crown him closer this early. I fully expected Hanrahan to be given a chance regardless of who they signed. My guess is that they are offering Dotel the closer job just to up their chances of signing him. I can't say I completely agree with this move, but I can definitely see the positives.

Dotel spent his last two seasons with the Chicago White Sox in a set-up role. Last year Dotel pitched 62.1 innings and posted a 3.32 ERA. He had a beautiful K/9 rate at 10.8, however he was a little wild with a 5.2 BB/9 rate.

While the ERA and strikeout rate are certainly closer-material, he hasn't consistently pitched in the 9th inning since 2007. He is a 37 year old veteran, so there is little doubt that he can handle the job mentally. He has 83 saves in his 11 seasons, with his highest total being 36 in 2004.

Despite possibly being unfair to Joel Hanrahan, the signing of Octavio Dotel could really strengthen the Pirates bullpen. Management sees a need there, and they are doing their best to fill it. Their are definitely bullpen options out there that the Pirates could get for less money, but 3 million is definitely reasonable for an established back-of-the-bullpen arm like Dotel.

Pirates Sign Jack Taschner

The Pirates added another left handed reliever to their roster this morning by signing former Phillie Jack Taschner.


Taschner was signed to a minor league deal, but will be on the opening day roster if he performs well in spring training. The left-handed arm is definitely advantageous for him as he tries to make the big league squad. Last year Taschner posted a 4.91 ERA in 29.1 innings with the Phillies. He will be 31 years old at season's start. His stuff isn't overwhelming, he throws in the low 90's and mixes in a changeup and a slider, but even so he is a solid addition to the Pirates, who are always looking to add more arms to their organization.


That's it for now, but check back later as I will take an early look at what the Pirates opening day roster will look like, and what some of my expectations will be for the 2010 season.

Pirates Sign Javier Lopez

Neil Huntington was so fed up with Ryan Doumit's antics last year, that he went out and signed 40-year old former Braves catcher Javy Lopez. That'll teach Ryan to be complain and not put out full effort.

Wait what? Oh Javier Lopez? Well that makes more sense.

The Pirates finally got some left handed pitching. Javier Lopez is 32 years old and spent the last 4 years of his career in Boston. Before that, he pitched 2.5 years with Colorado and a half year with Arizona.

He has put up some pretty good numbers in his career, none of which came last season. In 2006-2008, Lopez had a 2.70 ERA in 158 games (116 innings). He posted a 1.346 WHIP, 5.8 SO/9, 1.36 SO/BB, and 4.2 BB/9. Pretty solid numbers for a guy with average stuff.

Last year was a tough one for Lopez, he posted an ugly 9.26 ERA in his 11.2 innings, walking 9 batters while only striking out 5. His WHIP was an atrocious 2.486. That's a pretty small sample-size there, but it was enough for the Red Sox to demote him to AAA after just 2 months. Lopez pitched 39.2 innings in Pawtucket (the AAA affiliate of the Red Sox) and put up a decent ERA of 3.18.

All-in-all, Lopez is a good addition for the Pirates. He is capable of getting hitters out, especially lefties. For his career, left-handed batters are hitting .247 off him, with a very low .350 slugging percentage. Those numbers aren't the best in the league, but they are more than enough to help out a bullpen like the one the Pirates' have. He brings some experience to the team, and most importantly, the ability to the throw the ball with his left hand.

I'm very pleased with this move. Huntington went out and filled one of the voids the Pirates' had and didn't overpay. Lopez isn't a top-tier pitcher by any means, but that's really not that important when you are talking about relief pitchers (as shown by Tim's most recent posts over at buccofans.com). I expect him to put up solid numbers next season and help the bullpen out tremendously.

Winter Ball Update, Clement's Situation

Jennifer Langosch made a post this morning updating us on how some of the Pirates' notable names are fairing in winter ball. Here's the deets:

