Part 1: Click Here
Part 2: James McDonald - Click Here
Part 3: Ross Ohlendorf - Click Here
Part 4: Paul Maholm - Click Here
Part 6: Charlie Morton - Click Here
Part 7: Wrap-up - Click Here
2010 was a tough year for Kevin Correia. He started out decently and then fell apart at the end of the year after a tragic death in his family. Team officials said that he could never get his mind fully back on baseball after all that happened, and that is completely understandable. The Padres were in serious playoff contention, so they could not afford to let Correia make a bunch of starts without his mind fully on it, so his major league season was cut short, not making a start in the final 2 months of the season. Here's his numbers from his time in the majors last year:
Correia had a 5.40 ERA, which was not at all what anybody was expecting after he posted a 3.91 in 33 starts in 2009. However the 4.71 FIP shows that he wasn't as bad as the ERA suggests. 4.71 still isn't a very good number, but it is encouraging to know that his performance alone was better than the numbers show. He struggled a little with control at times, but his strikeout rate was one of the best he's posted in his career. He's not an overpowering pitcher, but he has enough stuff to shut down teams from time to time. Let's take a closer look at the pitches he throws:
You can see from these numbers that he does not have very good velocity. His fastball sits at 90mph, while the league average is about 92. His favorite pitch is the slider, which he threw 32.5% of the time in 2010. That slider is around 3 miles an hour faster than the league average slider, and also has above average movement. He throws the slider for a strike 63.2% of the time and it is put in play 20.1% of the time. The strike percentage there is right around average, but his whiff rate with the slider is 4% lower than average. The low whiff rate isn't uncommon for Correia, he is right around or below league average on every pitch but the 2-seam fastball.
All together Correia is a very average big league pitcher. He isn't a strikeout guy, and he relies a lot on the groundball (23.48% of his at bats result in a groundout). With the Pirates infield, that isn't necessarily a good thing. However, the infield should improve this year and I really expect Correia to bounce back from his less than stellar 2010 season.
Correia will be the #4 starter for the Pirates in 2011 but I expect him to pitch better than Paul Maholm. If he is pitching well around the trade deadline, and the Pirates are ready to call up Rudy Owens or Bryan Morris, Correia could definitely be a guy the Pirates look to shop around to bring in some more long-term help. Should be an interesting season for Correia, and I am looking forward to seeing him pitch.
2011 Prediction: 4.45 ERA, 4.25 FIP, 1.35 WHIP, 6.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9