The Upton Effect

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The Pirates didn't make the playoffs. Dangit.

This is nothing new for me. The Pirates have not been in the playoffs since I was two years old, so the only kind of October I know is one where the Pirates don't play baseball.

Because of that, I have begun a trend of picking a new team to root for every postseason. Recently, that team has been the Tampa Bay Rays. Less recently, I have rooted for the Houston Astros, the Florida Marlins, and the Arizona Diamondbacks. I like the small market teams, what can I say?

This year, I have a big time favorite in both leagues. Both of them are mentioned above. The Rays and the Diamondbacks are my teams this year. I have been a fan of these teams for the last handful of years, so I don't feel terrible about sorta-kinda jumping on the bandwagon.

One of the biggest reasons I really like these two teams is the Upton brothers. My fantasy baseball team name a few years ago was "Third Upton Brother", which is stupid and senseless, but relevant nonetheless.

I have always had a fascination with siblings reaching the highest level of competition in their given sport, and these two have been near the top of the list of my favorite players since they broke into the league. There is just something about fast outfielders with power that gets to me.

Unfortunately, B.J. never really reached his potential. He was the number one overall prospect in baseball at one point, but hasn't been much more than a very inconsistent bat with some power. His defense and speed has kept him in the starting lineup, but he hasn't been what the Rays expected. You cannot say the same for Justin however, he is quickly turning into one of the games best hitters and all-around players. This postseason could be his coming out party, even though I think any somewhat serious baseball fan fully knows who this guy is already.

I'll be writing about these two teams extensively this postseason, so if you are with me on the bandwagons, check back and read. Let's go Upton.

Things Not Looking Good For Doumit

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It looks like Ryan Doumit has absolutely no desire to play baseball for the Pittsburgh Pirates next year, and really, why should he? He's been ripped to shreds seemingly every year he's been here and outside of the magical first-half run the Pirates had (which he was hardly a part of because of injury), he's never had any real hope of winning here.

Why do I say this? Well, Pirates beatwriter Rob Biertempfel tweeted this earlier in the week. Doumit says his chances of playing for the Pirates next year are "slim". That's the most honest I've ever heard a player be about that type of thing. Normally, you would just hear the old "well we'll see what happens, I love this organization and I can see myself here for the future..." BS answer, but Doumit tells it like it is.

I'm sure the guy is fed up with playing here. He was visibly upset in 2008 when his buddies Jack Wilson, Freddy Sanchez, and the rest of 'em were shipped out of here while he had to stay and endure the painful 2009 and 2010 seasons.

Doumit has every reason to want to leave Pittsburgh, and he's not going to mess around, telling us lies to give us hope that he'll stay. I know that not everyone is with me saying that they want him to stay, but I think more people like him now than ever before.

I still hope Doumit stays, but I realize it's not going to happen. I hope he finds a new team and finds success somewhere else, the guy deserves it.

2011 Final Pirates Offensive Sabermetrics

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Push on it to make it bigger... that's what she said

It's All Over

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Offseason posts start tomorrow...

188 days until the 2012 season opener...

Pirates Prospects Covering Fall Instructional League

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I like to think I write a pretty good blog, but I'm not dumb enough to think I compare in the least bit to PiratesProspects.com, which has quickly turned into the one-stop shop for everything Pirates. I'm sure most of you read it already, but you can rest assured that I will referencing their stuff all offseason long, starting right now. Here are two posts that kicked off Tim's coverage of the Fall Instructional League in Bradenton. Definitely keep an eye on that series, great stuff.

What Do The Pirates Have In Alex Presley?

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Another good article from WHYGAVS yesterday about Alex Presley and his future with the Pirates. I am not nearly as high on Presley as a lot of people are, and Pat would seem to agree with me. Read the article, read it now:

One More Game

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The Pirates lost another slugfest tonight with the Brewers. Wins and losses hasn't meant anything for a long time, and now it's time to focus on the fact that the Pirates season will be over by tomorrow.

The Pirates have been pathetic for pretty much as long as I have been alive, so success has nothing to do with why I love the Pirates. That makes these last games painful. The offseason seems like an eternity every year as we wait for baseball to come back. The playoffs give us a distraction for awhile and the NFL season does it for some, but it's not enough for me.

When the season ends, I don't enjoy life as much. I am far from being dependent on baseball to make me happy, I have a full and enjoyable life, but I wish the Pirates season never ended. Maybe they could take a month off or something just to give me a short break from the demands of writing and keeping up with the blog, but after that I'd be yearning for games to start again.

Every losing Pirates season gives us anxiety for the next one. The 0-0 record gives us hope that things can change. However, starting Thursday, we have a gruesome 6 month wait until Pirates baseball is back. There is more positives to look back on this year than ever, but this season sure hasn't finished on a very positive note.

There will be much to talk about during the offseason, and the blog will still be updated as regularly as possible, but I will greatly miss baseball season. I'll be watching intently tomorrow night as I get my final taste of Pirates baseball until next spring. Sad days.

The Ryan Doumit Thing

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I am going to be talking a ton about Ryan Doumit in upcoming weeks and months.

For this post, I am going to leave numbers out of it (for the most part). If you want a more intelligent article on what the Pirates should do with Doumit, I highly recommend this WHYGAVS post.

I don't really even need numbers to make my point here. Here's a sentence:

If the Pirates do not re-sign Doumit next year, they will have a full year of Michael McKenry and Matt Pagnozzi as the primary catchers.

Those guys both suck. I don't care how much you love McKenry, he sucks and is not a major league catcher. Okay, he might be a major league catcher, but he is so far away from being a major league hitter that it takes away any thought in my mind of calling him a major league player. As for Pagnozzi... who the hell is that?

This offense is bad. It's very, very bad. The only proven competent hitter the Pirates have is Andrew McCutchen. Neil Walker gets hot sometimes, and Jose Tabata and Alex Presley can also rake from time-to-time and could easily turn into players that can rake very often, but it's not a sure thing. This year, Doumit has been the Pirates best hitter when in the lineup. He missed a lot of time in the middle of the season, but has been great ever since returning. That might be because of an extra motivation he has gotten because he knows his contract is running out, but it is true regardless.

It's not going to be cheap to bring him back to Pittsburgh, but I'm starting to wonder if the Pirates even have a choice. If they want any chance at all to improve on this year's win total, they are going to have to score more runs. They aren't going to do that without Doumit in the lineup unless Pedro Alvarez turns it around or they make a splash by signing someone like Carlos Pena in the offseason (which I'm still all about).

Right now I'm not concerned with money. Why should I be? It's not my money. As a fan, it's a no-brainer, re-sign Doumit and enjoy the runs he adds with the bat. Don't give the crap about the runs he costs us on defense, because he is so far ahead of everyone else we have with the bat, and that makes the argument mute.

Sorry to be close-minded and rude, but if you think the Pirates are a 2012 better team without Doumit, you're out of your mind and I never want you to read my blog again (that's a lie, I want everyone to read my blog). Isn't the goal of spending money to make your team better? That's what other teams do at least, maybe the Pirates should try it. In conclusion, the Pirates should re-sign Doumit, please.

Triple Crown Update

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We are just days away from the end of the 2011 Major League Baseball regular season. One of the biggest stories in sports right now is the race for the National League Triple Crown. Matt Kemp of the Dodgers has a chance to do something that nobody has done since 1967, and that is win the triple crown.

I'm sure most of you know that to win the triple crown, you have to lead the league in batting average, home runs, and runs batted in. Here's the current leaders for those three categories.

