Why The Pirates Shouldn't Spend On Relief

There has been a lot of talk in the recent weeks about what the Pirates will do at the trade deadline. The speculation is that the team will be buyers. Obviously the biggest cry is to bring in a first baseman or right fielder. Calls for help at third or catcher have trickled in to, but recently something new has been thrown in there. Fans are calling for the Pirates to trade for a relief pitcher. A RELIEF PITCHER. I'm not going to say that I think this is RIDICULOUS, but I certainly don't agree with it. Here's why.

First of all, let me say that if the price is right, I'm okay with anything. You certainly can't hurt the team by bringing in another bullpen arm, but I just don't think it's a need that is big enough to justify parting with much of anything.

I guess I should also note that I'm not exactly on track with the huge belief that the Pirates need to make moves this trade deadline. There's no doubt that the Pirates probably need upgrades more than any of the teams they are competing with, and they still have quite a ways to go before I say this team is good enough to compete in the playoffs, but it just seems ridiculous that everyone is pushing so hard to bring in guys like Hunter Pence, Carlos Pena, Carlos Beltran, etc. In my mind the sole goal should still not be making the playoffs this year, the ultimate goal is to be set up to be competitive every year for an extended period of time, and giving up prospects for 2-month rentals isn't the way to do that. That's a different article though, let's get back on track.

The Pirates bullpen has been good this year. Joel Hanrahan is the main reason why it has been so good, nobody is worried about the 9th inning anymore, it's the 7th and 8th that the fans are scared of. The 2nd and 3rd best guys in the bullpen right now are Chris Resop and Jose Veras. Also, Evan Meek is on his way back, but isn't really a guy you can have too much faith in because of his injury issues and lost velocity this year. This really all boils down to the fans not having much confidence in Resop and Veras, which I don't necessarily fully agree with. Let's go.

Jose Veras has been the main culprit. He blew a lead in Saturday's game with the Astros, and that fueled these talks quite a bit. Here's Veras' 2011 season:

42.1 IP, 3.19 ERA, 1.134 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9, 9.4 K/9, .187 BAA

Those numbers aren't bad at all. The walks are alarming, and that is what has got him into the trouble that he's been in a few times in big situations, but the volume of his work has helped the team quite a bit. The one thing you can say against him is that he's been significantly worse in bigger situations this year. In high leverage situations, he has a .246 BAA and has allowed 12 runs in 69 at bats. That's really not that bad, but when you compare it his numbers in medium and low-leverage situations it looks worse.

So is there something to Veras struggling in big situations? I don't know. I'd like to think there isn't, and it's just been random bad luck. He does seem to be a pitcher that lets his mental state affect the way he pitches, but nobody can say that for sure. In most cases, the leverage doesn't make a difference, it's all pretty random and a good pitcher will be good in all situations, and a bad pitcher will a bad pitcher in all situations, etc. Again, that's tough to say for sure, but that's how I look at it at least. I can say one thing for sure, Jose Veras is a good pitcher.

Veras is a big strikeout guy, which you need in the 8th inning, and he seems to bounce back well from rough outings. He takes way more heat than he deserves, which happens with relievers, it's the biggest "what have you done for me lately" position in the game. Looking at his volume of work, I'd say he's easily good enough to be the 8th inning guy for the Pirates. You can't forget either that if Evan Meek gets anywhere near back to his 2010 form, Veras will be the 7th inning guy, which nobody should argue with.

Chris Resop was great for the Pirates last year, and he's been pretty good for them again this year. His line:

42.1 IP, 3.40 ERA, 1.228 WHIP, 4.8 BB/9, 8.5 K/9

Again, more solid numbers. The walks are high and so are the strikeouts, so he is much like Veras. The difference is Resop hasn't been in as many big situations, so he hasn't had the chance to be scrutinized as much. He has a .222 BAA this year, so he's been worse than Veras in that standpoint, but still very good. He has also been worse in high leverage situations, surrendering a .275 BAA in them against a .176 BAA in low leverage situations.

I guess much of my argument here revolves around if you believe that stats in high-leverage situations are predictive. If you think that Veras has a better chance of blowing a lead in a big situation cause he has struggled in those situations earlier in the year, then you aren't wrong for wanting the Pirates to bring in someone else. I just don't buy that. Jose Veras is still Jose Veras with 2 guys on and a 1-run lead, he throws the same pitches, nothing changes. Again, debatable point, but that's how I believe it.

I've rambled a lot, but my big point is is that I think Veras, Resop, and Meek are good enough for the Pirates this year. Is it the best bullpen in the league? No, but it's good enough to get this team into the playoffs if the starting pitching and offense are. Whether those two things are good enough is a different argument, but I'm not worried about the bullpen.

I will say once again that if the Pirates can get a bullpen guy and just lose some cash, I'm certainly supportive of it. I just don't want to see the Pirates lose much at all getting a guy. They have much bigger holes at first base and right field to worry about getting a reliever.