Home Opener post game thoughts

You're probably not going to find many game recaps on the site this season, because I've never really seen the point of that. Nobody relies on some blogger nerd to give them a recap of the game, if you want that there are much better alleys to go down. I'm also not on the type of schedule that allows me to pay attention to what the Pirates are doing every night, but it's Opening Day and that's always an exception.

I was at the game today sitting in section 314 and it was just a gorgeous day for baseball - probably the best weather I've seen for an Opening Day for as long as I can remember. Even better than that, the Pirates actually found a way to win the game this year, which they hadn't been able to do for the last three years.

I can't sit here and say how great Francisco Liriano looked, because I really couldn't see how his pitches were moving or how his location really was. Anyone who watches the game from section 314 and tells you they can tell how a pitcher's stuff is looking is a liar. The numbers are real though, six scoreless innings with ten strikeouts - right back into 2013 form it seems. I posted Liriano's pitch f/x here, which I'll try to do as often as I can. You can check that out, watch the highlights, and make your own opinions on how he really looked. One start is nothing to get too excited about, especially when that one start comes against the Cubs, but he couldn't have started his year off much better.

The rest of the bullpen got their job done as well. The Pirates got scoreless innings from Tony Watson, Mark Melancon, Bryan Morris, and Jason Grilli, Watson being the only one not to have to strand a runner. I was keeping an eye on the radar gun when Grill was on the hill, and the pitch f/x show that his fastball sat around 94-96 in his outing. He topped out at 95.9, according to Brooks Baseball. His average velocity in 2013 was 93.3, so it seems his fastball has just as much if not more zip on it this year than last year - which is always good to see from your aging closer. I don't think anybody had any worries about the bullpen coming into this season, and they showed us why today.

The offense was a bit rough. Before Neil Walker's walk off solo home run the team only collected five hits, all but one of which were singles. Two singles came from Travis Ishikawa who had a nice game with a couple slick defensive plays as well. Russell Martin and Andrew McCutchen added the other two singles and Starling Marte had a lead-off double and was then stranded. Pedro Alvarez hit one ball well, but right into a shift for a double play, and he struck out twice. One at bat came against a left-handed pitcher. For what I can see he didn't look all that bad in the box.

You can't take too much from one game, but it's always good to see your pitching staff get out on the right foot - especially with how much we depended on the staff last year to get the team through when their offense goes on their dry spells. It's always a confidence lift to win the first one and look good doing it. The offense is going to unpredictable like it always is, and probably won't finish anywhere near the top of the league in terms of raw numbers, but they showed last year that that's not necessarily a needed ingredient for success.

The big story before the game was the reception that Barry Bonds would receive from the fans. I took a video of the reception (with an iPhone 5S mind you, not the greatest sound quality) that you can check out below. There were some scattered boos and cheers - the reception was pretty neutral to my ears, but check it out for yourself.


Now we have the always hated day off after a very exciting day of baseball and the Pirates will be back in action Wednesday night when Charlie Morton faces Jason Hammel on dollar night at PNC Park. Tickets are ridiculously cheap as they always are for the season's second game, so I'd recommend checking that out. I'll be back with more tomorrow.

Francisco Liriano 3/31 Pitch F/X

6 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 10 K

Pitch Type	Veloc	H-Break	V-Break	Count	Strike%
4-Seam	92.7	7.64	8.98	11	54.5%
2-Seam	93.0	9.90	5.64	34	50.0%
Change	86.7	10.14	4.70	26	53.8%
Slider	85.9	0.87	1.78	33	69.7%

Cubs (0-0) vs. Pirates (0-0), Game 1

Jeff Samardzija (0-0, 0.00) vs. Francisco Liriano (0-0, 0.00)

Pirates lineup: Starling Marte, LF Travis Snider, RF Andrew McCutchen, CF Pedro Alvarez, 3B Neil Walker, 2B Russell Martin, C Travis Ishikawa, 1B Jordy Mercer, SS Francisco Liriano, SP

Opening Day morning - What I'm most interested in

Today is one of the most exciting days of the year, it's Opening Day of Major League Baseball. This has been one of my favorite days of the year for quite some time now, and this year's especially exciting now that I know for a fact that it is possible for the Pirates to make the playoffs.

I'll be at the game today, so if anybody wants to say hello or share an adult beverage with me before the game, feel free tweet me @JonPGH so we can make that happen.

For now I'm at work until 2am helping the world's largest paint companies employees with their computer problems, so I figured I'd use some of the night shift's free time to post some of my thoughts for the upcoming 2014 season. Every year there are a few things that I'm most interested in seeing from the team. Here's what I've come up with so far.

For the immediate future, I'm interested to see Barry Bonds at PNC Park and see the reception he gets from the fans. I'm sure there are going to be a good amount of boo's for Bonds, and it's hard to say that he definitely doesn't deserve it. The guy pretty obviously took steroids at some point in his career, which deserves criticism, but for what he did in Pittsburgh I'm not so sure we shouldn't all just get over it. So he was a dick to everybody, didn't seem to care about the fans, and didn't throw out Sid Bream - none of those are unforgivable offenses. Me saying all this might not matter as much since I was a toddler when Bonds was playing in the Steel City. Anyways, it'll be fun to see him there and to hear all the unwarranted and inhumane comments from the fans.

In terms of baseball, here are a few things I'm really looking for.

• Gerrit Cole's pitch selection. We all saw shades of what Gerrit Cole can bring to the table last year, but we have yet to see the pitcher that Cole will be for the long run. He threw mainly fastballs last year, and leaned heavily on the pitch for success. The pitch is good enough where that's perfectly fine for him to get by with, but Cole won't become a true ace until he integrates the rest of his pitches fully. He has an excellent changeup and a solid slider that I'm very intersted to see. The selection percentage is what I'm most interested in, but I'm super excited to see the ugly swings he gets this year when batters gear up for the 98 mile per hour fastball and get an 85 mile an hour changeup. That'll be fun. I'm not expecting Cole to be a Cy Young candidate quite yet, but it'll be very entertaining to see his progression.
  
