The Pirates had a historically bad pitching season in 2010. So far this offseason, they have countered that by signing Scott Olsen and Kevin Correia. There were reports on Wednesday and Thursday that the Pirates were close to a deal with the Braves that would bring pitcher Kenshin Kawakami to Pittsburgh.
Now no deal has been made yet, but I am going to write the rest of this post assuming that the Pirates do acquire him. I'll leave the stats and predictions out of it until they do make the deal, for now I just want to say a couple more general things.
After the Olsen and Correia acquisitions, I wasn't completely satisfied. I really wanted to see the Pirates get a high-ceiling guy, even if it meant risking some bigger money in it. I wrote posts about my interest in Justin Duscherer and Brandon Webb, but the Pirates chose a different route. Now I'm not going to come out and say that it was the wrong thing to do, no one can say that for sure. There's no telling what the future holds, Duscherer and Webb could both continue with their injury problems and cost whatever team that signs them some money for little return.
That said, there's little doubt in my mind that the pitching signings the Pirates have been making are done to try and get us through the 2011 season without losing 100 games again. If you think that Correia, Olsen, and Kawakami are going to push the Pirates over the mountain they are trying to climb and get them into the playoff picture, you're nuts. Heck, even if they would have signed Webb and Duscherer and enjoyed injury-free, productive seasons from them, they still would have trouble finishing .500, there would be a legitimate chance at doing it, but it would be in no way a sure thing.
I understand this thinking. The fans can't take many more of these brutal seasons, the Pirates have to show improvement eventually and get some more people interested. Correia, Olsen, Kawakami, and Matt Diaz definitely make us a better major league ballclub.
However, the focus still has to be on the future, and the future is not any of those guys. Correia got a two-year deal, so he could be a small part, but he surely isn't a guy the Pirates think will be with them down the road. The Pirates don't have much of a chance to compete in 2011, so they should be using the season to continue to develop their young players at the major league level, much like they did in 2010 with Tabata, Alvarez, and Walker. However, when you sign 3 big league starters to deals of 2 years or less, and 2 of the 3 are over the age of 30, it seems to me that you are blocking some of the younger guys.
2011 is going to be crucial year for the Pirates to see what they have in Charlie Morton and Brad Lincoln. Neither of these pitchers have had much success at the big league level, but they also haven't really had a fair amount of chances (especially Lincoln). They both have the tools to be established major league pitchers, they just need some more time. The best way to help these guys get closer to where they need to be is get them innings in the majors. There's a very good chance that neither of these guys will ever make it in the major leagues, but it would be very unwise to not give them the chance they deserve.
The Pirates are not going to be in the playoff hunt in 2011, so it is the perfect time to get a long, serious look at Lincoln and Morton in Pirates uniforms. Correia and Kawakami are going to expect to be in the rotation as long as they are healthy and pitching well, as they should since they have been successful in the majors before. The Pirates already owe spots in the rotation to James McDonald, Ross Ohlendorf, and Paul Maholm (although it appears the Pirates are seriously shopping Maholm around). That leaves only 2 spots available, one that already has Correia's name on it. The last spot should go to either Morton or Lincoln out of spring training, but if the Pirates sign Kawakami, they will be pressured to start him instead of one of those two guys, and consequently hurting the future of the Pirates.
That was a long, repetitive, rant there... but it really comes down to this:
I don't want the Pirates to sign the 36-year old Kawakami because it will take playing time away from Lincoln and Morton, both of whom actually have a chance to help the Pirates when it really matters, in 2012 and beyond.
Diaz vs. Bowker vs. Doumit vs. Milledge
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Right field is one of the positions the Pirates needed to address this offseason. They have done just that, as last night they acquired Matt Diaz, who was nontendered by the Braves a week ago. The Pirates already had nontendered Lastings Milledge, which was another option for right field in 2011, and they also have John Bowker and Ryan Doumit on the 40-man roster as of right now. Diaz, Bowker, and Doumit are the guys that would be playing right field for the Pirates, if next seasons started today. However, the Pirates are trying to unload Doumit, and have even offered to eat most of his salary to do it. Right now, I'm going to take a look at these 4 players at the plate, and in particular their splits off lefties and righties, because regardless of what happens, the Pirates are almost surely going to be platooning at right field in 2011.
