We are just days away from December, which, for baseball fans, means that the Rule 5 Draft is almost here. The Pirates have the #1 pick in the rule 5 draft, and will probably use it very seriously. They have taken players in the last 3 Rule 5 drafts (John Raynor, Donnie Veal, Evan Meek), and have seem the upside of selecting a player in the draft.
The thing with the Rule 5 Draft is that once you take a player, they have to be put on your 40 man roster immediately and be in the major leagues for the entire year (unless they are injured, in which case they can make rehab starts in the minors but have to fulfill a certain amount of service time in the majors to be eligible to be taken off the 25-man roster and still retained the following year).
Tim at piratesprospects.com made a rather in depth post about the rule-5 draft and all of the different players that the Pirates could select in the draft. He is a genius when it comes to minor league and draft stuff, so I definitely recommend reading his article. So since Tim has already done the dirty work, I'm just going to give my opinion on who the Pirates should take.
My guy is Adam Miller. This Cleveland Indians prospect was one of the top prospects in the major leagues just a few years ago, but has missed the last 2 seasons due to multiple finger surgeries and some other issues. Miller used to throw in the high-90's and even touched 100 mpg, however he has lost a lot of that velocity and now sits more in the low to mid 90's. In 2007, Miller had a 9.4 K/9 ratio in 65.1 IP, however, his ERA was a mediocre 4.82. In 2008, he posted a much better ERA of 1.88 but dropped to 6.3 K/9 in 28.2 IP. As I said, he has not pitched in a real game since then.
The injuries definitely raise a lot of flags, but reports are that he is finally healthy and ready to pitch again early this summer. The injuries could actually end up helping the Pirates, as they would be able to have him on the DL for the first month or so and get him some work in AAA before he is forced to the majors. If Miller still has the ability he used to have, he could be an effective big league starter at the age of 26. The Pirates would have to get him to the big leagues in time for him to get 90 days of service time in the 2011 season to avoid having the Rule 5 Restrictions on him in 2012. There are some questions about his injuries, but it doesn't seem like it would be a problem to have him active for those 90 days.
This is basically a free player situation, so the Pirates should take the guy with the highest ceiling with the best chance of helping us at the major league level in 2011. The rotation is going to be ugly at the beginning of the season, and Miller could definitely help out if some things go right. At the very worst, he's ineffective and doesn't get over his injury problems and the Pirates lose him for nothing. It's a low-risk situation with a potential high reward.
Of Closers and Set Up Men
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One of the view bright spots for the 2010 Pittsburgh Pirates was the performance of the back of the bullpen. Joel Hanrahan and Evan Meek were two of the best relievers in the game and the reason that no one worried when the Pirates traded away 3 of the main aspects (Dotel, Lopez, Carrasco) of their bullpen at the deadline. The other day, Joe Posnanski wrote a great article about set up men, which inspired me to write this post. Joe's stuff is a must-read for baseball enthusiasts, especially those of you who are obsessed with numbers and statistics.
Anyways, the article got me thinking about how the Pirates should utilize Hanrahan and Meek in coming years. These two will surely be the 8th and 9th inning guys for the Pirates for years to come and they should be one of the best 1-2 punches in the league.
The norm is that a big league team will have their best reliever pitch the 9th inning in close game situations. When their team is losing by a couple runs or ahead by more than 3 runs going into the 9th, teams don't always use their closers. As Joe points out in his article, it doesn't really matter what teams do, for the last 50 years teams have won around the same percentage of the games they lead heading into the 9th inning. The closer role has been extremely over inflated and overvalued in the last decade, and there are no doubt better guys pitching in the 9th inning then there were decades ago. The fact that the number of games that teams win when they lead in the 9th hasn't changed throughout all these years of change speaks volumes to say that it doesn't really matter who you have in there, you'll still win at about the same rate.
This led Joe to question a lot of the reasoning of closers. These guys get paid a lot more than other relievers, and they are often held out of games if there is not a save opportunity present. I figured I'd take a look at a couple instances of teams that have a set 8th inning guy and a set 9th inning guy in the last 2 years, and see how the numbers look. Here's what I found:
I figured I'd stay in the NL Central to start with. When I think of set-up man, I think of Arthur Rhodes. Rhodes has been setting for Francisco Cordero the last 2+ seasons. Here are the numbers.
Rhodes:
2010: 55 IP, 33 IP in 8th inning, 2.29 ERA, 8.2 K/9
2009: 52.1 IP, 32.2 IP in 8th inning, 2.53 ERA, 8.1 K/9
Cordero:
2010: 72.2 IP, 64 IP in 9th inning, 3.84 ERA, 7.3 K/9
2009: 66.2 IP, 56.2 IP in 9th inning, 2.16 ERA, 7.8 K/9
The other 2 guys I want to look at play in Chicago, Matt Thornton and Bobby Jenks from the White Sox.
Thornton:
2010: 60.2 IP, 29.2 IP in 8th inning, 2.67 ERA, 12.0 K/9
2009: 72.1 IP, 31 IP in 8th inning, 2.74 ERA, 10.8 K/9
Jenks:
2010: 52.2 IP, 43.2 IP in 9th inning, 4.44 ERA, 10.4 K/9
2009: 53.1 IP, 43.2 IP in 9th inning, 3.71 ERA, 8.3 K/9
First of all, these numbers don't prove anything, they are just 2 examples that I am picking to help make a point.
In these two cases, we can see 2 things: the set-up man puts up much better numbers than the closer, and yet pitches less innings. What's this mean? It means that these two teams are using their better pitcher less just because of the 'closer' tag on the other guy. Now the main reason for this is because of the track records of Cordero and Jenks. They have both been closers for many years and have been successful in their time. However, over the last few years they have slowed down, and yet they are still being used more often than better pitchers in the same bullpen. It's understandable because of seniority and respect, however not the best thing for the baseball team as a whole.
Now you aren't going to see this too often in the major leagues, most teams give their best pitcher more innings than the rest of the guys in the bullpen, however there may still be something wrong with how they are using them.
As Posnanski wrote in his article, teams that lead going into the 8th inning have won around 91% of the time every year for decades. Teams that lead going into the 9th is around 95%. So regardless of who is pitching, those are the numbers.
That said, wouldn't it make more sense for teams to ditch the "closer" tag and just pitch their best pitcher when they need outs the most? What's the point of saving your best arm for the 9th inning in a close game when you never know if you're even going to get to that point? If you're up a run or two in the 7th inning and your pitcher lets a couple guys on, I say bring in your best pitcher there, get out of the inning with the lead, and take your 91% chance of winning to the bank. Even more so with the 8th inning, if you're in a tough situation and need outs badly, why leave your best chance of getting those outs out of the game? Bring in the guy with the best chance of getting the outs, get out of the inning with the lead, and then be happy with your 95% chance of winning the ball game.
One thing we saw a lot of this year in the major leagues was closers pitching more than one inning. Guys like Brian Wilson from the Giants and John Axford from the Brewers did it a lot, and were very successful when they did so. Now not all closers are suited for that, but my guess is most of them can handle it. It seems to me to be common sense that you want your best pitchers pitching more innings. If you need 5 outs to win a game and it's close with some runners on, bring your best pitcher in and let him get you the outs. It gives you the best chance to win, and I don't understand why teams don't do it more often.
Now all of that was pretty much just re-iterating what Joe said in his article. Now, let's take this into some Pirates talk.
Hanrahan and Meek will be "competing for the closer job" in spring training this year. Most people see Meek being better than Hanrahan in 2011, although it's close, as you can see by last year's numbers.
Meek:
2010: 80 IP, 3.45 ERA, 8.0 K/9
Hanrahan:
2010: 69.2 IP, 3.62 ERA, 12.9 K/9
Hanrahan missed some time last year, so that explains the innings difference, but when he was in there he was neck and neck with Meek. Hanrahan's strikeout rate was much better than Meek's, in fact it was better than all but 2 relievers in the major leagues, although Meek's ERA was a little lower. They will probably put up very similar ERA numbers in 2011, and the strikeout rates should get a little bit closer. Meek is the younger pitcher with more room to improve, and that will probably earn him the closer job next year. However, if it were up to me, I might not even declare a closer. I'd just take it on a case-by-case basis based on rest and matchups. Whoever has the best chance of getting a batter out in critical situations would be in the game. If that means Hanrahan pitches the final 2 innings, fine. If that means Meek pitches in the 7th inning, so be it. The numbers are there for us, let's start using them intelligently.
Anyways, the article got me thinking about how the Pirates should utilize Hanrahan and Meek in coming years. These two will surely be the 8th and 9th inning guys for the Pirates for years to come and they should be one of the best 1-2 punches in the league.