  
• Starling Marte's progression. It's always interesting to see how players perform after getting a contract extension. Obviously Marte isn't at the point of his career where he'd be playing for a contract yet, he's still unproven and needs to establish himself as a legitimate big league outfielder. I do think that Marte will relax a bit more this year, which good be a good thing or good be a bad thing. The guy has a crazy amount of talent, and I'm interested to see how quickly he can realize it. The power numbers will be the most interesting part to see, because he has 20+ home run potential. He probably isn't going to get there this year, but it'll be fun to see him try. The fantastic defense and high stolen base numbers will come, which adds a ton of value already, so any power numbers he can provide are just gravy.
  
  
• The mid-season callups. This is an obvious thing that all baseball fans look forward to seeing from their team. In the last several years, this was probably the most exciting part of the Pirates season. We would have to hold out hope that our minor leaguers would come up and turn into stars so we could actually make a run at the playoffs. That's not the case this year, the big league team is good enough to be a contender as is, so anything guys like Gregory Polanco and Jameson Taillon can add will be added bonuses. It'll be nice to not have to put pressure on the young guys to feel like they have to help the team win. The team should be winning without them, so they can be a little more patient and comfortable when they do make their debuts. Polanco and Taillon are two special talents, and I can't wait to see them in Pirates uniforms, but it's refreshing to know that they aren't necessarily needed this year.
  
  
• The fans reaction to everything. This is a different year for fans of the Pirates. They've seen their team have a winning season and win a playoff game, and now they want to see that happen all the time. There's never been a reason for high expectations in the pre-season and now there is. Will the fans be able to handle some early struggles? How quickly will they start to lose hope in the team? This is all new for the younger generation of fans, so it'll be interesting to see how they react. Chances are that no matter what happens the fans will piss me off in some way, but I promise to try to be reasonable and calm.

Happy Opening Day everyone!

Baseball talk on Pittsburgh Sporting News with McEffect

This morning I joined Michael Waterloo, Jon Pennline, and Gar Bercury of Pittsburgh Sporting News for an hour of video-cast baseball talk. Why they invited me, I'm not sure. If you're looking for hard hitting baseball analysis from Jon Anderson, this isn't the place to find it. But if you wanna watch four average looking guys talk make blind predictions and try to act like they know what they're talking about, you can check it here, or watch the video below:

Has the bar been set too high for the 2014 Pirates?

I don't think I've written one post since bringing this blog back without mentioning the 2013 season multiple times. Last year was different than anything Pirate fans had seen for 20 years, which automatically makes the 2014 season completely different from the start. Opening Day is just two days away so now it's time to officially flip the page and start at 0-0 again.

One thing I've noticed is that the expectations for this year's Pirates team are extremely high. I've seen a bunch of predictions for how many games the Pirates will win this year, and I don't think I've seen any that have the win total at below 85. I'm not sure exactly how that's being justified. Last year at this time not a lot of people were predicting win totals above 82. My question now is - what has changed from then?

The Final 25 Coming to Pittsburgh

by Brandon Posa

In case anyone has missed it, the Pirates have officially announced their final 25-Man roster that will come north to start the 2014 season. Broken down by position:

Pitchers
Francisco Liriano
Gerrit Cole
Charlie Morton
Wandy Rodriguez
Edinson Volquez
Jeanmar Gomez
Stolmy Pimentel
Bryan Morris
Justin Wilson
Tony Watson
Mark Melancon
Jason Grilli

Catchers
Russell Martin
Tony Sanchez

Infielders
Pedro Alvarez
Neil Walker
Gaby Sanchez
Travis Ishikawa
Jordy Mercer
Clint Barmes
Josh Harrison

Outfielders
Andrew McCutchen
Starling Marte
Travis Snider
Jose Tabata

As I mentioned as the most likely possibility last week, Vin Mazzaro was designated for assignment today as the odd man out of the bullpen. The Pirates should immediately receive offers to trade him, with the most likely return being additional pitching depth for AAA Indy.

This is a solid roster to begin the season, and minus the addition of 1B Travis Ishikawa, is exactly what I had felt would be Clint Hurdle's starting forces for the beginning of 2014. It's a very long season, one in which we are likely to see the addition of a few top prospects, as well as a few late-season additions via trades if GM Neal Huntington & Co. feel the Pirates need an external push towards the playoffs. Time will tell if the 2014 version of the Pittsburgh Pirates will rival the success--or exceed it--that they reached in the magical 2013 season.

Let's Talk About 2014 & The Future

by Brandon Posa

With Opening Day 2014 less than three days away, now may be the most appropriate time to discuss any predictions for the upcoming season. Coming off of a wildly-spectacular and memorable Wild Card game, and a fight to the finish in the NLDS against the St. Louis Cardinals, the Pittsburgh Pirates are a team on the rise fueled by youth, energy, and the fire to take their game to the next level. 2013 was an incredibly special season that we all won’t soon forget.

I think it’s extremely funny and strange when you hear both the “professionals” and the most-casual of fans complain about the Pirates lack of doing anything during this past offseason. They let an aging AJ Burnett walk without a qualifying offer to the Phillies, and made no true attempts to reel back in Marlon Byrd and Justin Morneau. Meanwhile, they signed reclamation-project Edinson Volquez to a $5 million, one-year contract, they gave Charlie Morton an extension, and re-signed Clint Barmes to become the backup to shortstop Jordy Mercer. And, just this past week, they signed budding-star Starling Marte to a contract extension that could keep him in a Pirates uniform until 2021. At the beginning of Spring Training, there were clear holes not only at first base, but also right field and in their rotation.

The counter-argument I would make first is that the Pirates weren’t inactive. They were very active by insuring that they would not throw away their future for a few blocks and pieces to keep that mystical “window” wide open for a pennant run in 2014. Many fans seem to forget that Byrd and Morneau literally only played in a combined 55 regular season games for the Pirates. What the says to me is that right field and first base were clearly issues for 5 (FIVE) months last season before the Pirates truly were able to do anything about it, and they not only were competitive during that entire time between April-August, but also held the top spot in the division a number of times as well. Why all of a sudden is it such a bad thing that the Pirates didn’t throw a ton of money at any of the free agent RF or 1B this winter, or trade the farm to get a quick fix?