• Brian Bixler (Mexico): 35 G, .300 BA, 5 2B, 5 HR, 12 RBI, 13 BB, 42 SO
  
• Ronny Cedeno (Venezuela): 33 G, .292 BA, 3 2B, 2 3B, 8 HR, 16 RBI
  
• Argenis Diaz (Venezuela): 43 G, .195 BA, 3 2B, 5 RBI, 9 BB, 23 SO
  
• Gorkys Hernandez (Venezuela): 33 G, .245 BA, 4 2B, 1 HR, 9 RBI
  
• Erik Kratz (Dominican Republic): 16 G, .065 BA, 1 2B, 4 RBI
  
• Starling Marte (Dominican Republic): 10 G, .333 BA, 2 SB
  
• Neil Walker (Venezuela): 34 G, .267 BA, 9 2B, 4 HR, 16 RBI
  
• Ramon Aguero (Dominican Republic): 14 G, 0-1, 14 IP, 5 ER, 7 BB, 15 K
  
• Wilfredo Ledezma (Venezuela): 9 G, 2-3, 40 IP, 22 ER, 16 BB, 31 K
  
• Jean Machi (Venezuela): 28 G, 2-0, 33 IP, 5 ER, 5 BB, 24 K, 15 SV
  
• R.J. Rodriguez (Puerto Rico): 11 G, 1-0, 12 IP, 6 ER, 2 BB, 7 K, 2 SV
  
• Ronald Uviedo (Venezuela): 19 G, 2-0, 21.2 IP, 7 ER, 6 BB, 23 K
  

Nothing too surprising there. Brian Bixler just continues to play well when it matters least, and news flash, Argenis Diaz still can't hit. Cedeno's numbers are impressive and a good sign for the Pirates. Unfortunately, Gorkys Hernandez continues to underperform, and saying Eric Kratz is underperforming would be an understatement. The pitchers are all performing pretty well, nothing spectacular but solid.

Moving on now, Dejan Kovacevic of the Post-Gazzette made a post involving Jeff Clement this morning. Basically what the piece says is that the Pirates are going to have Clement starting at first base when the season starts, and he will stay there AT LEAST until Tabata and/or Alvarez are ready to come up. They really want to give him a good look; everyone was really impressed and encouraged with his performance at the plate last year in Indianapolis. This means that the only real competition for a starting job will be at shortstop between Ronny Cedeno and Bobby Crosby. Should be interesting.

Have a great day America!

Pirates Talk With Kelly Johnson

If you thought the additions of Akinori Iwamura and Bobby Crosby were enough to stop the Bucs from pursuing further middle infield help, you were wrong.

The Pirates are in serious talks with Kelly Johnson, who has been recently non-tendered by the Atlanta Braves. Johnson does not only play middle infield, he can also play in the corners of the outfield, which is why the Pirates are interested.

Johnson will be 28 at season's start, and is coming off a down season in 2009, as he hit .224/.303/.389 with 8 homers and 29 RBI. In 2008, Johnson hit .287/.349/.446 with 12 homers and 69 RBI, so he is definitely not incapable with the bat. There is a good chance that 2009 was just a fluke and he could bounce back and help the bucs offensively.

Defensively, he hasn't played in the outfield since 2005. As a secondbaseman, he is about as average as they come. His WAR (wins above replacement) last year was 0.7, and is RAR (runs above replacement) was 7.0, neither number is anywhere near good enough for him to compete with the likes of Akinori Iwamura in the infield.

The Pirates would use Johnson as a bench player who would play left or right field on occasion. Like I said, he hasn't played the outfield recently enough to get any kind of measure of how effective he is out there, but there seems to be no real question that he is capable enough to handle a start or two a week.

As far as money goes, Johnson made $2.825 million last year, so I wouldn't expect the Pirates to pay more than $3 million for him (we would be looking a 1 year deal, 2 years at the most).

The other question that this brings is if the Pirates are giving up on signing Rick Ankiel. No progress has been made and it's seeming less and less likely that Ankiel will wear a Pirates uniform next spring. The advantage of signing Johnson over Ankiel would be the expectations. Johnson understands that if he gets signed it's going to be for a utility job. Ankiel wants a chance to re-establish himself as a major league outfielder and make some money next season, which the Pirates really can't offer him with Jose Tabata lurking in Indianapolis.

Is Rick Ankiel a better player than Kelly Johnson? Absolutely.
Is Rick Ankiel a better fit for the 2010 Pirates than Kelly Johnson? I'm afraid not.

