What Can We Expect From Neil Walker?

One of the best Pittsburgh Pirates stories in the last few years has been the story of Neil Walker. A former first round pick, Walker struggled mightily in the minor leagues and had a lot of fans convinced that he would never be a good enough player to make it to the show. After a rough 2008 season where he hit .242/.280/.414 in AAA, he had this blogger believing he would never help the major league team.

However, in 2009, Walker had a big year in Indianapolis and earned a very short call-up in September. He continued to hit well in AAA during the 2010 season and was called up to the big leagues again, this time for good. In 110 games for the Pirates, he hit .296/.349/.462 with 12 home runs. He followed that season up with a .273/.344/.408 line with 12 more home runs in 159 games in 2011.

I don't think many people realized the step back Walker took at the plate last year. All of his numbers were pretty significantly worse. You could have kind of expected that since pitchers always adjust to young hitters, but I don't think anybody really thought he would regress that much. There is so much fanfare for Walker because he is a hometown kid, that people overlook the player that he actually is.

You aren't going to find anybody saying that Neil Walker can't be a major league second baseman, but I think he is widely overrated in Pittsburgh. Let's take a look at what we can expect from Walker going forward.

First of all, the kid is still young. He will be 26 years old for most of next season, so he still has room to improve. You certainly have to account for that when you're predicting his future.

That said, Bill James (a system that often gives younger players substantial statistics-boosts in their predictions) has Walker hitting .273/.332/.426 this year. That says that Walker's AVG and OBP will stay the same while his power improves, which makes sense. James gives Walker 15 home runs next year.

That makes sense to me, because Walker's BABIP was .315 last year, which is higher than the big league average, but not by much. You can't make any predictions that his average and on-base percentage will be any higher or lower based on that number, since it is so close to the league average (which is around .300). One good thing about Walker's 2011 season was that he cut his strikeouts a bit. He struck out 17.7% of the time in 2010 and 16.9% in 2011. That's not a huge improvement, but we won't complain about any kind of improvement.

Despite the statistical downgrade Walker experienced in 2011, his WAR (Wins Above Replacement) went up. He had a 2.0 WAR in 2010 and a 3.0 in 2011. The Pittsburgh kid improved greatly with the glove in 2011, going from a -17.1 UZR/150 in 2010 to a -2.5 UZR/150 in 2011. That probably accounts for a lot of the WAR improvement.

I think Walker's big rookie season in 2010 kind of made us lose perspective for the player that he actually is. The guy never hit for average in the minor leagues, so what made people believe he would come up to the majors and do it? His career average triple-slash line is .280/.338/.423 for all levels, and most of that time was spent in the minor leagues, so his major league average should be lower than that in my eyes. Also, Walker was forced to hit 4th or 5th in the order a lot last year, which isn't where his type of bat should be. Walker would be better served in the 6 or 7 spots in the order. I think the season that Bill James predicts for him is pretty accurate. A .273/.332/.426 line with solid defense is good enough for a major league second baseman. Walker isn't going to be making any all-star teams like some people think he can, but he should be good enough defensively with enough power in the bat to warrant the Pirates having him there for a good amount of time. That's not a sure thing though, his big league sample size is still relatively small, and I wouldn't be giving him a big extension until I see him stay competent for at least one more season.