HR:
Albert Pujols - 37
Matt Kemp - 37
Prince Fielder - 35
RBI:
Matt Kemp - 120
Ryan Howard - 115
Prince Fielder - 114
AVG:
Ryan Braun - .333
Jose Reyes - .331
Matt Kemp - .324

Kemp is a very good bet to win RBI and has a 50/50 shot at home runs, but batting average is probably going to be the one he falls short on. It was closer a few days ago, but Braun has gone 4/6 in his last two games while Kemp is 3/13 in his last three games. Reyes has also been hitting the ball well, going 3/7 his last two games.

The Brewers, Dodgers, and Mets all have 3 games remaining. It is interesting to note that the Dodgers have played 158 games thus far, so they should have four games left to play. However, a game with the Nationals earlier this month was postponed and no make-up was scheduled. If it comes down to Kemp being just a 2/4 day or a home run away from the triple crown, it will be interesting to see if baseball reschedules that game to give him a chance. It wouldn't really be fair for Kemp to play one less game than the other competitors, right? Intriguing stuff.

By the way, I am rooting hard for Kemp to get it. I will be locked in on every Braun at-bat this series and hoping he comes up hitless. That is unlikely to happen, and Kemp is going to have rack up some hits in his final three to have a chance, but nothing seems beyond reach to this guy, he is having one of the best seasons we have seen in a long time and is just three home runs shy of having a very rare 40 homer - 40 steal season. Heck of a player.

Pirates Offseason Preview

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Good piece by Bucs Dugout about the upcoming Pirates offseason. They cover everything you need to know for now. Click the image and check it out.

Pirates vs. Brewers Series Preview

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The last series of the year starts tonight, and the Pirates are in Milwaukee for that series. This 3-game set is of much more importance to the Brewers than the Pirates, but it would still be nice to see the Pirates go in there and win some games to slow Milwaukee's momentum as they head to the postseason. Seeing the Brewers have any success in the playoffs would make me sick, as it would to most of you I assume. Here's the ESPN preview. Check it out.

Pirates Attendance and Payroll

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Another great article over at Pirates Prospects again today. This one's about the increased attendance and what it means for the future payroll. Check it out.

2011 McSteelers

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First Steelers post of the year. Check it out.

Last Home Game of the Year

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It's the last chance to see the 2011 Pirates play in Pittsburgh this year.

Good news is that James McDonald is on the mound for his last start of the year. I expect J-Mac to dominate today and finish the season strong. He's been inconsistent for the Pirates this year, but all-in-all I am encouraged to what he showed us this year. It's hard to say that one start is more important than another, but it would be nice for McDonald to finish the season on a high note today.

Here's the rest of the lineup:

1. Alex Presley (L) LF
2. Josh Harrison (R) 3B
3. Andrew McCutchen (R) CF
4. Derrek Lee (R) 1B
5. Neil Walker (S) 2B
6. Ryan Ludwick (R) RF
7. Chase d'Arnaud (R) SS
8. Michael McKenry (R) C
9. James McDonald (L) P

Wish I were there, looking forward to next year in a big way but it's sad to know that I have seen the Pirates play for the last time until next April.

Minor League McPitcher of the Year

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Kyle McPherson won minor league pitcher of the year. Duh.

The "Mc" Effect extends beyond the major league team.

Moneyball Review

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Moneyball was awesome. It's far too late to write a review right now but I'll get something up tomorrow. Basically, just go see it. If you read this blog and enjoy it you'll love the movie.

If you don't really like baseball, you'll think the movie sucks. However, you wouldn't be reading this if you didn't like baseball, so that was a wasted sentence.

Moneyball Midnight Showing In Waterfront

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Loews Waterfront 22 in Homestead is having a midnight showing of Moneyball tonight. You can buy tickets here. It's the only theatre showing it at midnight in the Pittsburgh area, and the show was just added yesterday.

I don't know what the turn out will be like, but you should probably get your tickets in advance. I will be in attendance so if you decide to come give me a shout.

Gerrit Cole To Pitch In Arizona Fall League

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The big news today was that the Pirates are sending this year's first overall draft pick to the Arizona Fall League, which is music to my ears. That adds just another thing to keep track of and make the offseason more entertaining. Click the image below to read more.

Good News

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The game isn't over yet, but I've seen enough to write this post.

Charlie Morton threw six very strong shut-out innings. Pedro Alvarez hit a bomb for his 4th homer of the year. Both of those happened in the same game, that's something we haven't been seeing a lot lately.

Ground Chuck is looking to finish his season strong and has his ERA down to 3.67 after throwing up six zeroes tonight. He struck out five in those innings while walking three. It is always a good thing to see a strong start from one of your pitchers, but it always seems a little more satisfying when Morton does it.

Alvarez was the other good story tonight. Now Pedro has seemed to only have had a handful of good games at the plate this year, which is extremely frustrating, but tonight was one of those nights. He hit an absolute blast to right field for his fourth home run of the year. All four of his home runs have been on the road. Post coming up about that tomorrow or Thursday.

Chris Leroux was kind of disappointing tonight, which you can excuse because of how good he has been lately. Jason Grilli did a great job cleaning up for Leroux after he allowed two singles to start his inning. Grilli gave up a run on a single but then got three outs without allowing another. Tony Watson also did a good job cleaning things up for Veras and the Pirates look well on their way to a victory as Joel Hanrahan is warming up as I type.

It's looking to be a good win for the Pirates, knock on wood. Regardless of what might happen in the 9th, it was a positive game for the Bucs during a time when wins and losses do not mean much.

Pirates Boast Three Top GCL Prospects

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Very interesting article over on Pirates Prospects today. Click here and check it out.

Rays & Red Sox (David & Goliath)

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I don't normally write anything about the American League, but the Pirates season has been over for a long time and I figure maybe I can capture some interest talking about other teams.

That said, I can not tell you how badly I want to see the Red Sox miss the playoffs. They were the story of the offseason and were everybody's pick for AL Champion.

The signing of Carl Crawford was huge for them when it happened, but he has proved to not be worth the 7 year, $142 million deal they gave him. Crawford has a pretty pedestrian .255/.292/.402 line with 11 home runs and 18 stolen bases, by far the worst season of his career (his career triple-slash line is .293/.333/.440). Crawford's poor season is one of the biggest reasons that the Red Sox find themselves just 2 games up in the wild card race right now after losing 3 of 4 to the Rays.

The other big acquisition the Red Sox made this offseason was getting Adrian Gonzalez from the Padres. They acquired him in a December trade and gave him a hefty contract. From 2012 through 2018, Gonzalez will make $154 million dollars. He is making just $5.5 million this year but will make over $20 million a year for the next seven years starting in 2012. Unlike CrawfO.D. Gonzalez has actually performed for the Sox. He is hitting .338/.407/.551 with 26 home runs and 113 RBI in 151 games. He has been their best player and is the main reason that they are in playoff contention right now.

Right now, the Red Sox have a 87.8% chance of making the playoffs, while the Rays have an 11.8% chance. Those aren't great numbers for someone rooting against Boston. However, I really don't think any Boston fan expected that number to not be 100% with just 8 games left to play.

The Rays put themselves in much better position by taking three of four from the Sox last week, but they still have their work cut out for them. Seven of their final ten games are against the Yankees, with the other three coming against the Blue Jays. They are realistically going to have to win at least six of those games to have a prayer. The Red Sox finish with five games against the Orioles and three against the Yankees. The Rays do have the luxury of having two more games to play than the Red Sox, but the chances aren't great right now.

The fact that these two teams are even close in the race is pretty remarkable, as it has been for the last four years since Rays management turned their franchise around.

The Red Sox total payroll for 2011 is $161,762,475, the third highest in the league (behind the Yankees and Phillies). The Rays have a payroll of $41,053,571, which is second lowest in the league. That's a difference of 120,708,904. The Pirates payroll is even higher than the Rays. Only the Royals have a lower number than Tampa Bay (at $36,126,000).

