The Pirates declined Ronny Cedeno's option today, which has generated some serious buzz among Pirate fans. It has especially interested me, because I am in serious opposition to the decision. I believe that bringing Cedeno back for another year for $3 million made all the sense in the world. Some people have been asking me why, so I'll tell you.
First, let's take a look at Cedeno himself. Here are his career offensive and defensive numbers:
Offense:
7 seasons: .246 AVG, .286 OBP, .353 SLG, .277 wOBA
As a Pirate: .254 AVG, .297 OBP, .367 SLG
Defense:
7 seasons @ SS: -5.1 UZR, -1.6 UZR/150
2011 @ SS: 5.9 UZR, 6.8 UZR/150
Value:
7 seasons: 1.1 WAR, -15.7 Batting Runs Above Average, 6.1 Fielding Runs Above Average
So all that tells us is that Cedeno is not a good hitter, but not the worst. His defense hasn't always been good in his career either, but he had a very nice season last year with the glove and has been far better than any other defensive player the Pirates have had in their middle infield in quite some time. All of that said, he's not that great of a player, and to the naked eye, seems pretty easily replaceable.
HOWEVER, shortstop is not an easy position to replace, and the Pirates have very few other legitimate options in their system. The two that come to mind right away are Chase d'Arnaud and Pedro Ciriaco. We're going to take a look at them, but be sure not to forget that these numbers are based on small sample sizes and both players have a lot of room to improve.
Chase d'Arnaud:
Offense:
2011: .217 AVG, .242 OBP, .287 SLG, .247 wOBA
Minors (career): .270 AVG, .352 OBP, .410 SLG
Defense:
2011 @ SS: -5.8 UZR, -35.6 UZR/150
Value:
2011: -0.2 WAR, -8.1 Batting Runs Above Average, -2.3 Fielding Runs Above Average
You really have to realize that those numbers do not mean all that much for d'Arnaud's future. He has played just 48 major league games, which you can tell next to nothing from. However, he did not look like a major league player whatsoever in those 48 games, which adds to my confusion when I wonder why the Pirates would be okay with him as their primary shortstop for an entire season. He could develop and turn into a good player, but there is still the huge risk that he'll play that bad all year long and hurt the team significantly.
Ciriaco has even less numbers than d'Arnaud to consider, so I'm not even going to write them down. The story with him is pretty clear, he is a very good defender, probably better than Cedeno right now with upside to be much better, but he cannot hit at the major league level. No one is expecting him to develop much with the bat either, he hit .231/.243/.300 at AAA in 2011 (he does however have a .270/.297/.352 career minor league triple-slash line, but his make-up kind of overshadows that).
Basically, there is a ton of unknowns in this situation. We do not know how d'Arnaud will develop. If I had to pick d'Arnaud or Cedeno to be the Pirates shortstop in 3 years, I would take d'Arnaud, but for right now, he raises to many question marks for me to justify starting him at the major league level without a competent replacement like Cedeno.
Ciriaco should also be in the shuffle. For some reason that I can't understand, fans actually like the guy. The defense will be good, but I don't expect him to hit anything more than .240 with no power.
Cedeno is not a great player, he's hardly even a good player, but at least you know what you have in him. He'll hit around .250, give you a small amount of power, and will have some hot streaks all while playing above average defense, which is very valuable in today's MLB. You can't say anything for sure with d'Arnaud or Ciriaco, and chances are they will play much worse than Cedeno would in 2012.
Three million dollars isn't that much to spend on Cedeno, especially when you consider the $25+ million the Pirates are saving by declining the options of Paul Maholm and Ryan Doumit.
It is a long offseason, and there are some other free agent names that could fill Cedeno's spot for less money (and probably play better), but if they do not get one of them, it's going to be an ugly season at shortstop for the Pirates. The offseason is just beginning, and all of this could be irrelevant very quickly, but for right now, I have no idea what the Pirates are doing.
E6 - Pirates Decline Cedeno's Option
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Unbelievable.
Everyone expected the Pirates to pass on the options of Paul Maholm and Ryan Doumit, but now the news comes out that they have also passed on Ronny Cedeno and will let him test free agency.
This one is just mind boggling. Sure, Cedeno is by no means a great shortstop, he's not even that good of a player, however, when you look at the Pirates situation, it makes all the sense in the world to bring him back.
Cedeno looks like an all-star when you compare him to Chase d'Arnaud and Pedro Ciriaco, who are the next best options in the system right now, and Cedeno would have only cost the Pirates $3 million for next year.
The improvement that Cedeno gives you over d'Arnaud and Ciriaco is EASILY worth $3 million, there is no arguing that. I understand he isn't the guy for the future, but right now it makes absolutely no sense to not bring him back.
Maybe management has plans at bringing someone in from the outside, but that seems unlikely to me. We'll have to see how it all plays out, but things aren't looking great for the 2012 Pittsburgh Pirates right now.
Much more to come on this and other subjects later.
Everyone expected the Pirates to pass on the options of Paul Maholm and Ryan Doumit, but now the news comes out that they have also passed on Ronny Cedeno and will let him test free agency.
This one is just mind boggling. Sure, Cedeno is by no means a great shortstop, he's not even that good of a player, however, when you look at the Pirates situation, it makes all the sense in the world to bring him back.
Cedeno looks like an all-star when you compare him to Chase d'Arnaud and Pedro Ciriaco, who are the next best options in the system right now, and Cedeno would have only cost the Pirates $3 million for next year.
The improvement that Cedeno gives you over d'Arnaud and Ciriaco is EASILY worth $3 million, there is no arguing that. I understand he isn't the guy for the future, but right now it makes absolutely no sense to not bring him back.
Maybe management has plans at bringing someone in from the outside, but that seems unlikely to me. We'll have to see how it all plays out, but things aren't looking great for the 2012 Pittsburgh Pirates right now.
Much more to come on this and other subjects later.
Steelers Advanced Statistics October 30
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Here are the advanced statistics for yesterday's Steeler game. Image courtesy of Advanced NFL Stats.
