2011 Fantasy Baseball Preview - Starting Pitchers Rankings, 1

Introduction  - Catchers  - First Basemen  - Second Basemen  
Third Basemen  - Shortstops  - Outfielders 1  - Outfielders 2  
Starting Pitchers 1  - Starting Pitchers 2

#1 Roy Halladay
Halladay was been nothing but dominant his entire career. Last year he won the NL Cy Young with a 2.44 ERA while striking out 7.86 batters per nine. His LD% stayed constant with career average, as did almost everything else. Halladay should dominate again this year, I would consider him as a late first round pick.

#2 Felix Hernandez
One of the more disputed Cy Young award winners in recent memory, Hernandez took the award with a 2.27 ERA, but won only 13 games. The wins aren't something that you worry about when evaluating a pitcher's abilities, but it does factor into the fantasy game. The Mariners can't possibly be as bad offensively as last year, so the wins should come up, but he's still probably not going to win 20 games like some of the other guys around his draft position will. However, the ERA and strikeouts are too good to pass up.

#3 Tim Lincecum
The freak had an up and down season in 2010, frustrating some of his fantasy owners. He finished up strong with a 3.43 ERA and another great 9.8 K/9. Lincecum's FIP was down at 3.15, which shows he was hurt by his defense and park factors. He actually pitched better than the 3.43 ERA, which is impressive. Lincecum is a stud, and rounds out by top tier of starting pitchers.

#4 Jon Lester
Another big strikeout pitcher, Lester posted a 9.74 K/9 last year with a 3.25 ERA. His FIP was even lower than that, which is encouraging. One of the most impressive things about Lester's 2010 was that batters hit only .217 off of him with 16.9% LD%. Those numbers are both near the tops in the league. Lester was better than most people thought last year, and he should continue to post those types of numbers. I have him at 4, which is higher than most, but I really think he'll be a top 5 guy pretty easily.

#5 Adam Wainwright
Wainwright had another stellar season in 2010 with a 2.42 ERA and 8.32 K/9. The FIP was also solid at 2.86. His BABIP was .275 which is kind of low and could lead to a higher ERA/WHIP for him this year, but there's no reason not to draft him if some of the other top guys are gone.
UPDATE: Wainwright will have Tommy John surgery and will not pitch in the 2011 season. Do not draft him.

#6 Cliff Lee
Lee got a ton of money from the Phillies and joins possibly one of the strongest rotations in baseball history. Last year he posted a 3.18 ERA with the Mariners and Rangers with batters hitting only .237 off of him. The strikeouts have never been stellar, but he had a better than average year in 2010 with a rate of 7.84. Lee is an ace, and you know what you're going to get with him.

#7 Ubaldo Jimenez
Jimenez had one of the most impressive first halves of anybody in baseball history last year, posting an ERA under 1. However, he struggled a bit in the 2nd half and wound up with a 2.88 ERA. His 3.10 FIP shows that that number really wasn't a fluke, and his 8.69 K/9 shows that he'll for sure contribute in a big way to any fantasy team he's on. I think the expectations might be a little high for him this year after he showed a different level of dominance in the first half of 2010, so he might be overdrafted. I wouldn't draft him until all the above guys are off the board.

#8 Josh Johnson
Johnson quietly had a very, very good 2010 season. He posted a 2.30 ERA and a 2.41 FIP, with 9.11 K/9. Not many other pitchers had numbers of that calibur. However, experts have him ranked pretty low. I have him at 8, which is higher than a lot of guys. Pitching seems really deep this year, but I think Johnson has the ability to be a first or second tier guy. The numbers are undeniable, I don't see why he can't put up numbers with the best in the league. He could be a pretty solid value pick in the 3rd or 4th round.

#9 C.C. Sabathia
Everyone knows about Sabathia, he's been dominating for years. Last year he posted a 3.18 ERA with 7.46 K/9. His LD% was one of the best in the game at 15.1%. However, he's 31 right now and showed some bad signs at the end of last year. I think this is the year he'll start to come down, although he'll be pretty much guaranteed 15 wins (if he stays healthy) with the lineup the Yankees have.

#10 David Price
Price was a serious contender for the Cy Young award in 2010, posting a 2.72 ERA and striking out 8.11 batters per nine. His LD% was 16.7, which is a result of how much his pitches move. He has some of the nastiest stuff in the game, but still struggles with control and pitch selection at times. He's at the young age of 26, so he has room to get even better. He has a lot of upside, but also a pretty good chance to not live up to that potential every start. I'd go with a more sure-thing with my first pitcher selection, but if you can get Price as your #2 guy, you're in great shape.

#11 Clayton Kershaw
Kershaw has nasty stuff. He has had problems being efficient in his young career, which has led to high pitch counts and not going deep into many games. However, he posts great numbers every year regardless. He might not get the wins that other top 10 pitchers are getting, but his career 3.17 ERA and 9.26 K/9 is good enough to be a #1 or #2 pitcher on a fantasy team. Big upside here if he matures a lot in 2011, could be a steal in the early rounds.

#12 Cole Hamels
If you wanted strikeouts in 2010 from your fantasy team, Hamels would've been a great guy to have. He struck out a ridiculous 9.10 batters per nine. He had some consistency problems that his 3.67 FIP shows, however his defense helped him out enough to get him a 3.06 ERA, very solid. At the age of 28, it wasn't surprising to see Hamels have a career season in 2010, but I'm not convinced he's THAT good. I think luck was a big part of his season last year and I wouldn't be surprised to see him post worse numbers than that in 2011. He might be overvalued as well just because he's a Phillie, I'd avoid him until the rest of the guys I've mentioned already are gone.

