N.L. Central Bill James Projections - Cincinnati Reds

This week I have been going through the Pirates competition in the National League Central and looking at each team's projected lineup and pitching rotation and their 2012 Bill James projections. Next up is the Reds. Here's there stuff:

And here, again, is the Pirates numbers:

It's clear that the Pirates are not on the offensive level of the Reds, but the gap between these two teams is less than the gaps we have seen in the last two posts. The Reds triple-slash line of .273/.346/.448 isn't all that much better than the Pirates .265/.329/.424. There's a pretty big difference in wOBA, which isn't surprising since the Reds have been one of the best offensive teams in the league the last two years.

The Pirates are also behind the competition in pitching, as they are when you stack them up against most other big league teams. The Reds made a big move to add Mat Latos earlier this offseason. It should be noted here that Latos' Bill James projections were made when he was still with the Padres and playing in Petco Park, so his numbers should be worse now that he calls Great American Ballpark his home stadium. Even with that, the Reds team projected ERA in this post is 3.75, which is still a good amount better than the Pirates at 4.10. The Reds have a FIP of 4.03 which is strangely a lot higher than the ERA, most of the other teams you look at are a lot closer in the projection systems. Cincinnati's staff doesn't strike out a ton of batters and they have the same K/9 as the Pirates.

Right now, the Reds look to be a very competitive baseball team that should make a run at the National League Central division crown. Their offense is probably the best in the division and their pitching staff has enough upside to warrant me picking them to win the division this year, which I am doing.

Tomorrow we'll get more positive as we look at the Chicago Cubs, and eventually finish up with the Houston Astros.