The Arizona Diamondbacks Model

Last year, the Pittsburgh Pirates and Arizona Diamondbacks had too much in common. Both teams finished last in their division and gave people very little hope for more success in 2011.

At the halfway point, both of these teams were right in the heat of their division races and were the Cinderella stories of baseball. However, three months later they have taken quite different paths.

Here's the all-star break records:

Pirates: 47-43
D-Backs: 49-43

And here are their current records:

Pirates: 68-85
D-Backs: 88-64

So that means that Pirates have 19 wins and the Diamondbacks have 39 wins since the midsummer classic. While this second has been extremely discouraging for Pirates fans, the fact that the Diamondbacks have been able to maintain their success is encouraging. Here's why:

Arizona's 2011 payroll is $53.6 million, which is the 6th lowest in the league (The Pirates are 3rd lowest with a payroll of $45 million). Despite that, they have built a strong young team that has proven that it can compete with the rest of the league.

Justin Upton, Chris Young, and Stephen Drew are really the only players that the Diamondbacks have money invested in. Upton is owed $4.25 million this year, $6.75 million in 2012, $9.75 million in 2013, $14.25 million in 2014, and $14.5 million in 2015. That's a hefty contract, but he has proved to be worth the money.

Young is owed $5 million this year, $7 million next year, and $8.5 million in 2013, with a $1.5 million option in 2014. Drew is making $4.65 million this year and $7.75 million next year with a $1.35 million option in 2013.

Outside of those three, the Diamondbacks have a lot of financial leeway with their current roster.

Upton is the only established star on this ball club, much like Andrew McCutchen is in Pittsburgh. The Diamondbacks are going to have to build around him if they want to be competitive in the long-term.

Over the last few years, the Diamondbacks' farm system has been far from impressive. They were perennial ranked in the middle of the pack or near the bottom. However, they have done a pretty good job turning it around recently. This article from AZ Snake Pit claims that the D-Backs have a top-5 system in the league. I'm not sure if I would go that far, but they certainly have some strong prospects as mentioned in that article.

Let's get our focus back to the present. The Diamondbacks are in the driver's seat in the NL West. They are 5 games ahead of the Giants and have a 98% chance of making the playoffs. The question is, how have they done it?

As is true in most of these stories, the Diamondbacks have been getting it done with pitching. Ian Kennedy, who the Pirates will face tonight, has been one of the best pitchers in the National League. He has only 4 losses to go along with his 19 wins and a 2.99 ERA to boot. Daniel Hudson, Joe Saunders, and Josh Collmenter have also been terrific. The highest ERA of those three belongs to Saunders, who has a 3.66 mark. None of them walk batters often and they all get their strikeouts when they need them. J.J. Putz, David Hernandez, and Joe Paterson have done a great job collectively out of the bullpen.

On the offensive side of the ball, Upton has been carrying the team. He has a triple-slash line of .293/.374/.537 with 30 home runs and 86 RBI. His 6.8 WAR leads the team and is one of the better numbers in the league. Arizona has also gotten good contributions from Miguel Montero (.281/.352/.470) and Gerardo Parra (.296/.358/.438) with the sticks. Young has 20 home runs despite a .232/.325 AVG/OBP.

The story with the Diamondbacks this year has been pitching, as was the story with the Pirates for the first three months. Arizona is going to need some more bats in their lineup to compete for more than this year, but help is on the way through their farm system.

This is just another example that points to the fact that the Pirates need more pitching to be competitive. I'm not buying that next year's rotation of McDonald - Morton - Karstens - Correia - Lincoln/Ohlendorf is good enough to come anywhere near a division title with. The good news is that the Pirates have arms like Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon in the system now that give us hope down the road.

I don't see any way this Pirates team can win a division title until one or both of those arms is in the rotation and dominating. There is the possibility that Pedro Alvarez figures it out and starts mashing the ball while McCutchen continues to get even better and move his way up the list of best players in the league. The Pirates should get solid contributions from Jose Tabata and Neil Walker next year, but without a good pitching staff, it's not going to be enough.

As for right now, I am rooting hard for the Arizona Diamondbacks to win another championship in 2011.