The Pirates have certainly fallen a long way since late July when they were in first place. Let's take a look at the ugliness that has been the last 43 games for our Pirates. The image is small, so click on it for a bigger view.
In these last 43 games, the Pirates have 12 wins and 31 losses. They have won consecutive games just twice, and have not accumulated so much as a 3-game winning streak.
The ERA for the starting pitchers is 5.33, although that includes starts from guys that aren't big league pitchers like Brian Burres, Aaron Thompson, Brad Lincoln, Ross Ohlendorf, and Jeff Locke. Now Thompson did a great job in his 4.1 innings, Locke only gave up 3 runs in his 5 innings, and Lincoln has done a good job for the most part. Burres had a good start and a bad one, and Ohlendorf has been pretty miserable in all his outings.
The team ERA for the first half was 3.68, which was pretty much the sole reason that the team was in the race. It has bloated quite a bit and the offense has not shown the improvement we expected, which has caused the Pirates to be well, the Pirates, once again.
The Pirates are scoring just 3.6 runs per game in this stretch of 43 games while the starters alone are allowing 3.3 (when you add the bullpen in the difference is expanded). Strikeouts have also been hard to come by as the starters are striking out just 3.5 batters per outing (without 2nd Half MVP James McDonald, that number would be significantly smaller).
Looking at the season as a whole, here are the Pirates numbers:
Batting:
BA: .243
H/G: 8.1
R/G: 3.7
K/G: 8.0
BB/G: 3.0
Starters:
IP/G: 5.8
H/G: 6.2
R/G: 2.9
ER/G: 2.6
BB/G: 1.9
K/G: 3.6
HR/G: 0.6
ERA: 4.08
Overall I will take the most of the starting pitchers numbers. If this team had an average offense, those pitching numbers would be good enough to be flirting with .500 and possibly with some luck be somewhat competitive in the division.
The hitting has been terrible all year and things don't look that much better for next year either. Andrew McCutchen should be a force once again and continue to get better, and I'm starting to become pretty confident that Jose Tabata will be a legitimate big league hitter for a long time, but there's really not much else there to be optimistic about. Neil Walker and Garrett Jones have been inconsistent, Pedro Alvarez looks like a AA player, and there is no way in my mind that Derrek Lee and Ryan Ludwick return next year. The Pirates are going to have to get some bats in free agency if they want to look significantly better next year than this year, and unless they do it, they once again have very little chance of competing for 6 months.
The starters also worry me. Paul Maholm and Kevin Correia had good first halves but I don't think they can be anything more than 4 starters in the big leagues. The upside comes with Charlie Morton and McDonald, they will be the best two pitchers on this team next year. The 5th spot looks to be up in the air with competition forming between Ohlendorf and Lincoln, and maybe even a Locke.
It's too early to talk too extensively about 2012, but it always feels good to look forward to when the Pirates will be 0-0 once again and have hope.