Whaddya Know, Good Teams Lose Too!

The 2011 Philadelphia Phillies won 102 games. In September, they lost eight straight games. Four of those games were to the Washington Nationals, who finished with a record of 80-81, and two more of those games were to the New York Mets, who finished with a record of 77-85. You could say that neither of those teams were very good, and the Phillies were the best team in the league. The New York Yankees won 97 games and lost a big series to the Oakland Athletics late in the season. The A's finished with 74 wins. The Colorado Rockies, who went 73-89 last year, took two of three from the 96 win Milwaukee Brewers in mid July. I could keep going with this, but I won't.

To say that playoff teams don't lose series to bad teams is false. It's so false that no one should ever have to prove that it's false, it should be common knowledge. Baseball is a random game; any team can beat any other team on any given day. The Astros were the worst team in the league last year and still won 35% of their games. That means they averaged more than one win for every three games they played. Is it out of the question to think that a team like that could win two of three from a really good team? No. In fact, you shouldn't be surprised at all when it happens.

The Pirates have their fans on pins and needles these days, and losing the first two games of a series to the Cubs in PNC Park certainly makes those pins and needles feel a little bit sharper. Most of you are smart enough not to freak out about this, but I felt the need to write it anyway. I've done it a few times this year, and I've screamed about it on the radio more than a few times.

Two really hot pitchers came into PNC Park and silenced the Pirates bats. Is that so hard to believe? Is that such a scary scenario that people would be seriously concerned about it?

Jeff Samardzija had posted a 2.37 ERA in his three starts against the Marlins, Mets, and Braves (three pretty respectable offenses) coming into his start last night. He struck out 24 batters in those 19 innings. Sure, he pitched a little better than anyone expected him too going eight shutout innings, but you really shouldn't have been shocked. He was feeling very confident on the mound and has some pretty good stuff to deal with. Baseball is a pitcher's game, a hot pitcher will beat a hot batter more often than not.

Paul Maholm has literally been the best pitcher in the game since June 29th. In his previous four starts (plus one inning in relief) before his gem against the Pirates on Tuesday, he posted a 0.89 ERA in 30.1 innings. He did it against the Astros, Braves, Diamondbacks, and Marlins. Again, not exactly horrid offenses.

Two games means very little. You always hate to lose home series, especially against teams you're decidedly better against, but you aren't going to win them all. I don't know the exact probability of a winning an individual baseball game, but I'm guessing it never goes any higher than 55%-60%. What are the chances of hitting on a 40%-45% chance two in a row? Not favorable, but not so bad you wouldn't consider betting on it.

Just relax. The Pirates are 12 games over .500 and just got better with the addition of Wandy Rodriguez, these two games mean very little. Even if the Cubs complete the sweep tomorrow, there are still seven favorable matchups ahead against the Astros (who are getting worse every day) and then the Cubs again before they have a big series with the Reds.

If the Pirates fall to four or five games out of the wild card race, I might start to worry a bit, but for now I'm going to suck all of the goodness out of being a playoff level team that I can. You should do the same.