2011 Fantasy Baseball Preview - Third Basemen Rankings

Introduction  - Catchers  - First Basemen  - Second Basemen  
Third Basemen  - Shortstops  - Outfielders 1  - Outfielders 2  
Starting Pitchers 1  - Starting Pitchers 2

#1 Evan Longoria
Longoria's another no-brainer #1 guy for his position. He's been in the league 3 years and has posted a .283/.361/.521 career line with 82 home runs. He struggled a little bit with the power numbers last year, hitting only 22 homers, but he still drove in 104 runs. There's nothing to be worried about with Longoria's power, he had a better line drive percentage than his career average last year and he was unlucky with a HR/FB percentage that was 4.5 percent lower than his career average. He'll return to 30 home run form and hit for good average. He'll even swipe 10-15 bases for you, he's a first round guy without question.

#2 David Wright
Wright was ranked lower than he should have been last season, coming off as season where he hit only 10 home runs. However, he bounced back last year and hit 29 big flies. He teamed that with a .283 average, which was 22 points lower than his career average. His BABIP was .335 somehow, which makes that batting average hard to believe. He's a career .300 hitter, so I'd expect him to get near that number again in 2011, and he'll get you 25 homers. He's also a guy that can swipe some bases. He's a solid number 2, but I'd rank him significantly below Longoria.

#3 Alex Rodriguez
Rodriguez struggled in 2010. He hit only .270 on a .274 BABIP and saw his ISO drop to .236, which came to be because of a LD% that was 4 points lower than his career average. He was unlucky with the home runs with a HR/FB that was 6 points below his career average, but even with that he still hit 30 bombs. Some would say A-Rod is slowing down with age, he will be turning 36 in July, but I'd say the guy has 2 or 3 more really solid seasons in him. He's not quite near Longoria or Wright's level right now, but he's a solid number 3 and a good step in front of the #4 guy.

#4 Ryan Zimmerman
Zimmerman had some high expectations in 2010 after a huge 2009 season where he hit 33 home runs and drove in 106. He didn't quite live up to those expectations with only 25 bombs and 85 RBI. Zimmerman had a high BABIP, which could lead to a 2011 batting average closer to his career average, and his LD% decreased a little bit too. His HR/FB was higher than his career average, so it's hard for me to say that he will for sure raise his power numbers. Zimmerman's a good option after the top 3 guys are gone, but I certainly wouldn't group him with them.

#5 Adrian Beltre
Beltre was one of the most sought after free agents this offseason before the Rangers inked him to a huge 96 million dollar contract. While that seems to be overkill regardless of what he does, he could be a huge asset to them if he repeats his 2010 successes. He hit .321 with the Red Sox last year, with 28 home runs and 102 RBI. His BABIP was extremely high at .331 and his line drive percentage stayed the same as his career average. His HR/FB were right on track with his career as well. It appeared to be kind of a lucky year for Beltre, especially with the batting average. A 30 year old career .275 hitter hitting .321 doesn't happen very often. My guess he'll hit for good power but not come anywhere near .320 again in Texas. It's a good situation to be in though, so Beltre is a good guy to get after the top tier is gone.

#6 Martin Prado
We talked about Prado already in the second base post, but he is eligible at third base too, so he comes in at #6 on here. The reason he is so high is just because of the consistency factor. You know what you're going to get from Prado, which can't be said for the next few guys on the list. His upside is limited, and there could end up being much better third basemen picked after him, but if you like the way your team is looking after the first couple rounds and want a solid batting average with lineup flexibility, he's your guy.

#7 Pablo Sandoval
Sandoval had a break out 2009, when he hit .330 with 25 home runs. He was overdrafted and a huge disappointment in 2010, hitting .268 with only 13 home runs. He played so badly that he didn't even play in the postseason. For the type of free swinger he is, it wasn't hard to predict that he would fall off a bunch after 2009, but no one really expected what happened. It'll be hard for him to repeat those awful numbers, and with a 17.1 LD% last year, I expect him to come back up and be a top 10 third baseman easily. He's a little bit of a risky pick, but his upside is enough to warrant it, in my opinion.