That answer is very easy to realize if you take a look at what the Pirates have on their hands. Looking into the future is a very difficult, and sometimes irresponsible, thing to do in any sport, but if we look at what the Pirates have on their hands potentially in, let’s say, 2016, it may be easier to understand why they didn’t go sign James Loney for $100 million (sarcasm). Using my better judgment, this is what I believe the majority of the Pirates roster could look like in 2016, and it is very exciting (known/estimated salaries for 2016 will be in parentheses):

1. Andrew McCutchen, CF ($13 million): Cutch is signed through 2017 with an option for 2018. McCutchen may be willing to renegotiate with the Bucs by 2016 to add on a few more years to the deal. He’ll still be the Bucs top position player as the face of the franchise and a superstar who could add another MVP to his collection.

2. Starling Marte, LF ($3 million) : Marte, as I mentioned before, just signed a contract extension that could theoretically keep him in Pittsburgh until his age 33 season. He is 1/3 of what could become the best outfield in baseball for the rest of the decade. As long as he can stay healthy, Marte can still become a .300 hitter if he learns to control his free-swinging ways.

3. Pedro Alvarez, 3B (Final Arbitration Year~$10 million) : Pedro has the most power anywhere in the Pirates system, which poses a problem because 2016 will be the final year of his contract with the Bucs. Alvarez is a well-documented client of agent Scott Boras, so it is highly unlikely that he signs an extension with the Pirates before the end of the 2016 season. He will essentially be playing for his first big pay-day, so Pedro could hopefully have the season of his lifetime, possibly producing 40+ homeruns for the Bucs. In a twist, the Pirates could also take a page out of the Tampa Bay Rays’ playbook and place Pedro on the trading block before the 2016 season if they feel they could either have an internal replacement ready (unlikely) or they can find someone on the free agent market that winter; this would allow the Bucs to flip Pedro for some top prospects to re-stock the system due to many graduations over the next two seasons.

4. Neil Walker, 2B (Final Arbitration Year~$6 million) : Neil is a quality major-league second baseman that has grown into the role after being drafted as a catcher by the Bucs in 2004. Walker and the Pirates have been rumored to have had contract extension discussions in the past, but nothing has arisen as of yet. I could see the Bucs still making an effort to retain Walker, but he may find himself without a starting job on the Bucs depending on what position the Bucs place top prospect Alen Hanson when he is ready to come up; Walker, then, will be playing for a brand new contract as well.

5. Gregory Polanco, RF (League Minimum~$550,000) : If everything goes well, Polanco’s 2016 season could be a true breakout after an estimated-1 ½ years of big league experience by then. He will complete the Bucs exiting trio of outfielders and provide power, defense, and great base-running skills for years to come. The Pirates may be wise to seek a Wil Myers or Evan Longoria-type deal with Polanco early on to not only give themselves cost certainty through his arbitration years, but also ensuring that Polanco doesn’t go anywhere during his prime years.

6. Tony Sanchez, C (League Minimum~$550,000) : It’s hard to imagine the Bucs being able to resign Russell Martin after the 2014 season, and with Sanchez ready to assume the starting role, it wouldn’t make much sense, either. Tony will provide reliable pitch-framing skills and defense, as well as an average bat, for the Bucs.

7. Travis Snider, OF (Final Arbitration Year~$2.5 million) : The Pirates will have a difficult decision to make in 2014, because they will have more major league outfielders than there are spots on the team. By 2016, I believe that they will have successfully trade Jose Tabata and his $4.5 million salary to a team that could give him a chance to reach his potential. I’m predicting Snider to have a good year for the Bucs in 2014, so it would be easy to see them retaining Snider as their fourth outfielder for the next three seasons.

8. Alen Hanson, SS/2B (League Minimum~$550,000) : If Hanson progresses nicely in AA and AAA in 2014-2015, it is easy to see him as a September call-up in 2015 and stealing a starting spot in 2016. It will be interesting to see if the Bucs finally decide that is arm will not play well-enough at shortstop and that he would become the eventual successor to Walker, or if he could successfully snag the shortstop position from this guy:

9. Jordy Mercer, SS (First Arbitration Year~$2 million) : Jordy looks to be the Bucs starting shortstop over the next couple of seasons, but if Alen Hanson looks ready to earn a big league spot, Spring Training 2016 could have an exciting position battle between he and Mercer. If Hanson does make the team, it could be easy to see a platoon-type situation with the two.

10. Gerrit Cole, SP (League Minimum~$550,000) : Cole is the future ace of the Pirates’ staff, bar none. He’s a workhorse that reaches 100 MPH and can easily throw over 200+ innings per year. He’ll be leading the way of an exciting, young rotation that could become one of the best in the league for a number of years.

11. Jameson Taillon, SP (League Minimum~$550,000) : Taillon can easily find himself slotted behind Cole in the starting rotation, barring any unforeseen time lost or poor results. Cole and Taillon will be the Pirates one-two punch that they have lacked for a long, long time.

12. Tyler Glasnow, SP (League Minimum~$550,000) : Glasnow is a top prospect that would be a number one prospect for many of the other 29 teams in the league. He projects to become another quality pitcher for the Pirates, so long as he is able to work on his command in 2014-2015.

13. Charlie Morton, SP ($8 million) : Charlie will still be bringing the electric stuff to PNC Park in 2016, and hopefully will be pitching like a top-2 pitcher for the Bucs. He can provide veteran leadership for the Bucs young hurlers, and become what AJ Burnett essentially had been for the Bucs in 2012-13.

14. Tony Watson, RP (Second Arbitration Year~$3 million) : Watson has grown in his time with the Pirates, and he will continue to become a very important part of the backend of the bullpen as a menacing lefty.

15. Mark Melancon, RP (Final Arbitration Year~$6.5+ million) : Mark the Shark will be in his final year of his contract in 2016, and could force the Pirates to pay a steep amount for their closer/setup man. If Melancon avoids injury and pitches at the level he did in 2013, he will be the most critical piece of the Shark Tank.

16. Justin Wilson, RP (First Arbitration Year~$2 million) : Wilson was another critical piece of the Shark Tank in 2013, and he figures to remain a fixture in the backend for his duration as a Pirate. Wilson has the potential to be stretched out as a starter, but that seems unlikely with the plethora of starters the Bucs have at their disposal. He could eventually become the setup man to Melancon.

