All the signs are pointing towards a solid 2012 season for Bedard. He has recovered from his surgeries and has been focusing in hard on bouncing back this year and becoming relevant once again. I'm not doubting at all that he can do it, however there is something that we haven't really talked about this spring that is a bit alarming.
Last year Bedard's average fastball came in at 90.4 miles per hour. That's a little ways down from the 92.1 he was throwing in 2007 before injuries started hurting his career. Despite the mediocre fastball velocity, Erik was able to post a 3.62 ERA with 8.7 K/9. That's a testament to how good of a pure pitcher he is. It's still early to say anything for sure, but it appears that Bedard has lost even more velocity over the offseason. He has been hitting the gun between 87-90 this spring. There's no data out there but I would guess his average heater is coming in around 88 miles per hour. That's a little bit frightening.
Again, Bedard doesn't need to throw 92-93 to be affective in the big leagues, however you don't se many successful pitchers throwing 88 mile an hour four-seamers. It didn't hurt his case last night, striking out 5 Orioles in 6 innings and getting a ton of weak contact, but I don't see how he can repeat his strikeout numbers from the previous years without a fastball in the 90's.
This could all be just a spring training thing, and we could very well see his velocity get back to 90-91 on Opening Day. I initially suspected that Bradenton's radar gun may just be a bit slow, but I went back and watched his start against the Yankees in their stadium to find the same readings.
I'd be lying if I told you the decreased velocity on Bedard's fastball isn't concerning me a little bit. The ultimate goal for him is to stay healthy, and I'm sure he's been taking it a little easy this spring to make sure he gets to Opening Day ready to go. There's a good chance that this will be non-issue when the season begins, but for now it's something to keep an eye on.