Ben Roethlisberger, Mike Wallace, and Heath Miller all had huge games for the Steelers, but the running game really didn't help much. As a unit, the runners hurt the team's chance of winning the football game.
Steelers Advanced Stats - Week 7
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Steelers got another big win this week over Arizona, and played one of their best games of the year. Here's your weekly update on the advanced statistic for the contest.
Tim Tebow's Sabermetric Performance
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Tim Tebow made his first start of 2011 today, and he did just as he has always done, he won.
That's all everyone has been saying. Tebow start and won, and therefore he is a legitimate NFL quarterback. The smarter NFL fans/analysts probably aren't taking it that far, but the majority of the talk has been extremely positive. Let's take a look at that.
First of all, Tebow beat the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to win a game this year. They are allowing 257.5 yards a game through the air, Tebow threw for 161 yards. That in and of itself doesn't really mean anything. I am not a football stat expert, but there's no way that yards tells the story of how a quarterback played well enough to use in an intelligent discussion. I can say that completing 13 of 27 passes is not very good, and neither is taking 7 sacks (although his 65 yards rushing may justify some of those). None of this really tells you the story, so let's look at the advanced stats.
Tebow's Win Probability Added (WPA) today was -0.03, which means he actually hurt the Broncos chances of winning. For a full explanation of what WPA in football is, visit this page, which is from the site that I get all these statistics from. I highly recommend reading that article, and the rest of the stuff on that site, it's life changing, and that's an extreme exaggeration.
Another useful advanced statistic is Estimated Points Added (EPA); you can find the explanation for that one here. Tebow's EPA today was 2.1, which is not good. He added only 2 points to his team's performance today, which would be awesome for an offensive lineman, but not for a quarterback.
The final statistics I'm going to use his Success Rate (SR%), which is simply the percentage of plays that Tebow made (or attempted to make) that were successful. This one comes with a little bit of opinion, but still offers a good picture of how he played. The percentage for Tebow's day was 34.8%, another unimpressive number.
For comparison purposes, let's look at Ben Roethlisberger's stats for today. Ben played very well and earned a 0.59 WPA, a 23.0 EPA, and a 56.8 SR%. That gives you an idea of how poorly Tebow played.
At the end of the day, all that matters is if your team won or lost, and the fact that Tebow is 1-0 on the year as a starting quarterback will keep the positive talk coming. However, Tebow's performance today doesn't show many good signs for the rest of 2011 for him and the Broncos.
That's all everyone has been saying. Tebow start and won, and therefore he is a legitimate NFL quarterback. The smarter NFL fans/analysts probably aren't taking it that far, but the majority of the talk has been extremely positive. Let's take a look at that.
First of all, Tebow beat the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to win a game this year. They are allowing 257.5 yards a game through the air, Tebow threw for 161 yards. That in and of itself doesn't really mean anything. I am not a football stat expert, but there's no way that yards tells the story of how a quarterback played well enough to use in an intelligent discussion. I can say that completing 13 of 27 passes is not very good, and neither is taking 7 sacks (although his 65 yards rushing may justify some of those). None of this really tells you the story, so let's look at the advanced stats.
Tebow's Win Probability Added (WPA) today was -0.03, which means he actually hurt the Broncos chances of winning. For a full explanation of what WPA in football is, visit this page, which is from the site that I get all these statistics from. I highly recommend reading that article, and the rest of the stuff on that site, it's life changing, and that's an extreme exaggeration.
Another useful advanced statistic is Estimated Points Added (EPA); you can find the explanation for that one here. Tebow's EPA today was 2.1, which is not good. He added only 2 points to his team's performance today, which would be awesome for an offensive lineman, but not for a quarterback.
The final statistics I'm going to use his Success Rate (SR%), which is simply the percentage of plays that Tebow made (or attempted to make) that were successful. This one comes with a little bit of opinion, but still offers a good picture of how he played. The percentage for Tebow's day was 34.8%, another unimpressive number.
For comparison purposes, let's look at Ben Roethlisberger's stats for today. Ben played very well and earned a 0.59 WPA, a 23.0 EPA, and a 56.8 SR%. That gives you an idea of how poorly Tebow played.
At the end of the day, all that matters is if your team won or lost, and the fact that Tebow is 1-0 on the year as a starting quarterback will keep the positive talk coming. However, Tebow's performance today doesn't show many good signs for the rest of 2011 for him and the Broncos.
5 Positives from Pirates 2011 Season
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Pirates coverage from iSportsWeb giving five positives from the Pirates 2011 season. You can definitely tell it was not written by a Pirates expert, but it's always fun to read good things about our buccos, so check it out.
Ryan Doumit vs. Michael McKenry
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Ryan Doumit is a hot topic this Pirates offseason. There is very little doubt in my mind that Doumit has played his last game with the Pirates, but that is not going to stop me from talking about him.
I have had the argument of Doumit vs. Michael McKenry a few times. Lots of fans say they would rather have McKenry on the team because of his defensive ability (and the lack of Doumit's). These fans claim that McKenry saves more runs with his glove than Doumit does, which is absolutely true. These fans also claim that the starting pitchers are better with The Fort behind the plate, which is absolutely false. Let's deal with that belief first.
Everything I am about to say comes from a chapter in the book "Baseball Between the Numbers", written by the guys at Baseball Prospectus. It's probably the best book I have ever read and everyone who likes baseball needs to check it out.
Anyways, the writers of the book wanted to find out if catchers really do have an impact on the success of the pitchers they work with. The answer they found was a resounding no. Here are some quotes from the chapter in the book.
So now, you have absolutely no reason to say that McKenry made the Pirates pitchers any better. Sure, the pitching staff was better with him being the plate this year, but that was just a coincidence.
There is certainly something to be said for the defensive difference between McKenry and Doumit. The saber metrics show this. In the short time he played in 2011, McKenry had a fielding value rating of 0.0 (in runs above average), which means he was right at the replacement level, which is probably much worse than you would have thought, but again the sample size was too small to really get a feel for it. Doumit on the other hand had one of his best defensive seasons and posted a -1.0, however that might have been fluky when you see the -15.5 he posted in 2010. Neither of these guys are great defensive catchers, but McKenry can hold his own and is and easy choice over Doumit, who is atrocious.
