Steelers and Generic Win Probability

The Pittsburgh Steelers earned a big win last week against the Titans to extend their record to 3-2. That probably was not enough to get them back into the experts graces as one of the top teams in the league, but the advanced statistics might suggest otherwise.

Let's take a look at a statistic called Generic Win Probability, or GWP. Let's define it first:

Generic Win Probability (GWP) – The probability that a team would win a game against a notional league-average opponent at a neutral site. GWP is based on actual NFL game outcomes from recent seasons. GWP considers each team’s offensive and defensive running and passing efficiency, turnover rates, and penalty rates, weighted according to how predictive each stat is in determining winners. Adjusted GWP (AdjGWP) is corrected for the strength of a team’s past opponents.

Now here's the league leaders so far this year, courtesy of Advanced NFL Stats.


So you can see from that the Steelers have a 63% chance of winning a random game against a league-average opponent at a neutral site. Obviously, the average is going to be 50%, so the Steelers are that much above average, which is pretty surprising considering how they have played so far this year.

They made quite a jump with the good performance this week, going from ninth after week four to fourth after week five. Obviously you can only take so much from one game, but last week did a lot to help the Steelers from a statistics standpoint.

I might be looking too much into these statistics, but if I just posted basic football stuff, there is no way anybody would read it.