The question is posed every spring. Will this be the year the Pittsburgh Pirates break the losing streak? They already hold the all-time sports record for most consecutive losing seasons, and math suggests that it can't last forever, but when will it end? The Pirates played with our hearts last year as they found themselves in first place in mid-July, but when all was said and done, they had number 19 in the books.
So is there anything to suggest that 2012 will be any different?
For one, the division is a lot worse. Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder are gone, and Ryan Braun will be suspended for 50 games. This division was average at best before all of this happened, and now it has to be the worst division in baseball on paper. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if it took just 90 wins to take the NL Central this year.
But should we even be talking about winning the division? I think we should focus on getting win #81 and going from there. Can the Pirates do that?
Well the offseason additions weren't great. They really didn't add anybody that had other teams seriously interested in them. Clint Barmes, Rod Barajas, Erik Bedard, Casey McGehee, and A.J. Burnett will all certainly help the team, but they are far from all-star calibur palyers. Add that to the fact that the Pirates lost Ryan Doumit and Paul Maholm, and this team only looks marginally better than last year in terms of the names on the team.
The big x-factor this year is development. Guys like Andrew McCutchen, Jose Tabata, Neil Walker, and Pedro Alvarez all have potential that they haven't fully realized yet. If the Pirates got maximum seasons from all of those guys, I think they would win the division. However, they aren't going to get maximum-level seasons from all of them. Maybe one or two, but not all, it just doesn't work like that.
Alvarez is the big one. He's the only true power bat the Pirates have and he has the potential to be an all-star level guy who swats 30-35 home runs. Will he get there this year? Almost surely no. A lot of the Pirates success depends on how close he gets though.
The pitching staff is better than we've seen in a long time, and the offense has more potential than we've seen in a long time. The bullpen is solid. If this team puts it all together, I don't think .500 will be much of an obstacle. But again, what are the chances of the Pittsburgh Pirates putting it all together, it hasn't happened in 19 years, so why should we believe it'll happen this year?
The great thing about life is that you never know what the future holds. There is also reason to hope and to dream, and that's what Pirate fans have gotten all to used to. Will 2012 be the year we break the streak? I'm not going to say yes, but for the first time in my life, I'm not going to say no.
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