However, the defensive advantage that McKenry has over Doumit is completely wiped out when you look what these two do with the bats.
McKenry hit .222/.276/.322 this year (in just 201 plate appearances), while Doumit hit .303/.353/.477 (in 236 plate appearances). You cannot tell me that McKenry saved more runs with his glove than Doumit added with his bat, that would be one-hundred percent false. Doumit might not flirt with a .300 average or a .475 slugging every year, but he will never hit anywhere near what McKenry did in his time in 2011.
The only argument you can make for having McKenry over Doumit would be the injury thing. Doumit cannot stay healthy, that is a fact. He has only played over 90 games twice in his 7-year career, which really does nothing to help the team. We don't know much about McKenry, but he seems like a pretty tough kid who wouldn't miss many games. However, McKenry is no better than the player than a triple-A replacement, which would be exactly who you would call up when Doumit inevitably gets injured again.
The argument of taking McKenry over Doumit is ridiculous to me, and now you know why. Unfortunately, the Pirates are not going to have Doumit's bat in the lineup again next year, and they are going to have to put up with a full season of replacement-level catchers. We'll see how that works out, and I will not be surprised when I hear people complaining about how they miss Doumit next year.
I have had the argument of Doumit vs. Michael McKenry a few times. Lots of fans say they would rather have McKenry on the team because of his defensive ability (and the lack of Doumit's). These fans claim that McKenry saves more runs with his glove than Doumit does, which is absolutely true. These fans also claim that the starting pitchers are better with The Fort behind the plate, which is absolutely false. Let's deal with that belief first.
Everything I am about to say comes from a chapter in the book "Baseball Between the Numbers", written by the guys at Baseball Prospectus. It's probably the best book I have ever read and everyone who likes baseball needs to check it out.
Anyways, the writers of the book wanted to find out if catchers really do have an impact on the success of the pitchers they work with. The answer they found was a resounding no. Here are some quotes from the chapter in the book.
| ... a study looked at every qualifying pitcher-catcher battery over a seventeen-year span and compared how the pitcher did with the given catcher, versus all other catchers on the team. Diving even deeper than just analyzing runs given up, the study looked at every plate appearance, examining these pacific number of hits, walks, and extra-base hits given up. This is akin to looking at pitcher's batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging average allowed and seeing if they varied according to who was catching at the time. They did vary, but randomly. There was no trend of catchers who performed well in one year performing well again the next year. |
| ... several follow up studies were done, both at Baseball Prospectus and elsewhere, in an effort to find proof that some catchers have a portable pitcher-handling skill--that some, by their mere presence, improve a pitching staff. No statistical evidence for a significant pitcher-handling or game-calling ability--such as would reduce the number of runs the opposition puts on the scoreboard--has been found. |
So now, you have absolutely no reason to say that McKenry made the Pirates pitchers any better. Sure, the pitching staff was better with him being the plate this year, but that was just a coincidence.
There is certainly something to be said for the defensive difference between McKenry and Doumit. The saber metrics show this. In the short time he played in 2011, McKenry had a fielding value rating of 0.0 (in runs above average), which means he was right at the replacement level, which is probably much worse than you would have thought, but again the sample size was too small to really get a feel for it. Doumit on the other hand had one of his best defensive seasons and posted a -1.0, however that might have been fluky when you see the -15.5 he posted in 2010. Neither of these guys are great defensive catchers, but McKenry can hold his own and is and easy choice over Doumit, who is atrocious.
However, the defensive advantage that McKenry has over Doumit is completely wiped out when you look what these two do with the bats.
McKenry hit .222/.276/.322 this year (in just 201 plate appearances), while Doumit hit .303/.353/.477 (in 236 plate appearances). You cannot tell me that McKenry saved more runs with his glove than Doumit added with his bat, that would be one-hundred percent false. Doumit might not flirt with a .300 average or a .475 slugging every year, but he will never hit anywhere near what McKenry did in his time in 2011.
The only argument you can make for having McKenry over Doumit would be the injury thing. Doumit cannot stay healthy, that is a fact. He has only played over 90 games twice in his 7-year career, which really does nothing to help the team. We don't know much about McKenry, but he seems like a pretty tough kid who wouldn't miss many games. However, McKenry is no better than the player than a triple-A replacement, which would be exactly who you would call up when Doumit inevitably gets injured again.
The argument of taking McKenry over Doumit is ridiculous to me, and now you know why. Unfortunately, the Pirates are not going to have Doumit's bat in the lineup again next year, and they are going to have to put up with a full season of replacement-level catchers. We'll see how that works out, and I will not be surprised when I hear people complaining about how they miss Doumit next year.
Wanted: Graphics Design
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I am thinking about changing the appearance of the site a little bit or a lot this offseason, not really sure where I want to go with it though. What I do know is that I need some new graphics/logos. Unfortunately I have not the ability nor the software to do such things; hence this post.
If you are experienced with Photoshop or any other graphics design program and would like to help me out by making some logos, banners, or t-shirt designs, please e-mail me at jon2anderson@comcast.net or tweet me @McEffect.
I can not offer any financial compensation, but you will be given full credit for your work, and I can offer you some twitter and blog shout outs.
I understand that asking people for free labor is not a very sensical thing to do in today's world, but I'm doing it anyway. If anybody is interested in helping, please contact me. Thanks all.
If you are experienced with Photoshop or any other graphics design program and would like to help me out by making some logos, banners, or t-shirt designs, please e-mail me at jon2anderson@comcast.net or tweet me @McEffect.
I can not offer any financial compensation, but you will be given full credit for your work, and I can offer you some twitter and blog shout outs.
I understand that asking people for free labor is not a very sensical thing to do in today's world, but I'm doing it anyway. If anybody is interested in helping, please contact me. Thanks all.