Knowing that, how could you not root for Tampa Bay? I have been doing it ever since the turnaround in 2008 (bandwagon, yup). This year I find myself pulling even harder for them, since everybody wrote them off after they lost the best player in the history of their franchise (the aforementioned Crawford) to a division rival. Despite all the disadvantages they face being a small-market team, they find themselves right in the race yet again.

Yesterday, I wrote about the Arizona Diamondbacks, and how pitching has been the story for their turnaround. This is again true for the Rays this year. James Shields and Jeremy Hellickson have ERAs under 3, David Price has a 3.36 mark with a ridiculous 8.7 K/9 ratio. Wade Davis and Jeff Niemann have been inconsistent at times but have been serviceable starts and have 21 wins combined. That's how you win over a long stretch of time, starting pitching. The Rays have that figured out and they just keep producing good pitching prospects (they just brought up another possible phenom in Matt Moore who has been coming out of the bullpen, keep an eye out for him).

Major League Baseball is far from a perfect organization. The lack of a salary cap makes the game unfair, but stories like the Tampa Bay Rays gives us fans of other small market teams hope for the future.

Two Hits

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Ian Kennedy is a very good starting pitcher. However, the Pirates offense just didn't seem to even try tonight.

The Pirates got two hits, one of which came from Jeff Karstens. The second one came from Alex Presley in the ninth inning, and it was a one-out triple. With Neil Walker and Andrew McCutchen coming up behind him, the Pirates chances of tying the game looked pretty good. However, Walker grounded out and Cutch struck out and the Pirates lost another game. The offense is completely pathetic.

The good news is that Jeff Karstens finished his season on a strong note, going six innings and giving up just one run (on a solo home run, fittingly). He struck out three and walked one. He has done more than enough to sure up a spot in the rotation next year, although I'm not going to be excited about it when that time comes.

If you read my earlier post, you know I'm cheering for the Diamondbacks for the rest of this season, so I was kind of glad to see the Pirates help them out a little bit. However, it looks like this team has checked out.

More coming in the next few days.

The Arizona Diamondbacks Model

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Last year, the Pittsburgh Pirates and Arizona Diamondbacks had too much in common. Both teams finished last in their division and gave people very little hope for more success in 2011.

At the halfway point, both of these teams were right in the heat of their division races and were the Cinderella stories of baseball. However, three months later they have taken quite different paths.

Here's the all-star break records:

Pirates: 47-43
D-Backs: 49-43

And here are their current records:

Pirates: 68-85
D-Backs: 88-64

So that means that Pirates have 19 wins and the Diamondbacks have 39 wins since the midsummer classic. While this second has been extremely discouraging for Pirates fans, the fact that the Diamondbacks have been able to maintain their success is encouraging. Here's why:

Arizona's 2011 payroll is $53.6 million, which is the 6th lowest in the league (The Pirates are 3rd lowest with a payroll of $45 million). Despite that, they have built a strong young team that has proven that it can compete with the rest of the league.

Justin Upton, Chris Young, and Stephen Drew are really the only players that the Diamondbacks have money invested in. Upton is owed $4.25 million this year, $6.75 million in 2012, $9.75 million in 2013, $14.25 million in 2014, and $14.5 million in 2015. That's a hefty contract, but he has proved to be worth the money.

Young is owed $5 million this year, $7 million next year, and $8.5 million in 2013, with a $1.5 million option in 2014. Drew is making $4.65 million this year and $7.75 million next year with a $1.35 million option in 2013.

Outside of those three, the Diamondbacks have a lot of financial leeway with their current roster.

Upton is the only established star on this ball club, much like Andrew McCutchen is in Pittsburgh. The Diamondbacks are going to have to build around him if they want to be competitive in the long-term.

Over the last few years, the Diamondbacks' farm system has been far from impressive. They were perennial ranked in the middle of the pack or near the bottom. However, they have done a pretty good job turning it around recently. This article from AZ Snake Pit claims that the D-Backs have a top-5 system in the league. I'm not sure if I would go that far, but they certainly have some strong prospects as mentioned in that article.

Let's get our focus back to the present. The Diamondbacks are in the driver's seat in the NL West. They are 5 games ahead of the Giants and have a 98% chance of making the playoffs. The question is, how have they done it?

As is true in most of these stories, the Diamondbacks have been getting it done with pitching. Ian Kennedy, who the Pirates will face tonight, has been one of the best pitchers in the National League. He has only 4 losses to go along with his 19 wins and a 2.99 ERA to boot. Daniel Hudson, Joe Saunders, and Josh Collmenter have also been terrific. The highest ERA of those three belongs to Saunders, who has a 3.66 mark. None of them walk batters often and they all get their strikeouts when they need them. J.J. Putz, David Hernandez, and Joe Paterson have done a great job collectively out of the bullpen.

On the offensive side of the ball, Upton has been carrying the team. He has a triple-slash line of .293/.374/.537 with 30 home runs and 86 RBI. His 6.8 WAR leads the team and is one of the better numbers in the league. Arizona has also gotten good contributions from Miguel Montero (.281/.352/.470) and Gerardo Parra (.296/.358/.438) with the sticks. Young has 20 home runs despite a .232/.325 AVG/OBP.

The story with the Diamondbacks this year has been pitching, as was the story with the Pirates for the first three months. Arizona is going to need some more bats in their lineup to compete for more than this year, but help is on the way through their farm system.

This is just another example that points to the fact that the Pirates need more pitching to be competitive. I'm not buying that next year's rotation of McDonald - Morton - Karstens - Correia - Lincoln/Ohlendorf is good enough to come anywhere near a division title with. The good news is that the Pirates have arms like Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon in the system now that give us hope down the road.

I don't see any way this Pirates team can win a division title until one or both of those arms is in the rotation and dominating. There is the possibility that Pedro Alvarez figures it out and starts mashing the ball while McCutchen continues to get even better and move his way up the list of best players in the league. The Pirates should get solid contributions from Jose Tabata and Neil Walker next year, but without a good pitching staff, it's not going to be enough.

As for right now, I am rooting hard for the Arizona Diamondbacks to win another championship in 2011.

Ugly

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I didn't watch the game today, but I did look at the box score on my phone for a few seconds before dropping the device out of disgust.

This was one of those games that makes you shake your head and wonder how this team was ever competitive. I'm not going to go back to the box score to give you specifics, but it was a terribly ugly performance, reminiscent of the 20-0 spanking the Brewers put on us last year.

Brad Lincoln had looked good at times this year but pretty much gave all that positivity back today. Again, not looking at the box score at all but I think he gave up like 7 runs in less than 2 innings. I don't care who you play, that is terrible.


I guess it was a good day for the offense not to show up, but it would have been nice for there to be some positive today. Not that any of this matters anymore, right now we're at the spot where we almost want to lose to move up the draft board. Although the Cubs are now just a game behind us and we are in serious danger of finishing 5th in the division this year instead of the 4th place we thought we had locked up. The Astros have 100 losses already, so we don't have to worry about finishing last again.

Until tomorrow.

Jeff Locke September 16 Pitch F/X

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As the season winds down, there are only a few reasons to watch this Pirates team play. One of those reasons is Jeff Locke, who was on the hill tonight. This is a guy that started this year in AA and ended up in AAA and pitched very well for most of the year. That was enough to earn him the september call-up and now he is up at the major league level trying to prove that he is good enough to make the major league roster out of spring training next year.

