Stop Signing Starters

The Pirates had a historically bad pitching season in 2010. So far this offseason, they have countered that by signing Scott Olsen and Kevin Correia. There were reports on Wednesday and Thursday that the Pirates were close to a deal with the Braves that would bring pitcher Kenshin Kawakami to Pittsburgh.

Now no deal has been made yet, but I am going to write the rest of this post assuming that the Pirates do acquire him. I'll leave the stats and predictions out of it until they do make the deal, for now I just want to say a couple more general things.

After the Olsen and Correia acquisitions, I wasn't completely satisfied. I really wanted to see the Pirates get a high-ceiling guy, even if it meant risking some bigger money in it. I wrote posts about my interest in Justin Duscherer and Brandon Webb, but the Pirates chose a different route. Now I'm not going to come out and say that it was the wrong thing to do, no one can say that for sure. There's no telling what the future holds, Duscherer and Webb could both continue with their injury problems and cost whatever team that signs them some money for little return.

That said, there's little doubt in my mind that the pitching signings the Pirates have been making are done to try and get us through the 2011 season without losing 100 games again. If you think that Correia, Olsen, and Kawakami are going to push the Pirates over the mountain they are trying to climb and get them into the playoff picture, you're nuts. Heck, even if they would have signed Webb and Duscherer and enjoyed injury-free, productive seasons from them, they still would have trouble finishing .500, there would be a legitimate chance at doing it, but it would be in no way a sure thing.

I understand this thinking. The fans can't take many more of these brutal seasons, the Pirates have to show improvement eventually and get some more people interested. Correia, Olsen, Kawakami, and Matt Diaz definitely make us a better major league ballclub.

However, the focus still has to be on the future, and the future is not any of those guys. Correia got a two-year deal, so he could be a small part, but he surely isn't a guy the Pirates think will be with them down the road. The Pirates don't have much of a chance to compete in 2011, so they should be using the season to continue to develop their young players at the major league level, much like they did in 2010 with Tabata, Alvarez, and Walker. However, when you sign 3 big league starters to deals of 2 years or less, and 2 of the 3 are over the age of 30, it seems to me that you are blocking some of the younger guys.

2011 is going to be crucial year for the Pirates to see what they have in Charlie Morton and Brad Lincoln. Neither of these pitchers have had much success at the big league level, but they also haven't really had a fair amount of chances (especially Lincoln). They both have the tools to be established major league pitchers, they just need some more time. The best way to help these guys get closer to where they need to be is get them innings in the majors. There's a very good chance that neither of these guys will ever make it in the major leagues, but it would be very unwise to not give them the chance they deserve.

The Pirates are not going to be in the playoff hunt in 2011, so it is the perfect time to get a long, serious look at Lincoln and Morton in Pirates uniforms. Correia and Kawakami are going to expect to be in the rotation as long as they are healthy and pitching well, as they should since they have been successful in the majors before. The Pirates already owe spots in the rotation to James McDonald, Ross Ohlendorf, and Paul Maholm (although it appears the Pirates are seriously shopping Maholm around). That leaves only 2 spots available, one that already has Correia's name on it. The last spot should go to either Morton or Lincoln out of spring training, but if the Pirates sign Kawakami, they will be pressured to start him instead of one of those two guys, and consequently hurting the future of the Pirates.

That was a long, repetitive, rant there... but it really comes down to this:

I don't want the Pirates to sign the 36-year old Kawakami because it will take playing time away from Lincoln and Morton, both of whom actually have a chance to help the Pirates when it really matters, in 2012 and beyond.