2011 Fantasy Baseball Preview - First Basemen Rankings

Introduction  - Catchers  - First Basemen  - Second Basemen  
Third Basemen  - Shortstops  - Outfielders 1  - Outfielders 2  
Starting Pitchers 1  - Starting Pitchers 2
It's time to start thinking about fantasy baseball again, and we've got you covered here at The "Mc" Effect. Today we're talking first basemen. Below you will find the links to previous posts and then my rankings, followed by an individual breakdown of each player.


#1 Albert Pujols
This is another no-brainer number one guy. Pujols is the best hitter in the game and will be the #1 overall pick in most drafts. He hit .312 in a 'down year' for batting average, but he hit 42 bombs and drove in 118, both of which led the National League. All of his numbers shown here dropped from his career averages, but not enough to raise any bit of worry about his production. If you have the first overall pick, this is the guy you want.

#2 Miguel Cabrera
Cabrera had a big year in 2010 and further solidified his standing as one of the top hitters in the game. His raised his batting average from his career average by 15 points last season, and also showed major improvement in ISO. His line drive percentage fell a little bit, which shows that the improved ISO had some luck to it, but not really anything to push you away from drafting him. Cabrera will be the #2 pick in a lot of drafts this year, and I don't have a problem with that.

#3 Joey Votto
Votto was the National League MVP last year after a season where he hit .324 with 37 homers and 113 RBI. He is an interesting guy to look at in this context however. We can see that his line drive percentage was actually lower than his career average, which you wouldn't expect, but his HR/FB% was significantly higher. That suggests that he probably didn't hit the ball well enough to warrant the 37 bombs, and we should expect less than that from his this year. He's been a great hitter every year though, and he's still only 27 years old, so I fully expect him to be a top 3 fantasy baseball first baseman this year. Don't expect him to be in MVP contention again, but he'll be really solid. He's my last guy in the top tier of first basemen, so if Pujols and Cabrera are gone, you'd be wise to select Votto in round 2 or 3.

#4 Adrian Gonzalez
Gonzalez has played his entire career in a very tough Petco Park, now he gets to go play ball at Fenway 81 times a year, which means good things for his owners. Gonzalez had a good season in 2010, with a solid .298 average and a 21.1 LD%. His HR/FB were have always been low because of Petco Park, so that number will almost certainly get higher after his trade to Boston. That means more home runs and more RBI for Gonzalez. He almost sneaked in the top-tier, so he's a great option if you miss out on the top 3.

#5 Mark Teixeira
Teixeira was looked at as a first round pick in a lot of drafts last year, but that's not the case this year. 2010 was pretty rough on Teixeira, he had an absolutely putrid start to the season but had some hot streaks which brought his numbers up. He finished the year with an ugly .256 batting average, 30 points lower than his career average. However, he did belt 33 homers, thanks in part to a hitter-friendly Yankee stadium. His ISO and HR/FB weren't all that impressive, however, which is strange. My guess is that the HR/FB goes up just because of Yankees Stadium, and he hits 30 homers again, easily. Teixeira also had an extremely low BABIP, so his average should come up in 2011 as well. He's a great value pick this year, you could be getting 1st-2nd round numbers for a 3rd-4th round pick.

#6 Kevin Youkilis
"The Greek God of Walks" missed some time to injury in 2010, which limited him to only 102 games. He hit 19 home runs in that time and was a disappointment for fantasy owners who drafted him for power. His .307 batting average was very pleasant, and he posted another good OBP year with a mark of .411. Youkilis now has Carl Crawford and the aforementioned Adrian Gonzalez in the lineup, which should lead to some increased RBI opportunities. Despite the lack of home runs, Youkilis' ISO went up from his career average, so I would expect some serious improvement in the power categories. Youkilis is a great guy to draft this year, and much like Teixeira, he could turn into a round 3-4 steal.

#7 Prince Fielder
Fielder is another interesting player. He had his struggles last year and posted another bad batting average of .261. He hit 32 homers, but that wasn't a lot for his owners that drafted him in the 1st or 2nd round looking for 40 bombs and 120+ RBI. It was a disappointing season for Fielder, but I don't expect it to be that bad again in 2011. I don't think he'll ever replicate his 46 HR, 141 RBI season that he had in 2009, which is why he comes in at #7 here. Fielder's 2010 sabermetric numbers weren't far off from his career average, which shows me even more that his 2009 season was flukish. He just recently got a 1-year contract, so he has some incentive to post more great numbers to get himself some more cash next offseason. That said, I wouldn't even consider Fielder until all of the above guys are taken.

#8 Ryan Howard
Every year Howard is in the league, it becomes more clear that you know exactly what you're going to get from him every year. If he stays healthy, you can take 35+ HR and 100+ RBI to the bank. However, he's not going to help your batting average and he's gonna strike out a ton. Last year he missed some time and played 143 games. He hit only 31 bombs and drove in only 108. That's why he comes in pretty low on the first basemen ranks here. His BABIP, OBP, and LD% were on line with his career averages, but he struggled mightily in HR/FB and ISO. Bad luck was definitely a part of Howard's 2010 season, and he should rebound somewhat. Don't expect a good batting average, but he'll get you those 35 homers and 100 RBI.