So far, we haven't got to see much from him. In his first start, he went 5 innings and gave up 3 runs. Tonight he only made it through 3 innings despite throwing just 68 pitches and allowing 3 more earned runs. Sure, 3 runs in 3 innings isn't great, but normally not bad enough to get a pitcher taken out of the game. I am sure the organization is worried about his pitch count as he has thrown more innings this year than ever before, so his workload would be limited regardless of performance. It's hard to get a feel for what he's got when he's only getting 3-5 innings a start. You can't tell anything from 8 innings, so I'm not making judgments based on the numbers, but I really don't think he has much of a chance to make the opening day 25-man roster next year. That is mainly just because of all of the other guys that will be fighting for the spot and their current situations. Ross Ohlendorf and Brad Lincoln would have the edge at the beginning just because of their age and contract status, Locke is young enough that he can still get better from pitching in the minor leagues and has some things still to learn.

We'll get more into that as the season winds down and we go into the offseason, for now let's look at Locke's pitch F/X for his abbreviated start tonight.

3 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 0 K
Pitch TypeAvg SpeedH-BreakV-BreakCountStrikes/%
4-Seam 90.4 5.98 9.66 37 20/54.05%
Change 79.8 -5.27 7.41 8 8/100.00%
Slider 75.8 -5.20 -0.94 5 2/40.00%
Curve 74.1 -5.99 -4.69 5 2/40.00%
2-Seam 82.0 6.76 6.95 5 3/60.00%

We should see at least one more start out of Locke, and hopefully two. He will definitely be a topic of much discussion this offseason, so get used to reading his name.

Fall Instructional League Rosters

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I'm stealing thunder from Pirates beat writer Kristy Robinson here, but here are your rosters for this year's fall instructional league. The camp runs from September 18th to October 22nd. The two stars by a player's name indicates that the player will participate in the Arizona Fall League. Check it out.

PITCHERS (45)
Allie, Stetson — RHP, State College Spikes, first two weeks
Baker, Nathanial — LHP, Bradenton Marauders, first two weeks **
Beckman, Ryan — RHP, Bradenton/West Virginia, first two weeks
Benedict, Matthew — RHP, State College Spikes, entire camp
Black, Victor — RHP, Bradenton/West Virginia, first two weeks
Brewer, Colten — RHP, 2011 4th round draft pick, entire camp
Burnette, Jacob — RHP, GCL Pirates, entire camp
Cain, Colton — RHP, West Virginia Power, first two weeks
Campos, Luis — RHP, VSL Pirates, entire camp
Cole, Gerrit — RHP, 2011 1st round draft pick (No. 1 overall), entire camp **
Cooper, Jordan — RHP, State College Spikes, entire camp
Creasy, Jason — RHP, GCL Pirates, entire camp
Cumpton, Brandon, RHP, Bradenton/ West Virginia, first two weeks
Dodson, Zackary — LHP, West Virginia/ State College/ GCL Pirates, first two weeks
Espinosa, Roberto, RHP, VSL Pirates, entire camp
Fuesser, Zachary — LHP, West Virginia, first two weeks
Glasnow, Tyler — RHP, 2011 5th round draft pick, entire camp
Hafner, Ryan — RHP, State College Spikes, first two weeks
Heredia, Luis — RHP, GCL Pirates, first two weeks
Herrand, Yonatan — RHP, GCL Pirates, first two weeks
Holmes, Clayton — RHP, 2011 9th round draft pick, entire
Inman, Jeffrey — RHP, Bradenton/ GCL Pirates, first two weeks
Jagoditsh, David — RHP, GCL Pirates, entire camp
Jefferson, Michael — LHP, State College Spikes, entire camp
Kingham, Nick — RHP, State College Spikes, first two weeks
Kleis, Kevin — RHP, State College Spikes, first two weeks
Lopez, Cesar — RHP, State College/ GCL Pirates, first two weeks
Lukashevich, Alex, RHP, West Virginia Power, first two weeks
Mateo, Diomedes — LHP, State College/ GCL Pirates/ DSL Pirates, first two weeks
Merejo, Aneudy — RHP, DSL Pirates, entire camp
Miller, Quinton — RHP, Bradenton Marauders, first two weeks
Neverauskas, Dovydas — RHP, GCL Pirates, first two weeks
Otamendi, Andy — LHP, VSL Pirates, entire camp
Owens, Rudy — LHP, Indianapolis Indians, Rehab
Perez, Clario — RHP, DSL Pirates, entire camp
Pounders, Brooks — RHP, West Virginia Power, first two weeks
Poytress, Joshua — LHP, State College Spikes, entire camp
Sadler, Casey — RHP, West Virginia Power, first two weeks
Singh, Rinku — LHP, West Virginia/ State College/ GCL Pirates/ DSL Pirates, first two weeks
Stevenson, Trent — RHP, West Virginia/ State College, first two weeks
Strickland, Hunter — RHP, Bradenton Marauders, N/A
Taillon, Jameson — RHP, West Virginia Power, first two weeks
Trepagnier, Bryton — RHP, GCL Pirates, first two weeks
Von Rosenberg, Zachary — RHP, West Virginia Power, first two weeks
Waldron, Tyler — RHP, Bradenton/ West Virginia, first two weeks

CATCHERS (9)
Cabrera, Ramon — C, Bradenton Marauders, first two weeks
Diaz, Elias — C, West Virginia Power, first two weeks
Fryer, Eric — C, Pittsburgh/ Indianapolis/ Altoona, N/A
Gonzalez, Samuel — C, State College Spikes, first two weeks
Hornback, Ryan — C, GCL Pirates, entire camp
Jhang, Jin-De — C, N/A, N/A
Sanchez, Tony — C, Altoona Curve, first two weeks
Schwind, Jonathan — C, GCL Pirates, entire camp
Trent, Derek — C, State College Spikes, entire camp

FIRST BASEMEN (4)
Anderson, Calvin — 1B, Bradenton Marauders, first two weeks
Curry, Matthew — 1B, Altoona/ West Virginia, first two weeks
Dickerson, Alexander — 1B, State College, entire camp
Lakind, Jared — 1B, GCL Pirates, first two weeks

SECOND BASEMEN (4)
Cunningham, Jarek — 2B, Bradenton/ GCL Pirates, first two weeks **
Friday, Brian — 2B, Indianapolis Indians, first two weeks
Gamache, Daniel — 2B, State College/ GCL Pirates, entire camp
Hanson, Alen — 2B, State College/ GCL Pirates, first two weeks

THIRD BASEMEN (3)
Espinal, Edwin — 3B, DSL Pirates, entire camp
Gonzalez, Elevys — 3B, Bradenton Marauders, first two weeks
Lashmet, Christopher — 3B, State College Spikes, entire camp

SHORTSTOPS (8)
Barrios, Yhonathan — SS, GCL Pirates, first two weeks
Carvajal, Jodaneli — SS, GCL Pirates, first two weeks
Gonzalez, Benjamin — SS, Bradenton Marauders, first two weeks
Gourley, Walker — SS, State College Spikes, first two weeks
Herrera, Dilson — SS, VSL Pirates, entire camp
Maggi, Drew – SS, West Virginia Power, first two weeks
Ngoepe, Gift — SS, West Virginia/GCL Pirates, entire camp
Singer, Kirk — SS, State College Spikes, entire camp

OUTFIELDERS (17)
Bell, Joshua — 2011 2nd round pick, Entire camp
Chambers, Evan — OF, Bradenton Marauders, first two weeks
Fortunato, Raul — OF, DSL Pirates, entire camp
Freeman, Wesley — OF, West Virginia/ State College, first two weeks
Garcia, Willy — OF, State College/ GCL Pirates, first two weeks
Grovatt, Daniel — OF, West Virginia Power, first two weeks
Jones, Roderick — OF, State College/ GCL Pirates, entire camp
Latimore, Quincy — OF, Altoona Curve, first two weeks
Lewis, Taylor — OF, State College Spikes, entire camp
Marte, Starling — OF, Altoona Curve, first two weeks
Mesa, Carlos — OF, State College Spikes, entire camp

Myles, Candon — OF, GCL Pirates, entire camp
Osuna, Jose — OF, State College/ GCL Pirates, first two weeks
Polanco, Gregory — OF, State College/ GCL Pirates, first two weeks
Rojas, Jr., Mel — OF, West Virginia Power, first two weeks
Urena, Luis — OF, GCL Pirates, first two weeks
Vasquez, Jesus — OF, DSL Pirates, entire camp

Let Pedro Play

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Tonight's Pirates lineup is posted and Pedro Alvarez is in it. He is playing third and hitting 7th. That is good news in my eyes, because honestly I have been questioning why they haven't been him more often since his recall earlier this month.

