So let's check out Ohlendorf's stats from his last two years in the big leagues:
Ross Ohlendorf was arguably the Pirates best starter last year. He was the only pitcher with an ERA under 4. Unfortunately, that's about the only good thing I am going to have to say about Ohlendorf in this particular post.
Don't get me wrong, I love Ross as a starter for the Pirates. I seriously believe that he will be in the rotation for years to come. That said, last year for Ohlendorf looks like it involved a ton of good luck.
First off, Ross had a BABIP of .265, which is extremely low. That doesn't happen very often with big league starters. This could be attributed to the fact that Ross throws a hard sinker ball and forces a ton of balls being pounded into the ground. The chances of getting an out on a ground ball are much higher than on a ball hit on a line or in the air. Therefore, Ohlendorf's BABIP will probably be under .300 a lot in his career, but I don't think it will ever be as low as it was last year again.
The second piece of bad news is that Ohlendorf's FIP was 4.72 in 2010. That's an amazing .8 points higher than his actual ERA. That shows that he wasn't as good as a pitcher as his numbers showed.
The good news it that Ohlendorf had a spectacular second half of the year. The last 3 months of the season Ross posted some very nice looking numbers: 3.35 ERA, 6.26 K/9, .246 BAA. Those numbers could be attributed to some increased velocity which we saw at times out of Ross in the second half. He really just seemed to get better and better as the year went on. That was very nice to see when a lot of the other starters seemed to be getting worse and worse.
All-in-all it was a strange year for Ohlendorf. His BABIP and FIP both showed shocking signs of good fortune, but just watching him pitch you could tell he is a legitimate big league arm. I really don't know what to peg Ohlendorf at this year, but I wouldn't bank on him keeping his ERA under 4 again.
My 2010 prediction for Ohlendorf: 13-11, 4.10 ERA, 5.70 K/9, 2.85 BB/9