Ronny Cedeno vs. Replacements

The Pirates declined Ronny Cedeno's option today, which has generated some serious buzz among Pirate fans. It has especially interested me, because I am in serious opposition to the decision. I believe that bringing Cedeno back for another year for $3 million made all the sense in the world. Some people have been asking me why, so I'll tell you.

First, let's take a look at Cedeno himself. Here are his career offensive and defensive numbers:

Offense:
7 seasons: .246 AVG, .286 OBP, .353 SLG, .277 wOBA
As a Pirate: .254 AVG, .297 OBP, .367 SLG

Defense:
7 seasons @ SS: -5.1 UZR, -1.6 UZR/150
2011 @ SS: 5.9 UZR, 6.8 UZR/150

Value:
7 seasons: 1.1 WAR, -15.7 Batting Runs Above Average, 6.1 Fielding Runs Above Average

So all that tells us is that Cedeno is not a good hitter, but not the worst. His defense hasn't always been good in his career either, but he had a very nice season last year with the glove and has been far better than any other defensive player the Pirates have had in their middle infield in quite some time. All of that said, he's not that great of a player, and to the naked eye, seems pretty easily replaceable.

HOWEVER, shortstop is not an easy position to replace, and the Pirates have very few other legitimate options in their system. The two that come to mind right away are Chase d'Arnaud and Pedro Ciriaco. We're going to take a look at them, but be sure not to forget that these numbers are based on small sample sizes and both players have a lot of room to improve.

Chase d'Arnaud:

Offense:
2011: .217 AVG, .242 OBP, .287 SLG, .247 wOBA
Minors (career): .270 AVG, .352 OBP, .410 SLG

Defense:
2011 @ SS: -5.8 UZR, -35.6 UZR/150

Value:
2011: -0.2 WAR, -8.1 Batting Runs Above Average, -2.3 Fielding Runs Above Average

You really have to realize that those numbers do not mean all that much for d'Arnaud's future. He has played just 48 major league games, which you can tell next to nothing from. However, he did not look like a major league player whatsoever in those 48 games, which adds to my confusion when I wonder why the Pirates would be okay with him as their primary shortstop for an entire season. He could develop and turn into a good player, but there is still the huge risk that he'll play that bad all year long and hurt the team significantly.

Ciriaco has even less numbers than d'Arnaud to consider, so I'm not even going to write them down. The story with him is pretty clear, he is a very good defender, probably better than Cedeno right now with upside to be much better, but he cannot hit at the major league level. No one is expecting him to develop much with the bat either, he hit .231/.243/.300 at AAA in 2011 (he does however have a .270/.297/.352 career minor league triple-slash line, but his make-up kind of overshadows that).

Basically, there is a ton of unknowns in this situation. We do not know how d'Arnaud will develop. If I had to pick d'Arnaud or Cedeno to be the Pirates shortstop in 3 years, I would take d'Arnaud, but for right now, he raises to many question marks for me to justify starting him at the major league level without a competent replacement like Cedeno.

Ciriaco should also be in the shuffle. For some reason that I can't understand, fans actually like the guy. The defense will be good, but I don't expect him to hit anything more than .240 with no power.

Cedeno is not a great player, he's hardly even a good player, but at least you know what you have in him. He'll hit around .250, give you a small amount of power, and will have some hot streaks all while playing above average defense, which is very valuable in today's MLB. You can't say anything for sure with d'Arnaud or Ciriaco, and chances are they will play much worse than Cedeno would in 2012.

Three million dollars isn't that much to spend on Cedeno, especially when you consider the $25+ million the Pirates are saving by declining the options of Paul Maholm and Ryan Doumit.

It is a long offseason, and there are some other free agent names that could fill Cedeno's spot for less money (and probably play better), but if they do not get one of them, it's going to be an ugly season at shortstop for the Pirates. The offseason is just beginning, and all of this could be irrelevant very quickly, but for right now, I have no idea what the Pirates are doing.