Part 2: James McDonald - Click Here
Part 4: Paul Maholm - Click Here
Part 5: Kevin Correia - Click Here
Part 6: Charlie Morton - Click Here
Part 7: Wrap-up - Click Here
In my second installment of the "Early Expectations - Pittsburgh Pirates Rotation" series, I talked about 2010's biggest positive, James McDonald. For my 3rd post of the series, I will be talking about 2009's biggest positive - Ross Ohlendorf.
Here's what Ross did in 2010:
It wasn't the best year for Ohlendorf - he really didn't improve, but he wasn't terrible either. The 4.07 ERA was the 2nd best any Pirates starter posted, behind McDonald. The FIP shows that he was a little bit lucky, and he walked a whole batter more per nine innings than he did in 2009. However, he struck out another batter per nine innings and continued to show the ability to improve as the season goes on.
If the Pirates want to compete in the next few years, Ross Ohlendorf is going to have be a huge part of it. His stuff isn't stellar, but he's a workhorse who can go out and give 6-7 strong innings more often than not. Here's a look at his pitch f/x:
(FF = 4-seam fastball, FT = 2-seam fastball)
When you take a look at the big league averages for Ross's main pitches, you see that he's not all that special in anything. He is right around or below average with almost every single pitch, the only exception being the curveball. The big league average whiff rate on a curveball is 11.63%; Ross posted a 17.9% rate in 2010. He didn't throw the pitch very often, which kept hitters not expecting it and bolstered that number quite a bit. If he would've thrown it more it wouldn't have come as so much of a surprise and hitters would be used to seeing it and that number would have fallen significantly. However, when Ross did use his curveball, it was a plus-plus pitch.
Ohlendorf will be number 2 in the rotation at the beginning of the year. Unfortunately, that's kind of a sad thing to say. When compared to other #2 starters in the league, Ross looks like a minor leaguer. That said, Ohlendorf is definitely a major league pitcher with #3 upside. He was held back by injuries last year, so it'll be interesting to see what he can do in 2011 if he stays fully healthy.
Ross isn't an easy guy to predict, but I'll give it my best shot here. The ERA to FIP comparisons showed that his raw numbers are pretty close to his actual performance. Nobody should expect Ohlendorf to have an ERA in the 3's, but it's not ridiculous to hope for. In 2009, he posted a 3.92 ERA, which was greatly helped by the 3.35 ERA and .246 batting average against he posted in the 2nd half of that season. The guy is never going to put up numbers like that over a full year, so the 4.07 ERA he posted last year is pretty acceptable.
Ohlendorf's strikeout rate increased in 2010, and he'll have to keep raising it if he wants to be real successful with the infield the Pirates are going to be fielding in 2011.
2011 Prediction: 4.20 ERA, 4.10 FIP, 1.29 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, 2.7 BB/9