Early Expectations - Pirates Rotation, James McDonald

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Part 1: Click Here
Part 3: Ross Ohlendorf - Click Here
Part 4: Paul Maholm - Click Here
Part 5: Kevin Correia - Click Here
Part 6: Charlie Morton - Click Here
Part 7: Wrap-up - Click Here

In the 2nd installment of my "Early Expectations - Pittsburgh Pirates Rotation" series, the focus is on James McDonald.

Not too many things went right for the Pirates pitching staff in 2010, but the acquisition of McDonald proved to be a bright spot.

The Pirates got McDonald along with Andrew Lambo in a July trade that sent Octavio Dotel to the Dodgers, and he wasted no time making an impact on the team. He struck out the first 4 batters he faced as a Pirate in a dominating performance at home in his Pirates debut. Here's McDonald's 2010 Pirates numbers:


Those numbers are solid across the board. The 3.52 ERA is very impressive as is, but the 2.91 FIP makes it even more so. Also, he was the only Pirates pitcher to have a strike out rate (K/9) better than the league average. He also did a good job at keeping his walks down. 3.4 isn't a great number, but good enough when you're striking out batters at the rate he was. One thing you have to keep in mind through all of this is that McDonald made only 11 starts, so it's a small sample size.

No one really expected him to be that dominant, but it wasn't a total fluke either, because he used to be a top prospect in the Dodgers system. To further prove that point, let's take a look at McDonald's pitch f/x's for the entire 2010 season:




McDonald has good velocity on his fastball, good break on his curveball, and a pretty slow, deceiving changeup that he used really well as a Pirate last year. The major league average whiff rate for a curveball is 10.45%, and the average whiff rate for a changeup is 12.13%, so McDonald was well above average for both of those pitches. This, among other things found in these charts, show that McDonald had a plus-curveball and a plus-changeup last year. However, in 2009, that same thing could not be said. His whiff rates were significantly lower in 2009 (8.2% on the curveball and 8.4% on the changeup), and his location was also worse. This is probably attributed to the simple fact that McDonald was improving with more playing time and maturity, but that big of a jump in whiff rate seems a little fluky. I don't think McDonald will put up whiff numbers in the 14's for his curve and change, but it should still be pretty safely above league average.

So what should we expect from James McDonald in 2011? Well, he is a 26 year old with good stuff and former top prospect status, so history tells us that he should keep getting better. However, I don't expect him to put up another 2.91 FIP. I think the small sample size can be misleading, and he was certainly helped by the fact that batters didn't have a lot of tape on him as a starting pitcher. Stuff wise, I think he performed near his peak in his brief time with the Pirates in 2010. Hopefully I am wrong when I say that and he gets better next year, but it's unlikely.

McDonald has good stuff and good control, which should result in another high strikeout rate in 2011. There's no reason that his control can't improve even more, and the fact that he has job security as a starter this year should help him improve his walk rates as well. McDonald will still suffer from the Pirates bad infield play, but he will not be affected as much as the other pitchers because he will be striking out more batters. He'll go into the season as the Pirates #1 starter, and I expect him to finish the season as that as well. He wouldn't be the #1 starter on many other teams, but I'd say that his 2011 season will be good enough to make him an average #2 and a good #3 for most teams.

2011 Prediction: 3.60 ERA, 3.35 FIP, 8.2 K/9, 3.1 BB/9

Early Expectations - Pirates Rotation, Part 1

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I'm launching my first "look forward to 2011" series pretty early this year. This series of posts is going to take a close look at the Pirates starting pitching last year and compare it to what we expect to happen in 2011, one pitcher at a time.

Part 2: James McDonald - Click Here
Part 3: Ross Ohlendorf - Click Here
Part 4: Paul Maholm - Click Here
Part 5: Kevin Correia - Click Here
Part 6: Charlie Morton - Click Here
Part 7: Wrap-up - Click Here

The Pirates lost 105 games last year, and a lot of that falls on the pitching. Last year's Pittsburgh Pirates team put up a 5.00 ERA altogether. The starters put up a 5.28 ERA, which ranks at the bottom of the league. Here's how it looked when we look at all 162 starts the Pirates got last year:



Jeff Karstens, Brian Burres, Daniel McCutchen, Brad Lincoln, and Dana Eveland all made appearances for the Pirates out of the bullpen; those innings were not counted in the above data, only innings that came from a start were counted.

One thing we can see from this data is that the Pirates starters averaged about 5.2 innings per start. Now that would have to be slightly adjusted for all those road losses where the Pirates pitching staff only pitched 8 innings, but the point remains - the Pirates pitchers didn't go nearly deep enough into games last year.

Like pitching, luck is a huge part of baseball. When you just look at ERA, you can also be mislead as to how good the pitchers actually were. The Pirates had one of the worst defensive infields in the league in 2010, which undoubtably hurt the pitchers. Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) is a sabermetric statistic that leaves defense and park factors out of the equation. This lets us take more of a look at how exactly each pitcher performed, by himself. Here's the numbers:



As you can see, the Pirates pitchers were not helped by the defense much. Six of the nine pitchers listed (ignoring Eveland and Jakubauskas) had FIPs higher than their ERAs. The Pirates upgraded their defense at first base this offseason with the addition of Lyle Overbay, but they will still have Neil Walker, Ronny Cedeno, and Pedro Alvarez rounding out the rest of the infield, which will continue to be a well below average unit. Expect the Pirates pitchers to suffer from that and again post higher FIPs than ERAs next year.

