It probably would've made more sense to review the Pirates' year a month from now, but I'm impulsive and impatient, so I wrote up reviews on their top 11 prospects heading into the year according to Baseball Prospectus.
We’ll start out with prospects six to eleven.
11. Zack Von Rosenberg, RHP, 9/24/90
a. What BP called him: Two-star prospect
b. What BP said:
“Rosenberg could be a star-level starter if he finds more velocity. His body oozes projection, as he’s a long-armed, skinny right-hander with sikly-smooth mechanics. Those that believe in the projection see a good third, maybe even second starter; those that don’t see a back-end rotation piece."c. How he’s pitched: 94.1 IP, 15 BB, 82 Ks, 37% GB, 6.58 ERA, 4.97 FIP at Class A West Virginia.
d. Smarter people have said: BP’s Kevin Goldstein called his outing on July 21st “best outing of the year by a country mile,” (6 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 5 K). Tim Williams at PiratesProspects.com recently reviewed him, calling him “one of the bigger disappointments in the minors this year.”
e. Comments: 6’5” guys who can get their fair share of strikeouts and limit walks don’t grow on trees, so no one should give up on Von Rosenberg yet – he was born in the 90’s for crying out loud! There’s also reason to be encouraged by his recent performances; since Jun 12th he has 36 strikeouts against just three walks in 42 innings.
10. Colton Cain , LHP, 2/5/91
a. What BP called him: Two-star prospect.
b. What BP said:
“Cain is built like a classic power right-hander from Texas, only he’s a southpaw. He’s highly projectable; he already sits in the low 90s and tops out at 94. If Cain develops, he could be a good third starter.”c. How he’s pitched: 96.2 IP, 29 BB, 75 Ks, 43% GB, 3.26 ERA, 4.02 FIP at Class A West Virginia.
d. Smarter people have said: Baseball America’s Jim Callis said of him that “the key to Cain is how much better his stuff gets. At this point, it’s more average to solid than plus. Right now, I’d peg his ceiling as that of a No. 3 starter, though I’d like to see him miss a few more bats.”
e: Like Von Rosenberg, Cain has had a so-so season leaving Pirate fans wanting more. He’s even younger than his right-handed teammate, however, and it’ll take time to really know what the Pirates have with him.
9. Diego Moreno, RHP, 7/21/86
a. What BP called him: Three-star prospect.
b. What BP said:
“Prior to the 2010 draft, Moreno had the best pure arm in the system, sitting at 94-96 mph. Unlike many power-armed relievers, he has plus-plus control.”c. How he’s pitched: 24.2 IP, 11 BB, 24 Ks, 44% GB, 4.01 ERA, 4.16 FIP at High Class A Bradenton, 11 IP, 3 BB, 11 Ks, 29% GB, 4.91 ERA, 3.44 FIP at AA Altoona.
d. Smarter people have said: There hasn't been a lot written about Moreno, possibly because he is a reliever who hasn't made it past AA ball and also missed a month and a half with some shoulder issues (which he now appears to be over).
e: Comments: In his last 10 appearances he has allowed just two earned runs and struck out 10 against four walks. Moreno is already 25, so the Pirates could conceivably call him up to the big leagues in September, if not sooner.
8. Jeff Locke, LHP, 11/20/87
a. What BP called him: Three-star prospect.
b. What BP said:
“Acquired from the Braves in the Nate McLouth deal, the left-hander saw every aspect of his game step forward as he led the organization with 139 strikeouts. Locke could be a fourth or fifth starter, similar in many ways to members of the current Pirate rotation.”c. How he’s pitched: 112.1 IP, 42 BB, 102 Ks, 47% GB, 4.41 ERA, 3.86 FIP at AA Altoona.
d. Smarter people have said: Williams at PiratesProspects.com wrote, “Locke doesn’t really have a standout pitch, and his overall stuff isn’t dominant. We listed Locke as a potential 3-5 starter. His lack of dominant performances doesn’t do much to dispel that projection.”
e: Comments: Even if Locke’s game doesn’t progress much from here, he figures to provide solid depth to the rotation or turn into a trade chip, giving the front office plenty of flexibility going forward. Not to suggest that other systems are full of potential aces and number two starters, but Locke's profile sounds a little too familiar if you're a Pirate fan.
7. Starling Marte, OF, 10/9/88
a. What BP called him: Three-star prospect.
b. What BP said:
“Marte’s tools still offer plenty to dream on. He has a quick, quiet swing and outstanding hand-eye coordination, giving him the ability to hit for average. He could be a plus defender with hitting ability and speed, but not enough secondary skills to be a star.”c. How he’s hit: .310/.344/.458 (802 OPS), .348 wOBA, 17 SB, 7 HR, 13 BB, 81 Ks, .375 BABIP, 19% LD.d. Smarter people have said: Goldstein wrote on August first “The Pirates hoped that a healthy hand would lead him to drive balls better and it has.” While Jim Callis said of Marte, “He hits for average, he runs well, he plays a good center field. The question is how much his aggressiveness and his lack of power will hold him. He’s a good prospect, but not an elite one.” Meanwhile Bed Badler at Baseball America said in a chat that Marte will “be in the mix, more towards the back end” of next year’s top 100 prospects list.
e: Comments: You could argue that Marte has had the most successful season in the Pirates’ farm system relative to expectations. He has yet to answer questions about his plate discipline – he’ll need to improve on his 3.1% walk rate – but the defense is there, the hit tool is there and he has more home runs and doubles than he did in ’10 or ‘09 combined.
6. Bryan Morris, RHP, 3/28/87
a. What BP called him: Three-star prospect.
b. What BP said:
“Morris smoothed out his delivery and the results were immediate. He’s a big, strong right-hander who sits at 91-94 mph and touches 96, and he complements the heater with two quality breaking balls in a slider and hard curve that both project as at least big-leave average. Morris could end up a solid middle-rotation starter."c. How he’s pitched: 58.2 IP, 26 BB, 47 K, 61% GB, 3.99 ERA, 3.66 FIP at AA Altoona.
d. Smarter people have said: Not much, (that I can find, at least).
e. Comments: Morris seems to have been converted into a relief pitcher, having made just six starts on the year. If he’s like most converted relievers, his stuff should play up a tick in the bullpen where he can empty the tank in one inning. Morris’ stats are unspectacular, but he does own a Morton-esque 61% GB rate. If he can keep doing that, he’ll be a big leaguer.
*Pirate fans, please get used to a really annoying lack of ability to spell Gerrit’s name correctly among fans. Expect lots of Garrit, Gerit Garret, Gerret, Gerit, etc. I saw lifelong Yankee fans spell “Pettitte” every wrong way possible and never developed a good way to cope with the frustration. It almost makes me think they should’ve drafted Rendon. How do you botch Rendon? Rendun?
Part 2 of this series can be read here.