Jaguars vs. Steelers, October 16th Advanced Stats
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Another big win for the Steelers today. They played a great first half and a not so great second half, but at the end of the day they got the win and they have a nice 4-2 record after six weeks. Here is the probability chart and the advanced statistics from the game, courtesy of advancednflstatistics.com (for an explanation of the statistics shown below, click here:
Were the Pirates Smart to Part Ways with Maholm?
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The big news this week in Pirates world is that Paul Maholm will see his 2012 option go un-picked up by his former team. That makes a lot of sense to Pirate fans, and should not surprise anyone. The option was worth $9.75 million, which is a ton for a small market team to give a pitcher who is just average at best.
The starting pitcher free agent market will be interesting this offseason. Here are some of the notable names that could be on the market come December (* = player has a club option that could be picked up).
Erik Bedard, Mark Buehrle, Chris Capuano, Bruce Chen, Bartolo Colon, Aaron Cook*, Kyle Davies, Doug Davis, Ryan Dempster*, Zach Duke*, Jeff Francis, Armando Galarraga, Freddy Garcia, Jon Garland, Aaron Harang*, Rich Harden, Livan Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, Edwin Jackson, Kenshin Kawakami, Scott Kazmir*, Hiroki Kuroda, Rodrigo Lopez, Jason Marquis, Kevin Millwood, Sergio Mitre, Roy Oswalt*, Brad Penny, Oliver Perez, Joel Pineiro, C.C. Sabathia, Javier Vazquez, Tsuyoshi Wada, Adam Wainwright*, Tim Wakefield, Chien-Ming Wang, Brandon Webb, Dontrelle Willis, C.J. Wilson, Chris Young
Obviously there are some names there that the Pirates would never consider. However, there are some names that you could see the Pirates going after (especially after the interest they showed in Jorge de la Rosa last offseason).
However, my question (and @rtjr's, whose tweet inspired this post), is if the Pirates have a realistic chance at signing a free agent pitcher even if they offer as much or more money than other teams around the league.
The sad truth is that players just really do not want to play in Pittsburgh. Why would they? The team has not had a winning season since 1992 and the chances of players getting big money in the future from the Pirates are nonexistent. The Pirates are going into the offseason with a big time disadvantage compared to other teams bidding on the same players, which raises a question in my head if they should have just held on to what they already had.
Maholm isn't a great pitcher, and I have said before that there is very little chance that he will pitch as well as he did in 2011 ever again. However, he is a big league arm that does not miss starts and can win ball games for you. There are a bunch of guys like that listed above, but Maholm has the one thing that they don't; he actually wants to play here.
I am not saying that the Pirates should have held on to Maholm, I believe the opposite. However, the other side of the argument that I presented above is very logical as well. Maholm might not be worth the $9.75 million, especially $9.75 million of the Pirates money, but they have to have some competency in the rotation, and Maholm may be the best pitcher that they could actually convince to play in Pittsburgh in 2012.
The starting pitcher free agent market will be interesting this offseason. Here are some of the notable names that could be on the market come December (* = player has a club option that could be picked up).
Erik Bedard, Mark Buehrle, Chris Capuano, Bruce Chen, Bartolo Colon, Aaron Cook*, Kyle Davies, Doug Davis, Ryan Dempster*, Zach Duke*, Jeff Francis, Armando Galarraga, Freddy Garcia, Jon Garland, Aaron Harang*, Rich Harden, Livan Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, Edwin Jackson, Kenshin Kawakami, Scott Kazmir*, Hiroki Kuroda, Rodrigo Lopez, Jason Marquis, Kevin Millwood, Sergio Mitre, Roy Oswalt*, Brad Penny, Oliver Perez, Joel Pineiro, C.C. Sabathia, Javier Vazquez, Tsuyoshi Wada, Adam Wainwright*, Tim Wakefield, Chien-Ming Wang, Brandon Webb, Dontrelle Willis, C.J. Wilson, Chris Young
Obviously there are some names there that the Pirates would never consider. However, there are some names that you could see the Pirates going after (especially after the interest they showed in Jorge de la Rosa last offseason).
However, my question (and @rtjr's, whose tweet inspired this post), is if the Pirates have a realistic chance at signing a free agent pitcher even if they offer as much or more money than other teams around the league.
The sad truth is that players just really do not want to play in Pittsburgh. Why would they? The team has not had a winning season since 1992 and the chances of players getting big money in the future from the Pirates are nonexistent. The Pirates are going into the offseason with a big time disadvantage compared to other teams bidding on the same players, which raises a question in my head if they should have just held on to what they already had.
Maholm isn't a great pitcher, and I have said before that there is very little chance that he will pitch as well as he did in 2011 ever again. However, he is a big league arm that does not miss starts and can win ball games for you. There are a bunch of guys like that listed above, but Maholm has the one thing that they don't; he actually wants to play here.
I am not saying that the Pirates should have held on to Maholm, I believe the opposite. However, the other side of the argument that I presented above is very logical as well. Maholm might not be worth the $9.75 million, especially $9.75 million of the Pirates money, but they have to have some competency in the rotation, and Maholm may be the best pitcher that they could actually convince to play in Pittsburgh in 2012.
The Last Pitch Paul Maholm Ever Threw as a Pirate
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Now that Paul Maholm is officially not getting a new deal from the Pirates this offseason, it's time to start thinking about him in the past tense. Maholm had a pretty solid career for the Pirates, and was one of our best players over the last five years (although that is hardly saying anything).
August 17, 2011 was the last start Maholm made for the Pittsburgh Pirates, and in all likelihood, it will stand that way forever. Here's the last pitch he ever threw in a Pirates uniform, a 79.7 mile per hour change up with 6.99 inch horizontal break and 0.89 inch vertical break to David Freese that went for a groundout.
What a pitch.
My best regards go out to Paul, he is a great guy that always gave the team everything he had.
August 17, 2011 was the last start Maholm made for the Pittsburgh Pirates, and in all likelihood, it will stand that way forever. Here's the last pitch he ever threw in a Pirates uniform, a 79.7 mile per hour change up with 6.99 inch horizontal break and 0.89 inch vertical break to David Freese that went for a groundout.
What a pitch.
My best regards go out to Paul, he is a great guy that always gave the team everything he had.
Astros to the American League?