Another big element of pitching is strikeouts. Once a ball is put into play, there is nothing the pitcher can do to control the outcome (unless it is hit at him). The biggest way a pitcher can control the outcome is to strike the batter out. If the ball is never put in play, the defense is not a factor. Strikeouts were no exception for this pitching staff, as they again ranked near the bottom of the league in the category. Strikeouts per 9 innings pitched is, in my opinion, the best way to judge a pitcher's strikeout ability. Let's take a look at how the pitchers faired in K/9:



The league leader in K/9 in 2010 was Tim Lincecum of the San Francisco Giants, with a ratio of 9.9. The National League average was 7.4. The Pirates had 1 pitcher over the league average, and that was James McDonald who made only 11 starts for us.

The Pirates signed Kevin Correia and Scott Olsen this offseason. Correia will be in the rotation at the beginning of the season and should be a pretty substantial upgrade from Zach Duke, whom the Pirates nontendered. It is also apparent that the Pirates are still trying to sign another starter. Rumored names have included Jeff Francis and Brandon Webb. We'll get more on those guys later on in this series.

That's it for part 1, but be sure to check back for part 2 in the next couple days, where we'll look at the expected improvement, or lack thereof, in the returning Pirates starters.

2012 Free Agents

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As a Pirate fan, it's never too early to start looking at the future. Normally we wouldn't look the whole way past an entire season of baseball, but in this case I think it's appropriate.

Recently the Pirates have been signing some big league players in free agency, however they have failed to get any big time help to the rotation. It's no secret to anyone that if the Pirates are going to compete for a playoff spot in 2011 or 2012, their pitching is going to have to improve a ton. Now, it looks doubtful that the Pirates will sign any pitchers the rest of this offseason, although recently the names of Jeff Francis and Brandon Webb (Webb recently signed with Texas) have come up again. The price for them will continue to rise as other pitchers keep coming off the market, and I don't see the Pirates writing a big check to get either of those guys.

So that means that 2011 will probably be another losing season for the Pirates, although there is a better chance to be competitive this year then last year. However, our hopes are best invested in the 2012 season, when some of the young pitchers in the system will be ready to be full time competitors in the major leagues. Guys like Rudy Owens, Bryan Morris, and Justin Wilson all have good chances to be serious contributors to the 2012 team. However, all 3 of those guys have huge question marks, and with the Pirates track record, there's a lot of reason to doubt.

So that said, there is a very good chance that the Pirates will be looking to spend big on pitching in the offseason next year. So let's take a look at what pitchers will be free agents this time next year, as told by mlbtraderumors.com.

Mark Buehrle (33)
Chris Carpenter (37) - $15MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Aaron Cook (33) - $11MM mutual option with a $500K buyout
Kyle Davies (28)
Ryan Dempster (35) - $14MM player option
Zach Duke (29) - mutual option
Jeff Francis (30)
Jon Garland (32) - vesting option
Aaron Harang (34) - mutual option
Rich Harden (30)
Livan Hernandez (37)
Edwin Jackson (28)
Kenshin Kawakami (37)
Scott Kazmir (28) - $13.5MM club option with a $2.5MM buyout
Hiroki Kuroda (37)
Paul Maholm (30) - $9.75MM club option with a $750K buyout
Jason Marquis (33)
Gil Meche (33)
Sergio Mitre (31)
Scott Olsen (28) - $4MM club option
Roy Oswalt (34) - $16MM mutual option with a $2MM buyout
Vicente Padilla (34)
Oliver Perez (30)
Joel Pineiro (33)
Wandy Rodriguez (33)
C.C. Sabathia (31) - may opt out of remaining four years, $92MM
Carlos Silva (33) - $12MM mutual option with a $2MM buyout
Javier Vazquez (35)
Adam Wainwright (30) - $10MM vesting option for '12, $12MM for '13
Tim Wakefield (45)
Chien-Ming Wang (32)
C.J. Wilson (31)

The big name on there is Adam Wainwright, who has been in Cy Young talks the last few years. He would certainly have a huge price tag and the Cardinals are likely to try and extend him before we even reach the offseason, but an interesting name nonetheless. More reasonable names we see there are Rich Harden, Jon Garland, Gil Meche, C.J. Wilson, Aaron Cook, Jason Marquis, among others.

It's a pretty thin market in terms of top of the rotation starters, but it shouldn't be hard to get a solid 3-4 starter to compliment an already (hopefully) emerging rotation featuring Ross Ohlendorf, James McDonald, Rudy Owens, and Bryan Morris.

Merry Christmas

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Merry McChristmas

from The "Mc" Effect

2011 Lineups

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The Pirates have made a handful of moves this off season that will have an impact on what their major league team looks like in 2011. My guess is that the major free agent signings are over on the offensive side. Hopefully the Pirates will add some more pitching, but I'm confident in saying that we can start projecting what the 2011 lineup will look like. I'll go ahead and take a crack at it.

There will certainly be a platoon in right field, and there is now an opportunity for a platoon at first base. My guess is that Garrett Atkins will not get any opportunity to start in the majors, unless there's an injury, so he won't be mentioned in this post. Here's what it looks like, right now:

Pirates vs. right handed pitchers:

1. Andrew McCutchen, CF
2. Jose Tabata, LF
3. Neil Walker, 2B
4. Pedro Alvarez, 3B
5. Garrett Jones, RF
6. Lyle Overbay, 1B
7. Chris Snyder, C
8. Ronny Cedeno, SS
9. Pitcher

Pirates vs. left handed pitchers:

1. Andrew McCutchen, CF
2. Jose Tabata, LF
3. Neil Walker, 2B
4. Pedro Alvarez, 3B
5. Lyle Overbay, 1B
6. Matt Diaz, RF
7. Chris Snyder, C
8. Ronny Cedeno, SS
9. Pitcher

If the Pirates hold on to Ryan Doumit, which doesn't seem very likely, he will probably make a lot of starts at catcher against righties, as well as making a couple starts in right field. There's not a whole lot that will change as the year goes on, in terms of minor leaguers. Last year, we were anticipating the arrivals of Tabata and Alvarez, and were pleasantly surprised with Walker's performance. This year the only guy you can point at that will come from the minors and start in the majors is Chase d'Arnaud. d'Arnaud is no where near the calibur prospect that Tabata and Alvarez were, but if he works out he will certainly be an upgrade from Cedeno.