Here are each players career, major league splits:
Matt Diaz:
Who is the best against right handed batters? From these numbers, it's Doumit. However, the flaw in all of this is that John Bowker has not had as much time in the big leagues as the rest of these guys. He has less than 600 plate appearances in his career, so we can't really get a good grasp of his big league hitting ability. His career minor league line is .303/.370/.501, with very good success against righties, so that shows some upside. If Bowker continues to progress, he could be much closer to Doumit in terms of hitting right handed pitching. He is also a better defender than Doumit, so he would probably get the nod from me on Opening Day. However, there is something to be said for Doumit. Most Pittsburghers are extremely tired of him and just want him to leave, but you can't ignore .797 OPS he's posted against righties in his career. That's very good for a catcher, not as good for a right fielder, but it definitely is good enough to earn some playing time there for the Pirates next season, if he's still on the team.
With that said, if both Doumit is still on the team come April, I would give Bowker most of the starts in right field with right handed pitchers on the mound for the first month or two, and see how it goes. If he struggles, I'd find more playing time for Doumit there. Bowker has more upside overall, so he would be my guy.
Who is the best against left handed batters? It's Diaz, and it's not close. Milledge has put up decent numbers against lefties in his career, but .289/.363/.435 in not a lot of playing time doesn't match up to .335/.373/.533 in a bunch of playing time. This one doesn't even need discussion with Milledge not on the roster anymore, but it definitely shows that the Pirates made the right move in losing Milledge and picking up Diaz.
If I were making the lineups, I would also implement a platoon at first base between Garrett Jones and Steve Pearce. Now I'm still hoping more moves are made so we can get better than we are right now, but if the season started tomorrow, and I was the manager, my lineups would look like this:
Against a right-handed pitcher:
1. Andrew McCutchen
2. Jose Tabata
3. Neil Walker
4. Pedro Alvarez
5. Garrett Jones
6. John Bowker
7. Chris Snyder
8. Ronny Cedeno
9. Pitcher
Against a left-handed pitcher:
1. Andrew McCutchen
2. Jose Tabata
3. Neil Walker
4. Pedro Alvarez
5. Steven Pearce
6. Matt Diaz
7. Chris Snyder
8. Ronny Cedeno
9. Pitcher
Now, substitute J.J. Hardy for Ronny Cedeno and you've got a decent looking lineup, and a potentially dangerous one if McCutchen, Tabata, Walker, and Alvarez continue to improve.
Here are each players career, major league splits:
Matt Diaz:
| Split | PA | HR | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP as RHB | 849 | 14 | .269 | .327 | .382 | .710 |
| vs LHP as RHB | 797 | 29 | .335 | .373 | .533 | .907 |
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com.
| Split | PA | HR | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP as LHB | 533 | 17 | .248 | .302 | .420 | .722 |
| vs LHP as LHB | 57 | 0 | .132 | .158 | .151 | .309 |
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com
| Split | PA | HR | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP as LHB | 1442 | 50 | .272 | .336 | .461 | .797 |
| vs LHP as RHB | 490 | 9 | .256 | .321 | .373 | .694 |
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com
| Split | PA | HR | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP as RHB | 1145 | 20 | .261 | .313 | .377 | .690 |
| vs LHP as RHB | 510 | 13 | .289 | .363 | .435 | .798 |
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com
Who is the best against right handed batters? From these numbers, it's Doumit. However, the flaw in all of this is that John Bowker has not had as much time in the big leagues as the rest of these guys. He has less than 600 plate appearances in his career, so we can't really get a good grasp of his big league hitting ability. His career minor league line is .303/.370/.501, with very good success against righties, so that shows some upside. If Bowker continues to progress, he could be much closer to Doumit in terms of hitting right handed pitching. He is also a better defender than Doumit, so he would probably get the nod from me on Opening Day. However, there is something to be said for Doumit. Most Pittsburghers are extremely tired of him and just want him to leave, but you can't ignore .797 OPS he's posted against righties in his career. That's very good for a catcher, not as good for a right fielder, but it definitely is good enough to earn some playing time there for the Pirates next season, if he's still on the team.
With that said, if both Doumit is still on the team come April, I would give Bowker most of the starts in right field with right handed pitchers on the mound for the first month or two, and see how it goes. If he struggles, I'd find more playing time for Doumit there. Bowker has more upside overall, so he would be my guy.
Who is the best against left handed batters? It's Diaz, and it's not close. Milledge has put up decent numbers against lefties in his career, but .289/.363/.435 in not a lot of playing time doesn't match up to .335/.373/.533 in a bunch of playing time. This one doesn't even need discussion with Milledge not on the roster anymore, but it definitely shows that the Pirates made the right move in losing Milledge and picking up Diaz.