17. Stolmy Pimentel, RP (League Minimum~$550,000) : I believe Pimentel can reach the potential the Pirates believe he has, and I believe he could reach it in 2014. He is another big arm that can reach the upper 90’s, so if he is able to control and work on his command, the Pirates could have an even nastier Shark Tank in 2016.

Based on my opinions and assumptions, this could be the collection of players that comprises 17/25 spots on the Pirates Opening Day 2016 roster, with a total estimated payroll of just under $60 million. Obviously, my arbitration estimates could be either under- or over-stated, but I think those are safe estimates based off of their projected performances and similar deals. Now, obviously I can’t project the future. Projections for the current season, let alone two years down the road, are difficult to make. None of my above list is guaranteed to happen due to injuries, trades, amongst other factors. But that is a scary Pirates team based off of potential alone. And, if 68% of the roster is comprised based off of just $60 million, it’s safe to say the Bucs will have a lot of extra cash to put towards a free agent first baseman, or by locking up their top young players to long-term deals, just as they have with McCutchen and Marte. The point of all of this is that it’s not ever smart for any team, not just a small-market team, to seemingly throw all of their money at one player for one season, when they could easily take that money and apply it over multiple young prospects that can easily fill that position of need.

For the record, I had wanted Andrew Lambo to begin the season as part of the first base platoon with Gaby Sanchez, but he will now begin the year with AAA Indy. Travis Ishikawa, although far from confirmed, will likely be the second half of the platoon, but who knows for how long. If Lambo tears up AAA pitching and Ishikawa is not producing for the Bucs, there will definitely be a switch for the two. It’s always safer to produce your own talent from within, rather than by overpaying in free agency, and the Pirates, while being “inactive” or “unfair” this offseason by not spending on a high-priced free agent, essentially stayed the course by ensuring that the Pirates have a competitive team in 2014, 2015, and beyond.

Oh yeah, the predictions. My gut tells me that it will be difficult to reach 94 wins again this season, but I certainly do not feel that the Pirates regressed enough to fall under .500. I believe the Pirates will fight for the Reds again for both second place in the division and a Wild Card spot, with the Pirates pulling ahead of the Reds again in September en route to an 88-win campaign and a second consecutive spot in the National League Wild Card game. As for brief player projections: Cutch will again produce an MVP-caliber season with the bat and glove, Marte will improve on his 2013 statistics and push for a .300 batting average, Pedro will knock on the door of 40 home runs, Polanco will be up in late-June and make a run for the NL Rookie of the Year award, Gerrit Cole will pitch to a tune of 17 wins and a sub-3.00 ERA, the Shark Tank will again be a top-five bullpen, and the remaining cast of Bucs I didn’t name will all contribute to another highly-exciting season for Pittsburgh.

Getting on the same page

by: Geep Charlebois

The biggest question that I have for this year’s Pirates team is will they carry themselves as the cohesive unit this season as they worked through last year’s playoff run? The answer lies at the hands of Clint Hurdle. He is a master motivator. He understands that each player has different needs. He is the one setting the tone that the clubhouse leaders need to follow. The Pirates have a good mix of youth and experience. I think that the skipper has learned from his Colorado experience how to keep the team moving in the right direction with everyone on the same page. I am hoping that we are at the start of a Clint Hurdle renaissance à la Pete Carroll at U.S.C. and onto the Seahawks. With the signing of Marte the pieces are being set into place for a long run of core talent.

The team is having a press conference on Friday regarding the new food selections at PNC Park. A few options have been leaked out already including the Closer. The sandwich which plays off of Jason Grilli’s nickname is a grilled cheese sandwich consisting of nine cheeses along with candied bacon. If we are going to say that the Pirates have big expectations for the 2014 season that statement includes the collective waistline of those in attendance.

Starling Marte doesn't care about money, signs with Pirates

Yesterday if you would have asked me if I think the Pirates would reach an agreement to extend Starling Marte's contract at some point during the 2014 season, I would have said absolutely not. I know that's true because Daniel Dudley asked me just that on TribLIVE Sports Radio last night.

Fortunately for us, I was wrong. The Pirates inked Marte to a 6 year, 31 million dollar deal, quite impressively at that. The deal buys out three years of his free agent years and will keep Marte with the team through the 2020 season.

If you're asking me, Marte was a bit foolish here. That's assuming that Marte cares primarily about money, which is by no means necessarily true. The guy might really love Pittsburgh and want to play here for a long time, and that's great. But it seems to me like Marte is going to be worth a lot more than $5 million a year pretty soon. There is the chance that Marte doesn't really turn out how we think he will, and in that case the Pirates may have made a mistake by jumping the gun on an unproven player, but that's pretty unlikely to happen just considering what we've seen from Marte the last three or so years.

After we heard that Marte had turned down two deals from the Pirates you really got the feeling that talks would cool off and we wouldn't hear about it again for the rest of the year, but the Pirates were cooperative and patient and got the right deal done.

The Pirates management has done a fantastic job recently. They signed a league MVP to a deal that pays him $14 million a year at the deal highest point. Now they have an all-star calibur outfield with a superstar-level ceiling to a deal that won't pay him more than $8 million a year at any point. Unreal.

I wrote this post about how the Pirates have never faced decisions like these in the past, with multiple young players that are well above average that are looking for multi-year deals. So far they've done as good a job as you can ask them.

The hope is now that Marte doesn't get complacent or content with where he's at and continues to do all he can to get better and turn into the player that he has the potential to turn into. It wasn't a problem with McCutchen, and from knowing what we know about Marte so far, I don't think it'll be a problem for him either.

News that everyone already knows about

Couple stories from the Pirates today, one that's been talked about all day long already and one that probably doesn't need to be talked about at all.

The Pirates cut Andrew Lambo this morning, which means he'll start the year in AAA Indianapolis, where he spent the majority of last year and frankly tore up the level. Lambo had a dismal spring and clearly wasn't very confident at the plate, so they're sending him to Indy to relax him a bit and try to get him back in some kind of groove at the plate.

