The Chicago Cubs have been poor for quite some time now, and their farm system doesn't seem to do all that much to make people believe they'll be turning it around any time soon. They forwent possible trades of Aramis Ramirez and Carlos Pena last year that could have netted them some quality prospects, and they lost both of those players to free agency this offseason. Nice work.
However, they did bring in Theo Epstein this offseason who made a splash pretty quickly by acquiring slugging prospect Anthony Rizzo from the Padres. Baseball Prospectus did their rankings before this trade, so I'm just going to throw Rizzon in at number one and give you the rest after that. Here's the list:
- Anthony Rizzo, 1B
- Brett Jackson, OF
- Javier Baez, SS
- Welington Castillo, C
- Dillon Maples, RHP
- Matt Szczur, OF
- Josh Vitters, 3B
- Jeimer Candelario, 3B
- Trey McNutt, RHP
- Marco Hernandez, SS
- Junior Lake, SS/3B
- Rafael Dolis, RHP
- Dan Vogelbach, 1B
- Jae-Hoon, OF
- Chris Carpenter, RHP
- Tony Zych, RHP
- Ryan Flaherty, UT
DJ Lamahieu, INF(traded)- Zeke DeVoss, OF
- Reggie Golden, OF
Anyways, the Cubs have an impact prospect in Rizzo, seriously that guy could be one of the better power hitters in the game as soon as this year. Unfortunately for Chicago, they lack big time prospects after him. Jackson is ranked at number two and he doesn't project to be much more than an above-average outfielder. He has 5-tools, but none of them are outstanding. Baseball Prospectus has his "perfect world" projection as "an above-average everyday center fielder", which isn't really what you'd expect from your 2nd best prospect. He definitely has some upside and could be a very good player, but this guy isn't going to be a superstar. The good news for the Cubs is that Jackson is just about big league ready, so they'll get to see him this summer.
Javier Baez comes in at number two, and he is a lot different than Jackson. He was drafted just last summer and at the age of 19 he has a long way to go before he sees the major leagues. He was ranked the best pure hitter in the 2011 draft, but he fell a little ways to the Cubs at number 9 because he was just coming out of high school. Again, he has a long ways to go, but he could be a big time power hitter that hits for very good average as well. The bat speed is there and the hand-eye is apparently off the charts, so Baez has a very high ceiling. However, as a 19 year old, you never really know. He's very similar to Pirates prospect Josh Bell, but he probably has a higher ceiling.
After those top three, it gets kind of thin for the Cubs. The good news is that they have a solid depth of guys that could be major league players, but none of them are super impressive. Their number four guy Castillo could be a solid power hitting catcher, but he has some holes that make people a little apprehensive about him. He has a high ceiling and has a very strong arm which should help his chances of becoming a big league starter, but this is far from a sure bet.
The Cubs have a couple of right-handed pitchers in their top ten in Dillon Maples and Trey McNutt. Maples was a 2011 14th round draft pick that would have been drafted earlier if not for his college commitment. The Cubs wrote him a check that he couldn't turn down, and now he's one of their best prospects. He is also just 19 years old, so he's quite a long ways away from the bigs and has a lot of work to do before he becomes seriously relevant. McNutt is a guy with good stuff that has been held back by injuries. He lost a lot of velocity last year and his stock plummeted a bit. If he can get healthy and stay healthy, he could turn into a solid major league pitcher, but again, this is a risky bet.
Rounding out the top 11 the Cubs have four infielders. Vitters, Candelario, Hernandez, and Lake. None of them are possible superstars, but they all seem to have some tools that could help them become relevant in the major leagues. They are all very young (none of them are older than 22, and Candelario is actually just 18), so you should be seeing their names on this list again the next couple years. We aren't going to go into detail about them, but check out the Baseball Prospectus article I linked to above to read more.
The rest of the top twenty is made up mainly by position players. The Cubs have just five pitchers in their top 20, which would concern me if I were a Chicago guy. You need pitching in the big leagues to win, and the Cubs really don't have a lot of that anywhere in the system. They have a lot of young talented hitters that they could use to trade for some pitching help, but right now their system doesn't project all that well for the future. The Cubs are in good shape to have a loaded infield for a good while, but they are going to lack pitching and outfield power, two essential keys to winning in today's league.
I'm not real sure how the Cubs system compares to the Pirates, but they are two different stories. The Pirates have a top-heavy system with some serious superstar talent at the top, but they have very little after that. The Cubs have a system with a lot of marginal prospects that could turn into above-average players but don't have the superstar potential. I'm not sure which kind of system I'd rather have, but Chicago certainly has something to work with here. If they can get their finances straightened out, they could be a competitive team in the next few years, but Theo Epstein and company certainly have their work cut out for them.