If I were making the lineups, I would also implement a platoon at first base between Garrett Jones and Steve Pearce. Now I'm still hoping more moves are made so we can get better than we are right now, but if the season started tomorrow, and I was the manager, my lineups would look like this:
Against a right-handed pitcher:
1. Andrew McCutchen
2. Jose Tabata
3. Neil Walker
4. Pedro Alvarez
5. Garrett Jones
6. John Bowker
7. Chris Snyder
8. Ronny Cedeno
9. Pitcher
Against a left-handed pitcher:
1. Andrew McCutchen
2. Jose Tabata
3. Neil Walker
4. Pedro Alvarez
5. Steven Pearce
6. Matt Diaz
7. Chris Snyder
8. Ronny Cedeno
9. Pitcher
Now, substitute J.J. Hardy for Ronny Cedeno and you've got a decent looking lineup, and a potentially dangerous one if McCutchen, Tabata, Walker, and Alvarez continue to improve.
Correia & Olsen Pitch F/X
Comments| Type | Count | Selection | Velocity | Vertical | Horizontal |
| Slider | 805 | 32.5% | 86.2 | 3.87 | 3.01 |
| 2 Seam FB | 679 | 27.4% | 89.7 | 6.50 | -7.74 |
| 4 Seam FB | 563 | 22.7% | 90.3 | 8.96 | -2.52 |
| Curveball | 223 | 9.0% | 76.6 | -6.35 | 7.44 |
| Changeup | 204 | 8.2% | 85.6 | 4.16 | -5.90 |
| Type | Count | Selection | Velocity | Vertical | Horizontal |
| Changeup | 597 | 45.8% | 83.1 | 4.87 | 5.69 |
| 2 Seam FB | 361 | 27.7% | 90.1 | 9.07 | 7.52 |
| Fastball | 166 | 12.7% | 89.3 | 7.81 | 7.88 |
| Slider | 126 | 9.7% | 81.2 | 3.73 | -0.32 |
In case you don't understand all of that, neither of these guys have anything resembling dominant stuff. I wrote an initial response post yesterday talking about the good and bad parts of the move and what we should expect from these guys next season.
As I have thought more about it, I really don't think Scott Olsen should be in the rotation come April. I really think that Charlie Morton or Brad Lincoln should be given the chance ahead of him, assuming they don't perform poorly in spring training. Correia is a solid starter and will certainly be in the Opening Day rotation, barring injury.
Olsen & Correia
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The Pirates have appeared to have reached deals with both Scott Olsen and Kevin Correia. Here's some numbers, and stuff:
Olsen:
2008: 33 GS, 4.20 ERA, 4.95 xFIP, 8.7 H/9, 3.1 BB/9, 5.0 K/9, 1.64 K/BB, 37.4 GB%, 1.0 WAR
2009: 11 GS, 6.03 ERA, 4.91 xFIP, 11.9 H/9, 3.6 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.68 K/BB, 36.7 GB%, 0.1 WAR
2010: 15 GS, 5.56 ERA, 4.39 xFIP, 10.3 H/9, 3.0 BB/9, 5.9 K/9, 1.96 K/BB, 46.5 GB%, 0.6 WAR
Correia:
2008: 19 GS, 6.05 ERA, 5.11 xFIP, 11.5 H/9, 3.8 BB/9, 5.4 K/9, 1.40 K/BB, 38.2 GB%, 0.6 WAR
2009: 33 GS, 3.91 ERA, 4.20 xFIP, 8.8 H/9, 2.9 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 2.22 K/BB, 44.8 GB%, 2.5 WAR
2010: 26 GS, 5.40 ERA, 4.19 xFIP, 9.4 H/9, 4.0 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 1.80 K/BB, 48.9 GB%, 0.1 WAR
That's a lot of numbers. Let's get down to words.
Scott Olsen does not have impressive numbers anywhere in this post. His ERA to xFIP show that he was pretty unlucky last year and was actually better than his basic numbers say, however he's a pitch-to-contact guy, just like almost every other Pirates pitcher, and the Pirates infield is bad. The xFIP will probably be higher than the ERA again in 2011 just because he's got Alvarez, Cedeno, and Walker playing behind him. He is a left handed pitcher, and he fits right in with the rest of the league's lefties in being much more effective against left handed batters. In his career, lefties have hit .252 off of him, while righties hit .282, you could say the same thing about Zach Duke however, and that didn't work out very well. The WAR (wins above replacement) numbers for Olsen tell the whole story. He's a below average big league pitcher that is easily replaced, and can only make a living in a 4 or 5 starter role.