All-in-all that's a pretty decent lineup, the best the Pirates have had in a long time. We're not gonna be at the top of the league in scoring or anything, but it should be good enough to be competitive. The pitching is still no where near good enough to have the team actually compete in 2011, but it will at least be a better brand of baseball being played.

Pirates Acquire Atkins, Wimberly, and Thompson

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The Pirates have had a busy couple of days, and have made some pretty influential signings the last few days.

Corey Wimberly:
Wimberly is a 27 year old utility player that was drafted in the 6th round of the 2005 draft by the Colorado Rockies. He played 135 games for the Athletics triple-A team last year. He hit .284/.373/.354 in that time while playing all over the field. He played 50 games in left field, 39 games in center, 31 at shortstop, 17 at third base, and 11 at second base. He stole 56 bases in his 135 games, which is pretty impressive and says a lot for his athleticism. Wimberly doesn't have the makings of anything but a bench player, and probably won't be in Pittsburgh at any point in 2011, but he's a good organizational depth guy to have and can be used in a lot of ways.

Garrett Atkins:
Atkins is a very popular name, he was one of the best third baseman in the National League in 2006, hitting .329/.409/.556 with 29 home runs. His numbers have fallen steadily ever since that year, and he posted a career low .214/.276/.286 last year with the Orioles (in only 44 games). Atkins plays third and first base. The Pirates signed him to a minor league deal, but he has a good chance at being in the majors if he performs well in spring training. He would be best used in a platoon at first base with Overbay; Atkins is a career .294/.379/.467 hitter against left handers, while while Overbay hits .259/.308/.402 off them. Overbay hits .279/.375/.463 off righties, so a platoon with those two guys could work out pretty well. I'd be surprised if the two them were able to hit over 30 homers combined for the Pirates, so they wouldn't be the best power hitting options at first base, but they should hit well enough to knock in McCutchen, Tabata, Walker, and Alvarez, whom we are expecting to be on base quite a lot in 2011. I like the acquisition of Atkins and hope he can turn his career around and put up better numbers in 2011.

Aaron Thompson:
The Pirates picked up Thompson off waivers after they DFA'd Wil Ledezma. Thompson was a first round draft pick in 2005, and will be 24 years old by seasons beginning. This move was necessary because Ledezma is one of the only left handed relief pitchers available right now. Thompson has never pitched in the major leagues, which makes this move kind of questionable. In 2010, he pitched 136.2 innings in double-A and 5 innings in triple-A, all as a starter. He had a 5.80 ERA with 1.79 K/BB in double-A, which doesn't really seem to warrant that promotion to me, but whatever. Thompson doesn't seem like a major league ready pitcher, but he will most likely be turned into a reliever, and could be successful in the majors just because he is a lefty. He would surely be used a specialist, which really should help him out. I don't understand letting go Ledezma, but in fairness, he was not good last year, racking up a 6.86 ERA in 19.2 innings for the Pirates. He was extremely good in triple-A which earned him the call-up, but less than 20 innings doesn't seem like a big enough sample to warrant the Pirates giving up on him.

There's a lot to talk about with the signing of Atkins, the first thing being the possibility of the platoons at first and right field next year. Also, the move shows that the Pirates really don't have much faith in Steve Pearce anymore, and I would be surprised to see him in the majors again.

I'll talk more about this when I have a little more time. I've been hitting the tweets hard lately, so be sure to check me out @McEffect.

Quick Break

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So I'm heading out of town for a week to celebrate Christmas with my family, so I won't be posting on here until at least next Wednesday (unless something big happens). I'll still be hitting up that twitter account a lot though, so definitely check me out there.

Merry Christmas to all of you, and try not to miss me too much ;)

Quincy Latimore

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Name: Quincy Latimore
Position: Outfielder
Birth Date: February 3, 1989
Height: 5'10''
Weight: 175
Bats: Right
Throws: Right

College/HS: Middle Creek HS
Acquired: 2007 Draft, 4th Round
Major League ETA: 2013
McEffect Report:
Latimore is one of the better outfield prospects in the Pirates minor league system, but ranks lower on the list because of his age and lack of experience. He has been with the Pirates for 4 years, and has not earned a in-season promotion to any level yet, spending one year in the Gulf Coast League, one year with the State College Spikes, one year with the West Virginia Power, and most recently, one year with the Bradenton Marauders. In his minor league career he has hit .256/.312/.418, nothing too impressive, but he has hit for some good power. In 2010 he hit 19 home runs in 134 games and got his slugging percentage up to a career high .444. He even drove in 100 runs in 2010, which doesn't really mean much but is still a pretty impressive number. Latimore will play for the Altoona Curve this year and I wouldn't be surprised to see him spend the entire year with them. No need to rush him with the Pirates current outfield situation. He could turn into a legitimate power threat and play right field for the Bucs, but not any time before mid-2013.

Josh Harrison

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Name: Josh Harrison
Position: Third Base, Second Base
Birth Date: July 8, 1987
Height: 5'8''
Weight: 175
Bats: Right
Throws: Right

College/HS: Cincinnati
Acquired: Trade for John Grabow/Tom Gorzelanny
Major League ETA: 2012
McEffect Report:
Nobody was too excited when the Pirates acquired Harrison, just because that trade with the Cubs seemed incredibly one-sided. Harrison came over as a third baseman but has played second a lot with double-A Altoona. That move was definitely a good one because at 5'8'', 175 pounds, Harrison doesn't profile to be a power hitter, which is what you look for in a third baseman. He has hit for good average in his minor league career, and had a great season in 2010 posting a .300/.345/.398 line with 19 stolen bases in a full season with the Altoona Curve. He was one of the best players on the team all summer long and will look to continue his successes when he joins the Indianapolis Indians at some point this coming summer. Harrison probably will never be an everyday major leaguer, but could fill a void (that will be left by Pedro Alvarez's move to first base) for the Pirates at 2nd or 3rd the next few summers until they have more viable option at third base (e.g. Anthony Rendon).

