I have been looking for another contributor recently here for the blog, and I received a number of application e-mails. My search has not yet been fully completed, but I have selected one person to help me out. His name is Tom Trudeau, and he is a baseball analyst for Bloomberg Sports. I'm excited to introduce him along with publishing his first post. And what do you know, his first post is in direct opposition to something I wrote just yesterday. Ladies and gentlemen, Tom Trudeau!
With
Alex Presley hitting the DL Monday, the Pirates’ outfield depth is lacking. Losing Presley limits the Pirates’ flexibility as Clint Hurdle will have to go to
Matt Diaz in left field, as he did on Sunday finale, or start
Xavier Paul, who had been their primary left-handed pinch hitting option off the bench. In either case, the Pirates will be forced to over-extend players during a challenging part of their schedule when they’ll need all the help they can get.
The good news is that even with
Jose Tabata’s status in the near future in doubt, the Pirates have an in-house option who could provide a boost to the team in 23-year-old outfielder,
Gorkys Hernandez.
Hernandez is not the “big bat” that Pirate fans have been hoping for, but the fact remains that a run saved with the glove is just as valuable as a run created with the bat. Hernandez has been called a “gold glove” caliber center fielder for years now, something that never changed even when the shine started to come off in recent years. Just ask the Yankees what an elite defensive outfielder is capable of –
Brett Gardner is right behind
Curtis Granderson in wins above replacement, good for 5th among AL outfielders.
Now Hernandez is not Brett Gardner, who actually has a higher wOBA than Andre Either. Still, nearly half of Gardner’s value is derived from his glove and base running. If he were just league average left fielder with the bat,
he would be Pittsburgh’s 2nd most valuable position player by almost a full win. Hernandez might not be Gardner in the field, but the point is that you don’t
have to hit a ton to be a valuable everyday player.
Given that the Pirates allow a lot of balls in play (they are dead last in the National League with 6.11 K/9), it behooves them to make sure that they have a very strong defense. To Neal Huntington’s credit, they have done that quite well, with the majority of their outfielders checking in at average to well-above average according to
ultimate zone rating. Still, Hernandez could be the elite defender that ensures the pixy dust doesn’t wear off yet on the Pirates’ pitchers.
It’s tough to say what kind of base runner Hernandez is without having seen him or any base running data. All we know about him is that he’s an elite center fielder, which means he’s plenty fast in the field, and that he has 147 stolen bases against 44 caught stealing in the minors, a 77% success rate.
How about Hernandez the hitter? Well, in his first year at AAA, Gorkys has posted a very respectable .296/.347/.405 line; each figure represents his best output since he was a member of the Braves’ organization. Still, it’s unclear exactly how many gains at the plate he’s truly made. His BB% is down from 8.0 to 5.7 percent. On the other hand, his K% of 20.2 percent is the lowest it’s been since 2008. Much of his .296 average can be explained by a very robust .376 batting average on balls in play, but a player with his speed figures to sustain higher BABIP’s than most. In fact, he has never had a BABIP below .314 and even hit .424 on balls in play during his ’09 campaign with the Braves.
Hernandez has also shown some pop this season, with a decent .110 ISO and 10 more extra base hits than he had all of last year in nearly 100 fewer plate appearances.
Overall, the numbers reflect a player who has made strides at the plate against a higher level of competition. For what it’s worth, Ben Badler at Baseball America wrote in late April that multiple scouts felt that Hernandez’ swing had made some noticeable gains. In all, he is probably someone who will struggle to hit at the big league level given his propensity to strikeout, and he might not provide much in the way of power, either. However, if he can get on base at a rate close to Diaz’ .323 rate against right-handed pitchers, his defense should make him an upgrade.
Gorkys Hernandez is worth an immediate call up and has a chance to be a keeper, even if it isn’t in centerfield. He’s young enough to continue to improve as a hitter and already talented enough as a defender to merit a call-up. Pirate fans can dream on an outfield of Tabata, McCutchen and Hernandez, where the three of them catch everything in sight and provide excitement with speed on the bases, constantly putting pressure on opposing defenses.
Tom Trudeau is a baseball analyst for Bloomberg Sports and a member of the AL-only “League of Alternative Baseball Reality” (LABR) fantasy baseball league. Follow him on Twitter @Tom_Trudeau.