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The Houston Astros are for sale and there is a good chance that they are moving to the American League, here's some reading from the guys who actually know what they're talking about:
Steelers and Generic Win Probability
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The Pittsburgh Steelers earned a big win last week against the Titans to extend their record to 3-2. That probably was not enough to get them back into the experts graces as one of the top teams in the league, but the advanced statistics might suggest otherwise.
Let's take a look at a statistic called Generic Win Probability, or GWP. Let's define it first:
Generic Win Probability (GWP) – The probability that a team would win a game against a notional league-average opponent at a neutral site. GWP is based on actual NFL game outcomes from recent seasons. GWP considers each team’s offensive and defensive running and passing efficiency, turnover rates, and penalty rates, weighted according to how predictive each stat is in determining winners. Adjusted GWP (AdjGWP) is corrected for the strength of a team’s past opponents.
Now here's the league leaders so far this year, courtesy of Advanced NFL Stats.
So you can see from that the Steelers have a 63% chance of winning a random game against a league-average opponent at a neutral site. Obviously, the average is going to be 50%, so the Steelers are that much above average, which is pretty surprising considering how they have played so far this year.
They made quite a jump with the good performance this week, going from ninth after week four to fourth after week five. Obviously you can only take so much from one game, but last week did a lot to help the Steelers from a statistics standpoint.
I might be looking too much into these statistics, but if I just posted basic football stuff, there is no way anybody would read it.
Let's take a look at a statistic called Generic Win Probability, or GWP. Let's define it first:
Generic Win Probability (GWP) – The probability that a team would win a game against a notional league-average opponent at a neutral site. GWP is based on actual NFL game outcomes from recent seasons. GWP considers each team’s offensive and defensive running and passing efficiency, turnover rates, and penalty rates, weighted according to how predictive each stat is in determining winners. Adjusted GWP (AdjGWP) is corrected for the strength of a team’s past opponents.
Now here's the league leaders so far this year, courtesy of Advanced NFL Stats.
So you can see from that the Steelers have a 63% chance of winning a random game against a league-average opponent at a neutral site. Obviously, the average is going to be 50%, so the Steelers are that much above average, which is pretty surprising considering how they have played so far this year.
They made quite a jump with the good performance this week, going from ninth after week four to fourth after week five. Obviously you can only take so much from one game, but last week did a lot to help the Steelers from a statistics standpoint.
I might be looking too much into these statistics, but if I just posted basic football stuff, there is no way anybody would read it.
Analysis Around The Horn
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This guy commented on one of my posts today, which led me to his sight, I was intrigued. You should check him out.
Steelers October 9th Advanced Statistics
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New thing I'm doing on the blog! Steelers and NFL advanced statistical work. Here's the goods and the index of what you'll need to know is beneath.
Comeback Factor (CBF): The measure of how big a comeback is in a game. CBF is defined as the inverse of the winning team’s lowest Win Probability (WP) during a game. For example, it a winning team’s lowest point in a game is 0.10 WP, its CBF would be 10, that is 1 / 0.10. The higher the CBF, the bigger the comeback.
Excitement Index (EI) – The measure of how exciting a game is. EI measures the total movement of the Win Probability (WP) line during a game. The more that WP fluctuates, the more dramatic, uncertain, and exciting a game is.
Win Probability Added (WPA) – The difference between a team’s Win Probability (WP) at the start of a play and the WP at the end of the play. WPA is the measure of a play’s impact on the outcome of a game. An individual player’s WPA is the sum of the WPA of the plays in which that player was directly involved. Being directly involved is defined as an offensive player who ran, threw, or kicked the ball, was targeted by a pass, or flagged for a penalty. Defensive players are credited for WPA when they tackle or sack the ball carrier, are credited with an assisted tackle or sack, cause a fumble, defend a pass, or are flagged for a penalty.
Expected Points Added (EPA) – The difference between the Expected Points (EP) at the start of a play and the EP at the end of they play. EPA is the measure of a play’s impact on the score of the game. An individual player’s EPA is the sum of the EPA of the plays in which that player was directly involved. Being directly involved is defined as an offensive player who ran, threw, or kicked the ball, was targeted by a pass, or flagged for a penalty.
Success Rate (SR) – The proportion of plays in which a player was directly involved that would typically be considered successful. Specifically, SR is the percentage of plays resulting in positive Expected Points Added (EPA).
Positive Win Probability Added (+WPA) – The Win Probability Added attributed to a defensive player, limited to only the plays that are net positives for his team. It is a measure of a defender’s impact on the outcome of games in terms of play-making ability. Only positive plays are considered for individual defenders because very good individual plays can still result in net losses in WPA. For example, a safety who makes a shoe-string tackle to stop a TD would be a great individual play, but the play as a whole would still be a net negative outcome for his team. However, overall individual WPA likely correlates well with +WPA.
Positive Expected Points Added (+EPA) - The Expected Points Added attributed to a defensive player, limited to only the plays that are net positives for his team. It is a measure of a defender’s impact on the game score in terms of play-making ability. Like for +WPA, only positive plays are considered for individual defenders because very good individual defensive plays can still result in net losses in EPA. However, overall individual EPA likely correlates well with +EPA.
Tackle Factor (TF) – The ratio of a player’s proportion of his team’s tackles compared to what is expected at his position. For example, middle linebackers in a 4-3 typically make 11.9% of their team's tackles. A MLB who made 12.6% of his team's tackles would have a TF of 11.9/12.6 = 1.06. TF is adjusted for a full 16-game season.
Comeback Factor (CBF): The measure of how big a comeback is in a game. CBF is defined as the inverse of the winning team’s lowest Win Probability (WP) during a game. For example, it a winning team’s lowest point in a game is 0.10 WP, its CBF would be 10, that is 1 / 0.10. The higher the CBF, the bigger the comeback.
Excitement Index (EI) – The measure of how exciting a game is. EI measures the total movement of the Win Probability (WP) line during a game. The more that WP fluctuates, the more dramatic, uncertain, and exciting a game is.