#8 Pedro Alvarez
Alvarez came up mid way through last season and played well for the Pirates. He hit .256 after having a horrible first month to his career. He finished with 16 homers in 95 games, and he hit a very solid .280/.348/.493 in the seasons last 2 months. He swings and misses a ton, but he has real big league power. He has the upside of a top 5 third baseman, but ranking him around 7 or 8 is more realistic just because he still has a ways to go to realize his potential. If you snake him later in the draft, you might end up being very happy with yourself, I certainly wouldn't bet against him.

#9 Jose Bautista
Bautista was one of baseball's biggest stories in 2010. After having a career season high home runs of 16, he hit 54 last season. Where that came from, nobody knows. The interesting part is that his BABIP was an unbelievably low .233 with a .260 batting average. That means that his batting average almost has to come up. His line drive percentage has never been impressive, and it was worse than his career average in 2010. He had a ridiculously high HR/FB. I'm not breaking any ground by saying he's not hitting anywhere close to 50 home runs this year, but I honestly would be surprised to see him hit 30. Don't go near Bautista, he is way to overvalued this year.

#10 Aramis Ramirez
At the age of 31, Ramirez had the worst overall season of his career in 2010, with a .241/.294/.452 line with 25 home runs. As a result of his early season struggles, he was dropped in a lot of leagues. He's going to be 33 halfway through the season, and his power is seeming to disappear more and more every year. His LD% dropped a bunch from his career average last year, and I really think that's because of age and injury. If he keeps this up, more than his power is going to disappear - his playing time will too.

#11 Casey McGehee
McGehee was one of the Brewers best hitters last year, with a .285 average and 23 home runs. He drove in 104 runs in his 157 games. His numbers above are all pretty close to his career numbers, even though he had only played 125 games prior to last season, so that doesn't mean all that much. McGehee is going to be a solid option at third, he should hit for good, not great, average and hit 20+ homers. He's 28 so there's a little room for improvement, but I wouldn't say he has anywhere near the upside of an Alvarez or a Sandoval.

#12 Mark Reynolds
All fantasy players seem to know the story with this guy. It's home run or strikeout. Last year he hit .198, an incredible 44 points lower than his already poor career average of .242. His BABIP was bad, so his average should come up significantly, and he'll still hit you at least 30 home runs. Also, his relocation to Baltimore should help his power numbers, it's tough hitting in Arizona. The Orioles are an interesting team this year, and could score some runs. Reynolds will have some RBI opportunities and should be one of the better power hitters in the league. However, the average and strikeouts can kill a fantasy team.

#13 Ian Stewart
I thought about ranking Stewart higher than this, for a couple of reasons, but I just couldn't bring myself to do it. He's only 25 years old and he's already had a 25 home run season. However his batting average has always been low and he's had average BABIP's almost every year of his career. He hits the ball well, with pretty solid LD%'s, and he plays in Coors field. Those things all give this kid a lot of upside. If he can get his batting average up 10 or 20 points, he could be a very good steal later in drafts. Definitely take a serious look at him.

#14 Chase Headley
The position gets really thin from here on. Headley is unspectacular at best. Last year he hit 11 home runs with a .264 batting average, and that's pretty much how he's always been and how he'll always be. He has always had a high BABIP, but he's only played like 2 and a half seasons, so I expect that to start dropping soon. The average is going to get even lower, and it's already bad. There's not much power here. He might steal you 15 bags, but he's nothing more than a reserve player in my book.

#15 Placido Polanco
The ageless Polanco had another good batting average season last year. He's a career .303 hitter and he was right there again in 2010 with a .298 mark. The power has never been there, and he doesn't steal bases. He's good for batting average, and that's it. That's really all there is to say here. If you have a ton of power guys on your team and you need a guy to bring up your batting average, draft Polanco.

#16 Scott Rolen
Speaking of ageless, Rolen had a great season with the Reds last year, hitting .285 with 20 homers. His BABIP was pretty sound at .302 and his LD% even fell a little bit. However, his age is going to slow him down eventually, I think Rolen's career is about over. I'd avoid him completely.

#17 Omar Infante
We talked about Infante in the second base rankings, and he was in the exact same #17 spot. He had a ridiculously good year last year, and that was helped by a .355 BABIP. He's going to be 29 this year and all the numbers say that 2010 was a fluke. I don't see any reason to draft him.