Over the last six games, Alvarez has started three of them. I understand that the Pirates want to continue to get Josh Harrison and Brandon Wood playing time, but I think it makes more sense to let Alvarez start every day for the rest of the season.

There is really nothing more important to the future of this Pirates team than the bat of Alvarez. He's not going to turn it around in two weeks of playing time, but it is going to do him more good than having him ride the bench will. This season is over and the Pirates need to do everything they can to make Alvarez a better player in 2012.

That probably involves him playing some winter ball, which we are all hoping helps him at the plate substantially because he has just been miserable this year at pretty much every level. It bas been an extremely disheartening season for Alvarez, and overall it is probably the worst non-injury thing that could have happened to the Pirates.

Alvarez will probably hit .200 the rest of the way out with the small amount of at-bats that he gets, but I feel that is very important to at least get as many plate appearances as he can.

We Have Seen The Last of Paul Maholm

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I just realized this. Paul Maholm has pitched his last game in a Pirate uniform.

Is that a hasty assumption to make? Maybe. But check out the facts.

Maholm is due to be a free agent this offseason, although the Pirates could pick up the $9.75 million option to keep him around. When the Pirates were in first place and he was pitching great, that seemed like a legitimate thing to consider. However, it looks different right now.

When you look at his 2011 season as a whole, it wasn't stellar. A 3.66 ERA with 26 starts and 1.94 K/BB ratio. Sure, that's a solid season, and certainly did a lot to help this team this year. However, the Pirates are a small market team and it does not make a ton of sense to shell out that much money for an average starter, even if he would be one of our best.

Aside from that, let me say this. I do not think Maholm would have the same success he had this year in 2012. I think this year was largely flukey and what we saw in the second half is more what you should expect from him next year. Despite that, there is something to be said for a guy that doesn't miss starts (I still do not buy his injury this year being legitimate), but you do not pay a guy with a career ERA of 4.36 that much money when you are the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Looking aside from the money perspective, the Pirates have a real log jam at starting pitcher next year. Taking Maholm out of the picture entirely, there is going to be at least seven guys competing for five slots. James McDonald, Charlie Morton, and Jeff Karstens are locks to take three of those spots, and the final two will be fought for by Kevin Correia, Brad Lincoln, Ross Ohlendorf, and Jeff Locke. If Maholm comes back, he would automatically be a lock for the rotation because of the money he will have got. He could easily not be in the top five in that group of players in terms of ability as a starting pitcher, so why pay him way more than you are paying everyone else? It does not make sense, and even if it did make sense, the Pirates are not the team to throw money around loosely.

So all of that said, I firmly believe that Paul Maholm has thrown his last pitch in a Pirates uniform. That means he was 0-5 in his final seven starts as a Pirate and watched his season ERA climb from 2.96 to 3.66 in his final 48.1 innings.

All-in-all, Maholm is a great guy and has given a lot to this franchise. He was never in the news for the wrong reasons and was an absolutely gamer in his time with Pittsburgh. He gave it 100% all the time and it was too bad that he could not be a little more consistent. He will be missed, but I think the money would be missed more.

I Like Ryan Doumit

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I'm trying this new thing where I'm going to post a bunch of really short posts with short thoughts and comments. This one is about Ryan Doumit.

The Pirates are about to beat the Los Angeles Dodgers and Doumit ripped another double just a few minutes ago. It was well known going into and throughout this year that this was most likely Doumit's last year in a Pirates uniform. The team could not trade him this July because he was injured, and the option on his contract seems way to steep to even consider picking up given his track record with the Pirates.

That said, Doumit has hit .327/.370/.525 since returning from his injury (that's in 33 games) and he has probably been the Pirates best player overall. Getting that kind of production from your catcher is something that is of major value, and probably worth the money that they would have to pay Doumit to stick around.

So is Doumit performing better right now because he knows he is basically auditioning for a job with another team as the offseason approaches? Yeah, probably.

There is no reason to believe that something suddenly clicked for Doumit while he was on the shelf and now all of the sudden he is a more consistent hitter. If that is the case, that would be great, but it just looks like it is too late to even consider that possibility. The option on his contract is worth $7.25 million, which again, is too much to pay an inconsistent offensive catcher that cannot stay healthy and plays horrible defense.

If you would tell me that Doumit would have a .500 slugging percentage next year I would say give him the money, especially when you look at what the catching depth chart is going to look like next year. It's going to be ugly.

I have never been one to hate on Doumit, I have always overvalued what he brings to the table offensively, and I am going to be sad to see him go. I am also pretty confident that Pittsburgh will join me in my sadness when the Pirates do not sign a real catcher in the offseason and end up with Michael McKenry and Jason Jaramillo as the starters next year. Yikes.

The possibility remains that the Pirates could rework Doumit's deal and get him to stay, but I really don't think Doumit wants to be here enough to even consider that. This will be the last two weeks we see of Doumit in a Pirate uniform, and he looks prepared to go out with a bang.

Ross Ohlendorf September 15 Pitch F/X

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7 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 6 K
Pitch TypeAvg SpeedH-BreakV-BreakCountStrikes/%
4-Seam 91.8 -6.77 7.66 17 12/70.59%
Change 82.6 -10.6 5.05 4 3/75.00%
Slider 81.0 1.13 -0.49 27 20/73.91%
2-Seam 91.5 -9.31 5.12 23 17/73.91%

Ross Ohlendorf Just Hit A Home Run

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I am in shock. Here's Ross Ohlendorf's career spray chart before tonight:


Now put another green square out right next to that 375 marker, what a blast.

Nineteen

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The Pirates loss today clinched their 19th consecutive losing season. You know what I say? So what.

Every day that passes we are getting further and further removed from when the Pirates were in first place and the city of Pittsburgh was in love with baseball again. However, grab some perspective, two months isn't that long ago. The Pirates provided us with more excitement and entertainment this year than they have in any season in recent memory.

What this team did from April to mid-July was more than enough to put a smile on my face that nothing could take away. As you may know, I'm a 20-year old college kid, which means that the last time the Pirates were in the playoffs I was not yet 2 years old. What I saw from this team this summer was amazing, and made my everyday life incrementally better.

Now I am not the type that gets my happiness from sports, I'm a very reasonable guy with a strong faith in God and bigger things, but there is no doubt that the Pirates did a lot this summer to make me happy. So why let that go away?

When you look back at this season a few years down the road, it'll look like just another losing season. It won't be a dismal 100+ loss season, but it will not stand out. So let's just let that happen when it happens and continue to remember the excitement that we felt just a few months ago. This team made Pittsburgh completely forget about the NFL lockout, and made them feel less pain when the Penguins were eliminated from the NHL playoffs.

Now we are back into football season and the Pirates have 82 losses. Things have changed a lot, but there is still good news.

On April 5th of next year, the Pittsburgh Pirates will be back at .500 and tied for first place. Something similar can be said any old year, but this time we have more reason to believe that they can stay competitive for longer than a few weeks.