Win Probability Added (WPA) – The difference between a team’s Win Probability (WP) at the start of a play and the WP at the end of the play. WPA is the measure of a play’s impact on the outcome of a game. An individual player’s WPA is the sum of the WPA of the plays in which that player was directly involved. Being directly involved is defined as an offensive player who ran, threw, or kicked the ball, was targeted by a pass, or flagged for a penalty. Defensive players are credited for WPA when they tackle or sack the ball carrier, are credited with an assisted tackle or sack, cause a fumble, defend a pass, or are flagged for a penalty.
Expected Points Added (EPA) – The difference between the Expected Points (EP) at the start of a play and the EP at the end of they play. EPA is the measure of a play’s impact on the score of the game. An individual player’s EPA is the sum of the EPA of the plays in which that player was directly involved. Being directly involved is defined as an offensive player who ran, threw, or kicked the ball, was targeted by a pass, or flagged for a penalty.
Success Rate (SR) – The proportion of plays in which a player was directly involved that would typically be considered successful. Specifically, SR is the percentage of plays resulting in positive Expected Points Added (EPA).
Positive Win Probability Added (+WPA) – The Win Probability Added attributed to a defensive player, limited to only the plays that are net positives for his team. It is a measure of a defender’s impact on the outcome of games in terms of play-making ability. Only positive plays are considered for individual defenders because very good individual plays can still result in net losses in WPA. For example, a safety who makes a shoe-string tackle to stop a TD would be a great individual play, but the play as a whole would still be a net negative outcome for his team. However, overall individual WPA likely correlates well with +WPA.
Positive Expected Points Added (+EPA) - The Expected Points Added attributed to a defensive player, limited to only the plays that are net positives for his team. It is a measure of a defender’s impact on the game score in terms of play-making ability. Like for +WPA, only positive plays are considered for individual defenders because very good individual defensive plays can still result in net losses in EPA. However, overall individual EPA likely correlates well with +EPA.
Tackle Factor (TF) – The ratio of a player’s proportion of his team’s tackles compared to what is expected at his position. For example, middle linebackers in a 4-3 typically make 11.9% of their team's tackles. A MLB who made 12.6% of his team's tackles would have a TF of 11.9/12.6 = 1.06. TF is adjusted for a full 16-game season.
Football Sabermetrics | Steelers and WPA
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If you read my blog, you know that I am all about the advanced statistics in baseball. Since the Pirates season is over, I automatically started wondering about the advanced statistics in football. I stumbled across this fantastic website that gives you a ton of advanced stats for the NFL. Here's the Steelers offensive WPA (win probability added) leaders so far in 2011.
Mike Wallace: 0.59
Mewelde Moore: 0.31
Ben Roethlisberger: 0.25
Antonio Brown: 0.20
Heath Miller: 0.19
Hines Ward: 0.09
Jonathan Dwyer: 0.08
Isaac Redman: 0.05
David Johnson: 0.04
Arnaz Battle: 0.00
Jerricho Cotchery: -0.02
Emmanuel Sanders: -0.09
Weslye Saunders: -0.15
Rashard Mendenhall: -0.19
According to this stat, Mewelde Moore has been a much better player than Rashard Mendenhall this year. Obviously, Moore hasn't had nearly as much opportunity as Mendenhall, so these stats need to be interpreted carefully. I'm not very sure on what a lot of this stuff means yet, I'm still learning, but I'll be sure to keep you clued in.
Keep checking back, I have a feeling this is going to be a common topic this offseason.
Mike Wallace: 0.59
Mewelde Moore: 0.31
Ben Roethlisberger: 0.25
Antonio Brown: 0.20
Heath Miller: 0.19
Hines Ward: 0.09
Jonathan Dwyer: 0.08
Isaac Redman: 0.05
David Johnson: 0.04
Arnaz Battle: 0.00
Jerricho Cotchery: -0.02
Emmanuel Sanders: -0.09
Weslye Saunders: -0.15
Rashard Mendenhall: -0.19
According to this stat, Mewelde Moore has been a much better player than Rashard Mendenhall this year. Obviously, Moore hasn't had nearly as much opportunity as Mendenhall, so these stats need to be interpreted carefully. I'm not very sure on what a lot of this stuff means yet, I'm still learning, but I'll be sure to keep you clued in.
Keep checking back, I have a feeling this is going to be a common topic this offseason.
The Randomness of Wins and Losses in the NFL
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I have been doing some reading on further statistical and mathematical breakdowns of the game of football, and stumbled across this article from one of my new favorite websites - advancednflstats.com - about the randomness of teams wins and loss records in football. Check it out, it's a great read.
2011 MLB Starting Pitchers and the Draft
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The Tampa Bay Rays have been eliminated from the playoffs, but not without raising some big questions in my head first. I wrote a post a few days ago about the drafting genius of the franchise. All five of their mainstay starters this year were drafted and developed within the system. That's truly impressive these days.
All of that raised another question in my head of what the other teams in the league look like when you check to see where there starters came from. I compiled the data, and here it is:
This is a Pirates blog, so let me note this first: there are only four pitchers above that were drafted by the Pittsburgh Pirates. That's right, of the 150 most used starting pitchers this year, four of them were drafted by the Pirates. Those pitchers are Tim Wakefield, Paul Maholm, Zach Duke, and Bronson Arroyo.
Now let's get away from the Pirates and look at this data more generally.
There are three teams in the league that drafted or signed all five of their most used 2011 starters themselves (Dodgers, Giants, and Rays).
The Rockies are the only team with exactly four pitchers coming from their own system, and there are eight teams that drafted or signed three of their most used starting pitchers (Mets, Nationals, Reds, Astros, Twins, Rangers, Mariners, and Angels).
That leaves 18 teams that drafted or signed less than three of their main 2011 starting pitchers themselves, more than half the league. The Yankees, Athletics, White Sox, Diamondbacks, Brewers, Phillies, Pirates, and Cardinals all have just one pitcher on the list that they drafted or signed themselves.
Talent evaluation and development is crucial to all teams in the league, but that is especially true for small market teams like the Pirates. Some teams do it much better than others. We have seen the Tampa Bay Rays go from worst to first and now they have made the playoffs three of four years because of their ability to draft pitching in the draft.