Gregorious? Why Not

by Brandon Posa

When I first heard the rumor today that the Pirates and Diamondbacks may have been discussing a deal involving young shortstop Didi Gregorious, my first reaction definitely wasn’t “what about Jordy?!” The Diamondbacks seem to be scavenging for starting pitching due to the loss of Patrick Corbin, and the Pirates certainly have a lot of depth in those ranks—albeit not as much as they did last year. Let’s face facts: the Pirates have no long-term answer at shortstop beyond Jordy Mercer, because there are still doubts that remain that top prospect Alen Hanson has the range and arm strength to remain at shortstop for the long haul (many scouts have said that his likely calling in the majors is at second base). Jon mentioned in an earlier post that the Pirates and second baseman Neil Walker have both made efforts to come to terms on a long term deal, with no resolution as of yet. And, honestly, we have to wonder if Neil would be worth much more than whatever the Pirates have all ready offered him. He will become a free agent after the 2016 season at age 31, the same year as Pedro Alvarez. Personally, I believe Walker still has a lot left in the tank to be a productive, above-average second baseman, but it is hard to imagine him getting a true free agent deal from the Bucs after 2016; what I’m saying is that any deal with Walker should occur now to buy out his arbitration years for cost control, and then add a year or two by options or by permanent clauses.

Pirates entering unprecedented decision time

If you thought the Pirates being a competitive baseball team would be all sunshine and roses you were wrong.

Not only does it cost $80 to sit in section 315 for Opening Day, we are also nearing the time when some of the young talent that helped the Pirates bring the franchise back into relevancy are weighing the advantages of the dreaded free agency. Pirates fans have suffered the consequences of being a small market team in a big market world from one side of the spectrum already - the side where their team has no chance of signing any big name free agents to instantly add to their big league roster. Now we're faced with the side that makes it more appealing for the good players we already have to leave Pittsburgh for the biggest contracts.

The Pirates brilliantly dodged facing this issue with their franchise player Andrew McCutchen a couple years ago when they signed him for a pretty affordable $51.5 million contract the year before he really showed what he was capable of. They're now trying to pull the same thing with Starling Marte, but he and his agent aren't going for it. We learned recently that Marte has already rejected two extension offers from the Pirates, which honestly is probably in his best interest. There's a very good chance that Marte does what McCutchen does and puts up pretty monster numbers in one of the next three seasons and instantly sees his free agent value skyrocket. For his bank account's purposes, signing now would be a horrible idea - especially with what the Pirates probably offered him already.

The Jameson Taillon scare

Tim Williams of Pirates Prospects was my first Twitter follower. That was back in the day when his site was called B.U.C.C.O FANS and nobody knew why Bucco was made into an acronym. If I remember correctly he had a few hundred followers and was just starting out. Now he runs what is probably the #1 Pirates site on the web and has made it his full time job. It's been pretty cool to see the insane amount of success that he's had. Now he's the main source for Pirates prospects news and analysis, and he broke a pretty terrifying story this morning concerning top pitching prospect Jameson Taillon.

Apparently Jameson Taillon is being shut down for two weeks with elbow discomfort, which is about as scary a headline as you could read. The good news is that it's just a little bit of discomfort and they're just shutting him down for precautionary reasons. He isn't expected to miss a significant amount of time. However, you never want to hear about any level of elbow pain from your pitchers, because those issues can tend to linger and then turn into something serious. It seems like every major league pitchers and their mother have had Tommy John surgery, so it's not something that teams really try to avoid. You'd hate to see that happen to a high profile pitcher like Taillon, because it basically knocks you out for a calendar year. That's big time speculation, and there's no signs that Taillon is anywhere near needing such a procedure, but those are the thoughts that pop into your head when you read a story like this.

Pirates spring training stats mean...

Everyone says that spring training don't matter in baseball. What's funny about that is that most of the time that's said to make people feel better about a guy playing poorly in spring. If some guy is having a monster spring, you never see people being rational saying that the stats don't matter, they automatically plan for that guy to have a huge regular season as well. But when a guy is having a bad spring, they'll just sit there and shrug it off. That's how we are in a lot of facets of life - we're very selective in what we hear and what we choose to believe. Without getting too philosophical, let's talk about all this.

The reasoning behind the limited stock taken in spring training stats makes sense. First of all, everybody is getting back up to speed, it's the first time in a number of months that any of them see big league level pitching, and you can't just expect them to be back where they normally are. The same goes for the pitchers throwing to them, they aren't at the top of their game or even necessarily trying to get batters out as a main priority. In that sense, yeah, the stats aren't really going to tell you much. Also, it is a fairly small sample. Spring goes for about a month, and the main guys don't play every day either, so you basically three weeks of games worth of data which will never tell you very much no matter when you take them from. I'm sure if you went and did a huge study on the correlation of spring numbers against regular season numbers you wouldn't see much connection.

THAT SAID, what Andrew Lambo and Edinson Volquez are doing this spring is telling. If you're telling me that Lambo's approach is different because it's spring I'd say you're crazy. The guy is up there trying to do what he always does, he's trying to hit the ball hard, and he isn't doing it. Here's the stats for Mr. Lambo:

Five Prospects to Watch in 2014

by Brandon Posa

For as long as I can remember, there has been nothing more exciting to me than following the PIrates minor league system. As much as I thoroughly enjoy watching the big club night after night, there are some times where I find myself actually enjoying checking up on how the young guys on the farm are doing. Tim William's Pirates Prospects literally became like a dream come true, as it got even easier to find up-to-date statistics and reports on both the big-time players and the depth options alike.

Even though at any given time throughout the season and the winter, it would be easy for someone like me to put together a current Top-10 list of Buccos prospects, I still get excited like it's Christmas when the big outlets produce their "official" lists after the New Year. It's very exciting to me to see how the national pundits view the system, who they believe is on the cusp of breaking out, and who fans in Pittsburgh should be prepared to see that summer.

