Kevin Correia vs. Brad Lincoln

Assuming the Pirates don't make another starting pitcher acquisition before the season starts, it looks like the rotation will look like this:

Now Morton may miss a start or two, so he will actually be penciled in as the fifth starter at the beginning of the season, and both Correia and Lincoln are likely to make at least one start in April. However, the Pirates have a decision to make when Morton is ready to go again.

They have to choose between starting Correia, who won won 12 games last year and made the all-star team, and Lincoln, who posted a 4.29 ERA and held opposing batters to a .279 batting average against as a starter last year. Let's compare their 2011 seasons more closely:

Name	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	K/9
Correia	27	26	154	4.79	4.85	1.39	10.2	1.4	2.3	4.5
Lincoln	12	8	47.2	4.72	4.03	1.469	10.2	0.8	3.0	5.5

From those numbers, Lincoln appears to be the better pitcher. However, Lincoln had a pretty small sample in the major leagues, and didn't wow anybody at AAA before his call-up (4.19 ERA, 9.3 H/9, 1.7 BB/9, 7.6 K/9 in 19 starts).

Lincoln is the younger of the two (he is 26 while Correia is 31), which gives him more upside. However, Lincoln is also more likely to really blow up. Let's go even deeper and check out the 2011 pitch f/x for the two pitchers:
Kevin Correia:

Pitch Type	Veloc	H-Break	V-Break	Selection	Strike%
4-Seam	90.7	-2.46	8.25	29.4%	67.2%
2-Seam	90.6	-6.79	6.58	17.1%	66.3%
Curve	78.0	7.23	-5.12	12.1%	53.9%
Change	86.3	-6.58	4.81	9.7%	56.4%
Slider	87.7	3.02	4.38	22.3%	65.3%

Brad Lincoln:

Pitch Type	Veloc	H-Break	V-Break	Selection	Strike%
4-Seam	91.8	-6.10	6.72	65.4%	66.4%
2-Seam	90.3	-10.00	4.63	2.0%	46.7%
Curve	81.6	8.25	-5.74	18.2%	67.2%
Change	84.2	-5.39	-0.07	11.4%	61.9%
Slider	83.7	-0.30	-3.68	0.8%	66.7%

If these two, I would say Lincoln has slightly better "stuff". Neither of them are big strikeout pitchers, but if I had to pick one of the two it would be Lincoln in terms of the quality of the pitches he throws. Correia does mix it up more often, which helps him have an easier time keeping hitters off balance. Lincoln can become quite predictable at times and his fastball gets crushed when he doesn't locate it, which is a problem.

All of that said, there are advantages and disadvantages to both of these guys. It's really picking the lesser of the two evils, since neither of these guys are ideal for a major league rotation, but the Pirates don't have any other legitimate options at this point. If it were up to me, I'd take Lincoln over Correia, if not only because of his advantages in age and upside.

Kevin Correia vs. Brad Lincoln

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