The Power Bat of Andrew McCutchen?

Andrew McCutchen is a super star in the making, everyone around the league knows that. He is nearly the definition of a 5-tool player and his ceiling seems limitless. However, he seems to have changed a little bit at he plate this year. Let's take a look at some numbers.

McCutchen was called up in early June of 2009, and played 108 games for the Pirates that summer. He hit .286/.365/.471 with 12 home runs, 9 triples, 26 doubles, and 77 singles.

In 2010, his first full season, Cutch hit .286/.365/.449 with 16 home runs, 5 triples, 35 doubles, and 107 singles.

It's pretty amazing to me that McCutchen hit for the exact same batting average and on-base percentage in his first two seasons, but regardless of that, it was pretty evident that McCutchen was a guy that was going to hit for a good batting average with a moderate amount of power. Everyone was more than happy with the 15-20 home run per season power as long as he hit above .280, stole a bunch of bases and played defense as well as he could. However, 2011 has been a different story.

So far in 2011, the Pirates center fielder has hit .269/.372/.473 with 22 home runs, 4 triples, 31 doubles, and 80 singles. The average is significantly lower than what we have seen from him in his first two years. However, the on-base and slugging numbers are up.

One reason for that is probably the position McCutchen has been hitting in the lineup. He has started 137 games this year. In 64 of those starts, McCutchen was hitting 3rd in the lineup, and in 27 of them he was hitting clean up. That leaves him with 46 games where he led off. So 91 starts from a power spot against 27 from a speed/batting average spot. Compare that to 2010, when McCutchen led off in 82 games and hit 3rd in 53 games. He also hit 2nd in 17 games, so there was much less need for him to hit for power hitting at the top of the order so much.

I'm not buying that that's the only reason however. I'm not confident in saying this, but with the lack of power that Pedro Alvarez gave the Pirates this year, I think McCutchen might have taken it upon himself to hit the ball over the fence a little more often. There's a distinct difference in a home run swing compared to a contact swing, and when a hitter starts focusing more on hitting for power, he is going to lose batting average points almost every time. Only McCutchen himself could tell you if his approach at the plate is different in general this year than in years past, but I believe it has.

Scouts have always said that McCutchen has power upside, but nobody was predicting this guy to come up and hit 30+ home runs a year. He isn't going to get there this year, but the power he has shown this year has been quite impressive. McCutchen absolutely belted a pair of bombs Wednesday night and has really showcased the power in his bat this season. It hasn't come without a cost though, as his batting average is going to be nearly 20 points under his career average.

With Jose Tabata and Alex Presley showing very good ability to get on base and put the pressure on running the bases, this change in McCutchen's approach could be perfect for this Pirates lineup in coming years. They need someone who can hit home runs, there's really no one in the system other than Alvarez with that ability, so they need all the power they can get, and McCutchen has shown us that he can really help in that category.

Unless the Pirates resign a Derrek Lee or Ryan Ludwick, or go out and sign a power bat in the offseason, it's going to be a race between McCutchen and Alvarez for who leads the team in home runs next year. With Alvarez's constant struggle in 2010, and the fact that he is going to be granted another option, he could very well spend a lot of time in the minors next year, so McCutchen will probably be the biggest power bat in the lineup for most of the year. That's kind of sad to say, but what we have seen this year is encouraging, and I wouldn't be shocked to see him hit 30 bombs in 2012.