Andrew Lambo

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Name: Andrew Lambo
Position: Outfielder
Birth Date: August 11, 1988
Height: 6'3''
Weight: 190
Bats: Left
Throws: Left

College/HS: Newbury Park High School
Acquired: Trade (for Octavio Dotel)
Major League ETA: 2012
McEffect Report:
The acquisition of Andrew Lambo was secondary to James McDonald in the Octavio Dotel deal, but could turn out being just as good if not better. Lambo was a former number 1 prospect in the Dodgers system before an unsuccessful 2009 season. He has had some fluctuation in performance during his minor league career, but at the age of 22 it's very possible that the Dodgers gave up on him too soon. After hitting .295/.351/.482 with 18 bombs in 2008, he dropped to .256/.311/.407 with 11 homers in 2009. He came to Pittsburgh in late summer of 2010, and finished up his season in Altoona and arrived at a combined line of .272/.334/.397. Lambo has definitely struggled in his last couple seasons, but could definitely bounce back to near top prospect status and be a serious piece for the future of this team. He also holds some trade value just because of his former top prospect rating. 2011 will be a huge season for Lambo, and his performance this year will definitely determine his future with the organization.

Chase d'Arnaud

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Name: Chase d'Arnaud
Position: Shortstop
Birth Date: January 21, 1987
Height: 6'2''
Weight: 200
Bats: Right
Throws: Right

College/HS: Pepperdine
Acquired: 2008 Draft, 4th Round
Major League ETA: 2011
McEffect Report:
d'Arnaud (pronounced dar-no) was drafted by the Pirates in the 4th round of the 2008 draft and his stock as risen since. He is a very solid defender, and has had success with the bat at every level he's played at. He's been in the system for 4 years now and his lowest batting average is .286, and that was in his first year. In 2009 he hit .293/.398/.454 in a season split between single-A and double-A, a very impressive line for a middle infielder. However, his offense nearly disappeared in 2010 with a .247/.331/.377 line in 132 games at double-A Altoona; an incredibly disappointing season for Pirates fans. Despite that, he remains the Pirates best shortstop prospect in the system and really the only one that could turn into a good major league starter someday. He has the defensive abilities to make it, but his offensive numbers are going to have look more like 2009 than 2010 if he wants to make it. The Pirates will hope for a bounce-back year in 2011, and if they get it they will look to have him in the majors by mid-season.

Alex Presley

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Name: Alex Presley
Position: Centerfield
Birth Date: July 25, 1985
Height: 5'9''
Weight: 180
Bats: Left
Throws: Left

College/HS: Mississippi
Acquired: 2006 Draft, 8th Round
Major League ETA: 2010
McEffect Report:
Presley is the first prospect on the list that has already played some major league games. He had a brief stint with the Pirates last year in September, hitting .261/.292/.304 in 23 at bats. Presley has some decent numbers in the minors, including last year in the minors when he hit .320/.373/.494 with 12 home runs and 85 RBI between double-A Altoona and triple-A Indianapolis. Unfortunately for Presley, he is already 26 years old and will not have the opportunity to get any major league playing time because of the presence of Andrew McCutchen and Jose Tabata. Presley is a good guy to have in the system just for depth and could have some major league impact as a bench player or a fill-in in case of injury.

Zack Dodson

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Name: Zack Dodson
Position: Left Handed Pitcher
Birth Date: July 23, 1990
Height: 6'2''
Weight: 190
Bats: Left
Throws: Left

College/HS: Medina Valley HS
Acquired: 2009 Draft, 4th Round
Major League ETA: 2013
McEffect Report:
Zack Dodson is another strong lefty the Pirates have in the system. He doesn't throw nearly as hard as Taillon or even Heredia, but he sits at 91-92 but counters it with a good curveball and a solid changeup. There's a good chance this guy can make it to the big leagues just because the quality of all 3 of his pitches. He isn't going to have stellar stuff, but if his location continues to improve he could easily be a very good 3-4 starter. Interesting note on Dodson - he hit .465 and led his high school team in home runs in his senior year.

Mel Rojas Jr.

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Name:Mel Rojas Jr.
Position:CF
Birth Date:May 24, 1990
Height:6'3''
Weight:200
Bats:Switch
Throws:Right

College/HS:Wabash Valley CC
Acquired:2010 Draft, 3rd Round
Major League ETA:2013
McEffect Report:
Mel Rojas. Jr was an after thought for Pirates fans in the 2010 draft. His selection followed the Pirates drafting Jameson Taillon and Stetson Allie, which led to Rojas flying under the radar a little bit. In his junior college career, he hit .396 with 12 home runs and 61 stolen bases in 230 at bats. Rojas is a 5-tool athlete with the ability to help a team in a lot of ways. However, a few of those tools might not stay with him as he moves up the ranks in the Pirates minor league system. He doesn't project to hit for much power in the majors, and he might not be quick enough to be a centerfielder or steal a lot of bases. However, his arm is good enough to move to warrant a move to right field. Keep an eye on Rojas this year, he should put up some pretty impressive numbers in the lower levels of the minor leagues.

Lyle Over - yawn - bay

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So the Pirates signed Lyle Overbay out of nowhere today. Normally I try to be optimistic about the Pirates moves and signings, but this one I just can't figure out.

