Why This Year's Pirates is Better than Last Year's Pirates

I recently got in a little argument about the Pirates. As you might imagine, this happens quite often in my everyday life, but this one was especially interesting. A kid I know made a comment that this year's Pirates are worse than last year's Pirates, and they will almost surely lose over 100 games in 2010. I found that absolutely absurd and went on to explain to him why I disagreed. I figured I'd organize my thoughts a little better and make a post about it, so here it goes, The 5 reasons why the 2010 Pirates will win more games than the 2009 Pirates:
  1. More offensive upside. The 2009 Pirates entered the season with a middle of the batting order that everyone had seen before. We all knew what they were capable of, and we also all knew that they would almost surely not reach what they were capable of. The worst part about all that is that their ceilings were not very high. The combination of Freddy Sanchez, Nate McLouth, Ryan Doumit, and Adam LaRoche left a lot to be desired. They had seemingly all peaked offensively and there was little hope for a breakout year for any of them. We knew that McLouth could hit 25 homers, but we also knew he wasn't gonna hit over .270. There was much of the same with the rest of the lineup, we knew what we had, and it wasn't good enough to make a playoff run with. Now by no means am I going to come out here and say that the combination of McCutchen-Jones-Doumit-Clement-Milledge is clearly better than what we had in the 2-6 holes last year, there is still so much that has to happen to make that fact. However, the one fact I can say is that the ceiling for the 2010 combination is much, much higher than the 2009 model. If everybody in the lineup met their potential at the plate in 2009, the Pirates still would have struggled to compete in the central. If everybody in the 2010 lineup meets their potential, the Pirates are going to be one of the top offensive teams in the National League. While the chances of everybody meeting their potential this year is slim to none, it is nice to have that ceiling raised.

  2. Progression of the pitching staff. The Pirates did not add any starting pitchers to their big league roster this offseason, so we have seen all 5 of them a good amount of times. However, there is still a lot of untapped potential in the rotation. Now, we pretty much know the highs and lows that Zach Duke and Paul Maholm are gonna give us this year, but that's largely a good thing. They have both showed the ability to be consistent in giving the Pirates a chance to win, which is just what you want at the top of your rotation. While it would be nice to have a shutdown guy like Tim Lincecum or Roy Halladay, the Pirates aren't in terrible shape at the top. The thing that excites me is Ross Ohlendorf and Charlie Morton. These guys both had good outings and bad outings last year, and it's pretty obvious that they are not fully developed yet. Ohlendorf really came into his own in the second half of last year, and is only a few steps away from really finding his identity as a big league pitcher. That is certainly not true with Morton though, who has the potential to be better than everyone on the staff. Morton has sharper pitches and better movement than anyone, and if he continues to progress and learn how to pitch efficiently, he will be an ace in the near future. There is little doubt in my mind that Ohlendorf can replicate last year's performance and put up very solid numbers again in 2010, if not even better numbers. Those guys have very high ceilings and are sure better than any other 3-4 combination that had Ian Snell in it.

  3. A revamped bullpen. The biggest thing the Pirates did in the offseason was rework the bullpen. They lost big names like Jesse Chavez and Matt Capps, but signed new reliable arms in Brendan Donnelly, DJ Carrasco, Javier Lopez, and Octavio Dotel. There is a lot of experience in that pen, and I can see it becoming very consistent. While they are by no means one of the top bullpens in the league, I seriously believe that they good enough to win with. Joel Hanrahan and Evan Meek have fantastic arms and can really shut lineups down when they are on their game. There are going to be some bumps in the road, don't expect the Pirates to win every game they lead in the 7th and 8th innings, but there is little doubt that this bullpen is better than last year's.

  4. The new identity. The Pirates have been pathetic for 17 years now, and every year just seems to be same-old same-old. However, I think it's different this year. Management has publicly said that this is the team they are going to try and win with. There will not be any more big trades or roster moves, what you see now is what you're gonna see for awhile. This has a lot of the players relaxed and focused on playing baseball. They feel very confident and at-home, knowing that management has put all their chips in on them and are going to try and make a run with them. While maybe not everyone has bought into their approach, the majority of the players seem thrilled about it, and a positive morale can only help your record.

  5. Mid-season callups. The most exciting thing in the Pirates whole system is Pedro Alvarez, our mega-prospect 3rd baseman who has 40 homer potential. He is expected to make his debut in June or July this year, and he is something special. I'm not saying he's gonna come into the big leagues and swat 20 homers in 3 or 4 months, but I do think he will do some damage offensively. He's not the only big name prospect that will be debuting for the Pirates this year, we have Brad Lincoln and Jose Tabata waiting in the wings. Both of those players are capable of developing into consistent big league players. Lincoln may not be an all-star candidate anymore, but he looks like a lock to be in that Pirate rotation for a long time. Tabata is a pretty big question mark, we really don't know what to expect, but the ceiling is high.

To sum it all up, the reason that this year's Pirates are better than last year's Pirates is because of that potential. There are so many guys that have high ceilings, that the chances of all of them being busts are very low. There is more talent on this Pirates roster than there has been in years, and that can only translate into wins. Sure, there is a definite possibility that the team will lose over 95 games again this year, and possibly even 100, but there is a more realistic possibility that they will lose less than 90, which is exciting... at least for a Pirate fan.

1 comments:

Lee Hanyo said...

I really hope this is the year that I can regain the fanhood I've lost since popping out of the womb

Post a Comment