Part 1: Click Here
Part 2: James McDonald - Click Here
Part 3: Ross Ohlendorf - Click Here
Part 4: Paul Maholm - Click Here
Part 5: Kevin Correia - Click Here
Part 7: Wrap-up - Click Here
Charlie Morton's 2010 season went down in the history books as one of the worst seasons to ever be had by a Pirates pitcher. Morton got shelled time after time in the first few months of the season before being demoted to Indianapolis. Here are the numbers, try not to gag:
If you're sick to your stomach now, you have fair reason. The 7.57 ERA is remarkably awful, and the 12.7 hits per nine innings is right there with it. It would be incredibly difficult to post a higher FIP than ERA when you're ERA is over seven and a half, so the FIP being 2 runs lower really isn't anything to get excited about. If we're trying to be positive about 2010, you can look at the walk rate and see that it wasn't awful. Of course I'd rather have Morton walk a bunch of batters than give up a bunch of home runs (he gave up 1.7 home runs per nine innings last year, another remarkably bad number). This situation isn't without some positives however. After Morton was called back up to the big leagues in late August, he posted a 5.45 ERA in 7 starts. Alright, 5.45 isn't good either, but there were serious signs of improvement. He was locating his pitches better and striking out more batters. He also only gave up 3 home runs in his 36.1 innings (.74 HR/9). Small sample - yes, improvement worthy of another shot in 2011 - probably not. However, the Pirates are desperate for pitching, and there are things about Morton that warrant him getting another look, mainly because of the circumstances.
All Pirates fans know what the analysts say about Morton - he has great stuff but just can't put up good numbers. He leaves too many pitches over the heart of the plate and has become rather predictable. There is very little confidence with Morton and he seems to be a headcase. However, when you look at the pitch f/x for Morton, you see that his stuff really isn't that great, either.
In terms of velocity, Morton is above average, but not great. Last year his 2-seam fastball (FT) averaged 92.2 mph on the gun, while the league average was 90.29 mph. Morton's 4-seamer clocked in at 93.2 compared to a league average of 92.08. When you watch him it seems like his fastballs have a lot of movement on them, although the numbers don't show his fastball movement to be much above league average.
The other thing we can see from that first chart is that Morton was really a 3-pitch pitcher in 2010, with 2 of those being fastballs. He threw his changeup only 127 times (a mere 9% of the time), and his slider only 91 times (around 6% of the time). Hitters were sitting on the fastball and crushing it. They were swinging at a Morton 2-seamer 9% more often than they would the average pitcher, and they were putting it in play 4% more often than they would off the league average pitcher.
Morton's whiff rates were not impressive at all, he was either below the league average or just slightly above with all his pitches. His movement numbers were much of the same.
When you turn on your TV this spring/summer and watch a Pirate game with Charlie Morton on the mound, you're gonna hear about the good stuff Morton has. However, I'm not really convinced that that is even true. Sure, compared to the rest of the pitching staff, he has good stuff. However, when you compare him to the rest of the league, there's not much to write home about. His 2010 pitch selection was terrible and his execution was even worse. You can't put the blame fully on him for the selection, the coaching certainly hasn't helped him one bit so far, which could change since Joe Kerrigan is now gone. However, I wouldn't cross my fingers.
Despite all the negativity in this post, Morton deserves another chance in the 2011 rotation. Why? Because we don't have anybody else better. His stuff is better than what Scott Olsen or Jeff Karstens offers, and he is still young. Let's just hope that his confidence isn't completely shattered and he can start to work out the mental issues and let his ability turn him into the #4 starter that he has always dreamed of being.
2011 Prediction: 4.70 ERA, 4.35 FIP, 1.30 WHIP, 6.5 K/9, 3.3 BB/9