In 13 Grapefruit League innings, Jeff Karstens has nine strikeouts. That's 6.2 strikeouts per nine inning. That's a whole strikeout better than last year. Now that is meaningless. A sample of 13 innings literally tells you nothing. Let me tell you this. Karstens made a start against the Blue Jays AAA team yesterday and struck out ten batters in 7.1 innings. It was against a minor league team, yes, he absolutely should dominate a minor league lineup. However, ten strikeouts is still impressive for a guy like Karstens.
I don't think the above statements mean Karstens is going to strike more batters out this year. That said, I wouldn't be surprised if it happens.
The biggest thing that stops Karstens from getting a lot of strikeouts is his approach. He throws strikes to get soft contact and be efficient and last year he was very good at doing that. The success that he had last year should breed more confidence. I think that more confidence in himself and in his pitches should lead to a few more whiffs this year. Last year he didn't know he was a big league starter, he came in early in the year to fill a gap and never gave the job up. He was lucky, that's undoubtably true, but he was also very good for most of the year.
Karstens has a job locked down this year. That has to be a shot in the arm for the guy. He knows he has to perform to keep the job, and he should continue to grow in confidence as he has success. I think that will lead to more strikeouts. He doesn't have electrifying stuff; he is far from being that kind of pitcher. However, he does know how to locate and he has a good slow curveball, which I think he'll have more confidence to use in strikeout situations this year.
Again, this is kind of just a blind prediction, but I think we're going to see a Jeff Karstens that knows what he has to do to be successful this year, and I think it will lead to some more strikeouts. You heard it here first, maybe.