Can Neil Walker Repeat?

2010 was not a good season for the Pittsburgh Pirates, in fact it was one of the worst seasons in recent memory. However, it did not go without some positives. If you're asking me, the biggest positive for the Pirates in 2010 was the play of Neil Walker, who moved to second base at the beginning of the year and hit well enough in AAA to earn a call up in late May. In just over 4 months of play, Walker performed well enough to finish 5th in the Rookie of the Year voting.

The season started with Akinori Iwamura at second base, which excited some people at the beginning of the year, but Iwamura could not have played much worse and was demoted for Walker after less than 2 months. The Pirates signed Iwamura because they really did not have any other options at second base that were anywhere close to the big leagues. However, Walker's athleticism let him transition to second base quickly and his bat heated up and gave the Pirates a great option at the position that they never thought they had before.

In 43 games in AAA, Walker hit .321/.392/.560 with 6 HR and 26 RBI. He was hitting the ball hard and to the right places, as 26 of his 54 hits went for extra bases.

In 110 games with the Pirates, Walker hit .296/.349/.462 with 12 HR and 66 RBI. Walker continued in his success hitting for extra bases, as 44 of his 126 hits went for extra bases (35%).

Walker was a former first round pick, so it's not like nobody ever thought he could put up these kinds of numbers in the major leagues before. However, he struggled mightily in his first 4 seasons in the system, and many Pirate fans had written him off well before his call-up this year. Even when he got the call up, most people weren't expecting much out of him. He had shown the ability to hit in AAA, but was never consistent with it.

The consistency fact brings us to the question of if Walker can repeat his big league success again 2011. Being that he is a Pirate, it would not be any surprise to anyone to see him completely fall off next year and be back in the minors by the end of the year. However, if you are reading this blog, you are probably a more educated and rational baseball fan, so let's be smart and look at some numbers that can help us determine his future.

Walker's 2010 major league BABIP was .340, which is higher than the average, but Walker was an above average hitter in his time with Pittsburgh. Also, .340 isn't too extreme and that fact is encouraging.

Walker had a 7.2 walk percentage in 2010, which is extremely low (the top hitters in the league sit around 11%-15%), and a 19.5 strikeout percentage, which is too high (the top hitters in the league are easily under 15%). Those are discouraging, but should improve as he matures as a big league hitter (especially the walk percentage).

Probably the most encouraging sign of Walker's 2010 campaign was his 22.4 line drive percentage. That number was highest on the team and in the top 10 in the big leagues, up there with guys like Joe Mauer, James Loney, Josh Hamilton, Austin Jackson, and Derrek Lee. That shows that when Walker hit the ball, he was squaring it up and hitting it with authority. He wasn't getting many bloop hits or well placed weakly hit ground ball hits, he was seeing the ball well and hitting it on the screws.

Walker's defense leaves a lot to be desired, but should continue to improve because of his athleticism and isn't a major concern anyway since he plays at second base. Even if Walker regresses a little bit in 2011 (which he most likely will), he is still an above average bat at second base, which is a big boost for the Pirates since they majorly lack offensive production at shortstop, catcher, and right field.

The numbers suggest that Walker's 2010 season was not a fluke, and that he should be a solid starting second baseman for years to come.