After a very exciting first half of the 2011 season, the Pirates have fallen back under .500 with little hope of getting back to it, and are headed towards their 19th straight losing season. The good news is that the Pirates will be back to 0 wins and 0 losses at the start of the 2012 season, and there should be some pretty high expectations for that club. Let's take a look at what it should look like:
Catcher:
With Chris Snyder missing almost the entire 2011 season due to injury and being scheduled to hit free agency after this year (he has a $6.75 million option), I would doubt that the Pirates will bring him back. That leaves Ryan Doumit, who has been the Pirates catcher for the last handful of years. Next year could be the first year he isn't on the roster. His contract is up, but he has a $7.25 million club option with a $750K buyout. There's a chance that the team will consider picking that option up, especially with Tony Sanchez struggling in the minor leagues this year. If I had to guess, I kind of doubt that the Pirates bring Doumit back, and they explore a cheaper free agent option while crossing their fingers for Sanchez to turn it around and develop into the player he can be. Here are the scheduled free agent catchers for 2012:
Rod Barajas, Josh Bard, Henry Blanco, Ramon Castro, Ramon Hernandez, Jason Kendall, Gerald Laird, Jose Molina, Yadier Molina ($7 million club option that will most likely be picked up), Dioner Navarro, Ivan Rodriguez, Brian Schneider, Kelly Shoppach, Matt Treanor, and Jason Varitek.
I honestly have no clue what the Pirates are going to do with the catching position. It really doesn't make sense to pick up options for Doumit or Snyder and I really don't think the Pirates look at Michael McKenry as a starting option, so there's a good chance that one of those guys above could be starting for the Pirates next year, I just have no idea who it could be. We'll keep you updated not his one.
First Base:
This is another tough one. Derrek Lee has just this year on his contract and there's really no way in my mind that the Pirates even consider trying to work a deal with him. Garrett Jones will almost certainly be back on the roster in 2012, but I don't know if the Pirates are confident with him being the every day starter. The big name free agents are Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols, but there's no way the Pirates will be anywhere near the bidding war for them. That leaves names like Russell Branyan, Michael Cuddyer, Ross Gload, Brad Hawpe, Casey Kotchman, Mark Kotsay, Xavier Nady, and Wily Mo Pena as reasonable free agent options. I don't see the Pirates signing another free agent to play first next year, I think they'll probably start the year with Jones and see if they can turn Matt Hague into a major league starter. Hague is 26 years old already, so he's not exactly a top prospect that we should be expecting to be an everyday guy for years to come, but he could definitely help the team with his bat if he develops a little further. I still think Pedro Alvarez should eventually be at first base, but with his performance this year, there's no reason to be really confident that he'll actually be a major league player someday. I'm saying that Jones is the guy at the beginning of the year and they see what they have in the minors before making a decision for the future.
Second Base:
This one's easy, Neil Walker has continued to show that he's an everyday major league second baseman. There's no need to look anywhere else, and Josh Harrison has shown that he's a good option as a backup.
Shortstop:
This is a position where there are always some question marks, but I don't see many this year. Ronny Cedeno has had another unspectacular year, but has shown valuable ability at defense and has had a few hot streaks that keep his offensive numbers somewhat respectable. His contract is up but he has a $3 million option that I see the Pirates picking up. Chase d'Arnaud will also most likely be on the major league roster on Opening Day and should be the back-up while getting some starts there and possibly at third base.
Third Base:
I really wish this was another short one, but unfortunately it's not. Pedro Alvarez has had a horrific 2011 season and now we have no idea what's going to happen with him. He is technically out of options, but there is little doubt that he will be granted the 4th option year and the Pirates will be able to do what they want with him next year. If he can start to hit the ball better through the rest of this year and do some positive things in winter ball (if he plays), he could be back on the Opening Day roster to be the every day guy. However, I wouldn't put any money on that happening. My guess is that he starts in AAA and third base is manned by a combination of Harrison and d'Arnaud. Brandon Wood is another interesting name here. He is only signed through 2011, but it appears that the Pirates really like what they've seen from him this year, and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him back with the team next year in bench role. If he plays well for the rest of this year and in spring training, he could be the starting third baseman next year.
Left Field:
Alex Presley is the most likely name here. The Pirates have three speedy outfielders that get on base a lot, and I think this team will be content with starting all 3 of those guys to begin the year. I would rather see them get a power hitter to play one of the corner spots, but it might not be the best option right now. There are names like Laynce Nix, Jonny Gomes, Jason Kubel, Cody Ross, and Nick Swisher that could be available in free agency to help out with the bats a little bit, but I am doubting the Pirates sign a free agent outfielder. Presley should be the starter in left field on Opening Day.
Center Field:
Andrew McCutchen.
Right Field:
Jose Tabata has been extremely hot since returning from the DL and with his new 6-year extension, he will be a starter in the outfield for years to come. Right field could be his future with the defense Presley brings, and he'll be a good option out there on both sides of the ball. We're still hoping Tabata develops some more power, but either way he should be a very good player next year.
Bench:
The bench is a crapshoot right now. I'm going to say that Josh Harrison and Chase d'Arnaud are locks, and there's a good chance that Brandon Wood could be there as well. That leaves them with some need for outfielders. I don't see them bringing Matt Diaz back, so they will have to go out and acquire a player or two in free agency. I mentioned some names above that could start, but some cheaper options includes Juan Rivera, Willie Harris, Xavier Nady, and Josh Willingham. Again, there's really no way to say what they are going to try to do right now, but it's a pretty good bet that the Pirates will be signing a free agent or two this offseason to fill some bench spots.
Starting Rotation:
The sure things in the rotation are Charlie Morton, James McDonald, and Jeff Karstens. Karstens still doesn't excite me, but after what he's done this year it would be ludicrous to not make him a starter for 2012. Paul Maholm could be back if the Pirates pick up his $9.75 million option or rework his deal, which I would say happens. That leaves them with another spot, which could be filled by Brad Lincoln, Ross Ohlendorf, or even Kevin Correia if they bring him back. Rudy Owens has taken a few steps back this year and doesn't look to be ready for the big leagues yet, although he could be called up pretty quickly if he returns to form. Jeff Locke has had a very good season and is showing great signs at AAA, so he could be in the rotation midway through 2012. There are a ton of guys that could fill these final 2 spots, and none of them are exactly ace-caliber. The Pirates really just need to do what they can to fill the spots until 2013 when they see Jameson Taillon and Gerrit Cole reach the majors (hopefully).
Bullpen:
I don't even want to get into this too much, just because it's so unpredictable. Joel Hanrahan, Evan Meek, Daniel McCutchen, and Tony Watson should be fixtures in the pen next year. Danny Moskos will be either in the big leagues or AAA, and should factor into as well. We don't know if the Pirates will bring back Jose Veras and Chris Resop, but I wouldn't be opposed to either one. Joe Beimel should be gone and we'll see what Bryan Morris turns into in the first few months of the season. This team has a pretty strong core of bullpen arms, and could have another solid unit if they can add another power arm in the offseason. Possible free agent targets could be Jon Rauch, Frank Francisco, and Matt Capps. I doubt they sign any of those three, but we definitely aren't going to see them go after Heath Bell, Jonathan Broxton, or Jonathan Papelbon.
All-in-all this team is going to have some good upside. It doesn't look like a World Series team yet, and I kind of doubt management sells out to make this the best possible big league team in 2012. They are still waiting for 2013 when these young players are closer to fully developed and they start getting these ace-calibur arms closer to the big leagues. I'm not going to make any predictions about 2013, but it should be an exciting year.
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