The norm is that a big league team will have their best reliever pitch the 9th inning in close game situations. When their team is losing by a couple runs or ahead by more than 3 runs going into the 9th, teams don't always use their closers. As Joe points out in his article, it doesn't really matter what teams do, for the last 50 years teams have won around the same percentage of the games they lead heading into the 9th inning. The closer role has been extremely over inflated and overvalued in the last decade, and there are no doubt better guys pitching in the 9th inning then there were decades ago. The fact that the number of games that teams win when they lead in the 9th hasn't changed throughout all these years of change speaks volumes to say that it doesn't really matter who you have in there, you'll still win at about the same rate.
This led Joe to question a lot of the reasoning of closers. These guys get paid a lot more than other relievers, and they are often held out of games if there is not a save opportunity present. I figured I'd take a look at a couple instances of teams that have a set 8th inning guy and a set 9th inning guy in the last 2 years, and see how the numbers look. Here's what I found:
I figured I'd stay in the NL Central to start with. When I think of set-up man, I think of Arthur Rhodes. Rhodes has been setting for Francisco Cordero the last 2+ seasons. Here are the numbers.
Rhodes:
2010: 55 IP, 33 IP in 8th inning, 2.29 ERA, 8.2 K/9
2009: 52.1 IP, 32.2 IP in 8th inning, 2.53 ERA, 8.1 K/9
Cordero:
2010: 72.2 IP, 64 IP in 9th inning, 3.84 ERA, 7.3 K/9
2009: 66.2 IP, 56.2 IP in 9th inning, 2.16 ERA, 7.8 K/9
The other 2 guys I want to look at play in Chicago, Matt Thornton and Bobby Jenks from the White Sox.
Thornton:
2010: 60.2 IP, 29.2 IP in 8th inning, 2.67 ERA, 12.0 K/9
2009: 72.1 IP, 31 IP in 8th inning, 2.74 ERA, 10.8 K/9
Jenks:
2010: 52.2 IP, 43.2 IP in 9th inning, 4.44 ERA, 10.4 K/9
2009: 53.1 IP, 43.2 IP in 9th inning, 3.71 ERA, 8.3 K/9
First of all, these numbers don't prove anything, they are just 2 examples that I am picking to help make a point.
In these two cases, we can see 2 things: the set-up man puts up much better numbers than the closer, and yet pitches less innings. What's this mean? It means that these two teams are using their better pitcher less just because of the 'closer' tag on the other guy. Now the main reason for this is because of the track records of Cordero and Jenks. They have both been closers for many years and have been successful in their time. However, over the last few years they have slowed down, and yet they are still being used more often than better pitchers in the same bullpen. It's understandable because of seniority and respect, however not the best thing for the baseball team as a whole.
Now you aren't going to see this too often in the major leagues, most teams give their best pitcher more innings than the rest of the guys in the bullpen, however there may still be something wrong with how they are using them.
As Posnanski wrote in his article, teams that lead going into the 8th inning have won around 91% of the time every year for decades. Teams that lead going into the 9th is around 95%. So regardless of who is pitching, those are the numbers.
That said, wouldn't it make more sense for teams to ditch the "closer" tag and just pitch their best pitcher when they need outs the most? What's the point of saving your best arm for the 9th inning in a close game when you never know if you're even going to get to that point? If you're up a run or two in the 7th inning and your pitcher lets a couple guys on, I say bring in your best pitcher there, get out of the inning with the lead, and take your 91% chance of winning to the bank. Even more so with the 8th inning, if you're in a tough situation and need outs badly, why leave your best chance of getting those outs out of the game? Bring in the guy with the best chance of getting the outs, get out of the inning with the lead, and then be happy with your 95% chance of winning the ball game.
One thing we saw a lot of this year in the major leagues was closers pitching more than one inning. Guys like Brian Wilson from the Giants and John Axford from the Brewers did it a lot, and were very successful when they did so. Now not all closers are suited for that, but my guess is most of them can handle it. It seems to me to be common sense that you want your best pitchers pitching more innings. If you need 5 outs to win a game and it's close with some runners on, bring your best pitcher in and let him get you the outs. It gives you the best chance to win, and I don't understand why teams don't do it more often.
Now all of that was pretty much just re-iterating what Joe said in his article. Now, let's take this into some Pirates talk.
Hanrahan and Meek will be "competing for the closer job" in spring training this year. Most people see Meek being better than Hanrahan in 2011, although it's close, as you can see by last year's numbers.
Meek:
2010: 80 IP, 3.45 ERA, 8.0 K/9
Hanrahan:
2010: 69.2 IP, 3.62 ERA, 12.9 K/9
Hanrahan missed some time last year, so that explains the innings difference, but when he was in there he was neck and neck with Meek. Hanrahan's strikeout rate was much better than Meek's, in fact it was better than all but 2 relievers in the major leagues, although Meek's ERA was a little lower. They will probably put up very similar ERA numbers in 2011, and the strikeout rates should get a little bit closer. Meek is the younger pitcher with more room to improve, and that will probably earn him the closer job next year. However, if it were up to me, I might not even declare a closer. I'd just take it on a case-by-case basis based on rest and matchups. Whoever has the best chance of getting a batter out in critical situations would be in the game. If that means Hanrahan pitches the final 2 innings, fine. If that means Meek pitches in the 7th inning, so be it. The numbers are there for us, let's start using them intelligently.
Saying Farewell To A Legend
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The Pirates parted ways with Dinesh Patel yesterday. There's a very good chance that some of you do not know who Dinesh Patel is, so I'll jog your memories.
Dinesh came over with Rinku Singh from India. These two won a contest called "Million Dollar Arm", where different contestants compete to see who has the best throwing arm. They aren't throwing baseballs however. In Dinesh's case, he was throwing a javelin. However, Dinesh and Rinku showed good ability and were able to throw a small ball similar to a baseball near 90 miles per hour. That was good enough for the Pirates to step in and sign them, trying to establish a presence in a country where no other team had ever been before. Rinku and Dinesh were the subject of a lot of jokes from baseball fans all over the country, but it was definitely an interesting acquisition. These two had never played baseball before, and yet they were getting professional contracts.
For the last 2 years the two had been playing ball in the Gulf Coast League learning the game and working on their skills. Rinku has had some success, but Dinesh lagged behind, posting an 8.59 ERA in 7.1 innings last year. Extremely small sample size, so numbers certainly didn't have any influence on this decision.
Nobody really expected either of these guys to ever turn into real professional baseball players, the move was more of a statement that the Pirates were willing to search the globe and go to places where no one had ever looked before to find talent. These guys have live arms and definitely have some ability in there that could be molded into a serious professional pitcher some day, but the chances are extremely small. Clearly, Dinesh just couldn't hack it.
We'll keep our eyes on Rinku however, he actually has made some major progress. Last year he earned a promotion to State College and posted a 2.38 ERA in the 2010 season with them and with the GCL Pirates. His strikeouts were impressive as well, striking out 8.3 batters per nine innings. Granted, he pitched only 22.2 innings, but it's good to see success no matter how significant it really is. Definitely a guy to keep an eye on. If he would ever make the big leagues, he would get his name in the record books.
So Rinku will have to continue his journey in professional baseball without his pal Dinesh. We wish him the best and hope that he can get his name out there sometime, somehow. He deserves applause for leaving his home country to take a huge risk and jump into something he never knew before. Definitely a positive experience for both of these guys no matter what happens.
Dinesh came over with Rinku Singh from India. These two won a contest called "Million Dollar Arm", where different contestants compete to see who has the best throwing arm. They aren't throwing baseballs however. In Dinesh's case, he was throwing a javelin. However, Dinesh and Rinku showed good ability and were able to throw a small ball similar to a baseball near 90 miles per hour. That was good enough for the Pirates to step in and sign them, trying to establish a presence in a country where no other team had ever been before. Rinku and Dinesh were the subject of a lot of jokes from baseball fans all over the country, but it was definitely an interesting acquisition. These two had never played baseball before, and yet they were getting professional contracts.
For the last 2 years the two had been playing ball in the Gulf Coast League learning the game and working on their skills. Rinku has had some success, but Dinesh lagged behind, posting an 8.59 ERA in 7.1 innings last year. Extremely small sample size, so numbers certainly didn't have any influence on this decision.
Nobody really expected either of these guys to ever turn into real professional baseball players, the move was more of a statement that the Pirates were willing to search the globe and go to places where no one had ever looked before to find talent. These guys have live arms and definitely have some ability in there that could be molded into a serious professional pitcher some day, but the chances are extremely small. Clearly, Dinesh just couldn't hack it.
