2011 Starting Rotation Speculation

Zach Duke was the Pirates opening day starter in 2010. Yesterday, Duke was DFA'd after going 8-15 with a 5.72 ERA and a .321 batting average against. Those are probably some of the worst numbers that any opening day starter has put up in a long time. Judging by the statistics, it makes all the sense in the world to get rid of somebody like that. However, the Pirates aren't exactly deep with major league ready pitching, so there is a lot to be talked about with this move and the immediate future of the starting rotation. Let's start at the top.

James McDonald. My second favorite "Mc" on the team was really good with the Pirates in 2011 after he was brought over here in July with Andrew Lambo for Octavio Dotel. McDonald was 4-5 with a 3.52 ERA and an 8.6 K/9 ratio. Those numbers were all better than his career averages before that, so you can't read too much into them. However, the strikeouts are definitely something to get you excited. McDonald's season batting average against was .260, which is very impressive. Another interesting point is that McDonald's 2010 BABIP was .330, which is pretty high for a guy that was putting up the solid numbers he was. He does have some control problems at times and can walk a lot of batters, but the strikeouts alone make him a legitimate big league pitcher. He seemed to be rejuvenated when he came to Pittsburgh and he should continue to improve as he will be looked at as one of the top pitchers in the Pirates organization next year. I don't care where you come from, when you leave a job as a middle relief bullpen option (as he was in Los Angeles) to a top of the rotation starter, it definitely gives you extra motivation to succeed.

Ross Ohlendorf. The boss had some injury problems in 2010 and only started 17 games because of them. In those 17 starts, Ohlendorf was a pitiful 1-11. However, his ERA was 4.07, which definitely is not deserving of a 1-11 record. His FIP was 4.44, which shows that he was at least a little bit lucky with his ERA, but not too much that we should be worried. His strikeouts were low, at 6.4 per 9, but his walks were respectable at just under 3 per 9. He had a .317 BABIP, which is near average for a guy that pitches to contact like Ross did in 2010. We were expecting big things in 2010 from Ross because of his performance in the second half of the 2009 season (2.73 ERA, .204 BAA in the seasons final 2 months), and Ross didn't deliver. There's reason to believe that Ohlendorf can get it together and be a decent 3-4 option for the Pirates.

Paul Maholm. The best Pirates pitcher statistically, outside of the short sample we saw of James McDonald, was Paul Maholm. He went 9-15 with a 5.10 ERA. Pretty sad when you say a pitcher with a 5.10 ERA was your best pitcher. However, Maholm was not as bad as you'd think from those numbers, his FIP was 4.18 and his BABIP was .336. However, Maholm really was not a good pitcher. He had only 5.6 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9. He also had 6 starts where he gave up 5 or more earned runs. He was especially bad down the stretch with a 6.30 ERA in the final 2 months. Maholm wouldn't be in the rotation for many big leagues teams in 2011 with those numbers, but the Pirates are forced to rely on him. Right now, Maholm looks like the 3rd best starter on this Pirates team for opening day of 2011. However, that should change with some free agent signings and some mid season call-ups. If the sabermetrics are correct, Maholm wasn't as bad as he seemed last year, although he is another pitch to contact pitcher with a bad infield behind him, so things aren't looking good.

Those are the only 3 set in stone Pirate starters next year as of right now. The Pirates are going to be aggressive in signing a starter this offseason, and hopefully they'll find a way to get someone that can be a top 3 guy for the Pirates next year without having to give up too much money. We've all heard the rumors around Jorge De La Rosa, Justin Duscherer, and Jeff Francis, and any of those 3 guys would be a better option than, at least, Maholm, if not Ohlendorf, however there are other teams trying to acquire those guys as well and Pittsburgh isn't the most attractive destination right now, so we could easily lose out on them. Assuming the Pirates get somebody in free agency, the 5th spot will be open for competition in spring training. Some of the guys that will be competing for that spot are...

Brad Lincoln. Lincoln made him much anticipated MLB debut last season, but wasn't good at all as he went 1-4 with a 6.66 ERA in 9 starts. He had one really impressive start against Chicago where he went 7 scoreless innings and picked up his only big league win. However, the rest of the starts were bad and he finished his big league season surrendering 11.3 hits per 9, 2.6 walks per 9, and getting only 4.3 strikeouts per 9. There's no reason to give up on Lincoln yet, he still has the ability to be a major league starter. His ridiculously low strikeout ratio in the major leagues was not expected at all. It's unrealistic to think that this guy can strike out 8-9 batters per 9 innings, but 6-7 is certainly feasible in my opinion. Also, his fastball velocity really didn't show up in a Pirates uniform, so that should improve by a mph or two next year. Lincoln isn't ever going to be the top of the rotation option that we thought he could be when we took him in the first round, but there's no reason to write him off as a career minor league pitcher yet. He could turn into a 3-4 starter as soon as next season.

Charlie Morton. This is a guy that was expected to be one of the Pirates' best pitchers in 2010. He turned out to be one of the worst in the history of the organization. I'm not even going to post the numbers, just because of how ugly they were. However, he did get a call up late in the season and put up some decent starts. He improved his K/BB ratio and was able to get through some decent innings. Morton really can't be any worse than last year, and if he can figure out whatever made him so bad, he could be a factor in this years rotation. If he reaches that potential, he could be a #2 guy, but don't expect anything like that this year. He and Lincoln will be the two main competitors for the final rotation spot, with Morton having a slight advantage because of experience and age.

Jeff Karstens. Despite being the ugliest man in the league, Karstens was pretty reliable for the Pirates in 2010. He had a 4.92 ERA on the year, but he came up big for the Pirates a handful of times. Karstens had 11 starts where he gave up 2 or fewer earned runs. That's a lot. He is not a strikeout pitcher however, with a career 4.46 K/9 ratio. Karstens is not the guy you want to have to count on in your major league rotation, just because he really does not have starter-like stuff. It would be pretty disappointing to see Karstens in the opening day rotation, but at least he's shown the ability to be successful in the big leagues. I would definitely not mind him being a middle reliever for the Pirates next season.

Those three guys are the leading candidates for an opening day starting spot next year, but there are a couple other guys that will start the season in AAA that will be looking to take their jobs away from them a couple months into the season. Those guys are Rudy Owens, Bryan Morris, and Justin Wilson. Tune back next time to read about these guys.