I don't have a lot of time to right this, so I'll be make it simple. Here's Overbay's line for 2010:

154 G, 20 HR, .243 BA, .329 OBP, .433 SLG, .762 OPS

...and here's Garrett Jones 2010 line, the guy that Overbay will be fighting for playing time with

158 G, 21 HR, .247 BA, .306 OBP, .414 SLG, .720 OPS

The two lines are nearly identical.

Why would the Pirates sign a guy that is going to put up the same numbers as a guy they already have? Overbay has less upside than Jones and his numbers have been steadily declining the last couple of years. Not too mention that this takes away playing time from Steve Pearce and John Bowker, both young guys that have upside but need big league at bats.

All this does is add another below average name to an already clustered competition for 1st base and right field playing time. This all but guarantees that either Pearce or Bowker is left off the 25-man roster at the beginning of the season, and Overbay is not going to make any difference in the win column. If he has a career season, he still wouldn't make a huge impact for the Pirates, and he would just be holding back the young guys that need to be evaluated further at the big league level.

In my opinion, there is no way that this signing benefits the Pirates, in any way. Bonehead move by Neil Huntington. Here's hoping Overbay gets cut in spring training.

Morton vs. Lincoln

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I took poll yesterday asking my readers who they'd rather see in the starting rotation between Charlie Morton and Brad Lincoln. There weren't too many responses, Sunday is more of a Steelers day, but I got about 18 votes total, and 12 of them were for Morton. I was kind of surprised by that, but it really shows that the Pirate fans who read blogs really know their stuff. Let's show you why:

Morton:
Charlie had big expectations coming into the 2010 season. Pirate fans were looking for him to become one of the best pitchers in the rotation and solidify himself as a solid 2-3 starter for the next handful of years. However, Morton did not answer the call. He was never even in the same room as the phone. His numbers were awful. It hurts me to even write them. He was 2-12 with a 7.57 ERA, a 1.732 WHIP, giving up 12.7 hits per nine innings, all in 17 starts. Now that looks bad, but I'm gonna do my best to make it sound a little better.

Most of those bad numbers were constructed in his first 10 starts of the season, before he was demoted. In those first 10 starts, he was 1-9 with a 9.35 ERA and a .342 batting average against. His BABIP was extremely high at .362 but that was largely attributed to the fact that hitters were squaring the ball up very easily and hitting it hard. At this point in the season Morton was statistically the worst pitcher in the major leagues, by far. The Pirates had no choice but to demote him to triple-A Indianapolis. He started off pretty rough there as well, but eventually bounced back and pitched pretty well and got called back up to the majors in late August.

From August 29th to the end of the season, Morton went 1-3 with a 5.45 ERA and a .319 batting average against. Okay, those numbers are lousy as well, but he showed definite improvement.

A huge part of Morton's 2010 season was bad luck. Now more skeptical fans say that's just being too optimistic and trying to cover up the obvious inability of Morton, and those fans definitely have a standing in that position, but they are going against proven statistics. Morton struck out 6.7 batters per 9, which is respectable (but not really helpful last year considering the short outings he had), and his walks per nine was at 2.9, not terrible either. Morton's xFIP for the year was 4.26, which is incredible considering his 7.57 ERA. I don't know for a fact, but I'm sure that that's one of the biggest ERA-xFIP differentials in the major leagues in a long time. Basically that says that Morton gave up over 3 more runs per nine innings than he should have because of bad luck, poor defense, and park conditions. Morton's 2010 WAR (wins above replacement) was -0.1, which means that his performance was equal to a good triple-A pitcher. Most fans would have said that he was much, much worse than a triple-A player in 2010, but the sabermetrics say differently.

So am I saying that Morton wasn't a terrible major league pitcher last year? No, he most certainly was. What I am saying is that he wasn't as bad as his numbers say he was. Now his numbers were so bad that saying that doesn't really mean much. However, he pitched well enough in the minors after his demotion and in the majors after his promotion to earn another look in 2011. Also, Morton pitched well in fall league. The Bill James predictions for 2011 have Morton posting 6.51 K/9, 3.64 BB/9, a .321 BABIP, and a 4.50 ERA. I'll take those numbers any day in the year following the disaster that was Morton's 2010 season.

Brad Lincoln:
Lincoln had his much anticipated major league debut in 2010, and like the rest of the Pirates pitching staff, didn't impress anybody. He went 1-4 with a 6.66 ERA, a 1.538 WHIP, giving up 11.3 H/9, striking out 4.3 batters per 9, and walking 2.6 batters per nine. He had 4 'quality starts' in his 9 starts, giving up the maximum 3 runs in the minimum 6 innings 3 of those 4 times.

There was nothing absolutely terrible about Lincoln in 2010, so that's the good news. The bad news is that there was really nothing really good about him either. He had one start in Chicago where he shut out the Cubs for 7 innings and struck out 6 batters, but that was the only start that got anybody excited about him. The weird part about Lincoln is that he lost some velocity upon his promotion. He was throwing 93-95 in triple-A, but in the majors his fastball's average velocity was 91.6. Don't ask me how or why that happened, but it did and Lincoln is going to have to keep that velocity up in the mid 90's if he wants to be a good major leaguer.

Lincoln is still young and still has minor league statistics that say he can be a good major league starter, but what I saw from him last year doesn't make me want to see him in a Pirates uniform ever again. However, you can't judge much of anything from a big league starter in only 9 starts, so he also deserves another look.


So I've said the same things about both of these pitchers. They both struggled in 2010, but for their own individual reasons, they both deserve more playing time in the majors. The question is, who deserves it more? With Ross Ohlendorf, James McDonald, Kevin Correia, and Paul Maholm penciled in as the 1-4 starters, which of these two guys should take the 5 spot?