We'll keep our eyes on Rinku however, he actually has made some major progress. Last year he earned a promotion to State College and posted a 2.38 ERA in the 2010 season with them and with the GCL Pirates. His strikeouts were impressive as well, striking out 8.3 batters per nine innings. Granted, he pitched only 22.2 innings, but it's good to see success no matter how significant it really is. Definitely a guy to keep an eye on. If he would ever make the big leagues, he would get his name in the record books.
So Rinku will have to continue his journey in professional baseball without his pal Dinesh. We wish him the best and hope that he can get his name out there sometime, somehow. He deserves applause for leaving his home country to take a huge risk and jump into something he never knew before. Definitely a positive experience for both of these guys no matter what happens.
Diego Moreno
Comments  | Name: Diego Moreno Position: Right Handed Pitcher Birth Date: July 21, 1986 Height: 6'1'' Weight: 177 Bats: Right Throws: Right College/HS: Venezuela Acquired: Int'l free agent Major League ETA: 2012 |
| McEffect Report: You don't normally see bullpen arms in the top 10 for prospects, which shows that the Pirates list narrows as we get near the double-digits. That said, Moreno has a great arm on him. He sits at 94-96 on the gun and consistently can reach 98. Young pitchers with that kind of gas normally walk a lot of hitters, but that's not the case with Moreno. He walked only 8 batters in 2010 (he faced 174). His #2 pitch is a change up that is very deceptive and keeps hitters way off balance. He does not have a good breaking ball however, which could prohibit his future closer potential. The Pirates coaches will work to improve his breaking stuff in 2010 and we could see him in the back end of the bullpen by mid-2012. |
Duke of Arizona
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The Pirates officially cut ties with Zach Duke today, as they have traded him to the Arizona Diamondbacks for a player to be named later (whom is not one of the Diamondback's better prospects, as we were told by this tweet).
Zach Duke was one of the Pirates better pitchers in the last half decade, which is a pretty sad thing to say. His ERA with the Pirates was 4.54 with a WHIP of 1.484 and a record of 45-70. Duke had two seasons you could call "good". The first one was his first stint in the majors in 2005. He was a late season call-up and only started 14 games, but was phenomenal in those games. He had an 8-2 record with a 1.81 ERA and a 1.205 WHIP.
However, hitters figured him out fast after that and Duke posted a 4.47 ERA with a WHIP of 1.500. He quickly became one of the league's most hittable pitchers after his first season in the league. 2007 was Duke's worst season prior to 2010 posting a 5.53 ERA, a 1.733 WHIP, and surrendering a ridiculous 13.5 hits per nine. 2008 wasn't too much better although he did keep his ERA under 5 (4.82).
He was a big surprise in 2009 and had a really good first half of the season, earning a pity spot on the National League All-Star team (he didn't play in the game of course). Duke's season numbers finished at 11-16 with a 4.06 ERA, a 1.315 WHIP and he got his hits per 9 back in single digits at 9.8.
His strikeout per walk rate was his best since his rookie year at 2.16 in 09, but dropped to 1.88 in 2010, which brought his career strikeout per walk rate to 1.92 in his 5 seasons.
Duke's 2010 season gave the Pirates no choice but to get rid of him. He surrendered 12 hits per 9 innings with a 1.654 WHIP and a career worse 5.72 ERA. He was statistically one of the worst starting pitchers in the major leagues.
All that said, Zach Duke was, pretty by default, a fan favorite in his time with the Pirates, although most of the more educated fans hated him just because of his numbers and his low ceiling. He has never posted good strikeout numbers and really never gave Pittsburgh much to be excited about after that 2005 season.
Duke had some good moments in Pittsburgh, none better than his complete-game shutout of the Houston Astros in the home opener of the 2009 season. I'm happy that Zach was picked up by another team this quickly, he's a quality guy and deserves another chance, although his days as a starter might be behind him.
He's a lefty, so he can automatically be effective coming out of the bullpen and he's a good guy to have on your team for those games where you need a lot of innings from your bullpen.
The worst part of this is that my Doumit-Duke-Duffy 3-in-1 bobblehead now has only 1 active Pirate player on it. Sigh...
Zach Duke was one of the Pirates better pitchers in the last half decade, which is a pretty sad thing to say. His ERA with the Pirates was 4.54 with a WHIP of 1.484 and a record of 45-70. Duke had two seasons you could call "good". The first one was his first stint in the majors in 2005. He was a late season call-up and only started 14 games, but was phenomenal in those games. He had an 8-2 record with a 1.81 ERA and a 1.205 WHIP.
However, hitters figured him out fast after that and Duke posted a 4.47 ERA with a WHIP of 1.500. He quickly became one of the league's most hittable pitchers after his first season in the league. 2007 was Duke's worst season prior to 2010 posting a 5.53 ERA, a 1.733 WHIP, and surrendering a ridiculous 13.5 hits per nine. 2008 wasn't too much better although he did keep his ERA under 5 (4.82).
He was a big surprise in 2009 and had a really good first half of the season, earning a pity spot on the National League All-Star team (he didn't play in the game of course). Duke's season numbers finished at 11-16 with a 4.06 ERA, a 1.315 WHIP and he got his hits per 9 back in single digits at 9.8.
His strikeout per walk rate was his best since his rookie year at 2.16 in 09, but dropped to 1.88 in 2010, which brought his career strikeout per walk rate to 1.92 in his 5 seasons.
Duke's 2010 season gave the Pirates no choice but to get rid of him. He surrendered 12 hits per 9 innings with a 1.654 WHIP and a career worse 5.72 ERA. He was statistically one of the worst starting pitchers in the major leagues.
All that said, Zach Duke was, pretty by default, a fan favorite in his time with the Pirates, although most of the more educated fans hated him just because of his numbers and his low ceiling. He has never posted good strikeout numbers and really never gave Pittsburgh much to be excited about after that 2005 season.
Duke had some good moments in Pittsburgh, none better than his complete-game shutout of the Houston Astros in the home opener of the 2009 season. I'm happy that Zach was picked up by another team this quickly, he's a quality guy and deserves another chance, although his days as a starter might be behind him.
He's a lefty, so he can automatically be effective coming out of the bullpen and he's a good guy to have on your team for those games where you need a lot of innings from your bullpen.
The worst part of this is that my Doumit-Duke-Duffy 3-in-1 bobblehead now has only 1 active Pirate player on it. Sigh...
Can Neil Walker Repeat?
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2010 was not a good season for the Pittsburgh Pirates, in fact it was one of the worst seasons in recent memory. However, it did not go without some positives. If you're asking me, the biggest positive for the Pirates in 2010 was the play of Neil Walker, who moved to second base at the beginning of the year and hit well enough in AAA to earn a call up in late May. In just over 4 months of play, Walker performed well enough to finish 5th in the Rookie of the Year voting.
The season started with Akinori Iwamura at second base, which excited some people at the beginning of the year, but Iwamura could not have played much worse and was demoted for Walker after less than 2 months. The Pirates signed Iwamura because they really did not have any other options at second base that were anywhere close to the big leagues. However, Walker's athleticism let him transition to second base quickly and his bat heated up and gave the Pirates a great option at the position that they never thought they had before.
In 43 games in AAA, Walker hit .321/.392/.560 with 6 HR and 26 RBI. He was hitting the ball hard and to the right places, as 26 of his 54 hits went for extra bases.
In 110 games with the Pirates, Walker hit .296/.349/.462 with 12 HR and 66 RBI. Walker continued in his success hitting for extra bases, as 44 of his 126 hits went for extra bases (35%).
Walker was a former first round pick, so it's not like nobody ever thought he could put up these kinds of numbers in the major leagues before. However, he struggled mightily in his first 4 seasons in the system, and many Pirate fans had written him off well before his call-up this year. Even when he got the call up, most people weren't expecting much out of him. He had shown the ability to hit in AAA, but was never consistent with it.
The consistency fact brings us to the question of if Walker can repeat his big league success again 2011. Being that he is a Pirate, it would not be any surprise to anyone to see him completely fall off next year and be back in the minors by the end of the year. However, if you are reading this blog, you are probably a more educated and rational baseball fan, so let's be smart and look at some numbers that can help us determine his future.
Walker's 2010 major league BABIP was .340, which is higher than the average, but Walker was an above average hitter in his time with Pittsburgh. Also, .340 isn't too extreme and that fact is encouraging.
Walker had a 7.2 walk percentage in 2010, which is extremely low (the top hitters in the league sit around 11%-15%), and a 19.5 strikeout percentage, which is too high (the top hitters in the league are easily under 15%). Those are discouraging, but should improve as he matures as a big league hitter (especially the walk percentage).