#9 Kendry Morales
If you watched baseball consistently last year, you probably saw Morales jumping into a swarm of his teammates at home plate after a walk-off home run, only to fall to the ground in pain after injuring his leg, an injury which ended his season very early. If you owned Morales, you probably wanted to cry after seeing it. He was a guy that was drafted in the middle rounds, but was playing like an upper-round guy. He hit .290 with 11 HR in his first 51 games before the injury, on pace for a huge year. After the injury a lot of people forgot about that, which could turn him into quite a steal. You can't draw much from his 2010 numbers here, because of the small sample size, but if you're one of those people that goes for value picks and grabs a catcher, a second baseman, a shortstop, and some pitchers early in the draft, Morales could be a great guy to get after the rest of the first basemen have been taken. First base is incredibly deep this year, so it would be pretty wise to wait awhile and then nab a guy like Morales to fill the first base spot on your team. There's no reason why Morales can't post really solid numbers this year.

#10 Adam Dunn
Dunn has been in the league forever, but he just keeps hitting home runs. From 2005 through 2008, he hit 40 home runs every year. The last 2 years he has hit 38. He's not exactly falling off with age. The reason Dunn gets drafted so late is because of the batting average. Last year he hit .260, which is 10 points higher than his career average. His BABIP was way up, so the average might fall down again in 2011, but the power is real. If he plays the whole year, there's not a better bet for 35 home runs in the game. He's a good guy to get if you draft a lot of high batting average guys early in the draft and you can afford to take his strikeouts and 0-4 days.

#11 Billy Butler
Butler is a guy we don't know that much about. He's been in the league since 2007, but has been flying under the radar playing in Kansas City. Last year he kind of burst onto the scene a little bit with a .318 batting average. However, he didn't even get to 20 HR, which is something that is almost required for a fantasy first baseman. He's young and improved power would not be a surprise at all, but he's not a guy that's going to swat 30 homers a year. His sabermetrics were nearly right on with his career averages in 2010, so there's no reason to believe he'll fall off or improve besides age and team improvement, and both of those factors are on his side. He's not a guy you want starting on your team, but he's a good utility or back-up option with pretty nice upside.

#12 Justin Morneau
Morneau has been putting up great numbers since 2004, but he is now 30 years old and has become somewhat of an injury risk. Last year he played only 81 games and hit 18 homers. He was really good in those games, but the fact that he's aging and an injury risk really takes him out of the ranks of a fantasy starter at the first base position. Again, he's a good guy to have as a utility or back-up, but his days of 30 HR and 100 RBI with a .270+ batting average seem to be over. I could be wrong, and he could turn into a mid-round steal, but I probably won't be drafting him.

#13 Buster Posey
We talked about Posey in the catchers post, because that is where you're going to be drafting him. He does have first base eligibility though, so I had to put him on this list. We know that Posey can put up fantastic numbers for a catcher at the plate, but if you have him in your first base slot with a crappy offensive catcher, his value is a lessened. He'll probably hit 25+ HR and hit near .300 in 2011, but be smart and take those numbers from the catcher slot and get another guy to fill in for first base. 25 HR and .300 is fantastic for a catcher, but just average for a first baseman.

#14 Paul Konerko
Konerko was a huge surprise in 2010. He came into the season at 34 years old and everyone expected him to fall off. However, he hit 39 homers with a .312 batting average, numbers that made his owners incredibly happy. However, there's reason to believe he won't repeat anything like those numbers in 2011. His BABIP was very high, his ISO was very high, and his LD% went down. Those three things mixed means he was pretty fortunate. At 35 years old, Konerko should only be used as a back-up first baseman.

#15 Gaby Sanchez
Sanchez was very solid for the Marlins in 2010. However, when you look at the numbers, he's not all that great of a fantasy player. He only hit .273, which isn't bad but it's disappointing when you see that he didn't even reach 20 HRs and he played first base. His BABIP was right at the average spot, so I would expect another .270+ average season for him, but the power just isn't there enough to make me think about making him anything but a back-up. He's also not as young as you might think, he'll be 27 until September, so he doesn't have the upside that a 24-25 year old 2nd season player might have.

#16 Aubrey Huff
At the age of 34, Huff had a career year. That's not normal. Everything went right for the Giants in 2010, and Huff was no exception. His .216 ISO was well higher than his career average, and well, I just don't see him putting up good numbers again in 2011. If you're looking at another first baseman in the late rounds, go with somebody younger with more upside than Huff.

#17 Carlos Pena
Pena was unbelievably bad for the Rays in 2010. He has never hit for good batting average, but .196 is just ridiculous. He hit 28 homers, which was 11 less than he hit in 2009. He's 33 years old, so this wasn't a surprise (the magnitude of it may have been, but not the decline in general). The Cubs lost their old, washed up first baseman to free agency, so they decided to get another one in Pena. Wrigley isn't a bad place to hit, and Pena should improve on his 2010 numbers, but that's not saying much at all. If you like a guy that hits .220 with no speed and no upside, draft this guy, otherwise, use your pick elsewhere.

#18 Ike Davis
Davis was one of the better young players in the National League in 2010, hitting 19 homers and driving in 71. However, he wasn't a good fantasy player. His batting average is always going to be low, and unless he develops serious 30 HR power potential, there's no reason to have him on your fantasy team. He's on the list because he's young enough to improve and give us a reason to draft him, but it's not this year.

#19 Michael Cuddyer
Cuddyer struggled in 2010, and my guess it was because he's 32 years old. He had a normal batting average year, but the power almost disappeared. He hit 14 homers in 157 games, which is terrible for a fantasy first baseman. He has outfield eligibility too, so that might be a reason to draft him in the latest rounds, but he's really not a guy you should think about as anything but a depth guy to fill in for off days or injuries. I don't see him falling off the table completely like Pena did last year, you pretty much know what you're getting from him, but you know that it's not good. Again, draft a guy with more upside before you draft Cuddyer.