For me, it comes down to their "stuff". The pitches they throw and how effective they are. Here's each pitcher's pitch F/X and the pitch results.

Morton:




Lincoln:




The stuff advantage clearly goes to Morton. Keeping in mind that Lincoln has a really small sample size, Morton has better whiff rates, better movement on his pitches, and better velocity. Those 3 things are pretty vital to a major league pitcher.

Bottom line, I think the Pirates owe both of these pitchers major league innings in 2011, but I think Morton should get the first crack at it and be in the opening day starting rotation.

Morton vs. Lincoln Poll

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In the next few days I will be writing a post about Brad Lincoln and Charlie Morton. First, I would just like to take a quick poll and see who my readers like better between these two. So go ahead, help me out and vote. Thanks all.




Short on Stops

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A couple days ago we were talking about the Pirates being contenders to get J.J. Hardy or Jason Bartlett in trades to replace Ronny Cedeno in the 2011 starting lineup. However, Hardy was traded to the Orioles, and Bartlett went to the Padres, which led to the Pirates selection of Josh Rodriguez in the Rule 5 Draft.

So right now the Pirates have Cedeno and Rodriguez as their major league shortstops, with Pedro Ciriaco being the emergency call-up. It's evident that the Pirates are not content with this, which is a good sign since they really should not be.

Cedeno's a career .245/.284/.640 hitter, which is bad even from the shortstop position. His defense is average at best, and those two things together make for a pretty lackluster baseball player. Rodriguez has never played a game in the major leagues and doesn't really project to be anything but a bench utility man. Although Rodriguez does have some pop in his bat and some definite upside, it's not enough to warrant sending him and Cedeno into the 2011 season as the 2 best shortstops if you can avoid it.

Now it's no surprise that the Pirates will have below-average players starting in the major leagues in 2011. They've had these kinds of players in the lineup every year since I've been alive. I'm not writing this from the perspective that the Pirates have a problem in the lineup and need to fix it immediately. At this point it wouldn't really matter if the Pirates had Hanley Ramirez in the lineup next year, they probably still wouldn't make the playoffs. What I want to look at is the future of the position. So let's go.

Outside of Cedeno and Rodriguez, this is what the Pirates have in the system in terms of shortstops:

Pedro Ciriaco
2011 Opening Day Level: AAA Indianapolis
Ciriaco was a part of the trade with the Diamondbacks that sent D.J. Carrasco, Ryan Church, and Bobby Crosby to Arizona, and also got the Pirates Chris Snyder. He's a right-handed, 26 year old defensive-minded shortstop. His defense was good enough to earn him honors as the top-rated defensive shortstop in the Southern League in the 2009 season. His bat doesn't project to have much impact in the major leagues, although he has put up some pretty decent numbers in the minors. In 2009 with the Diamondbacks double-A team, he hit .296/.319/.367, and .265/.281/.387 in 2010 split between two triple-A teams. He hit for more power in 2010, with 24 doubles, 8 triples, and 6 home runs in 119 games, but everything else was much worse. At his age it's hard to say that he is going to get better with the bat, but if he could come into the majors hitting .270 and playing the kind of defense he does, he would be better than Cedeno is, however it's still probably not good enough. Ciriaco might help the Pirates out a little bit in 2011 if Cedeno or Rodriguez gets hurt or plays even worse than expected, but he's definitely not a guy that's going to be a major league starter anywhere.

Chase d'Arnaud
2011 Opening Day Level: AAA Indianapolis
d'Arnaud has a weird last name, so we're just gonna call him Chase from here on. He was drafted by the Pirates in the 4th round of the 2008 draft and his stock as risen since. He is a very solid defender, and has had success with the bat at every level he's played at. He's been in the system for 4 years now and his lowest batting average is .286, and that was in his first year. In 2009 he hit .293/.398/.454 in a season split between single-A and double-A, a very impressive line for a middle infielder. However, his offense nearly disappeared in 2010 with a .247/.331/.377 line in 132 games at double-A Altoona; an incredibly disappointing season for Pirates fans. Despite that, he remains the Pirates best shortstop prospect in the system and really the only one that could turn into a good major league starter someday. He has the defensive abilities to make it, but his offensive numbers are going to have look more like 2009 than 2010 if he wants to make it. The Pirates will hope for a bounce-back year in 2011, and if they get it they will look to have him in the majors by mid-season.

Brian Friday
2011 Opening Day Level: AAA Indianapolis
Friday was a third round draft pick in 2007 out of Rice University, where he played with the aforementioned Josh Rodriguez. There's nothing outstanding about Friday's game, but he doesn't have any glaring holes either. He hit .265/.361/.386 in 2009 with double-A Altoona and .257/.347/.378 in his 93 games with triple-A Indianapolis in 2010. He missed some time with injury and played 10 games between rookie ball and Bradenton, but I didn't factor those numbers into that line. As you can see, he doesn't hit for good average, which wouldn't be a huge problem in the major leagues but it's likely that his averages would drop upon promotion to the Pirates, so we can't expect him to be an average hitter in the majors. He has little power and not enough speed to justify a spot in a major league batting order. He is a smart player with a good eye at the plate and good defensive prowess, but there just doesn't seem to be enough there for him to ever make it in the majors.

Jordy Mercer
2011 Opening Day Level: AA Altoona
Mercer was drafted by the Pirates in the 3rd round of the 2008 draft, and has some good upside. First of all, let me say that is not a shortstop primarily any longer. In 2010 he played only 20 games at shortstop, compared to 54 at third base, and 49 at second. He does still have the ability to play shortstop, and play it pretty well. His defense doesn't compare to Ciriaco or d'Arnaud, and his body doesn't really fit into either, being 6'3'' and just shy of 200 pounds. In 2009, Mercer hit .255/.314/.400 with 10 home runs in 131 games with the single-A Lynchburg Hillcats. Unlike the rest of the guys on this list, he improved in 2010 (even with being promoted to double-A, hitting .282/.329/.373, although his home runs dropped off to 3. Mercer doesn't project to be a major league shortstop, but it's not out of the question, and he could provide above average offense along with good defense at second base. There's still a lot of things to be worked out with his game however, so don't expect to see him in Pittsburgh next season, regardless of his performance.