Probably the most encouraging sign of Walker's 2010 campaign was his 22.4 line drive percentage. That number was highest on the team and in the top 10 in the big leagues, up there with guys like Joe Mauer, James Loney, Josh Hamilton, Austin Jackson, and Derrek Lee. That shows that when Walker hit the ball, he was squaring it up and hitting it with authority. He wasn't getting many bloop hits or well placed weakly hit ground ball hits, he was seeing the ball well and hitting it on the screws.
Walker's defense leaves a lot to be desired, but should continue to improve because of his athleticism and isn't a major concern anyway since he plays at second base. Even if Walker regresses a little bit in 2011 (which he most likely will), he is still an above average bat at second base, which is a big boost for the Pirates since they majorly lack offensive production at shortstop, catcher, and right field.
The numbers suggest that Walker's 2010 season was not a fluke, and that he should be a solid starting second baseman for years to come.
The season started with Akinori Iwamura at second base, which excited some people at the beginning of the year, but Iwamura could not have played much worse and was demoted for Walker after less than 2 months. The Pirates signed Iwamura because they really did not have any other options at second base that were anywhere close to the big leagues. However, Walker's athleticism let him transition to second base quickly and his bat heated up and gave the Pirates a great option at the position that they never thought they had before.
In 43 games in AAA, Walker hit .321/.392/.560 with 6 HR and 26 RBI. He was hitting the ball hard and to the right places, as 26 of his 54 hits went for extra bases.
In 110 games with the Pirates, Walker hit .296/.349/.462 with 12 HR and 66 RBI. Walker continued in his success hitting for extra bases, as 44 of his 126 hits went for extra bases (35%).
Walker was a former first round pick, so it's not like nobody ever thought he could put up these kinds of numbers in the major leagues before. However, he struggled mightily in his first 4 seasons in the system, and many Pirate fans had written him off well before his call-up this year. Even when he got the call up, most people weren't expecting much out of him. He had shown the ability to hit in AAA, but was never consistent with it.
The consistency fact brings us to the question of if Walker can repeat his big league success again 2011. Being that he is a Pirate, it would not be any surprise to anyone to see him completely fall off next year and be back in the minors by the end of the year. However, if you are reading this blog, you are probably a more educated and rational baseball fan, so let's be smart and look at some numbers that can help us determine his future.
Walker's 2010 major league BABIP was .340, which is higher than the average, but Walker was an above average hitter in his time with Pittsburgh. Also, .340 isn't too extreme and that fact is encouraging.
Walker had a 7.2 walk percentage in 2010, which is extremely low (the top hitters in the league sit around 11%-15%), and a 19.5 strikeout percentage, which is too high (the top hitters in the league are easily under 15%). Those are discouraging, but should improve as he matures as a big league hitter (especially the walk percentage).
Probably the most encouraging sign of Walker's 2010 campaign was his 22.4 line drive percentage. That number was highest on the team and in the top 10 in the big leagues, up there with guys like Joe Mauer, James Loney, Josh Hamilton, Austin Jackson, and Derrek Lee. That shows that when Walker hit the ball, he was squaring it up and hitting it with authority. He wasn't getting many bloop hits or well placed weakly hit ground ball hits, he was seeing the ball well and hitting it on the screws.
Walker's defense leaves a lot to be desired, but should continue to improve because of his athleticism and isn't a major concern anyway since he plays at second base. Even if Walker regresses a little bit in 2011 (which he most likely will), he is still an above average bat at second base, which is a big boost for the Pirates since they majorly lack offensive production at shortstop, catcher, and right field.
The numbers suggest that Walker's 2010 season was not a fluke, and that he should be a solid starting second baseman for years to come.
Pirates Top Prospects
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I am writing this on November 21st, so the 2011 top prospects have not been released yet, so this initial list is based on a Baseball Prospectus post. Here's what the top 20 (er... 19) looks like, for now, click a player's name to see their personal player profile page:
- Jameson Taillon, RHP, Born 11/18/91
- Stetson Allie, RHP, Born 3/13/91
- Luis Heredia, RHP, Born 8/16/94
- Tony Sanchez, C, Born 5/20/88
- Rudy Owens, LHP, Born 12/18/87
- Bryan Morris, RHP, Born 3/28/87
- Starling Marte, OF, Born 10/9/88
- Jeff Locke, LHP, Born 11/20/87
- Diego Moreno, RHP, Born 7/21/86
- Colton Cain, LHP, Born 2/5/91
- Mel Rojas Jr., OF, Born 5/24/90
- Zack Dodson, LHP, Born 7/23/90
- Alex Presley, OF, Born 7/25/85
- Gorkys Hernandez, OF, Born 9/7/87
- Chase D'Arnaud, SS, Born 1/21/87
- Andrew Lambo, OF, Born 8/11/88
- Nick Kingham, RHP, Born 11/8/91
- Josh Harrison, INF, Born 7/8/87
- Quincy Latimore, OF, Born 2/3/89
2011 Starting Rotation Speculation
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Zach Duke was the Pirates opening day starter in 2010. Yesterday, Duke was DFA'd after going 8-15 with a 5.72 ERA and a .321 batting average against. Those are probably some of the worst numbers that any opening day starter has put up in a long time. Judging by the statistics, it makes all the sense in the world to get rid of somebody like that. However, the Pirates aren't exactly deep with major league ready pitching, so there is a lot to be talked about with this move and the immediate future of the starting rotation. Let's start at the top.
James McDonald. My second favorite "Mc" on the team was really good with the Pirates in 2011 after he was brought over here in July with Andrew Lambo for Octavio Dotel. McDonald was 4-5 with a 3.52 ERA and an 8.6 K/9 ratio. Those numbers were all better than his career averages before that, so you can't read too much into them. However, the strikeouts are definitely something to get you excited. McDonald's season batting average against was .260, which is very impressive. Another interesting point is that McDonald's 2010 BABIP was .330, which is pretty high for a guy that was putting up the solid numbers he was. He does have some control problems at times and can walk a lot of batters, but the strikeouts alone make him a legitimate big league pitcher. He seemed to be rejuvenated when he came to Pittsburgh and he should continue to improve as he will be looked at as one of the top pitchers in the Pirates organization next year. I don't care where you come from, when you leave a job as a middle relief bullpen option (as he was in Los Angeles) to a top of the rotation starter, it definitely gives you extra motivation to succeed.
Ross Ohlendorf. The boss had some injury problems in 2010 and only started 17 games because of them. In those 17 starts, Ohlendorf was a pitiful 1-11. However, his ERA was 4.07, which definitely is not deserving of a 1-11 record. His FIP was 4.44, which shows that he was at least a little bit lucky with his ERA, but not too much that we should be worried. His strikeouts were low, at 6.4 per 9, but his walks were respectable at just under 3 per 9. He had a .317 BABIP, which is near average for a guy that pitches to contact like Ross did in 2010. We were expecting big things in 2010 from Ross because of his performance in the second half of the 2009 season (2.73 ERA, .204 BAA in the seasons final 2 months), and Ross didn't deliver. There's reason to believe that Ohlendorf can get it together and be a decent 3-4 option for the Pirates.
Paul Maholm. The best Pirates pitcher statistically, outside of the short sample we saw of James McDonald, was Paul Maholm. He went 9-15 with a 5.10 ERA. Pretty sad when you say a pitcher with a 5.10 ERA was your best pitcher. However, Maholm was not as bad as you'd think from those numbers, his FIP was 4.18 and his BABIP was .336. However, Maholm really was not a good pitcher. He had only 5.6 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9. He also had 6 starts where he gave up 5 or more earned runs. He was especially bad down the stretch with a 6.30 ERA in the final 2 months. Maholm wouldn't be in the rotation for many big leagues teams in 2011 with those numbers, but the Pirates are forced to rely on him. Right now, Maholm looks like the 3rd best starter on this Pirates team for opening day of 2011. However, that should change with some free agent signings and some mid season call-ups. If the sabermetrics are correct, Maholm wasn't as bad as he seemed last year, although he is another pitch to contact pitcher with a bad infield behind him, so things aren't looking good.
Those are the only 3 set in stone Pirate starters next year as of right now. The Pirates are going to be aggressive in signing a starter this offseason, and hopefully they'll find a way to get someone that can be a top 3 guy for the Pirates next year without having to give up too much money. We've all heard the rumors around Jorge De La Rosa, Justin Duscherer, and Jeff Francis, and any of those 3 guys would be a better option than, at least, Maholm, if not Ohlendorf, however there are other teams trying to acquire those guys as well and Pittsburgh isn't the most attractive destination right now, so we could easily lose out on them. Assuming the Pirates get somebody in free agency, the 5th spot will be open for competition in spring training. Some of the guys that will be competing for that spot are...