Andrew McCutchen is already one of the best players in the league and should continue to get better. Jose Tabata is getting better every week and has a sense of security and confidence with the Pirates that should only help him capitalize on the potential that he has. Neil Walker played a full season in the major leagues and nobody will argue that he is capable of being an everyday second (or third) baseman in the bigs. James McDonald looks like a very capable big league pitcher with upside to flirt with "ace" status. Charlie Morton can dominate a team on any given night, and can now say that he has had a full year of competency at the major league level. The Pirates have three ace-calibur arms in the minor leagues and some solid young hitters as well.

The 2011 season was a successful one. Nobody expected this team to break the streak this year, although there is an element of disappointment since they started so well, but in the end they will have the amount of wins that most optimistic Pirate fans thought they would. There is reason to believe that the Pirates will be better next year, and there is major reason to believe that the division will be worse next year (thanks to the hopeful departure of Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols).

Today is a sad day for the Pirates, but keep your head up Pittsburgh, the future is bright. And even if the future is just as bad as the past, at the end of the day, it's just a game, right?

Cardinals vs. Pirates, Liveblog

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Offense & Starting Pitching Stats From Down The Stretch

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All year I have been keeping a spreadsheet that takes a look at the offensive production along with the starting pitching production. For the first half of the year, the starting pitching looked very, very good while the offense trailed behind. Now both are looking pretty bad.

The Pirates have certainly fallen a long way since late July when they were in first place. Let's take a look at the ugliness that has been the last 43 games for our Pirates. The image is small, so click on it for a bigger view.


In these last 43 games, the Pirates have 12 wins and 31 losses. They have won consecutive games just twice, and have not accumulated so much as a 3-game winning streak.

The ERA for the starting pitchers is 5.33, although that includes starts from guys that aren't big league pitchers like Brian Burres, Aaron Thompson, Brad Lincoln, Ross Ohlendorf, and Jeff Locke. Now Thompson did a great job in his 4.1 innings, Locke only gave up 3 runs in his 5 innings, and Lincoln has done a good job for the most part. Burres had a good start and a bad one, and Ohlendorf has been pretty miserable in all his outings.

The team ERA for the first half was 3.68, which was pretty much the sole reason that the team was in the race. It has bloated quite a bit and the offense has not shown the improvement we expected, which has caused the Pirates to be well, the Pirates, once again.

The Pirates are scoring just 3.6 runs per game in this stretch of 43 games while the starters alone are allowing 3.3 (when you add the bullpen in the difference is expanded). Strikeouts have also been hard to come by as the starters are striking out just 3.5 batters per outing (without 2nd Half MVP James McDonald, that number would be significantly smaller).

Looking at the season as a whole, here are the Pirates numbers:

Batting:
BA: .243
H/G: 8.1
R/G: 3.7
K/G: 8.0
BB/G: 3.0

Starters:
IP/G: 5.8
H/G: 6.2
R/G: 2.9
ER/G: 2.6
BB/G: 1.9
K/G: 3.6
HR/G: 0.6
ERA: 4.08

Overall I will take the most of the starting pitchers numbers. If this team had an average offense, those pitching numbers would be good enough to be flirting with .500 and possibly with some luck be somewhat competitive in the division.

The hitting has been terrible all year and things don't look that much better for next year either. Andrew McCutchen should be a force once again and continue to get better, and I'm starting to become pretty confident that Jose Tabata will be a legitimate big league hitter for a long time, but there's really not much else there to be optimistic about. Neil Walker and Garrett Jones have been inconsistent, Pedro Alvarez looks like a AA player, and there is no way in my mind that Derrek Lee and Ryan Ludwick return next year. The Pirates are going to have to get some bats in free agency if they want to look significantly better next year than this year, and unless they do it, they once again have very little chance of competing for 6 months.

The starters also worry me. Paul Maholm and Kevin Correia had good first halves but I don't think they can be anything more than 4 starters in the big leagues. The upside comes with Charlie Morton and McDonald, they will be the best two pitchers on this team next year. The 5th spot looks to be up in the air with competition forming between Ohlendorf and Lincoln, and maybe even a Locke.

It's too early to talk too extensively about 2012, but it always feels good to look forward to when the Pirates will be 0-0 once again and have hope.

James McDonald September 11 Pitch F/X

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4.2 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 4 BB, 3 K
Pitch TypeAvg SpeedH-BreakV-BreakCountStrikes/%
4-Seam 92.8 -2.25 10.45 49 28/57.14%
Curve 77.3 5.68 -5.25 14 9/64.29%
2-Seam 91.9 -5.96 7.32 21 11/52.38%
Season Averages
Pitch TypeAvg SpeedH-BreakV-BreakSelectionStrike%
4-Seam 93.0 -3.10 10.11 44.0% 71.0%
Change 81.6 -3.76 4.63 6.7% 52.6%
Curve 76.5 5.73 -7.59 26.6% 58.7%
2-Seam 92.8 -6.61 7.32 22.7% 60.9%

Marlins vs. Pirates, Game 146

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Florida Marlins (65-79) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (66-79)
1:35 at PNC Park

Javier Vazquez (9-11, 4.29) vs. James McDonald (9-7, 3.98)


Lineups:
Marlins Lineup:
1. Emilio Bonifacio (S) LF
2. Omar Infante (R) 2B
3. Greg Dobbs (L) RF
4. Gaby Sanchez (R) 1B
5. Bryan Petersen (L) CF
6. Donnie Murphy (R) SS
7. Matt Dominguez (R) 3B
8. Brett Hayes (R) C
9. Javier Vazquez (R) P
Pirates Lineup:
1. Alex Presley (L) LF
2. Neil Walker (S) 2B
3. Andrew McCutchen (R) CF
4. Derrek Lee (R) 1B
5. Ryan Doumit (S) C
6. Ryan Ludwick (R) RF
7. Josh Harrison (R) 3B
8. Ronny Cedeno (R) SS
9. James McDonald (L) P
Liveblog:

Jared Hughes Impressive, Jeff Locke To Start Tonight

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It's hard to sit through an entire Pirate game these days. The team has fallen a long ways from where they were in mid July, and every day we are getting closer and closer to loss number 82. One of the only things that makes the Pirates worth watching these days are too see Jared Hughes and Jeff Locke pitch. Those two started the year in AA Altoona and were impressive enough in AAA Indianapolis to earn a September call-up. We have seen Hughes twice now and Locke will make the start tomorrow.

Here's what Hughes has done in his extremely small sample:

1.1 Innings vs. Houston:
J. Paredas grounded out to pitcher
J. Martinez grounded out to shortstop
C. Lee popped out to second base
M. Downs singled to center field
J. Michaels grounded out to pitcher

1.1 Innings vs. Florida:
R. Nolasco grounded out to third base
E. Bonifacio grounded out to second base
O. Infante grounded out to third base
G. Dobbs grounded out to short stop

That's 9 batters faced and 7 groundouts, a pop out, and a single. Pretty impressive. His average velocity on the fastball has been about 93, which is alright. He's also thrown a slider as his secondary pitch and has mixed in some change ups.

Locke is an even more intriguing pitcher, mainly because of he projects to be a starter. We'll get a close look at him tomorrow, and I'll be sure to post the Pitch F/X and what I noticed from his start a few hours after the game (I'll be in attendance), so check back for that.

It's an extremely unexciting time to be a Pirate fan, especially with the Steelers kicking off their season this weekend, but at least we have something to watch the games for.