Now make no mistake: it's just as exciting, to me, to follow Gregory Polanco's wonderful rise through the system, as it was hoping that Yoslan Herrera would somehow make it to the big leagues and be, oh, a potential number 3 starter in the rotation (sounds like someone from the 2002 draft). Just below, Jon wrote about how Gerrit Cole is "primed" to build off of his success rookie campaign and continue developing into the ace that Pirates fans dreamt of when he was drafted first overall in 2011. This summer, expectations are all around that Polanco and right-hander Jameson Taillon will be graduating to Pittsburgh sometime after June 1. There is reason to be excited, but not just because of the big names that are thrown around all the time. How about the guys in the lower levels that aren't discussed much beyond the diehard fans? Based upon my own opinions, as well as the reports that come from a variety of sources, here is my Top 5 list of prospects that I am most excited to follow this year:

Gerrit Cole "primed for big season"

Earlier today I saw an article from a scouting website that said that Gerrit Cole was "primed to have a big season". The article included an interview with Cole, which I am almost positive the entire article was based off of. I would know more about it, but it was one of those stupid sites where you have to have a paid membership just to read their stuff and nobody's really going to do that.

One of my biggest beefs with sports articles is that they actually take what an athlete says as meaningful. Gerrit Cole says he's in the best shape of his life and he feels like he's going to strike out a million batters this year? Get hyped, Pittsburgh! Imagine a professional athlete having self confidence and not wanting to exude a lack of trust in themselves to the media and all their fans, insanity.

At this point, I'm not even sure why they bother interviewing players, at least in terms of asking about how they're feeling or how they expect to perform. You get the same exact answer every time. Andrew McCutchen thinks he can win MVP this year, and if you're going by interviews alone, so does Clint Barmes.

The fact is that Gerrit Cole has one of the best arms in the league and to me he's the number one reason to be excited to watch the Pirates this year. He's not fully developed yet, he still has some work to do in terms of not relying so heavily on his upper 90's fastball, but watching him improve as last year went on was just an indicator of what he might turn in to as early as this year. Show me the numbers, show me the highlights, but leave the player's commentary out of it.

Wanna get pissed?

A Fun Comparison Between Andrew McCutchen & Barry Bonds

by Brandon Posa

Heading into the 2014, Pirates center fielder Andrew McCutchen is reigning king. He's fresh off an MVP award, one which came a season after he was a runner up for the award. He has a gold glove, two silver sluggers, three all star appearances, and the ultimate Swagger. Since his call up to the big leagues in June 2009, Cutch has become a fan favorite, electrifying the new wave of Pirates fans that have come through the gates of PNC Park.

An interesting thing I had been thinking about was the early career of former Pirates outfielder Barry Bonds. Similarly to McCutchen, Bonds was highly touted, highly athletic, and highly successful in his career with the Pirates. He later went on to take the Home Run Crown amid his steroid allegation; but while just focusing on his time with the Bucs, those seasons were truly enjoyable for Pirates fans. As I was a 90s kid, I wasn't able to start watching and understanding until after he was gone (but well before big-bopper Johnny Van Benschoten was drafted as a pitcher). I thought it would be kind of interesting though to take this generation's superstar in Cutch, and compare his statistics so far with Bonds' at the same point in his career. Now this is merely for fun and water-cooler talk: I'm not saying that McCutchen is Bonds, is better than Bonds, or anything of the like.

As a refresher, the seasons compiled for Bonds are 1986-1990; for McCutchen, it's 2009-2013 (statistics were compiled from Baseball Reference; click on the charts to expand and have a better view of the statistics):
Bonds:


McCutchen:

In some of the key, old-school statistics, it's pretty interesting to see how close the two are in terms of career totals: McCutchen has the advantaged in total hits, doubles, triples, and RBIs, while Bonds has a slim lead in total home runs by 14. Bonds has a fairly significant advantage in the stolen base department, which is one area McCutchen has stated numerous times that he will strive to get better in. Even when comparing their OPS' and WAR, the two are close: Bonds had a career-OPS thus far of .835, trailing McCutchen's .869, while Bonds has the WAR advantage, 32.1-26.3. As a Pirates fan, it's obviously pretty cool to see our best player now in McCutchen having similar or superior statistics to one of the best outfielders to ever roam in Pittsburgh in Bonds. It definitely makes you wonder where McCutchen will rank in the all-time great outfielders for the organization when he hangs up his spikes.

What do these statistics say? No, this doesn't mean that in just a few years McCutchen is going to start reaching home run totals of 50+. For one, it means that both players were both very special talents in their first few years in a Pirates uniform. We all know what type of career Bonds went on to have, but even if his home run totals were not completely jacked up, he still would have been one of the best outfielders to play during the last 25 years. If he can stay on this same career progression, McCutchen is destined to carry the same recognition someday. McCutchen will forever be remembered as the center piece and pillar of the magical 2013 season, and complete turnaround of the Pirates organization. In fifteen more years, he could be remembered for bringing the first NL Pennant to Pittsburgh since 1979, winning multiple MVP awards for the first time since Bonds, and many other noteworthy achievements. I guess the biggest takeaway from these numbers is quite simple: enjoy Andrew McCutchen. His very team-friendly deal allows him to stay with the Pirates currently until 2018. If we're lucky, the front office could hopefully offer a similar deal that Evan Longoria signed with the Tampa Bay Rays a few years back, allowing McCutchen to play the entirety of his prime years in Pittsburgh, and hopefully longer. The Pirates are definitely doing the right thing, in terms of a small market team, in preparing future successors in the outfield, but McCutchen may just be special enough to not only warrant staying in Pittsburgh for a long time, but his desire to stay in Pittsburgh may equal that.

Opening Day tickets

Opening Day of baseball season has been of my favorite days of the year for quite some time. Now we're less than two weeks away from this year's Opening Day, and this one's a lot different than the rest.

I believe I've gone to five Pirates Opening Days in my life, and I don't believe I had ever paid more than $35 for a ticket. Until this year. I wasn't planning on going to the game this year, I was just going to go to work and miss the game. However, I fortunately (maybe) got the night shift that week (something I have to do on occasion for my job), so I was fully available from 1-6 on March 31st. How exciting, right?

I told my buddies this, and we set off to find tickets. Next thing I know I'm handing over more than $80 for a seat in section 316. You used to be able to start in right field for $80. Now you can't even see the field.

Making the playoffs and being competitive is great and all, but it's a real bummer when it comes to going to the games. Sure, Opening Day is probably the most in-demand game of the year, but I never imagined a day when I would have to pay $80 to see a Pirate game from the 300 levels.