Brad Lincoln. Lincoln made him much anticipated MLB debut last season, but wasn't good at all as he went 1-4 with a 6.66 ERA in 9 starts. He had one really impressive start against Chicago where he went 7 scoreless innings and picked up his only big league win. However, the rest of the starts were bad and he finished his big league season surrendering 11.3 hits per 9, 2.6 walks per 9, and getting only 4.3 strikeouts per 9. There's no reason to give up on Lincoln yet, he still has the ability to be a major league starter. His ridiculously low strikeout ratio in the major leagues was not expected at all. It's unrealistic to think that this guy can strike out 8-9 batters per 9 innings, but 6-7 is certainly feasible in my opinion. Also, his fastball velocity really didn't show up in a Pirates uniform, so that should improve by a mph or two next year. Lincoln isn't ever going to be the top of the rotation option that we thought he could be when we took him in the first round, but there's no reason to write him off as a career minor league pitcher yet. He could turn into a 3-4 starter as soon as next season.
Charlie Morton. This is a guy that was expected to be one of the Pirates' best pitchers in 2010. He turned out to be one of the worst in the history of the organization. I'm not even going to post the numbers, just because of how ugly they were. However, he did get a call up late in the season and put up some decent starts. He improved his K/BB ratio and was able to get through some decent innings. Morton really can't be any worse than last year, and if he can figure out whatever made him so bad, he could be a factor in this years rotation. If he reaches that potential, he could be a #2 guy, but don't expect anything like that this year. He and Lincoln will be the two main competitors for the final rotation spot, with Morton having a slight advantage because of experience and age.
Jeff Karstens. Despite being the ugliest man in the league, Karstens was pretty reliable for the Pirates in 2010. He had a 4.92 ERA on the year, but he came up big for the Pirates a handful of times. Karstens had 11 starts where he gave up 2 or fewer earned runs. That's a lot. He is not a strikeout pitcher however, with a career 4.46 K/9 ratio. Karstens is not the guy you want to have to count on in your major league rotation, just because he really does not have starter-like stuff. It would be pretty disappointing to see Karstens in the opening day rotation, but at least he's shown the ability to be successful in the big leagues. I would definitely not mind him being a middle reliever for the Pirates next season.
Those three guys are the leading candidates for an opening day starting spot next year, but there are a couple other guys that will start the season in AAA that will be looking to take their jobs away from them a couple months into the season. Those guys are Rudy Owens, Bryan Morris, and Justin Wilson. Tune back next time to read about these guys.
James McDonald. My second favorite "Mc" on the team was really good with the Pirates in 2011 after he was brought over here in July with Andrew Lambo for Octavio Dotel. McDonald was 4-5 with a 3.52 ERA and an 8.6 K/9 ratio. Those numbers were all better than his career averages before that, so you can't read too much into them. However, the strikeouts are definitely something to get you excited. McDonald's season batting average against was .260, which is very impressive. Another interesting point is that McDonald's 2010 BABIP was .330, which is pretty high for a guy that was putting up the solid numbers he was. He does have some control problems at times and can walk a lot of batters, but the strikeouts alone make him a legitimate big league pitcher. He seemed to be rejuvenated when he came to Pittsburgh and he should continue to improve as he will be looked at as one of the top pitchers in the Pirates organization next year. I don't care where you come from, when you leave a job as a middle relief bullpen option (as he was in Los Angeles) to a top of the rotation starter, it definitely gives you extra motivation to succeed.
Ross Ohlendorf. The boss had some injury problems in 2010 and only started 17 games because of them. In those 17 starts, Ohlendorf was a pitiful 1-11. However, his ERA was 4.07, which definitely is not deserving of a 1-11 record. His FIP was 4.44, which shows that he was at least a little bit lucky with his ERA, but not too much that we should be worried. His strikeouts were low, at 6.4 per 9, but his walks were respectable at just under 3 per 9. He had a .317 BABIP, which is near average for a guy that pitches to contact like Ross did in 2010. We were expecting big things in 2010 from Ross because of his performance in the second half of the 2009 season (2.73 ERA, .204 BAA in the seasons final 2 months), and Ross didn't deliver. There's reason to believe that Ohlendorf can get it together and be a decent 3-4 option for the Pirates.
Paul Maholm. The best Pirates pitcher statistically, outside of the short sample we saw of James McDonald, was Paul Maholm. He went 9-15 with a 5.10 ERA. Pretty sad when you say a pitcher with a 5.10 ERA was your best pitcher. However, Maholm was not as bad as you'd think from those numbers, his FIP was 4.18 and his BABIP was .336. However, Maholm really was not a good pitcher. He had only 5.6 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9. He also had 6 starts where he gave up 5 or more earned runs. He was especially bad down the stretch with a 6.30 ERA in the final 2 months. Maholm wouldn't be in the rotation for many big leagues teams in 2011 with those numbers, but the Pirates are forced to rely on him. Right now, Maholm looks like the 3rd best starter on this Pirates team for opening day of 2011. However, that should change with some free agent signings and some mid season call-ups. If the sabermetrics are correct, Maholm wasn't as bad as he seemed last year, although he is another pitch to contact pitcher with a bad infield behind him, so things aren't looking good.
Those are the only 3 set in stone Pirate starters next year as of right now. The Pirates are going to be aggressive in signing a starter this offseason, and hopefully they'll find a way to get someone that can be a top 3 guy for the Pirates next year without having to give up too much money. We've all heard the rumors around Jorge De La Rosa, Justin Duscherer, and Jeff Francis, and any of those 3 guys would be a better option than, at least, Maholm, if not Ohlendorf, however there are other teams trying to acquire those guys as well and Pittsburgh isn't the most attractive destination right now, so we could easily lose out on them. Assuming the Pirates get somebody in free agency, the 5th spot will be open for competition in spring training. Some of the guys that will be competing for that spot are...
Brad Lincoln. Lincoln made him much anticipated MLB debut last season, but wasn't good at all as he went 1-4 with a 6.66 ERA in 9 starts. He had one really impressive start against Chicago where he went 7 scoreless innings and picked up his only big league win. However, the rest of the starts were bad and he finished his big league season surrendering 11.3 hits per 9, 2.6 walks per 9, and getting only 4.3 strikeouts per 9. There's no reason to give up on Lincoln yet, he still has the ability to be a major league starter. His ridiculously low strikeout ratio in the major leagues was not expected at all. It's unrealistic to think that this guy can strike out 8-9 batters per 9 innings, but 6-7 is certainly feasible in my opinion. Also, his fastball velocity really didn't show up in a Pirates uniform, so that should improve by a mph or two next year. Lincoln isn't ever going to be the top of the rotation option that we thought he could be when we took him in the first round, but there's no reason to write him off as a career minor league pitcher yet. He could turn into a 3-4 starter as soon as next season.
Charlie Morton. This is a guy that was expected to be one of the Pirates' best pitchers in 2010. He turned out to be one of the worst in the history of the organization. I'm not even going to post the numbers, just because of how ugly they were. However, he did get a call up late in the season and put up some decent starts. He improved his K/BB ratio and was able to get through some decent innings. Morton really can't be any worse than last year, and if he can figure out whatever made him so bad, he could be a factor in this years rotation. If he reaches that potential, he could be a #2 guy, but don't expect anything like that this year. He and Lincoln will be the two main competitors for the final rotation spot, with Morton having a slight advantage because of experience and age.
Jeff Karstens. Despite being the ugliest man in the league, Karstens was pretty reliable for the Pirates in 2010. He had a 4.92 ERA on the year, but he came up big for the Pirates a handful of times. Karstens had 11 starts where he gave up 2 or fewer earned runs. That's a lot. He is not a strikeout pitcher however, with a career 4.46 K/9 ratio. Karstens is not the guy you want to have to count on in your major league rotation, just because he really does not have starter-like stuff. It would be pretty disappointing to see Karstens in the opening day rotation, but at least he's shown the ability to be successful in the big leagues. I would definitely not mind him being a middle reliever for the Pirates next season.
Those three guys are the leading candidates for an opening day starting spot next year, but there are a couple other guys that will start the season in AAA that will be looking to take their jobs away from them a couple months into the season. Those guys are Rudy Owens, Bryan Morris, and Justin Wilson. Tune back next time to read about these guys.
Addition By Subtraction
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Zach Duke, Delwyn Young, and Andy LaRoche DFA'd today. Happy about Duke, and not sure what to think about Young and LaRoche til we see who replaces them.
More actual Pirates/Steelers posting tomorrow.