The Pirates, on the other hand, have not done a good job at all in the draft, especially with pitchers. The four that they have drafted that are still relevant in this league are not top pitchers by any means, Wakefield has been very good in his extremely long tenure in the league, and Arroyo has had a successful career as well. However, Wakefield was drafted in 1988, so that is long before any elements of the current Pirates management were around, and Arroyo was selected in the 1995 draft. So for last 16 years, the Pirates have drafted only two pitchers that are still good enough to be a top-5 performer for a major league team, and there lies a huge part of why the Pirates have been a losing team for 19 years.
All of that raised another question in my head of what the other teams in the league look like when you check to see where there starters came from. I compiled the data, and here it is:
Now let's get away from the Pirates and look at this data more generally.
There are three teams in the league that drafted or signed all five of their most used 2011 starters themselves (Dodgers, Giants, and Rays).
The Rockies are the only team with exactly four pitchers coming from their own system, and there are eight teams that drafted or signed three of their most used starting pitchers (Mets, Nationals, Reds, Astros, Twins, Rangers, Mariners, and Angels).
That leaves 18 teams that drafted or signed less than three of their main 2011 starting pitchers themselves, more than half the league. The Yankees, Athletics, White Sox, Diamondbacks, Brewers, Phillies, Pirates, and Cardinals all have just one pitcher on the list that they drafted or signed themselves.
Talent evaluation and development is crucial to all teams in the league, but that is especially true for small market teams like the Pirates. Some teams do it much better than others. We have seen the Tampa Bay Rays go from worst to first and now they have made the playoffs three of four years because of their ability to draft pitching in the draft.
The Pirates, on the other hand, have not done a good job at all in the draft, especially with pitchers. The four that they have drafted that are still relevant in this league are not top pitchers by any means, Wakefield has been very good in his extremely long tenure in the league, and Arroyo has had a successful career as well. However, Wakefield was drafted in 1988, so that is long before any elements of the current Pirates management were around, and Arroyo was selected in the 1995 draft. So for last 16 years, the Pirates have drafted only two pitchers that are still good enough to be a top-5 performer for a major league team, and there lies a huge part of why the Pirates have been a losing team for 19 years.
The Drafting Genius of the Rays
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The Rays are one loss away from elimination and are currently losing 2-0 in the 3rd innings of their game right now, so by the time you read this, the Rays season could be over. However, that does not take away from one incredibly impressive fact about their roster.
Five pitchers started more than 20 games for Tampa Bay this year. Here are those pitchers, along with their basic 2011 statistics:
James Shields: 33 GS, 16-12, 2.82 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 2.3 BB/9
David Price: 34 GS, 12-13, 3.49 ERA, 8.7 K/9, 2.5 BB/9
Jeremy Hellickson: 29 GS, 2.95 ERA, 5.6 K/9, 3.4 BB/9
Wade Davis: 29 GS, 4.45 ERA, 5.1 K/9, 3.1 BB/9
Jeff Niemann: 23 GS, 4.06 ERA, 7.0 K/9, 2.5 BB/9
I am also including Matt Moore in this post, even though he was not even called up to the major leagues until September, he is a huge staple in the future of this Rays rotation, and he made one dominant postseason start in game one of this Rangers series.
So what do all six of those players have in common? They were all drafted by the Rays. That should not be some spectacular thing, but in these days of free agency, it has become quite a rarity. The Rays are a small market team, they had the 2nd lowest payroll in all of baseball this year. Despite that, they have found a way to make the playoffs three of the last four years, including making a trip to the World Series in 2008. They do that despite having no chance to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox in free agency; the Rays can't even afford to hold on to their star players for long, as evidenced by their loss of Carl Crawford last offseason. However, they remain competitive because they have been probably the most successful team in the draft every year for a number of years.
It's not even just hitting on first and second round picks, check out where the above pitchers were drafted:
Shields - 16th round, 2000
Price - 1st round, 2007
Hellickson - 4th round, 2005
Davis - 3rd round, 2004
Niemann - 1st round, 2004
Moore - 8th round, 2007
Only two of those players were first round draft picks, and only one of them has performed like a first round pick (not to take anything away from Niemann, but he's not a top of the rotation arm). It is incredibly what Shields has done after seeing that he was passed up by every team in the league for 15 rounds before finally being selected. He was one of the best pitchers in the game this year. The Rays know how to draft pitchers, and that is what has kept them competitive.
The Rays don't have the best offense, which has held them back in this series and almost stopped them from making the postseason, but they have enough fire power to complement that incredible pitching staff and keep them in the race every year. Here are some of their notable drafted hitters:
Evan Longoria - 1st round, 2006
B.J. Upton - 1st round, 2002
Desmond Jennings - 10th round, 2006
Reid Brignac - 2nd round, 2004
Here are the Rays first round draft picks for the last 12 years:
1999: Josh Hamilton (yes, that Josh Hamilton)
2000: Rocco Baldelli
2001: Dewon Brazelton
2002: B.J. Upton
2003: Delmon Young
2004: Jeff Niemann
2005: Wade Townsend
2006: Evan Longoria
2007: David Price
2008: Tim Beckham
2009: LeVon Washington
2010: Justin O'Connor, Josh Sale, Drew Vettleson
2011: Jake Hager, Mikie Mahtook, Taylor Guerrieri
Hamilton, Baldelli, Upton, Young, Niemann, Longoria, and Price have all made impacts in the major leagues. The Rays have also been loading up on the first round picks the last two years, and I'm sure we will be hearing some or all of those names being called up to the majors and making an impact in the near future.
The Rays are a perfect example of a small-market team finding a way to compete with the big boys. What they do with their draft picks is spectacular, and it seems like teams like the Pirates should get out a pen and start taking notes.