Brock Holt
2011 Opening Day Level: AA Altoona
Holt was a 9th round selection in the 2009 draft. In 2009 he played at State College and posted a .299/.361/.449 line with 6 home runs in 66 games. If that doesn't impress you, the .351/.410/.438 line he posted in 2010 with Bradenton should. He did all that in only 47 games, so there's not a big sample size to look at here, but his performance has been good for what it's worth. Holt is a small guy at 5'10'', 165, so he's not going to be a power hitter, but he definitely has the ability to progress through the system quickly and become a serious major league prospect in a couple years. He is good with the bat, has good plate patience and plays sound defense. Definitely a guy to keep an eye on here.

Jarek Cunningham
2011 Opening Day Level:
Cunningham is a very interesting player. He missed his senior year in high school with a knee injury and saw his stock drop significantly because of it, which gave the Pirates the chance to draft him in the 18th round of the 2008 draft. If he had stayed healthy, he would have gone in the first 5 rounds, easily. He started his pro career off with a .318/.385/.507 line in 43 games with the Gulf Coast Pirates. Cunningham was prepared to be the starter for the West Virginia Power in 2009, but tore his ACL in March and missed the entire season. He came back in 2010 and struggled at the plate with a .258/.309/.436 line. He hit 12 home runs in 121 games, which shows some upside. He will turn 21 on Christmas Day, so he's got a lot of time ahead of him. He hasn't actually played shortstop since 2008, which probably should have pushed him off the list, but I wanted to talk about him anyway. He played 2nd base exclusively in 2010, and has the athletic ability to play shortstop as well. However, my bet is that they keep him at 2nd and even try him out at 3rd some more (where he played 26 games in 2008). Cunningham has a long road ahead of him, but has the ability to be a major leaguer someday.


So those are the main shortstops in the system. There are a few more possibilities that played in the low-A regions of the system last year, but they are still at least a year away from even being discussed as major leaguers. Overall, the system is very shallow at middle infield, especially short stop. Chase d'Arnaud is our best hope at being an above average major league shortstop, but I wouldn't put much money on him.

This leads me to my actual point.

The Pirates have been linked to Brendan Ryan and Bill Hall in the last few days. This may or may not be true, but there's no doubt that the Pirates are still testing the market for big league ready shortstops. I don't exactly agree with this. Ryan and Hall would be 1 or 2 year deals, and wouldn't do much for the future of the Pirates. We are past the phase of this rebuilding process that requires adding talent to the minor leagues at all cost, but I still think there are major holes in the system. One of the biggest holes is the middle infield positions, and I think the Pirates would be better served going after double-A and triple-A prospects that could actually turn into good major league starters instead of chasing Ryan and Hall to play the position in 2011 (only slightly better than Cedeno would, I might add). We still need to be looking at this in terms of the x-years process. If we're going to win soon, it's going to be in the years past 2011. Unless some miracle happens, 2011 will be another losing season for the Bucs. There's no need in throwing more money at major league players that won't contribute to 2012 or 2013.

If it were up to me, I play the 2011 season out with Cedeno and Rodriguez and stay on the close lookout for possibilities to add serious middle infield prospects to the system.

Josh Rodriguez

Comments
The Rule 5 Draft was yesterday, and the Pirates selected short stop Josh Rodriguez from the Cleveland Indians. All the other Pirates blogs have already written about him, so there's no real need for me to cover it right now, since I'm so late on it. So instead of writing an intelligent baseball post, I'll just show you some pictures of the dude!





Kinda looks like Cedeno.

But I like the acquisition. Should be a good backup shortstop with some future starter upside. I'm still kinda let down that the Pirates couldn't get Hardy or even Bartlett, but this is better than nothing.

Stop Signing Starters

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The Pirates had a historically bad pitching season in 2010. So far this offseason, they have countered that by signing Scott Olsen and Kevin Correia. There were reports on Wednesday and Thursday that the Pirates were close to a deal with the Braves that would bring pitcher Kenshin Kawakami to Pittsburgh.

Now no deal has been made yet, but I am going to write the rest of this post assuming that the Pirates do acquire him. I'll leave the stats and predictions out of it until they do make the deal, for now I just want to say a couple more general things.

After the Olsen and Correia acquisitions, I wasn't completely satisfied. I really wanted to see the Pirates get a high-ceiling guy, even if it meant risking some bigger money in it. I wrote posts about my interest in Justin Duscherer and Brandon Webb, but the Pirates chose a different route. Now I'm not going to come out and say that it was the wrong thing to do, no one can say that for sure. There's no telling what the future holds, Duscherer and Webb could both continue with their injury problems and cost whatever team that signs them some money for little return.

That said, there's little doubt in my mind that the pitching signings the Pirates have been making are done to try and get us through the 2011 season without losing 100 games again. If you think that Correia, Olsen, and Kawakami are going to push the Pirates over the mountain they are trying to climb and get them into the playoff picture, you're nuts. Heck, even if they would have signed Webb and Duscherer and enjoyed injury-free, productive seasons from them, they still would have trouble finishing .500, there would be a legitimate chance at doing it, but it would be in no way a sure thing.

I understand this thinking. The fans can't take many more of these brutal seasons, the Pirates have to show improvement eventually and get some more people interested. Correia, Olsen, Kawakami, and Matt Diaz definitely make us a better major league ballclub.