What We Need, The Hanrahan Question
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Yesterday some rumors broke about the possibility of the Pirates trading Joel Hanrahan, which was not something that many people were expecting to hear. Hanrahan was not only the Pirates best reliever last year, but one of the best in the entire league. His strikeout ratio was 3rd best in the league for all qualified relievers. So why would the Pirates trade him? Here's a couple reasons...
The Pirates are in the middle of a re-building process, and are desperately trying to claw their way back into relevancy in the major leagues. You don't do that with a strong bullpen. It's important, but not as important as having good starting pitching and depth in the majors and minors. The Pirates definitely lack those two things right now, and should focus their efforts on working those out. The most urgent need the Pirates have is starting pitching. There are numerous high-potential arms in the minor leagues, but not enough to feel comfortable with.
If the Pirates are going to make trades this offseason, I want to see their focus be on young starting pitching. Even if they bring in some guys that are a a year or two away from the big leagues, I'll be happy. The Pirates have options for future major league starters at every level of their system, but when you are talking about guys with potential, the more you have the better. You never know if a prospect is going to develop into what he can be, so the more you have the better chance you have of finding real big league talent.
I'm not really concerned with signing pitchers that can help immediately in 2011, since the team probably won't compete regardless. They should take big steps forward from 2010, especially with a full year of the offense consisting of Walker, Alvarez, and Tabata, but the pitching really can't be good enough to compete this year. Therefore, I'm looking for the Pirates to continue to pursue young high-upside pitching that can potentially reach the big leagues in late 2011 or 2012 at any point.
- The return. The Pirates would certainly demand a pretty hefty return for Hanrahan and would have a legitimate chance of getting it. Last year, the Pirates got James McDonald and Andrew Lambo for Octavio Dotel, an amazing return for a rental like Dotel. In a similar situation, the Nationals brought in catching prospect Wilson Ramos for Matt Capps. For some reason, teams have been giving up big name prospects for late-inning relief help. If the Pirates could get a return like one of those two, I would certainly not be opposed to making the deal.
- He's easy to replace (sort of). Don't get me wrong here, the Pirates aren't going to find a pitcher of Hanrahan's calibur on free agency or through easy trade, but we have a couple options in the AA and AAA that could definitely make an impact in the big league level soon. Daniel Moskos pitched well in 2010 and could definitely give us quality innings in the big leagues this year. Another high-upside arm in the system is Diego Moreno, who played A ball last year but could progress quickly and be up by mid-season in 2011 (if all goes right and we really need him). The Pirates have Chris Resop and Evan Meek who are more than capable of being effective in the 8th and 9th innings, so it's not like the Pirates need another elite arm badly if they lose Hanrahan. The bullpen openings are easy to fill through free agency and the Pirates have sufficient options in the minor leagues to make a trade justifiable.
The Pirates are in the middle of a re-building process, and are desperately trying to claw their way back into relevancy in the major leagues. You don't do that with a strong bullpen. It's important, but not as important as having good starting pitching and depth in the majors and minors. The Pirates definitely lack those two things right now, and should focus their efforts on working those out. The most urgent need the Pirates have is starting pitching. There are numerous high-potential arms in the minor leagues, but not enough to feel comfortable with.
If the Pirates are going to make trades this offseason, I want to see their focus be on young starting pitching. Even if they bring in some guys that are a a year or two away from the big leagues, I'll be happy. The Pirates have options for future major league starters at every level of their system, but when you are talking about guys with potential, the more you have the better. You never know if a prospect is going to develop into what he can be, so the more you have the better chance you have of finding real big league talent.
I'm not really concerned with signing pitchers that can help immediately in 2011, since the team probably won't compete regardless. They should take big steps forward from 2010, especially with a full year of the offense consisting of Walker, Alvarez, and Tabata, but the pitching really can't be good enough to compete this year. Therefore, I'm looking for the Pirates to continue to pursue young high-upside pitching that can potentially reach the big leagues in late 2011 or 2012 at any point.
De La Pitching
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The Pirates need pitching. Badly. There have been all kinds of rumors floating around this offseason about the Pirates going after a pitcher and signing him to a multi-year deal. The top pitcher on the market, outside of Cliff Lee, is probably Jorge De La Rosa. The Pirates have made him their number one target, but they are not the only team interested. The Brewers, Rangers, Nationals, Yankees, and Rockies have all shown interest in signing him (or re-signing him in Colorado's case). The Pirates have some money to spend and I think De La Rosa is a good guy to spend it in.
Jorge De La Rosa is 29 years old and first made a big league appearance in 2004, with the Milwaukee Brewers. He has a career record of 49-47 with a 5.02 ERA. His best season was in 2009 when he went 16-9 with a 4.38 ERA. He has actually pitched better at home than on the road, which used to be unheard of for a pitcher that called Coors Field his home. However, it appears that that has changed for some unknown reason so we can't really take much from Coors Field numbers anymore.
De La Rosa is a strikeout pitcher, which the Pirates could desperately use. His career K/9 is at a solid 8, and his best ratio was in that 2009 season when he struck out 9.4 batters per nine innings. He has a career BB/9 of 4.5, which isn't particularly good and has certainly has not helped his case.
In a year where there were a lot of really good arms on the free agent market, De La Rosa probably would not be near the top. However, this year is kind of slim on pitching so he is near the top of the list and will be paid more because of it. The Pirates are going to have to pay more for him than they would normally like to for a guy of his calibur, but the need is so great that I think the Pirates have no choice but to go after him with seriousness.
However signing De La Rosa certainly wouldn't bring all positives to the table. The Pirates would lose their 2nd round draft pick since he is a type-A free agent. Also, since the market is slim on pitching, they are going to have tie up a good amount of money in him, which would really hurt us down the line if he doesn't perform well for a few years. He could come to Pittsburgh and have a Cy Young season (which he isn't even capable of) in 2011 and the Pirates still won't sniff the playoffs. The only way it would be a good thing to give him a lot of money is if he pitches well for 3-4 years and stays healthy. The Pirates aren't going to contend in 2011 so they need to have 2012 and 2013 and years beyond in mind when signing guys this offseason. Even though the Pirates have money to spend this offseason, they have to be wise about how they spend it.
Another option for the Pirates is former top prospect Jeff Francis. Francis was the Rockies first round pick in the 2002 draft and has played in 6 different seasons in the majors. He debuted in 2004 and missed the entire 2009 season because of injury. His career ERA is 4.77 with a 6.1 K/9 ratio and a 2.9 BB/9. He clearly has not lived up to anywhere near the hype he was given, and his ceiling is shrinking as he has reached the age of 29. He will be 30 by the seasons start and his numbers are not as impressive as De La Rosa's, so I would be upset if the Pirates go after Francis instead of De La Rosa.
Pittsburgh is not an attractive destination for established big leaguers, but the addition of Clint Hurdle could definitely help our cause when going after former Rockies like De La Rosa and Francis (although you can never be sure if they even liked Hurdle as manager or not). Everybody knows that Pittsburgh is an up and coming team with a definite chance to do some damage in the next couple seasons, but tha alone won't be enough to persuade anybody to come here, so they are going to simply have to be the highest bidder. Here's hoping something goes right this winter.
Jorge De La Rosa is 29 years old and first made a big league appearance in 2004, with the Milwaukee Brewers. He has a career record of 49-47 with a 5.02 ERA. His best season was in 2009 when he went 16-9 with a 4.38 ERA. He has actually pitched better at home than on the road, which used to be unheard of for a pitcher that called Coors Field his home. However, it appears that that has changed for some unknown reason so we can't really take much from Coors Field numbers anymore.
De La Rosa is a strikeout pitcher, which the Pirates could desperately use. His career K/9 is at a solid 8, and his best ratio was in that 2009 season when he struck out 9.4 batters per nine innings. He has a career BB/9 of 4.5, which isn't particularly good and has certainly has not helped his case.
In a year where there were a lot of really good arms on the free agent market, De La Rosa probably would not be near the top. However, this year is kind of slim on pitching so he is near the top of the list and will be paid more because of it. The Pirates are going to have to pay more for him than they would normally like to for a guy of his calibur, but the need is so great that I think the Pirates have no choice but to go after him with seriousness.
However signing De La Rosa certainly wouldn't bring all positives to the table. The Pirates would lose their 2nd round draft pick since he is a type-A free agent. Also, since the market is slim on pitching, they are going to have tie up a good amount of money in him, which would really hurt us down the line if he doesn't perform well for a few years. He could come to Pittsburgh and have a Cy Young season (which he isn't even capable of) in 2011 and the Pirates still won't sniff the playoffs. The only way it would be a good thing to give him a lot of money is if he pitches well for 3-4 years and stays healthy. The Pirates aren't going to contend in 2011 so they need to have 2012 and 2013 and years beyond in mind when signing guys this offseason. Even though the Pirates have money to spend this offseason, they have to be wise about how they spend it.