Rumors - Everett, Crosby, Maholm, Duke

It seems every day we get a lead about a new player the Pirates are showing interest in. In the last few days, the following has happened:

• The Pirates have expressed interest in shortstops Bobby Crosby and Adam Everett. This furthers the idea that the Pirates are not happy with Ronny Cedeno being their only option at shortstop, which is a relief to here. The last thing any Pirates fan wants to see in 2010 is Brian Bixler's face in Pittsburgh again. Bobby Crosby won the rookie of the year award in 2004, but has not done much since then. In his 7 seasons with the Athletics, he has hit .238 with 61 home runs (22 of which coming in that 2004 season) and 34 stolen bases. His defense is above average but nothing to get too excited about. Those '04 numbers show some upside, but I don't think anyone expects him to do anything like that again. As for Adam Everett, he will be 33 at the seasons beginning. Age does not really matter here, if the Pirates sign a shortstop, it will almost certain be to a 1 or 2 year deal. Everett is a defensive specialist who is very experienced and a great locker room presence. Like Crosby, he hits for a very low average (.238 last year and .245 lifetime). Unlike Crosby, he has very little power. He has hit less than 4 home runs each season since 2006. He would basically be a Jack Wilson who hits for a slightly lower average. I would definitely be happy with signing one of these guys, as the competition could create some motivation for Ronny Cedeno (who showed us all what he is capable of last year), and get some good veteran leadership in the clubhouse.


• The Pirates have gotten some other teams expressing interest in Paul Maholm and Zach Duke. However, the Pirates have said they are not looking to deal either player, but they would make a trade if the return is good enough. Teams that have shown interest are the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Milwaukee Brewers. I don't expect either pitcher to be traded, but if the return is good enough and the Pirates can sign someone like Justin Duscherer, I think the trade could be extremely beneficial.


• In other news, the Pirates signed right hander Vinnie Chulk off of waivers from the Cleveland Indians. Chulk only pitched 12 major league innings last year, and 21.2 in AAA. Nothing to take note of here, just adding to the minor league arsenal, I wouldn't expect to see Chulk in the majors for anything other than to fill a gap left by a trade or an injury.
  

Offseason Update

A lot of stuff has been happening in the few days since my last update. We are seeing the Pirates name in a lot of offseason discussion this year, which is really exciting to see. Here is the list of the players the Pirates have (publicly) shown interest in:

• We'll start with the people I have already talked about in the last couple weeks, Hank Blalock, Rick Ankiel, and Mike Gonzalez.


• Justin Duscherer, RHP - Duscherer is 32 years old and missed the entire 2009 season due to hip and elbow surgery. He broke out in 2008 with the Oakland Athletics going 10-8 with a 2.54 ERA with 6 K's/9. His career ERA is 3.14 with almost all of his innings before 2008 coming from bullpen appearances. Duscherer is someone I have personally expressed interest in in former posts. I think he could be an incredibly effective pitcher for the Pirates and would come at an affordable price.


• Jamey Wright, RHP - a pretty common baseball name here. Wright is 35 years old and has been with 4 different teams in the last 5 years. Last year he pitched 79 innings with the Royals, all out of the bullpen, posting a 4.33 ERA with a pretty discouraging walk rate. The reason the Pirates are looking towards Wright is for veteran leadership. The Pirates are far and away the youngest team in the major leagues, and do not have a starting pitcher over the age of 27. While Wright probably would not put up very great numbers with the bucs, he could definitely help the younger guys mature and get better.


• J.J. Putz, RHP - A surprising name here. Putz was one of the game's best relievers 2 years ago when he pitched for the Mariners. That led to the Mets working hard to trade for him, hoping he and Francisco Rodriguez would be the keys to fixing their bullpen trouble. Putz got hurt and missed a lot of the 2009 season, compiling only 29.1 innings. He posted a 5.22 ERA in that time. He was very ineffective at times and was a real disappointment for the Mets. 2007 was the best season of Putz's career, when he racked up 40 saves while pitching 71.2 innings with a stellar 1.38 ERA. The issue here is money. Regardless of his performance last year, Putz is going to ask for big money. He is 32 years old right now, so he might not be as valuable in a Pirate uniform, but I definitely will not be complaining if they sign him (but don't count on it happening).


• Noah Lowry, LHP - This could be another solution to the Pirates problem of a lack of south paws. Lowry has been strictly a starting pitcher in his career, which makes me question why the Pirates are interested in him. It seemed to me that management was pretty set with their rotation for next season with Maholm, Duke, Morton, Ohlendorf, and Lincoln (a couple months into the season with McCutchen or Hart eating starts before he's ready). I guess it couldn't hurt to sign Lowry, and he could definitely help us out if he agrees to take a role in the bullpen. At age 29, he has been around for a couple more years than Maholm, so he could definitely provide some leadership. I'm really not for this one, but again, I probably won't complain if they sign him.