Marlins vs. Pirates, Game 144

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Florida Marlins (63-79) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (66-77)
7:05 at PNC Park

Ricky Nolasco (9-10, 4.39) vs.  Ross Ohlendorf (0-1, 6.35)


Lineups:
Marlins Lineup:
1. Emilio Bonifacio (S) SS
2. Omar Infante (R) 2B
3. Greg Dobbs (L) 3B
4. Mike Stanton (R) RF
5. Logan Morrison (L) LF
6. Jose Lopez (R) 1B
7. Bryan Petersen (L) CF
8. John Buck (R) C
9. Ricky Nolasco (R) P
Pirates Lineup:
1. Alex Presley (L) LF
2. Neil Walker (S) 2B
3. Andrew McCutchen (R) CF
4. Derrek Lee (R) 1B
5. Ryan Doumit (S) C
6. Ryan Ludwick (R) RF
7. Josh Harrison (R) 3B
8. Pedro Ciriaco (R) SS
9. Ross Ohlendorf (R) P
Liveblog:  

The Power Bat of Andrew McCutchen?

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Andrew McCutchen is a super star in the making, everyone around the league knows that. He is nearly the definition of a 5-tool player and his ceiling seems limitless. However, he seems to have changed a little bit at he plate this year. Let's take a look at some numbers.

McCutchen was called up in early June of 2009, and played 108 games for the Pirates that summer. He hit .286/.365/.471 with 12 home runs, 9 triples, 26 doubles, and 77 singles.

In 2010, his first full season, Cutch hit .286/.365/.449 with 16 home runs, 5 triples, 35 doubles, and 107 singles.

It's pretty amazing to me that McCutchen hit for the exact same batting average and on-base percentage in his first two seasons, but regardless of that, it was pretty evident that McCutchen was a guy that was going to hit for a good batting average with a moderate amount of power. Everyone was more than happy with the 15-20 home run per season power as long as he hit above .280, stole a bunch of bases and played defense as well as he could. However, 2011 has been a different story.

So far in 2011, the Pirates center fielder has hit .269/.372/.473 with 22 home runs, 4 triples, 31 doubles, and 80 singles. The average is significantly lower than what we have seen from him in his first two years. However, the on-base and slugging numbers are up.

One reason for that is probably the position McCutchen has been hitting in the lineup. He has started 137 games this year. In 64 of those starts, McCutchen was hitting 3rd in the lineup, and in 27 of them he was hitting clean up. That leaves him with 46 games where he led off. So 91 starts from a power spot against 27 from a speed/batting average spot. Compare that to 2010, when McCutchen led off in 82 games and hit 3rd in 53 games. He also hit 2nd in 17 games, so there was much less need for him to hit for power hitting at the top of the order so much.

I'm not buying that that's the only reason however. I'm not confident in saying this, but with the lack of power that Pedro Alvarez gave the Pirates this year, I think McCutchen might have taken it upon himself to hit the ball over the fence a little more often. There's a distinct difference in a home run swing compared to a contact swing, and when a hitter starts focusing more on hitting for power, he is going to lose batting average points almost every time. Only McCutchen himself could tell you if his approach at the plate is different in general this year than in years past, but I believe it has.

Scouts have always said that McCutchen has power upside, but nobody was predicting this guy to come up and hit 30+ home runs a year. He isn't going to get there this year, but the power he has shown this year has been quite impressive. McCutchen absolutely belted a pair of bombs Wednesday night and has really showcased the power in his bat this season. It hasn't come without a cost though, as his batting average is going to be nearly 20 points under his career average.

With Jose Tabata and Alex Presley showing very good ability to get on base and put the pressure on running the bases, this change in McCutchen's approach could be perfect for this Pirates lineup in coming years. They need someone who can hit home runs, there's really no one in the system other than Alvarez with that ability, so they need all the power they can get, and McCutchen has shown us that he can really help in that category.

Unless the Pirates resign a Derrek Lee or Ryan Ludwick, or go out and sign a power bat in the offseason, it's going to be a race between McCutchen and Alvarez for who leads the team in home runs next year. With Alvarez's constant struggle in 2010, and the fact that he is going to be granted another option, he could very well spend a lot of time in the minors next year, so McCutchen will probably be the biggest power bat in the lineup for most of the year. That's kind of sad to say, but what we have seen this year is encouraging, and I wouldn't be shocked to see him hit 30 bombs in 2012.

1st Half Joel Hanrahan vs. 2nd Half Joel Hanrahan

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Tonight a friend of mine (you can follow him on twitter here) asked me if Joel Hanrahan's stuff has been changing as the season has been progressing. I didn't have an answer for him there, but my instinct was to guess no. I decided to do some research on the subject, and here's what I found.

First of all, here are the numbers for Hanrahan from the first half compared to the second half:

1st Half Hanrahan: 40.1 IP, 1.34 ERA, .201 BAA, 8 BB, 35 K, 1 HRA
2nd Half Hanrahan: 21.1 IP, 2.11 ERA, .235 BAA, 6 BB, 19 K, 0 HRA

Despite blowing a few saves in the second half, Hanrahan has still been extremely hard to hit. His first half was just ridiculous, and I think a person would have been foolish to think he would keep up the numbers he was posting for a full season. Now let's get to business, here's the pitch f/x for the first half against the second half.

First Half:

Second Half:


You can tell that the velocity on the fastball is down by .4 miles per hour, which is somewhat substantial. There isn't too much difference in the movement, it actually looks like it improved, if anything. His whiff rates were better in the first half while he was throwing a higher percentage of his pitches for strikes. His control has been suspect in the second half, and his walks are much higher than they were before the all-star break.

I'm not worried about Hanrahan in the slightest bit. If he would have done in the first half what he has done in the second half, he would still have made the all-star team, although he probably wouldn't have been in discussions for the best closer in the league, as he was this year. You aren't going to see a pitcher keep a sub 1.50 ERA for very long, and it's encouraging to see that Hanrahan's stuff hasn't dropped off substantially.

There's no reason to think Hanrahan will be anything but dominant in the 9th inning for years to come in a Pirate uniform.

Astros vs. Pirates LIVEBLOG

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Pirates Call Up Jeff Locke & Jared Hughes

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The minor league affiliates wrapped up their seasons today, so we figured we would see some players called up from AAA as the rosters have already expanded. What we didn't expect however, was to see Jeff Locke and Jared Hughes. However, that's exactly what we saw.

Locke has been one of the only bright spots pitching wise for the Pirates in 2011. In 27 games and 148.1 innings, Locke put up a 3.70 ERA with 3.2 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9. That was split between AA and AAA. In Altoona, Locke pitch 125 innings with a 4.03 ERA and 8.2 K/9 with 3.3 BB/9. He was better in AAA surprisingly, posting a 1.93 ERA in 23.1 innings (4 starts) while striking out 7.3 per nine and walking 2.7 per nine.

He's got some good stuff, but I'm not sure he's major league ready yet. 23.1 innings in AAA is rarely enough for a pitcher to be prepared for the big leagues, but this is a low-pressure situation and I'm sure the Pirates just wanted to get Locke some more innings before the offseason starts.

Jared Hughes is a similar story. He doesn't have the prospect status that Locke does, but his 2011 has been good. He too has split time between AA and AAA. He threw 61.2 innings in Altoona with a 4.09 ERA, 2.6 BB/9 and 4.8 K/9 before being promoted to AAA where he too improved. He was pushed into a bullpen role at AAA but made 35 appearances and pitched 42.2 innings. His ERA there was a very tidy 2.11, and his strikeouts went way up with the shorter outings as his K/9 elevated to 9.5 while he walked 3.8 per nine. The bullpen move seemed to be a good one for Hughes, and he should get some innings in the majors out of the pen.

I don't know what they're going to do with Locke, my guess it that he'll get a couple starts and not work out of the bullpen, but I have been wrong before.

Either way, this makes the rest of the 2011 season much more interesting, and you should keep a close eye on these two players.

More moves may be announced later tonight or tomorrow. Keep an eye out for that.