Another option for the Pirates is former top prospect Jeff Francis. Francis was the Rockies first round pick in the 2002 draft and has played in 6 different seasons in the majors. He debuted in 2004 and missed the entire 2009 season because of injury. His career ERA is 4.77 with a 6.1 K/9 ratio and a 2.9 BB/9. He clearly has not lived up to anywhere near the hype he was given, and his ceiling is shrinking as he has reached the age of 29. He will be 30 by the seasons start and his numbers are not as impressive as De La Rosa's, so I would be upset if the Pirates go after Francis instead of De La Rosa.
Pittsburgh is not an attractive destination for established big leaguers, but the addition of Clint Hurdle could definitely help our cause when going after former Rockies like De La Rosa and Francis (although you can never be sure if they even liked Hurdle as manager or not). Everybody knows that Pittsburgh is an up and coming team with a definite chance to do some damage in the next couple seasons, but tha alone won't be enough to persuade anybody to come here, so they are going to simply have to be the highest bidder. Here's hoping something goes right this winter.
Jumping Hurdles
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The Pirates have hired Clint Hurdle as their manager.
Last year Hurdle was the hitting coach for the AL Champion Texas Rangers. He last managed in the big leagues for the Colorado Rockies in 2009. In Hurdle's 6+ years with the Rockies, he went 534-625. He was fired not even halfway into the 2009 season. He had some bad teams in Colorado, so you can't take too much from his record to determine what kind of coach he was.
He is definitely more animate than John Russell, of course, a tree stump is more animate than that guy. He has a focus on hitting which could definitely help some of the Pirates young bats, but it leaves the Pirates with an even greater need to hire a competent pitching coach or other coaches that can mature our young guys so we can compete.
All-in-all there weren't too many real options for the Pirates, but I think they got the right guy. I have never been the type to think that a manager has any real impact on the team anyway, so I really wasn't too concerned about this manager search. It'll be hard for Hurdle to not be an upgrade from Russell, so things are looking up, I guess.
Last year Hurdle was the hitting coach for the AL Champion Texas Rangers. He last managed in the big leagues for the Colorado Rockies in 2009. In Hurdle's 6+ years with the Rockies, he went 534-625. He was fired not even halfway into the 2009 season. He had some bad teams in Colorado, so you can't take too much from his record to determine what kind of coach he was.
He is definitely more animate than John Russell, of course, a tree stump is more animate than that guy. He has a focus on hitting which could definitely help some of the Pirates young bats, but it leaves the Pirates with an even greater need to hire a competent pitching coach or other coaches that can mature our young guys so we can compete.
All-in-all there weren't too many real options for the Pirates, but I think they got the right guy. I have never been the type to think that a manager has any real impact on the team anyway, so I really wasn't too concerned about this manager search. It'll be hard for Hurdle to not be an upgrade from Russell, so things are looking up, I guess.
30/30 Love
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When a baseball fan hears the words "thirty thirty", they automatically think about players like Carlos Beltran, Alfonso Soriano, Jimmy Rollins, and Grady Sizemore, for their ability to hit 30 home runs and steal 30 bases in a single season. However, something happened in sports last night that has not happened since 1982.
Kevin Love scored 31 points and collected 31 rebounds, all in one game.
I know Pittsburgh is not a basketball city, especially not when talking about the NBA. However, I am a fan of the league and I feel that this deserves some publicity. The dude got 31 rebounds in one friggin game. When you hear about someone grabbing 20 rebounds you are extremely impressed, but 31? Wow. That's not gonna happen again any time soon.
He earned it, give Kevin some love.
Kevin Love scored 31 points and collected 31 rebounds, all in one game.
I know Pittsburgh is not a basketball city, especially not when talking about the NBA. However, I am a fan of the league and I feel that this deserves some publicity. The dude got 31 rebounds in one friggin game. When you hear about someone grabbing 20 rebounds you are extremely impressed, but 31? Wow. That's not gonna happen again any time soon.
He earned it, give Kevin some love.
My NFL Week 10 Power Rankings
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10. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles are higher than 10 on most people's power rankings; I'm just not completely buying into the Michael Vick thing. He's been good this year, but has put up his numbers against weaker defenses. His best games were against the Lions, Jaguars, and Colts, none of whom are considered top defenses in this league, in fact they are all near the bottom. Eventually the Eagles are going to run into a defense that can shut down Mike Vick's legs and make him pass, and when that happens, the Eagles aren't that great of a football team.
9. New Orleans Saints
The Saints are a team that really aren't living up to their expectations. After winning the Super Bowl last year everyone expected them to come back and be in the top 2 or 3 teams in the NFC, and they really haven't done that this year. There defense has been good (top 5 in the league in points allowed per game), and their offense has been middle of the road (14th in points per game). They've struggled in big situations, including 3rd and 4th downs, and really aren't playing as well as last year. Once Bush and Thomas get back, things could change fast and they could be right back near the top of this list.
8. New England Patriots
Another team that I can't figure out is the Patriots. They have a good record at 5-2, but suffered a brutal loss to the Browns last week. Their running game is now relying on Benjarvus Green-Ellis, who has been better than most expected, but isn't the guy that's going to take your offense very far by himself. Fortunately for the Patriots, they don't need a top running back to win thanks to their quarterback. However, Randy Moss isn't there anymore and I don't think Brandon Tate is ready to be the home run threat that he can be, at least not yet. Their defense is gonna have to play better and one of these young receivers really has to step up for them to move up on the list.
7. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts have lost 3 games and are ahead of the 2-loss Patriots on my list. The reason for that certainly isn't their defense, it has been pretty bad this year. However, the presence of Peyton Manning is good enough to get them over the Patriots, Saints, and Eagles in my eyes. They have a very good receiving core and some pretty versatile running backs (once they get healthy). I see this team getting better and better as the season winds down, and the Colts will make a run in the playoffs.
6. Green Bay Packers
This team has been absolutely killed with injuries this year. The fact they are still #6 after what they have gone through this season really tells you a lot about the team. They have an elite quarterback in Aaron Rodgers and a very strong defense, and that alone is enough to take a team pretty far. They are going to have to get the run game going a little bit better if they want to have a shot at the end of the year.
5. New York Jets
This is a team that I'm not a big fan of, but couldn't help but put them near the top of the rankings. They have a good offense, and a very good defense. Mark Sanchez has been criticized a lot but gets his job done when it matters. Their run game is very strong, and that's without Shonne Greene playing to the level that he is capable of. Once the defense gets completely healthy, they're good enough to take the Jets the whole way by themselves.
4. Atlanta Falcons
Gotta love the Falcons. Great running game, a quarterback on the rise, and a strong defense. There's really nothing that this team doesn't do well, although they have some trouble with consistency, but I'm not worried, they'll be in the NFC Championship game.
3. Baltimore Ravens
The top 3 is when it starts to get real tough. I had to put the Ravens here at 3 just because of the 2 teams ahead of them. The Ravens have everything you want when you're building a Super Bowl contender, they have a very good quarterback, a couple strong running backs, and one of the best defenses in the game. However, a couple of their key guys are really getting up there in age (Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Derrick Mason), and although they are still performing well this year, there is always the fear of them getting hurt or slowing down. I wouldn't worry much if I were a Ravens fan, they have as good a chance as anybody to take the whole thing this year.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
Probably a surprise here, most Pittsburgh sports fan would put the Steelers up top without asking a question. However, a couple close wins over the Dolphins and Bengals a long with the loss to the Saints made me keep them off the top of the list. They've done a fantastic job on defense this year, ranking in the top 3 in almost all defensive statistics so far, and their offense looks to be near the top of the league as well when it's all going right. Ben Roethlisberger is one of the best quarterbacks in the league, Rashard Mendenhall is really showing the league what he has, and Mike Wallace is emerging. No reason why the Steelers can't win their 7th Super Bowl this year.
1. New York Giants
I had to do it. I've watched this team a couple times this year and I've been incredibly impressed every single time. It all starts with the defense. They've been brutal on quarterbacks this year, and they are getting off the field fast. They have some athletic linemen, as always, and they have a very capable secondary. Despite that, the thing that I think is going to carry this team is Eli Manning. He seems to be maturing and getting better every week, even after most people thought he had reached near his peak already. The guy has been in the league since 2004, but just keeps getting better. It also helps that he's has an absolute stud receiver break out this year in Hakeem Nicks. This guy is one of the best in the game, and nobody was saying that before this season started. Steve Smith is one of the best possession receivers in the game and a guy that Eli has complete confidence in in big situations. The running game has played over their expectations as well. Ahmad Bradshaw has broken out and Brandon Jacobs has been running with authority again this year. While a lot of rankings have the Ravens and Steelers ahead of the them, the Giants have just been too dominant lately for me to put them anywhere but #1.