Five pitchers started more than 20 games for Tampa Bay this year. Here are those pitchers, along with their basic 2011 statistics:
James Shields: 33 GS, 16-12, 2.82 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 2.3 BB/9
David Price: 34 GS, 12-13, 3.49 ERA, 8.7 K/9, 2.5 BB/9
Jeremy Hellickson: 29 GS, 2.95 ERA, 5.6 K/9, 3.4 BB/9
Wade Davis: 29 GS, 4.45 ERA, 5.1 K/9, 3.1 BB/9
Jeff Niemann: 23 GS, 4.06 ERA, 7.0 K/9, 2.5 BB/9
I am also including Matt Moore in this post, even though he was not even called up to the major leagues until September, he is a huge staple in the future of this Rays rotation, and he made one dominant postseason start in game one of this Rangers series.
So what do all six of those players have in common? They were all drafted by the Rays. That should not be some spectacular thing, but in these days of free agency, it has become quite a rarity. The Rays are a small market team, they had the 2nd lowest payroll in all of baseball this year. Despite that, they have found a way to make the playoffs three of the last four years, including making a trip to the World Series in 2008. They do that despite having no chance to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox in free agency; the Rays can't even afford to hold on to their star players for long, as evidenced by their loss of Carl Crawford last offseason. However, they remain competitive because they have been probably the most successful team in the draft every year for a number of years.
It's not even just hitting on first and second round picks, check out where the above pitchers were drafted:
Shields - 16th round, 2000
Price - 1st round, 2007
Hellickson - 4th round, 2005
Davis - 3rd round, 2004
Niemann - 1st round, 2004
Moore - 8th round, 2007
Only two of those players were first round draft picks, and only one of them has performed like a first round pick (not to take anything away from Niemann, but he's not a top of the rotation arm). It is incredibly what Shields has done after seeing that he was passed up by every team in the league for 15 rounds before finally being selected. He was one of the best pitchers in the game this year. The Rays know how to draft pitchers, and that is what has kept them competitive.
The Rays don't have the best offense, which has held them back in this series and almost stopped them from making the postseason, but they have enough fire power to complement that incredible pitching staff and keep them in the race every year. Here are some of their notable drafted hitters:
Evan Longoria - 1st round, 2006
B.J. Upton - 1st round, 2002
Desmond Jennings - 10th round, 2006
Reid Brignac - 2nd round, 2004
Here are the Rays first round draft picks for the last 12 years:
1999: Josh Hamilton (yes, that Josh Hamilton)
2000: Rocco Baldelli
2001: Dewon Brazelton
2002: B.J. Upton
2003: Delmon Young
2004: Jeff Niemann
2005: Wade Townsend
2006: Evan Longoria
2007: David Price
2008: Tim Beckham
2009: LeVon Washington
2010: Justin O'Connor, Josh Sale, Drew Vettleson
2011: Jake Hager, Mikie Mahtook, Taylor Guerrieri
Hamilton, Baldelli, Upton, Young, Niemann, Longoria, and Price have all made impacts in the major leagues. The Rays have also been loading up on the first round picks the last two years, and I'm sure we will be hearing some or all of those names being called up to the majors and making an impact in the near future.
The Rays are a perfect example of a small-market team finding a way to compete with the big boys. What they do with their draft picks is spectacular, and it seems like teams like the Pirates should get out a pen and start taking notes.
Justin Verlander 10/3 Pitch F/X
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Justin Verlander struck out 11 Yankees in a winning effort tonight to put his team up 2-1 in the best-of-five series. I did pitch F/X for every Pirates starter pretty much every night of the 2nd half of the season, so let's see what Verlander's looked like tonight:
| Pitch Type | Avg Speed | H-Break | V-Break | Count | Strike/% |
| 4-Seam | 97.1 | -7.86 | 10.76 | 47 | 30/68.83% |
| Change | 88.2 | -10.31 | 6.21 | 20 | 8/45.00% |
| Slider | 87.75 | 2.75 | 0.55 | 12 | 9/75.00% |
| Curve | 82.25 | 6.87 | -7.97 | 15 | 8/53.33% |
| 2-Seam | 95.72 | -10.98 | 9.77 | 26 | 18/69.23% |
Yankees Lose
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So my two favorite playoff teams, the Rays and Diamondbacks both have two losses in their series. That's frustrating. It's even more frustrating that the Diamondbacks have been losing to the Brewers, who I lose more and more respect for every passing day. I don't have any issue with the Rangers, but I really like the Rays, so it hasn't been a great postseason thus far in my eyes.
However, there is some good news. The Yankees are now one loss from being eliminated. The Detroit Tigers have played some good baseball and won a couple of tight games the last two nights. That makes me happy.
I would never call myself a Tigers fan, but there's no reason for me to dislike them, and any team that knocks the Yankees out of the playoffs is a likable team in my book.
If both the Rays and Diamondbacks get knocked out in the next few days, I'm not going to be very interested in the postseason anymore, but the Tigers could help salvage some happiness for me by knocking out the Yankees.
However, there is some good news. The Yankees are now one loss from being eliminated. The Detroit Tigers have played some good baseball and won a couple of tight games the last two nights. That makes me happy.
I would never call myself a Tigers fan, but there's no reason for me to dislike them, and any team that knocks the Yankees out of the playoffs is a likable team in my book.
If both the Rays and Diamondbacks get knocked out in the next few days, I'm not going to be very interested in the postseason anymore, but the Tigers could help salvage some happiness for me by knocking out the Yankees.
Baseball America's Top 20 South Atlantic League Prospects
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Baseball America ranked their top 20 prospects from the South Atlantic League on their website, and Jameson Taillon is ranked at number four on the list. Check it out:
Gerrit Cole [Video] via Pirates Prospects
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Tim Williams from Pirates Prospects is down in Bradenton at the Pirates instructional league, and he took a video of Gerrit Cole throwing a bullpen session the other day. Check it out below.
Pirates 2011 Final Offensive & Starting Pitching Statistics
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I made it through the entire year keeping this spreadsheet updated, and I'm mighty proud of it. Here's the final results for the stats I chose to keep track of at the beginning of the year:
and here's the month-by-month (click them to enlarge):
There will be more with this coming tomorrow afternoon.
and here's the month-by-month (click them to enlarge):
There will be more with this coming tomorrow afternoon.
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