It All Comes Down to Alvarez

These last few weeks of the offseason have been pretty wild. The peak of the wildness came Monday night when the Pirates traded Jose Veras for Casey McGehee (you can read my take on that trade here). Now that the dust has settled from that one, a formerly known point has become even stronger.

No single party has a bigger hand in the success or failure of the 2012 Pittsburgh Pirates than Pedro Alvarez.

The Pirates haven't had a legitimate power bat in their lineup since Jason Bay hit 35 home runs in 2006. After his departure, the Pirates were basically powerless outside of Garrett Jones first few months in the big leagues in 2009 and the brilliant two months that Derrek Lee had last season. That's the main reason they drafted Alvarez, who didn't disappoint upon his arrival in 2010 with 16 home runs in 95 games. That led to big expectations for him in 2011, which he promptly took all the air out of with a dismal season that saw him slug .289, truly depressing.

Now, no one is ready to give up on Alvarez yet, especially the smarter fans. Those fans realize that Alvarez holds the key to the Pirates success in the near future. This team has some talented young hitters with good gloves and speed, but they don't have anyone who is a real threat to put a big number up on the board in a hurry besides Alvarez. If he doesn't hit, this offense is going to be held back significantly.

The addition of McGehee helps the 2012 team. Alvarez will, in all likelihood, start the year as the starting third baseman, and McGehee will play first. If Alvarez bounces back, that's not a bad corner infield situation. However, if he doesn't hit and has to be sent back to the minor leagues, McGehee has to shift over to third base and Garrett Jones comes back into the picture to start at first. Sure, Jones has his streaks, but most of the time he's not a very good hitter. Last year he hit .243/.321/.433, which is not what I want from a starting first baseman.

Let's look at the best and worst possible scenarios. Let's start with the best. If Alvarez and McGehee hold their spots at the corners and play to their potential, we'll have something like .250/.340/.500 from Alvarez and .285/.330/.460 from McGehee, which would be the best season the Pirates have seen from their corners in a long time. However, if Alvarez and McGehee repeat last year's seasons, the Pirates will have something like .220/.280/.350 from McGehee and .200/.270/.300 from Alvarez. That's ugly, and there's very little chance the Pirates could win much at all with numbers like that from the corners.

There's a good chance McGehee will bounce back from his horrid 2011 season, I don't see him getting back to the 2010 version of himself, but I do see him being good enough to be a starter all year for this team. I can't say I'm very confident in Alvarez. It's a big question mark, but if the Pirates finally get a break and Alvarez turns it around and starts to reach his potential, this could be a pretty solid offense.

It's never very soothing to have a guy who hit .191/.272/.289 the season before be the biggest key for your offense the following year, but that's the situation the Pirates are in right now. In years past, the Pirates never really had a chance to win, but that doesn't seem to be true anymore. If Alvarez turns it around, the Pirates have a pretty decent shot at making some noise in the division.

Stay positive, Pittsburgh.