The Eagles are higher than 10 on most people's power rankings; I'm just not completely buying into the Michael Vick thing. He's been good this year, but has put up his numbers against weaker defenses. His best games were against the Lions, Jaguars, and Colts, none of whom are considered top defenses in this league, in fact they are all near the bottom. Eventually the Eagles are going to run into a defense that can shut down Mike Vick's legs and make him pass, and when that happens, the Eagles aren't that great of a football team.
9. New Orleans Saints
The Saints are a team that really aren't living up to their expectations. After winning the Super Bowl last year everyone expected them to come back and be in the top 2 or 3 teams in the NFC, and they really haven't done that this year. There defense has been good (top 5 in the league in points allowed per game), and their offense has been middle of the road (14th in points per game). They've struggled in big situations, including 3rd and 4th downs, and really aren't playing as well as last year. Once Bush and Thomas get back, things could change fast and they could be right back near the top of this list.
8. New England Patriots
Another team that I can't figure out is the Patriots. They have a good record at 5-2, but suffered a brutal loss to the Browns last week. Their running game is now relying on Benjarvus Green-Ellis, who has been better than most expected, but isn't the guy that's going to take your offense very far by himself. Fortunately for the Patriots, they don't need a top running back to win thanks to their quarterback. However, Randy Moss isn't there anymore and I don't think Brandon Tate is ready to be the home run threat that he can be, at least not yet. Their defense is gonna have to play better and one of these young receivers really has to step up for them to move up on the list.
7. Indianapolis Colts
The Colts have lost 3 games and are ahead of the 2-loss Patriots on my list. The reason for that certainly isn't their defense, it has been pretty bad this year. However, the presence of Peyton Manning is good enough to get them over the Patriots, Saints, and Eagles in my eyes. They have a very good receiving core and some pretty versatile running backs (once they get healthy). I see this team getting better and better as the season winds down, and the Colts will make a run in the playoffs.
6. Green Bay Packers
This team has been absolutely killed with injuries this year. The fact they are still #6 after what they have gone through this season really tells you a lot about the team. They have an elite quarterback in Aaron Rodgers and a very strong defense, and that alone is enough to take a team pretty far. They are going to have to get the run game going a little bit better if they want to have a shot at the end of the year.
5. New York Jets
This is a team that I'm not a big fan of, but couldn't help but put them near the top of the rankings. They have a good offense, and a very good defense. Mark Sanchez has been criticized a lot but gets his job done when it matters. Their run game is very strong, and that's without Shonne Greene playing to the level that he is capable of. Once the defense gets completely healthy, they're good enough to take the Jets the whole way by themselves.
4. Atlanta Falcons
Gotta love the Falcons. Great running game, a quarterback on the rise, and a strong defense. There's really nothing that this team doesn't do well, although they have some trouble with consistency, but I'm not worried, they'll be in the NFC Championship game.
3. Baltimore Ravens
The top 3 is when it starts to get real tough. I had to put the Ravens here at 3 just because of the 2 teams ahead of them. The Ravens have everything you want when you're building a Super Bowl contender, they have a very good quarterback, a couple strong running backs, and one of the best defenses in the game. However, a couple of their key guys are really getting up there in age (Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Derrick Mason), and although they are still performing well this year, there is always the fear of them getting hurt or slowing down. I wouldn't worry much if I were a Ravens fan, they have as good a chance as anybody to take the whole thing this year.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
Probably a surprise here, most Pittsburgh sports fan would put the Steelers up top without asking a question. However, a couple close wins over the Dolphins and Bengals a long with the loss to the Saints made me keep them off the top of the list. They've done a fantastic job on defense this year, ranking in the top 3 in almost all defensive statistics so far, and their offense looks to be near the top of the league as well when it's all going right. Ben Roethlisberger is one of the best quarterbacks in the league, Rashard Mendenhall is really showing the league what he has, and Mike Wallace is emerging. No reason why the Steelers can't win their 7th Super Bowl this year.
1. New York Giants
I had to do it. I've watched this team a couple times this year and I've been incredibly impressed every single time. It all starts with the defense. They've been brutal on quarterbacks this year, and they are getting off the field fast. They have some athletic linemen, as always, and they have a very capable secondary. Despite that, the thing that I think is going to carry this team is Eli Manning. He seems to be maturing and getting better every week, even after most people thought he had reached near his peak already. The guy has been in the league since 2004, but just keeps getting better. It also helps that he's has an absolute stud receiver break out this year in Hakeem Nicks. This guy is one of the best in the game, and nobody was saying that before this season started. Steve Smith is one of the best possession receivers in the game and a guy that Eli has complete confidence in in big situations. The running game has played over their expectations as well. Ahmad Bradshaw has broken out and Brandon Jacobs has been running with authority again this year. While a lot of rankings have the Ravens and Steelers ahead of the them, the Giants have just been too dominant lately for me to put them anywhere but #1.
Duscherer Again?
Comments
The Pirates will be looking for some pitching this offseason. Now you could have said that same thing last year, but this year it appears more likely that the Pirates will actually sign a starter. If you thought we had a lot of question marks for the rotation a year ago, those questions seemed to have doubled after the 2010 season. Charlie Morton was supposed to develop into this team's ace, and now there are questions if he can ever be a major league #5 starter. Ross Ohlendorf struggled with injury problems all year and Zach Duke flat out stunk. The Pirates need to sign some pitchers this off season just to avoid setting more records for awfulness in the rotation.
Last year, I posted about my interest in the Pirates signing Oakland A's Pitcher Justin Duscherer. I've always liked the guy and wanted to see his high-upside come to the burgh. However the A's resigned him and gave him another shot. In return, Duscherer gave the A's 5 starts in April before being put on the 60 day DL... again. Most of the issues have been hip issues, which is a definite concern for a major league pitcher. However, there are some reasons that the Pirates could be able to sign him, and probably should at least try, here's just a few:
Duscherer wants to start this year, and he might not have that option on other teams. He would immediately be the Pirates #1 pitcher on opening day if healthy, and because of his injury questions and his subsequent low value, his head cannot be big enough to not be excited by that possibility. The Pirates aren't going to fool anybody, they aren't looking for a long term deal, and neither is Duscherer. I think it's a perfect fit, go get him Neal.
Last year, I posted about my interest in the Pirates signing Oakland A's Pitcher Justin Duscherer. I've always liked the guy and wanted to see his high-upside come to the burgh. However the A's resigned him and gave him another shot. In return, Duscherer gave the A's 5 starts in April before being put on the 60 day DL... again. Most of the issues have been hip issues, which is a definite concern for a major league pitcher. However, there are some reasons that the Pirates could be able to sign him, and probably should at least try, here's just a few:
- The Pirates don't need to sign a guy that's going to be in our rotation for 5 years. They really only need someone to get them through this year, with a possible option to help next year as well. The Pirates pitching is loaded in the lower levels of the minor leagues, and some of those guys should rise quickly and be in the big leagues next year. Duscherer is about to turn 33 years old, so he is nearing the end of his big league service time, so he's not looking for a long-term contract, which bodes well for the Pirates.
- Another reason that the Pirates could get this guy is that he doesn't as much value to the teams that are looking to contend this year. Why would a contender spend their money on a guy that hasn't played anything close to a full season since 2006? The attention in free agency this year, in terms of pitching, is firstly on Cliff Lee, and secondly on guys like Jorge De La Rosa, Hiroki Kuroda, and Carl Pavano. The big teams aren't going to go after Duscherer, which gives the Pirates a chance if they get in quick enough.
- A third point to make is that Duscherer could be attracted to Pittsburgh as a low-pressure situation where he can focus on getting out there and showing the rest of the league what he can do, and then hope for a trade at the deadline to a contending team looking for a solid starting pitcher. The competition in Pittsburgh is minimal for a guy of his calibur; he would be sure of his starting job the entire year and really be able to focus on reaching some of his potential. If he can do that, he could be a major piece in a trade that could bring in some players that can answer more serious, long term issues for the Pirates.
Duscherer wants to start this year, and he might not have that option on other teams. He would immediately be the Pirates #1 pitcher on opening day if healthy, and because of his injury questions and his subsequent low value, his head cannot be big enough to not be excited by that possibility. The Pirates aren't going to fool anybody, they aren't looking for a long term deal, and neither is Duscherer. I think it's a perfect fit, go get him Neal.
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