#13 Justin Verlander
Another big strikeout pitcher, Verlander struck out 8.79 batters per nine in 2010 and posted a 3.37 ERA. The FIP was 2.97 which shows that he was actually better than his numbers showed in 2010. Verlander is a big strikeout guy with ERA upside. The .224 batting average against also shows how dominant he was. Verlander is a very solid pick, and at #13 on my list, it really shows you how deep this years pitching pool is.

#14 Tommy Hanson
Hanson was one of the top pitching prospects in baseball a few years ago, and he has done very well in his almost 2 years in the big leagues. He posted a 3.33 ERA last year with a 3.31 FIP while striking out 7.68 batters per nine. We're getting to the point in this list where pitchers stop being incredibly dominant, and Hanson doesn't seem to be an incredibly dominant pitcher. He is only 25 years old and has a lot of room for improvement, but I just don't think he's at the level of the other guys I've talked about already. His batting average against of .235 lags behind the rest of the pack here and his strikeouts aren't stellar either. He could be a pretty good pick just because of the upside, but he shouldn't be a #1 starter on any fantasy team.

#15 Yovani Gallardo
Gallardo is another young arm that isn't quite dominant yet. His 3.84 ERA was solid last year but not what you want from a top fantasy starter. He strikes a ton of batters out but he gave up a .246 batting average against last year. That could've been negatively effected by his unlucky .324 BABIP but the 24% LD% isn't encouraging. However, Gallardo has really good stuff and really good control. I think he is going to break out this year, and will be a steal in drafts. I have him much higher than other ranking systems, but I think he'll be worth it in the end.

#16 Zack Greinke
The former Cy Young award winner is switching leagues, going from Kansas City to Milwaukee. Pitchers normally perform better in the National League than the American League, so there are reasons to draft Greinke early right off the bat. Last year he posted a mediocre 4.17 ERA with 7.40 K/9. His FIP was 3.34 which shows you how bad the Royals defense was. He pitched must better than his numbers show, despite really not wanting to be there. Going to Milwaukee will be a fresh start for Greinke and he should put up some really nice numbers. He could be a major steal for where you'll get him.

#17 Chris Carpenter
Carpenter's dominates when he's healthy, and he's been healthy for couple straight years now. However, he's 36 years old and it's a question as to how much he has left in the tank. Last year he put up another nice 3.22 ERA, but his strikeouts remained at a really unspectacular 6.86, much like he has posted the during the rest of his career. His BABIP was pretty low last year compared to his career average, and I just think there are a lot of reasons to believe he'll start slowing down in 2011. I'd avoid him.

#18 Jered Weaver
Weaver had a big year in 2010, and really flew under the radar. He struck out 9.35 batters per nine, much higher than his career average of 7.82. His ERA was also much lower than his average at 3.01 and his FIP was right there with it at 3.06. Batters hit only .220 off Weaver with a 15.8% LD%. It was kind of an out-of-nowhere year for Weaver, and it's really hard to say whether he'll replicate that success. He's 29 years old, so age isn't working for or against him. It's kind of a coin flip for Weaver this year, but it's hard to argue with 9.35 K/9 during a full big league season. I think he could be a pretty good value pick.

#19 Francisco Liriano
Liriano had a bounce back 2010 and posted a very nice 3.62 ERA with 9.44 K/9. His LD% stayed pretty on track with his career averages, as did his BAA. The BABIP was high in 2010 which could mean good things for 2011. It seems like he figured his issues out last year and should be a very good pitching option for fantasy players for the next few years.

#20 Matt Cain
Cain is ranked really low on some lists this year, despite the 3.14 ERA he posted last year. His strikeouts aren't spectacular at 7.44 K/9 for his career, and his FIP has always been higher than his ERA. However he's always had nice BAA numbers and he's been in the league long enough for you to trust him. Cain is just another really solid pitcher that is going to go late this year because of the incredible depth at starting pitcher.

#21 Roy Oswalt
Oswalt was traded to Philadelphia last year and seemed renewed. His posted a 2.76 ERA with 8.21 K/9. Those numbers are good enough to be a top 10 fantasy pitcher, but at the age of 34 we don't expect him to repeat. He'll have less pressure on him this year with Halladay, Lee, and Hamels in the rotation with him, and he will definitely help your fantasy team. There's not a ton of upside and there's some drop-down risk as well. But again, he'll be going late and he'll put up great numbers for where you get him.

#22 Dan Haren
Haren had a kind of frustrating 2010 season with the Diamondbacks and posted a 3.91 ERA when all was said and done. Haren's batting average against wasn't very good at .262 and at the age of 31 he seems to be slowing down fast. He was an ace a few years ago, but those days seem to be behind him. There is still the chance of a bounce-back year, but it's probably not good enough to draft him in the top 20.

#23 Mat Latos
Latos was a huge surprise in 2010, at least to people who don't follow the Padres. He posted a 2.92 ERA with 9.21 K/9. His BABIP was low at .273 which attributed to a .216 batting average against. We haven't seen him in the league for long, so there are questions as to if he can repeat his success, but if he does he'll be a great pitcher that you can get outside of the top 20.

#24 Ted Lilly
At the age of 34 Lilly had one of his best seasons in the majors. He posted a 3.62 ERA and struck out 7.71 batters per nine. His line drive percentage was well below his career average at 17.9%. However, his FIP was much higher than his ERA and he will be another year older in 2011. Lilly probably won't repeat his 2010 success, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him be a pretty big bust this year.

#25 Max Scherzer
Scherzer has been really inconsistent in his young career. He has good stuff and a lot of velocity on his fastball, but he has problems locating. He showed some great signs last year with a 3.50 ERA and 8.46 K/9, but there are serious questions with his make up. He has big upside but probably won't realize his potential yet, he'd be a good guy to get around the #25 spot, but you shouldn't reach too far for him.