The Pirates made a splash today by signing starting pitcher Erik Bedard. That took care of one of their two big needs this offseason. The other one has yet to be satisfied, and that is the need for a first baseman.
The deadline for Derrek Lee to accept or decline arbitration is tonight at midnight, and all signs point to him declining it. That doesn't mean that the Pirates still couldn't sign him, but I would highly doubt that they would sign him in free agency.
If the Pirates don't get Lee, there are other options. The best option (outside of Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols) is Carlos Pena. I have been screaming for the Pirates to get this guy since the trade deadline, and they have yet another chance right now. Pena declined arbitration from the Cubs today and will enter free agency. Another option is Josh Willingham, who is now a free agent after declining the Athletics' arbitration offer. Willingham is not nearly the power hitter that Pena is, but he is definitely a step up from what we have right now.
If the Pirates can sign Pena, there lineup is improved substantially. The Opening Day lineup would look something like: 1. Tabata 2. Presley 3. McCutchen 4. Pena 5. Walker 6. Alvarez 7. Barmes 8. Barajas 9. Pitcher, which is actually a pretty decent looking lineup if Alvarez hits the ball even a little bit. However, if the Pirates fail to sign a first baseman, you have to substitute Pena's name with Garrett Jones, Nick Evans, or Jake Fox. That makes the lineup a lot worse.
Right now, the pitching staff looks like it could keep the Pirates competitive. It's going to be something like Bedard - McDonald - Morton - Karstens - Correia with Lincoln possibly in there instead of Karstens or Correia. Again, that's a pretty solid top 3 if they are all going well.
However, if the Pirates don't make a move and get a bat to play first base, we could be seeing a repeat of last year, with the pitching staff playing well enough to keep the team somewhat competitive, but the lackluster offense holding the team back. Huntington and company have done a pretty nice job this offseason so far, but signing a Carlos Pena would put them over the top.
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