4/11 Pirates Win Probability Chart

I'm not going to start posting these for every game, mainly because Brian from Raise The Jolly Roger already does that, but last night's graph was especially intriguing.

And by intriguing I mean disgusting. The Pirates never led in this game. However, they found themselves favored to win two different times after the third inning. The Jose Tabata lead off triple in the fourth put the Pirates at a 54.2% chance to win the game. Rod Barajas lead off double in the sixth gave them an even 50% chance. Once the Pirates loaded the bases with nobody out, they had a 66.7% chance to win. Then Tabata struck out and their chance dropped to 55.2%. It would get the whole way down to 28.9% after Andrew McCutchen struck to end the threat and the Pirates wouldn't get past 38.0% the rest of the way.


Source: FanGraphs

This is a game that the Pirates should have won. The Astros did everything but hand them runs. The Pirates had four chances to score a run on a fly ball or a soft grounder, or any number of other ways without actually getting a hit, and they didn't do it. This team is now hitting .232 with runners in scoring position, .244 with men on anywhere, and .167 with the bases loaded. They have just 22 extra base hits with men on base.