You got on sites like StubHub and look for seats and the first 100 some results are Standing Room Only's for $50-$60. First of all, how many standing room tickets can they sell? And how early do you have to get in to the stadium to claim your spot to stand at for 6 hours just to see the game in the (probably cold) late March weather? Doesn't sound all that great.

All said and done, money isn't everything, and as always it'll feel real good to be back at PNC Park watching the Pirates play again, especially since we can legitimately have positive hopes for the team this year and not feel stupid about it. And at the end of the day, it could always be worse, I could be this guy.

Options aplenty coming out of spring training

by Brandon Posa

The word out of Bradenton today is that the Pirates may be willing to shop around outfielders Jose Tabata and Travis Snider. The Pirates front office clearly has to be pleased with the progress that top prospect Gregory Polanco had shown while in Major League camp, as well as his success playing winter ball. As long as he starts out well with Indianapolis, it's easy to see Polanco roaming right field in Pittsburgh by the middle of June this season. This isn't any breaking news, but it's something that needs to be thought about with the excess amount of outfielders the Pirates could have come the middle of the summer.

The inevitable call up of Polanco will create a logjam of outfielders on the big league club. Tabata is owed $12+ million, while Snider is still in his arbitration years. If everything goes according to plan, there are simply no starting spots in the future for both guys, as Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte, and Polanco are the future of the Buccos' outfield. That being said, it would certainly be nice to have one of these two bats coming off the bench as the fourth outfielder for the next few years, so it will be interesting to see which direction they decide to go. The mantra that is heard across every camp, every year is that one player is "in the best shape of his life," or looks "hungrier" than ever before; Snider has fit that role this spring, all the while collecting 8 hits in 26 at-bats so far, while Tabata has seen his share of struggles at the plate with only three hits as of March 17. A platoon in right field has been the default solution this winter, but if Snider proves that he is able to handle a starting spot until Polanco is ready, then it may be time to see if a package can be created around a cost-controlled Tabata for either another first baseman, catching depth (now that Chris Stewart may be destined for surgery), or however else the front office sees fit.

In addition, reliever Vin Mazzaro is rumored to be the odd man out of the Bucs' 7-man bullpen. Heading into the Spring, Jason Grilli, Mark Melancon, Tony Watson, and Justin Wilson were all locks due to their performance last season. With three spots left, the Bucs had four possible pitchers to fill those spots: Stolmy Pimentel, Bryan Morris, Jeanmar Gomez, and Mazzaro. All four are out of options, so the only choices are to make the team, be traded, or be cut. The potential of both Pimentel and Morris is just too much to give up on right now, as both could be late-inning power guys, fill the long-relief role, or even make the occasional spot start. In 80.2 innings last year, Gomez contributed 8 starts for the Pirates, as well as sported a WHIP of 1.15, compared to Mazzaro's 73.2 innings and a 1.20 WHIP. Both pitchers are comparable in the sense that it is not difficult for Neal Huntington & company to pluck these types of pitchers out from the market; with that being said, it's even easier to replace a guy like Mazzaro, despite his great statistics from last season. This is just the type of problem that a small market team like the Pirates wishes they could have every year, with every position on the roster. Depth is crucial for every team, as evidenced last season by the Buccos use of 12 starting pitchers during the regular season. The Pirates have shown recently that they can effectively create a successful bullpen out of a collection of low-profile guys, and then when there are too many competing for jobs, move one or more for other necessary pieces for the club and/or depth. Time will tell to see if there are any interested bidders in the next 13 days before the 2014 season opens up.

The Pirates best offseason addition

So last year the Pirates made the playoffs for the first time in twenty years. In those two decades, the Pirates were more often compared to a AAA team than a team that had any real shot at making a run at the World Series. But that all ended last year and now we're on to a new era of Pirates baseball.

So what did the Pirates to do to start it all off? They got rid of their AAA featured soft drink and promoted themselves into the big leagues. This year when you go the ball yard and need some refreshment, you'll be buying Coca Cola, which is fantastic news.

Listen. Pepsi sucks. It's always sucked. You'll go to a restaurant and ask for a Coke and if by chance you're in a really bad restaurant, you'll get the old "is Pepsi okay?". Most people aren't complete assholes and they'll just agree to drink the inferior product, which is nice of them, but I really think sometimes in life you gotta look out for yourself and just disappointedly ask for an iced tea or something.

If you're going to pay $73 for a hot dog and a soft drink, you might as well get something that doesn't taste like shit, and at PNC Park this summer you'll be able to do just that. Enjoy it Pirate happiness fans.

Andrew Lambo and quiet offseasons

So I really like playing basketball. I played in high school, I played a lot of intramural in college, and I recently competed in a Pittsburgh Sports League. When I was a kid I was really into it and imagined being in the NBA and all that crap. Through high school I grew up mentally a lot more than physically and now, here I sit at 23 being a skinny 5'9'' white guy. At some point you have to realize that when your parents tell you that you can be anything you want to be, they aren't being truthful. Pound for pound, I'm pretty decent at baseball, but life isn't pound for pound. And neither is Major League Baseball.

I think that story is important for Pirate fans. Baseball isn't a fair sport. It really sucks rooting for a small market team, frankly I'm not sure why anybody ever does it. The Pirates finally rewarded some of their fans loyalties last year, but before that is was pretty miserable. You consciously took the short stick, but despite that, you still get upset when the obvious consequences of having that short stick show up? Grow up. I can't get to the NBA in this body and the Pirates can't play in free agency. It's the same exact thing, there are literally no differences between the two things I just described.

If that's all understood, why are people complaining about the Pirates not making a splash in free agency this year? They point to the Andrew Lambo/Gaby Sanchez platoon at first base and bring back the old comments about how terrible Pirates management is - obviously it's not on the same scale but it's still there. What's wild is that I saw that stuff consistently the last few months without trying to pay any attention to Pirates talk. I don't listen to 93.7, I unfollowed the majority of Pirates tweeters, and none of my friends are the people I described. Unless it's a coincidence, I think there was a ton of negativity out there.

My first question is why do the Pirates have to have a good player at every position? No team has that. If you look at the depth chart they're pretty solid at catcher, second base, third base, and two of the three outfield spots. That along with a pretty decent pitching staff and bullpen are a pretty good start. You can see that team being competitive, right? The best teams in the league have weak spots, 9 positions is a lot to fill all with really good players. I have a super cool personality, so I think it's fair that 90% of guys my age can lift more weight than me. Seems like a fair tradeoff to me, I'm not complaining.