However, the focus still has to be on the future, and the future is not any of those guys. Correia got a two-year deal, so he could be a small part, but he surely isn't a guy the Pirates think will be with them down the road. The Pirates don't have much of a chance to compete in 2011, so they should be using the season to continue to develop their young players at the major league level, much like they did in 2010 with Tabata, Alvarez, and Walker. However, when you sign 3 big league starters to deals of 2 years or less, and 2 of the 3 are over the age of 30, it seems to me that you are blocking some of the younger guys.

2011 is going to be crucial year for the Pirates to see what they have in Charlie Morton and Brad Lincoln. Neither of these pitchers have had much success at the big league level, but they also haven't really had a fair amount of chances (especially Lincoln). They both have the tools to be established major league pitchers, they just need some more time. The best way to help these guys get closer to where they need to be is get them innings in the majors. There's a very good chance that neither of these guys will ever make it in the major leagues, but it would be very unwise to not give them the chance they deserve.

The Pirates are not going to be in the playoff hunt in 2011, so it is the perfect time to get a long, serious look at Lincoln and Morton in Pirates uniforms. Correia and Kawakami are going to expect to be in the rotation as long as they are healthy and pitching well, as they should since they have been successful in the majors before. The Pirates already owe spots in the rotation to James McDonald, Ross Ohlendorf, and Paul Maholm (although it appears the Pirates are seriously shopping Maholm around). That leaves only 2 spots available, one that already has Correia's name on it. The last spot should go to either Morton or Lincoln out of spring training, but if the Pirates sign Kawakami, they will be pressured to start him instead of one of those two guys, and consequently hurting the future of the Pirates.

That was a long, repetitive, rant there... but it really comes down to this:

I don't want the Pirates to sign the 36-year old Kawakami because it will take playing time away from Lincoln and Morton, both of whom actually have a chance to help the Pirates when it really matters, in 2012 and beyond.

Diaz vs. Bowker vs. Doumit vs. Milledge

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Right field is one of the positions the Pirates needed to address this offseason. They have done just that, as last night they acquired Matt Diaz, who was nontendered by the Braves a week ago. The Pirates already had nontendered Lastings Milledge, which was another option for right field in 2011, and they also have John Bowker and Ryan Doumit on the 40-man roster as of right now. Diaz, Bowker, and Doumit are the guys that would be playing right field for the Pirates, if next seasons started today. However, the Pirates are trying to unload Doumit, and have even offered to eat most of his salary to do it. Right now, I'm going to take a look at these 4 players at the plate, and in particular their splits off lefties and righties, because regardless of what happens, the Pirates are almost surely going to be platooning at right field in 2011.

Here are each players career, major league splits:

Matt Diaz:
Split PA HR BA OBP SLG OPS
vs RHP as RHB 849 14 .269 .327 .382 .710
vs LHP as RHB 797 29 .335 .373 .533 .907
John Bowker:

Split PA HR BA OBP SLG OPS
vs RHP as LHB 533 17 .248 .302 .420 .722
vs LHP as LHB 57 0 .132 .158 .151 .309
Ryan Doumit:

Split PA HR BA OBP SLG OPS
vs RHP as LHB 1442 50 .272 .336 .461 .797
vs LHP as RHB 490 9 .256 .321 .373 .694
Lastings Milledge:
Split PA HR BA OBP SLG OPS
vs RHP as RHB 1145 20 .261 .313 .377 .690
vs LHP as RHB 510 13 .289 .363 .435 .798


Who is the best against right handed batters? From these numbers, it's Doumit. However, the flaw in all of this is that John Bowker has not had as much time in the big leagues as the rest of these guys. He has less than 600 plate appearances in his career, so we can't really get a good grasp of his big league hitting ability. His career minor league line is .303/.370/.501, with very good success against righties, so that shows some upside. If Bowker continues to progress, he could be much closer to Doumit in terms of hitting right handed pitching. He is also a better defender than Doumit, so he would probably get the nod from me on Opening Day. However, there is something to be said for Doumit. Most Pittsburghers are extremely tired of him and just want him to leave, but you can't ignore .797 OPS he's posted against righties in his career. That's very good for a catcher, not as good for a right fielder, but it definitely is good enough to earn some playing time there for the Pirates next season, if he's still on the team.

With that said, if both Doumit is still on the team come April, I would give Bowker most of the starts in right field with right handed pitchers on the mound for the first month or two, and see how it goes. If he struggles, I'd find more playing time for Doumit there. Bowker has more upside overall, so he would be my guy.

Who is the best against left handed batters? It's Diaz, and it's not close. Milledge has put up decent numbers against lefties in his career, but .289/.363/.435 in not a lot of playing time doesn't match up to .335/.373/.533 in a bunch of playing time. This one doesn't even need discussion with Milledge not on the roster anymore, but it definitely shows that the Pirates made the right move in losing Milledge and picking up Diaz.

If I were making the lineups, I would also implement a platoon at first base between Garrett Jones and Steve Pearce. Now I'm still hoping more moves are made so we can get better than we are right now, but if the season started tomorrow, and I was the manager, my lineups would look like this:

Against a right-handed pitcher:
1. Andrew McCutchen
2. Jose Tabata
3. Neil Walker
4. Pedro Alvarez
5. Garrett Jones
6. John Bowker
7. Chris Snyder
8. Ronny Cedeno
9. Pitcher

Against a left-handed pitcher:
1. Andrew McCutchen
2. Jose Tabata
3. Neil Walker
4. Pedro Alvarez
5. Steven Pearce
6. Matt Diaz
7. Chris Snyder
8. Ronny Cedeno
9. Pitcher

Now, substitute J.J. Hardy for Ronny Cedeno and you've got a decent looking lineup, and a potentially dangerous one if McCutchen, Tabata, Walker, and Alvarez continue to improve.