Previously I reviewed the seasons of Pirates’ 6-11th ranked prospects according to Baseball Prospectus’ preseason list. Today I review prospects five through one. To be clear, this list isn’t necessarily a reflection of their best prospects today. You won't find Gerrit Cole on this list. It's just a review of their top prospects coming into the year.
a. What BP called him: Three-star Prospect.
b. What BP said:
“The strike-throwing lefty continued to prove his doubters wrong by winning the Eastern League ERA title," with a perfect world projection of “fourth starter and innings eater.”
c. How he’s pitched: 109.2 IP, 69 K’s, 32 BB, 43% GB, 4.76 ERA, 4.10 FIP at AAA Indianapolis.
d. Smarter people have said: Owens’ name hasn’t come up much this season. He was mentioned at BP as an option for the rotation if the Pirates were to become sellers way back in May. Sellers? Psht. So young... so naive.
e: Comments: Owens has been very consistent in his steady progress up the Minor League ranks, posting FIPS between 3.12 and 3.61 dating back to 2007. However, he hasn’t been able to maintain the same strikeout rates in his first taste of AAA, posting a career low K/PA of 14.4 % and his highest BB/PA rate since rookie ball. He’s young for the International League at 23 years old, but it appears his ceiling of a 4th starter is correct. There's value in that in baseball, but will he ever represent anything to the Bucs other than a cheaper version of what they already have?
a. What BP called him: Four-star prospect
b. What BP said:
“Sanchez is the rare catcher with the ability to impact games both behind the plate and at it. He has a mature approach at the plate and scouts believe that many of his doubles will turn into home runs down the road. He could be an above-average everyday catcher, both offensively and defensively.”
c. How he’s hit: .239/.341/.314 (.655 OPS), .305 wOBA, 4 HR, 4 SB, 37 BB, 53 Ks, .277 BABIP, 19% LD at AA Altoona.
d. Smarter people have said: Goldstein wrote in a round-up of teams’ top prospects that the Pirates “have lost a potentially big trade chip in catcher Tony Sanchez, who has gone from the catcher of the future to a player hitting just .235 while throwing out a disappointing 21 percent of opposing base stealers,” with one executive adding “this guy was the fourth pick on the draft, and now he’s doing nothing.” Meanwhile, Tim Williams at PiratesProspects.com wonders whether Sanchez is having a down year or a bust.
e: Comments: What happened to this guy? Three straight years with a wOBA hovering between .362 and .409 with ISO’s of at least .140, and all of a sudden he can’t buy a hit with the Curve. To make matters worse, he’s putting more balls on the ground than he has since his debut at low A State college and he hasn’t lived up to his reputation as a great thrower, either. The good news is that his BABIP is over 50 points lower than his career average and the 23-year-old still has time on his side. Still, it has been a disappointing season for a player who came into the year looking like a solid bet to be a quality everyday player.
a. What BP called him: Four-star prospect.
b. What BP said:
“Heredia possesses every aspect of a highly projectable arm. He’s tall with plenty of room to fill out, and his delivery is uncommonly smooth for such a young pitcher with his kind of height and long levers. He already has average velocity. Heredia’s ceiling was unmatched in this year’s international class, and he has true star potential.”
c. How he’s pitched: 18.1 IP, 15 BB, 17 K’s, 6.87 ERA, 36% GB, 6.64 FIP with the Rookie GCL Pirates.
d. Smarter people have said: Heredia made Goldstein’s top 101 Cheat Sheet on April 7th and only recently made his GCL debut.
e: Comments: It’s way too early to make any meaningful assessments based on what Heredia has done. The sample is tiny and he was born after (insert Bill Simmons pop culture reference from 1994).*
a. What BP called him: Five-star prospect
b. What BP said:
“Not even Taillon can match Allie’s arm strength. One of the hardest throwers ever to come out of the prep ranks, Allie can sit at 97-98 mph. Allie’s ceiling is higher than that of even Taillon, but his chances of reaching it are significantly smaller due to lack of polish.”
c. How he’s pitched: 20.1 IP, 23 K’s, 20 BB, 44% GB, 7.97 ERA, 6.01 FIP at Low Class A State College.
d. Smarter people have said: On June 24th, Jim Shonerd over at Baseball America said “I’d let stay as a starter as long as I could, but if you made me make a prediction, I would say he does end up in the bullpen eventually.” He later made the not-so hot sheet on July 29th, with BA saying “there are major red flags that are going to take significant adjustments for the 20-year-old to right the ship.” Goldstein said of Allie that all the walks, hit batters and wild pitches are a “cause for plenty of concern.” Over at PiratesProspects.com, Williams argues that it’s too early to carve Stetson Allie’s career in stone.
e. Comments: Allie’s debut went a lot worse than Taillon’s went well, which is awful writing, but the point stands – he was pretty bad. His last three outings? 2.1 IP, 4 hits, 6 walks and 9 earned runs. He’s young enough to turn things around, but it’s tough not to take down expectations a peg or five. On the bright side, he has averaged over a strikeout per inning.
a. What BP called him: Five-star prospect.
b. What BP said:
“Taillon has the raw ability to be a true ace. His size is ideal, his arm action effortless, and his velocity nearly at the top of the scale as he sits in the mid-90s. One scout called his curveball, ‘the best single pitch in the draft’ due to its velocity and movement.”
c. How he’s pitched: 67.2 IP, 71 SO, 11 BB, 47% ground balls, 4.39 ERA, 3.67 FIP at Class A South Atlantic League.
d. Smarter people have said: Taillon was ranked as the 9th best prospect in baseball on July 7th by Baseball America and the 14th best prospect by Keith Law (clearly a hater). Law notes that he has a plus fastball and flashes a plus slider (no mention of the curveball from BP’s preseason write up) and that the Pirates have been very cautious with his workload. Kevin Goldstein commented on his strikeout to walk ratio, but mentioned that he has been “surprisingly hittable.” He had a .344 BABIP, so some of that may just be a little poor luck.
e. Comments: Taillon has remained healthy, racked up over a strikeout per inning, limited walks and demonstrated an ability to get groundballs. To me, that’s a very successful pro debut. It will be interesting to see how scouts believe he compares to Cole. Most organizations would be thrilled to have one guy with true ace potential in their system, but the Pirates have at least two.
*Is there a less helpful way to understand something in sports than to know what the pop culture equivalent of it is? That’s rhetorical.