Pirates 2nd Half MVP

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During the all-star break, I made a bold prediction over the radio at TribLIVE Sports Talk. That prediction was that James McDonald would be the Pirates most valuable player during the second half of the season. I also said that if the Pirates were to stay in first place and make the playoffs, McDonald would be the first one to take the ball for the Pirates in the postseason. Let's take a look at if I was right or not to this point.

Here are the numbers for the qualified Pirates players (those who have played a significant amount of time in the 2nd half):


The only two possibilities there are Ronny Cedeno and Ryan Doumit. Just picking from those two, my vote would be Doumit, despite him playing just 25 games and not playing spectacular defense. His bat has been huge for the Pirates, and the .295 average (which is even higher now because of a 2-hit game earlier today) is very impressive. Cedeno's .285 mark is good, but doesn't come with any power so you have to take it with a grain of salt. Andrew McCutchen has been thoroughly disappointing despite hitting those six home runs. Garrett Jones home run total jumps out, but the .240 average isn't doing it for me. If Derrek Lee wouldn't have gone on the DL, he would certainly be in this discussion, but you can't be an MVP when you've played only 8 games. Doumit is my offensive MVP, but not my team MVP. Let's look at the pitchers:


Looking at those numbers, there is only one option, and that's James McDonald. His 3.29 ERA, 54 strikeouts, and 60.2 innings all lead the team by a good margin. There is really nothing else I need to say to prove this point. He has far and away been the Pirates best pitcher this 2nd half.

That said, McDonald hasn't been PHENOMENAL. When I made the prediction, the Pirates were in first place and getting contributions from everybody. McDonald has really been the only pitcher that hasn't fallen off, which was the basis for my prediction in the first place, but I honestly wasn't expecting Correia and Maholm to get shelled like they did (I did however fully expect Karstens to regress). Despite everything, my prediction looks right on. Here's McDonalds 2nd half starts:

7/19 vs. CIN: 6.1 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 7 K
7/25 vs. ATL: 5.1 IP, 8 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 9 K
7/30 vs. PHI: 5.0 IP, 10 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 2 BB, 5 K
8/4   vs. CHC: 7.0 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
8/9   vs. SFG: 6.0 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 4 K
8/15 vs. STL: 5.2 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K
8/21 vs. CIN: 6.0 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 5 K
8/26 vs. STL: 6.0 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 5 K
8/31 vs. HOU: 6.0 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K
9/5   vs. HOU: 7.1 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 6 K

Only three of those ten starts were not quality starts, and the Pirates were in all of those contests, outside of the Phillies game.

I think my point has been proven. There is still a good amount of baseball to be played, but James McDonald has been very good for the Pirates this 2nd half and seems to be shining when no one else has played very well.

I'm not trying to brag... alright yeah, I'm trying to brag. James McDonald has been the Pireates 2nd Half MVP so far, and this guy called it. McProphesying.

Astros vs. Pirates, Game 141

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Houston Astros (47-93) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (64-76)
1:35 at PNC Park

Henry Sosa (2-2, 4.34) vs.  James McDonald (8-7, 4.11)


Lineups:
Astros Lineup:
1. Jordan Schafer (L) CF
2. Jose Altuve (R) 2B
3. J.D. Martinez (R) LF
4. Carlos Lee (R) 1B
5. Brian Bogusevic (L) RF
6. Jimmy Paredes (S) 3B
7. Angel Sanchez (R) SS
8. Humberto Quintero (R) C
9. Henry Sosa (R) P
Pirates Lineup:
1. Alex Presley (L) LF
2. Jose Tabata (R) RF
3. Andrew McCutchen (R) CF
4. Derrek Lee (R) 1B
5. Neil Walker (S) 2B
6. Ryan Doumit (S) C
7. Josh Harrison (R) 3B
8. Ronny Cedeno (R) SS
9. James McDonald (L) P
Liveblog:
Gameday:  

Videos From Altoona Curve Game 9/3

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I was at the Altoona Curve game last night, but I was a little lazy on the pictures and video. I got these two videos:

Here's the first one, which is Starling Marte swinging and missing at an 0-2 pitch.


Here's the second video, which makes Marte look a little better, it's a base hit to left field.



I wrote a post about what I saw at the game last night, you can read that here.

9/3 Altoona Curve - What I Learned

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I was at the Altoona Curve game last night. This post is very late because of the long drive home I had, I'm not going to give a recap, just point some things out that I saw.

First of all, Aaron Pribanic made a good start for the Curve. He went 6 innings and gave up just one run. However, I was thoroughly unimpressed with his stuff. Sitting down the first base line, I couldn't see the break on his pitches very well, but his velocity was unimpressive and the other team's hitters had very little trouble putting the ball in play. They seemed to be on pretty much every pitch they swung at, they just couldn't find many holes. That said, you can't argue with what Pribanic did last night, and his season as a whole hasn't been a terrible one.

The other thing big thing that caught my eye was Tony Sanchez's defense. He had some highlights and some lowlights. The big highlight was a put-out he made at home plate to keep the game tied in the 9th. A single was hit to left field that was fielded by Quincy Latimore and fired home. The throw was high and wide, but Sanchez made a very athletic play to go get it and then dive towards home to apply the tag. The runner made just an awful slide and had no business not being safe there, but Sanchez took advantage and got the huge out. There were some balls in the dirt that Sanchez blocked routinely, looking very comfortable in doing so. However, Sanchez made an awful throw on a dropped third strike to first late in the game. Also, he did not even attempt a tag on a play at the plate that I thought he had a shot at. There was a runner on third and a ground ball was hit to the left side of the infield, the ball was thrown to first for the out there and then fired home. Sanchez had done a nice job positioning himself in the way of the runner, forcing him to slide wide of the plate, which gave Sanchez a chance to get the out, but he neglected to even attempt a tag and the runner was safe easily.

Another thing was Starling Marte. He has had a phenomenal season for Altoona and had three hits again tonight, but there was something that confused me. He was extremely patient at the plate tonight, and not how you want your hitters to be patient. He never once even considered swinging at the first pitch, which is okay for a leadoff hitter, but you have to at least be ready to swing, and that wasn't the case for him. Another time he got the count to 3-0, and was taking all the way on the next two pitches, even though there was no one on base and two outs. Really? Bases empty and two outs, and you aren't ready to swing at a 3-1 pitch? That's the perfect time to have the green light and swing for extra bases, but Marte never even considered swinging. That confused me. However, on the 3-2 pitch, Marte singled to left and then stole 2nd immediately, which made me feel better about him temporarily. I think this kid can be a good major leaguer, but I just didn't understand what I saw from him tonight in the plate patience category.

Bryan Morris pitched three innings tonight and did not give up a run, although that was aided by a pair of brilliant run-saving defensive plays. His velocity never reached 93 from what I saw, but he did strike four batters out. It was encouraging to see him put the 0's, but the velocity just isn't enough to make me confident in his abilities at the big league level.

Andrew Lambo had a good night, collecting three hits in six at bats. His season average is now up to .278, which is a long ways from the .241 he was hitting when I wrote this post on August 2nd. He didn't show any power tonight, but it's definitely there. He's going to continue to be one of the guys I'm most interested in in the minors, just because there's a lot of potential there. He looks like a big league player, he just hasn't been hitting like one since he's joined our system. I'm not ruling him out, and I wouldn't be shocked to see him turn into a serviceable major leaguer.

That's all for now, I have a couple videos that I'll try to get up tomorrow.

Pirates vs. Cubs, Game 139

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Pittsburgh Pirates (63-75) vs. Chicago Cubs (59-79)
1:05 at Wrigley Field

Ross Ohlendorf (0-1, 6.27) vs. Casey Coleman (2-7, 7.14)


Liveblog:

Gameday: