2010 Lineup Forecast

Earlier this week I fired up my XBOX 360 and popped in MLB 2K9, which is a terrible game. However, it was the only option available for XBOX last year so I bought it. The only thing I really like about the game is the ability to download recent rosters off the internet. I threw in the ethernet cable and downloaded the Pirates current roster. I added Octavio Dotel manually (his virtual self actually asked for a lot less money than his real self), and I was all up to date and ready to go.

I started a new franchise with the Pirates and began the season. Before Opening Day rolled around, I had to set the lineups and the pitching rotation. While the rotation was pretty easy (I put McCutchen in the #5 spot), I had a couple different things to choose from with the lineup. Here's what I came up with:

1. Andrew McCutchen, CF
2. Akinori Iwamura, 2B
3. Garrett Jones, LF
4. Ryan Doumit, C
5. Lastings Milledge, LF
6. Jeff Clement, 1B
7. Andy LaRoche, 3B
8. Bobby Crosby, SS
9. Pitcher

The first, and most obvious issue, was who would start at shortstop. I chose Bobby Crosby to be my starter, however I probably would not make that same decision in real life. Crosby has better rankings on the game, and I was interested to play with him since he's a new Pirate, so that's why I chose him on the game. However, in real life I would be more likely to go with Cedeno. Granted, spring training has not even started yet and there is no way I could make the best decision right now, I feel like Cedeno brings more upside to the table. Crosby is statistically better defensively, and their offensive numbers are nearly identical. However, Cedeno is younger and just has more potential than Crosby. While I don't really like either of these guys to be the shortstop for a long time, of the two I would choose Cedeno.

The second problem I encountered were the issues with the 5-7 slots in the lineup. I was happy with Jones and Doumit going 3-4, but then I really didn't really know where to go from there. You normally want your power bats at 3-4-5, so I did consider batting Clement, who has more power than Milledge, in the 5 spot. In the end, however, I decided to put Milledge there. This will be Clement's first real season in the major leagues, so we really have no clue what we have with him. We have a much better idea what we have with Milledge, and I feel confident in his abilities to drive in runs. Because of the questions I have with Clement, I started the season with Milledge in the 5. Now, if Clement shows that he is a legitimate power bat and has the ability to drive in runs, I would rather quickly move him up to the 5, or possibly even the 4. When you compare Andy LaRoche to those three, he is certainly the least threatening of the trio. He does have upside in terms of power, but we haven't seen enough of it to even consider batting him in the middle of the lineup yet. I think LaRoche is best served in the 7-hole for now, and I think if you compared him to the other #7 hitters in the league, he would rank pretty highly.

The final issue was at the top of the lineup. We have all heard speculation that McCutchen could be a #3 hitter. I'm not buying it right now. You want your speed at the top of the lineup, and while Iwamura could surely handle it, McCutchen is a much better option. While 'Cutch has the power to hit 20 homers, his speed and run-scoring ability is to great to consider removing him from the top of the lineup. His power certainly doesn't compare to that of Jones, Doumit, and Clement, so I'm going to say that 2010 is not the year for McCutchen to bat anywhere but lead off. That leaves Iwamura as the obvious #2 bat. In 2008, his last full year of play, Iwamura led off in all but 1 game he played in. In his limited time last year, he hit mainly at the bottom of the order, in the 7-9 slots. He has above average speed and gets on base at a decent clip, at .354 for his career. I think he fits the #2 hole very well for this lineup.

With the additions of Jeff Clement and Akinori Iwamura, the Pirates have a good amount of options when the injury bug comes. Ryan Doumit has been the main victim of that bug, so if (when) he gets hurt again, the lineup should be able to compensate with Clement and Milledge sliding up a slot, LaRoche moving to the #6 spot and Jaramillo filling in at the 7.

While our lineup really doesn't compare to the other teams in our division, I don't think it looks as bad as people think. We have 25+ homer potential in Jones, Doumit, and Clement, and I would honestly be kind of surprised if one of those guys doesn't get near it. We have great speed at the top with Cutch and Iwamura, and good upside with guys like LaRoche and Milledge. I'm not real concerned with what we get out of the shortstop, because it shouldn't be too much worse than what we've been getting from Jack Wilson for the last handful of years.

Bottomline is, if guys like Jones, Clement, and Milledge hit well this year and continue to get closer to their potential, I think the Pirates lineup could score enough runs to give us a shot at a winning season. The pitching will have to do their part to match up, and the chances of both of those things happening aren't too great, but I like where we are right now in the rebuilding process.