My other question, who really was available? The names we heard (once again, I didn't pay as much attention this offseason) were Ike Davis, James Loney, and Mitch Moreland. We heard the Mets were asking a pretty penny for Ike Davis, a guy who hit .205/.326/.334, not sure why you'd be too anxious to give up much for those numbers. Mitch Moreland was even worse at .232/.299/.437 last year. Not sure why anybody would be excited about paying that guy actual money for numbers that you could see Andrew Lambo replicating without issue. The only one that you can argue is that they didn't push hard enough for James Loney, who signed back with the Rays for $7 million a year for three years. Twenty million dollars is a lot for a small market team to invest, obviously the Rays are in a similar boat that the Pirates are, and they thought it was worth it, but I'm not going to be upset about letting Loney go somewhere else for that much money.

My point is, there weren't obviously better options out there that would have warranted spending the money. The first base position isn't going to determine where the Pirates go this year. Andrew Lambo has the potential to be better than all three of those options this year, and they don't have to pay him. Makes sense to me just to let him have a crack at platooning with Gaby Sanchez. The Pirates money is better spent elsewhere. That's how they've been doing things the last five years and it's gotten them to a pretty competitive spot.

One pitch Cole

Don't you hate it when you're playing fantasy sports and someone wants to make a trade with you but then they're a total ass about it? Maybe my high school friends are just nincompoops, but I can't tell you how much frustration I've gone through with them trying to work out deals. Today, I get a text from my buddy (let's call him Steve... cause that's his name) saying he needed an upgrade in his utility spot, which is a little bit of a stupid request in the first place, but I let him slide there. He asked me what I would be looking for in a trade, and I told him I could use an extra starting pitcher that doesn't suck as much behind as Dan Haren. So he said that he would be willing to trade Gerrit Cole, which I responded positively too, mainly because I really like watching the guy pitch, and he obviously has a ton of upside. In an ideal world, the person that initiated the trade talks should probably come up and offer some kind of rough draft deal for you to start working with, but STEVE over there wasn't having any of it. He just went straight into asking me who I would want exactly and who I would be willing to give up. Don't you hate that? It's like someone coming to you asking to borrow some toilet paper, but then asking you to drive to their house to deliver too. Greedy.

In our opening discussions about Gerrit Cole, I did my best to talk him down a bit on Cole's stock. Any idiot who follows baseball knows that the guy has stuff that you just don't see very often, but fantasy baseball is a "what can you do for me right now" sport, so potential doesn't always factor in. My best plan of attack to lowering Cole's stock in Steve's mind was to go straight his pitch selection. Here's what pitches Cole threw last year:


Cole has one of the best fastballs in the league, nobody would dispute that. But you don't see many pitchers that get away with throwing one pitch anywhere near 80% of the time like Cole did last year, and for good reason. I'm no Joe Kerrigan here, but I'm saying that if a big league hitter sees a really good pitch enough, he'll figure out a way to hit it pretty hard. That doesn't bode well for Cole.

The good news is that the Pirates have a history with making their young pitchers throw a ton of fastballs. Their first few years in the minors are very tightly focused on throwing the fastball for strikes. There's good reason for that, and there's no evidence that it doesn't work. It wasn't a surprise that Cole avoided his offspeed pitches last year, and there is no way that we'll see him continue in that trend as he matures. He will absolutely throw more sliders and changeups as he progresses, which will probably be a very good thing for him considering how effective those pitchs can be, potentially. He put up great numbers with his slider and changeup last year, which was probably highly influenced by the fact that they were so rarely coming at hitters. There was solid evidence at the end of the year that Cole could mix it up and be very successful in the process.

Cole had one of his best starts of the season on September 19th against the Padres when he struck out 12 batters in six innings, allowing four hits and a lone run. Here's the pitch distribution for that start:

Pitch	Percentage
4-Seam Fastball	41%
2-Seam Fastball	19%
Changeup	9%
Slider	13%
Curveball	17%

In that start, he threw about 60% fastballs, which is much closer to where the average big league starter is at. That was Gerrit's highest strikeout performance of the year, which certainly isn't a coincidence.

The question for 2014 becomes if Gerrit Cole can learn to mix his pitches and stay ahead of big league hitters. The fastball alone can keep him in the majors for years, but if he's going to meet the ace potential we've all heard about, he's going to need to fully develop the change and one of the breaking pitches. It will be interesting to see what pitch selection Cole and his counterparts go with early on in the year and how it progresses. I'll be keeping a close eye on that right here on the newly risen from death mceffect.(blogspot.)com.

Still working on the banner and stuff btw.

Back into it

So it's been since October of 2012 that I was serious about blogging/writing about the Pittsburgh Pirates. Throughout the 2013 season I can't say I missed it, it was a refreshing year off, especially with me graduating from college and trying to get my life figured out and whatnot. Apparently I picked a pretty bad season to skip out on - I heard the Pirates made the playoffs or something last year. Regardless, I'm almost sure that I want to get back into it now. I still don't have my life figured out, but I have a full time job downtown and still have a good amount of free time, and frankly I'm attention starved. So let's talk about the Pirates again.

I can't promise that the blog is going to get back to its former glory days (if it ever even had glory days), I wouldn't expect many game recaps or news reports or anything like that. Why you want those things from a non professional blog is beyond me anyways, that's information you can literally get anywhere. I'm also not trying to make a career out of this anymore, so it's going to be significantly less formal and significantly more edgy. I think that'll help it. Basically I just want to provide some insight, intelligent or not, that's original and interesting. I'm also not going to care if you yell at me, so feel free to do that.

Baseball is just too good of a thing for me to stay away from for too long. I think it'll be a fun summer. Posts coming soon.

Oh, and just ignore the blog header for now. The McEffect brand isn't going away, even though there really is only one significant Mc left on the team. I'll fix all the visuals later.

Also, if anybody wants to help, I'm still all about contributing writers. And if anybody knows why mceffect.com is unavailable for purchase or how I could get that back, let me know. I'm on twitter at @JonPGH.