Which Andrew McCutchen Will We See In 2012?

Andrew McCutchen is a stud, everybody knows that. He's going to be a star in this league for years to come. However, he's not all that predictable at the plate.

In McCutchen's first season in the major leagues he had 493 plate appearances and hit .286/.365/.471, a very solid line for anybody, much more so for a rookie. In his second year, McCutchen hit an eerily similar .286/.365/.449, another very good season.

However, last year things changed a bit. McCutchen hit .259/.364/.456 in 678 plate appearances. The average was down, the on-base percentage was right on track with his career, but he slugged better and hit for more power.

The reason for that is probably because of his place in the order. We're going to ignore his first half year in the majors for the next two paragraphs.

In 2010, McCutchen started 152 games for the Pirates. In 82 of those starts he led off, that's 54%. He was 2nd in the batting order 17 times (11%) and started 53 games from the three hole (35%). Last year, McCutchen started 155 games. He led off 46 times (30%), hit third 82 times (53%), and hit clean-up 27 times (17%). That means in 70% of his games, he was hitting in a power spot of the batting order. Compare that with 2010 when he was in a power spot just 35% of the time, and you can understand why his approach changed and his power numbers went up at the expense of batting average.

The really encouraging news last year was that McCutchen became a more disciplined hitter and kept his OBP up. Include that with the added power, and you'll take the lower batting average every time, especially in a powerless lineup like the Pirates had.

So what will we see in 2012? Well, with Jose Tabata and Alex Presley to McCutchen's sides in the outfield, there's very little chance Andrew will bat anywhere but three or four in the order. Of course, there will be injuries along the way that could have McCutchen move up, but assuming Tabata and Presley stay healthy and perform, McCutchen is locked into the three hole. Team that with the fact that McCutchen is still developing more power, and I would say his numbers will be more like 2011 than 2010 this year.

I certainly think McCutchen has the potential to hit for a better average than .259, even when he's hitting for power. This guy could be a .280/.375/.470 guy, which would make him one of the best hitters in the league. That probably won't happen in 2012, but it could.

I'm not in the business of making predictions, but if I had to, I would peg McCutchen for about a .270/.365/.460 season. My guess is that he'll hit 20 home runs again pretty easily. I don't think he's going to be near the 30 mark yet, but that could come in the future. I'll give him 25 bombs in 2012.

Andrew McCutchen is already one of the best players in the league, and he continues to get better. This 2012 season will go a long ways to show us how and at what rate he is developing and what we can expect from him down the road. It'll be fun to watch, there's no doubt about that.