Morton:
Charlie had big expectations coming into the 2010 season. Pirate fans were looking for him to become one of the best pitchers in the rotation and solidify himself as a solid 2-3 starter for the next handful of years. However, Morton did not answer the call. He was never even in the same room as the phone. His numbers were awful. It hurts me to even write them. He was 2-12 with a 7.57 ERA, a 1.732 WHIP, giving up 12.7 hits per nine innings, all in 17 starts. Now that looks bad, but I'm gonna do my best to make it sound a little better.
Most of those bad numbers were constructed in his first 10 starts of the season, before he was demoted. In those first 10 starts, he was 1-9 with a 9.35 ERA and a .342 batting average against. His BABIP was extremely high at .362 but that was largely attributed to the fact that hitters were squaring the ball up very easily and hitting it hard. At this point in the season Morton was statistically the worst pitcher in the major leagues, by far. The Pirates had no choice but to demote him to triple-A Indianapolis. He started off pretty rough there as well, but eventually bounced back and pitched pretty well and got called back up to the majors in late August.
From August 29th to the end of the season, Morton went 1-3 with a 5.45 ERA and a .319 batting average against. Okay, those numbers are lousy as well, but he showed definite improvement.
A huge part of Morton's 2010 season was bad luck. Now more skeptical fans say that's just being too optimistic and trying to cover up the obvious inability of Morton, and those fans definitely have a standing in that position, but they are going against proven statistics. Morton struck out 6.7 batters per 9, which is respectable (but not really helpful last year considering the short outings he had), and his walks per nine was at 2.9, not terrible either. Morton's xFIP for the year was 4.26, which is incredible considering his 7.57 ERA. I don't know for a fact, but I'm sure that that's one of the biggest ERA-xFIP differentials in the major leagues in a long time. Basically that says that Morton gave up over 3 more runs per nine innings than he should have because of bad luck, poor defense, and park conditions. Morton's 2010 WAR (wins above replacement) was -0.1, which means that his performance was equal to a good triple-A pitcher. Most fans would have said that he was much, much worse than a triple-A player in 2010, but the sabermetrics say differently.
So am I saying that Morton wasn't a terrible major league pitcher last year? No, he most certainly was. What I am saying is that he wasn't as bad as his numbers say he was. Now his numbers were so bad that saying that doesn't really mean much. However, he pitched well enough in the minors after his demotion and in the majors after his promotion to earn another look in 2011. Also, Morton pitched well in fall league. The Bill James predictions for 2011 have Morton posting 6.51 K/9, 3.64 BB/9, a .321 BABIP, and a 4.50 ERA. I'll take those numbers any day in the year following the disaster that was Morton's 2010 season.
Brad Lincoln:
Lincoln had his much anticipated major league debut in 2010, and like the rest of the Pirates pitching staff, didn't impress anybody. He went 1-4 with a 6.66 ERA, a 1.538 WHIP, giving up 11.3 H/9, striking out 4.3 batters per 9, and walking 2.6 batters per nine. He had 4 'quality starts' in his 9 starts, giving up the maximum 3 runs in the minimum 6 innings 3 of those 4 times.
There was nothing absolutely terrible about Lincoln in 2010, so that's the good news. The bad news is that there was really nothing really good about him either. He had one start in Chicago where he shut out the Cubs for 7 innings and struck out 6 batters, but that was the only start that got anybody excited about him. The weird part about Lincoln is that he lost some velocity upon his promotion. He was throwing 93-95 in triple-A, but in the majors his fastball's average velocity was 91.6. Don't ask me how or why that happened, but it did and Lincoln is going to have to keep that velocity up in the mid 90's if he wants to be a good major leaguer.
Lincoln is still young and still has minor league statistics that say he can be a good major league starter, but what I saw from him last year doesn't make me want to see him in a Pirates uniform ever again. However, you can't judge much of anything from a big league starter in only 9 starts, so he also deserves another look.
So I've said the same things about both of these pitchers. They both struggled in 2010, but for their own individual reasons, they both deserve more playing time in the majors. The question is, who deserves it more? With Ross Ohlendorf, James McDonald, Kevin Correia, and Paul Maholm penciled in as the 1-4 starters, which of these two guys should take the 5 spot?
For me, it comes down to their "stuff". The pitches they throw and how effective they are. Here's each pitcher's pitch F/X and the pitch results.
Morton:
Lincoln:
The stuff advantage clearly goes to Morton. Keeping in mind that Lincoln has a really small sample size, Morton has better whiff rates, better movement on his pitches, and better velocity. Those 3 things are pretty vital to a major league pitcher.
Bottom line, I think the Pirates owe both of these pitchers major league innings in 2011, but I think Morton should get the first crack at it and be in the opening day starting rotation.