Late last night I started a post-series of looking at the projected lineups and pitching rotations for the Pirates National League Central division opponents. I've been compiling all the data for the other teams and checking out their players Bill James projections for 2012. The first post was on the St. Louis Cardinals,
you can read that here. This one is about the division's second best team last year, the hated Milwaukee Brewers. Here's the data:
For comparison's sake, here's the Pirates stats again:
I must again emphasize the fact that just taking the average of a bunch of averages (in the case of AVG, OBP, SLG, etc.) is not a mathematically correct thing to do, but it works for this post since we are comparing two equally incorrect things. You have to note for the Brewers that they are going to be without their best hitter,
Ryan Braun for 50 games to start the year. The Bill James projections aren't adjusted for that, so his games, home runs, and stolen bases will be significantly lower than shown above. However, it's not a bad bet to say the rest of his numbers there will be close to right on. The Brewers lose a lot without Braun, as they will have to (probably) start both
Carlos Gomez and
Nyjer Morgan everyday, and neither of those players has any power in their bat. This offense is already lost
Prince Fielder this offseason and will not be anywhere near as good in 2012. The pitching staff should be once again solid, as the Brewers still have
Zack Greinke and
Shaun Marcum to add onto the ace they have in
Yovani Gallardo.
When you compare the Brewers to the Pirates, it's certainly not favorable. It's not nearly as big of a gap as we saw yesterday with the Cardinals, but the Brewers certainly look better on paper. The 3.71 team ERA is what separates the Brewers from the Pirates and keeps them in the playoff hunt despite downgrading significantly on offense. The Pirates pitchers are going to have to be extremely effective and over perform to keep up with the big guns in the division. It's not impossible, and the Brewers and Cardinals both have a lot of downside with some older players while the Pirates have a lot of upside with younger ones, but betting on the Pirates to win this division would not be a good decision, regardless of the spread.
The Brewers definitely aren't the same 96 win team that won them the National League Central last year, but they should still be a formidable squad that the Pirates will probably continue to struggle against. Let's hope the numbers lie in this situation.