As for Correia, the numbers are more encouraging. The 4.20 and 4.19 xFIP the last two years are pretty solid. He had some struggles late in the year last year which led to him losing his rotation spot, but that could be attributed to the fact that he tragically lost his brother in the middle of the season and it really shook him up. He's a better strikeout pitcher than Olsen, and also most of the other pitchers in the Pirates system. He had walk trouble last year, but the 2.9 BB/9 in 2009 show that he is capable of being a good control pitcher. Petco Park certainly helped his cause out, and his numbers could inflate a little just because of leaving the pitcher-friendly NL West. However, he has been very good at getting groundballs and should keep the ball in the ballpark.
While neither of these guys are really good big league pitchers, they will certainly find it easy to help the 2011 Pirates. These two will be the 3-4 or 4-5 guys in the rotation and will undoubtably help us out just by keeping guys like Jeff Karstens out of the rotation. They should get us solid innings and keep us in ball games that we weren't in last year with less than capable big league pitchers on the mound.
Good acquisitions for the Pirates, but I still think they went the safe route. I would have liked to see them get one of these guys and then take a chance on someone like Brandon Webb or Justin Duscherer.
Olsen:
2008: 33 GS, 4.20 ERA, 4.95 xFIP, 8.7 H/9, 3.1 BB/9, 5.0 K/9, 1.64 K/BB, 37.4 GB%, 1.0 WAR
2009: 11 GS, 6.03 ERA, 4.91 xFIP, 11.9 H/9, 3.6 BB/9, 6.0 K/9, 1.68 K/BB, 36.7 GB%, 0.1 WAR
2010: 15 GS, 5.56 ERA, 4.39 xFIP, 10.3 H/9, 3.0 BB/9, 5.9 K/9, 1.96 K/BB, 46.5 GB%, 0.6 WAR
Correia:
2008: 19 GS, 6.05 ERA, 5.11 xFIP, 11.5 H/9, 3.8 BB/9, 5.4 K/9, 1.40 K/BB, 38.2 GB%, 0.6 WAR
2009: 33 GS, 3.91 ERA, 4.20 xFIP, 8.8 H/9, 2.9 BB/9, 6.5 K/9, 2.22 K/BB, 44.8 GB%, 2.5 WAR
2010: 26 GS, 5.40 ERA, 4.19 xFIP, 9.4 H/9, 4.0 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, 1.80 K/BB, 48.9 GB%, 0.1 WAR
That's a lot of numbers. Let's get down to words.
Scott Olsen does not have impressive numbers anywhere in this post. His ERA to xFIP show that he was pretty unlucky last year and was actually better than his basic numbers say, however he's a pitch-to-contact guy, just like almost every other Pirates pitcher, and the Pirates infield is bad. The xFIP will probably be higher than the ERA again in 2011 just because he's got Alvarez, Cedeno, and Walker playing behind him. He is a left handed pitcher, and he fits right in with the rest of the league's lefties in being much more effective against left handed batters. In his career, lefties have hit .252 off of him, while righties hit .282, you could say the same thing about Zach Duke however, and that didn't work out very well. The WAR (wins above replacement) numbers for Olsen tell the whole story. He's a below average big league pitcher that is easily replaced, and can only make a living in a 4 or 5 starter role.
As for Correia, the numbers are more encouraging. The 4.20 and 4.19 xFIP the last two years are pretty solid. He had some struggles late in the year last year which led to him losing his rotation spot, but that could be attributed to the fact that he tragically lost his brother in the middle of the season and it really shook him up. He's a better strikeout pitcher than Olsen, and also most of the other pitchers in the Pirates system. He had walk trouble last year, but the 2.9 BB/9 in 2009 show that he is capable of being a good control pitcher. Petco Park certainly helped his cause out, and his numbers could inflate a little just because of leaving the pitcher-friendly NL West. However, he has been very good at getting groundballs and should keep the ball in the ballpark.
While neither of these guys are really good big league pitchers, they will certainly find it easy to help the 2011 Pirates. These two will be the 3-4 or 4-5 guys in the rotation and will undoubtably help us out just by keeping guys like Jeff Karstens out of the rotation. They should get us solid innings and keep us in ball games that we weren't in last year with less than capable big league pitchers on the mound.
Good acquisitions for the Pirates, but I still think they went the safe route. I would have liked to see them get one of these guys and then take a chance on someone like Brandon Webb or Justin Duscherer.
McBrothers
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The Pittsburgh Football Pirates
2 comments
So a little twitter banter got me thinking about what would happen if the Pirates turned into a football team. Here's what I got off the top of my head, with a little help from @ThreeRiversBlog and @pittpeaswv
QB: Ross Ohlendorf
To play quarterback, you need a big guy with a good arm and a lot of smarts. Ohlendorf's got all 3 of those things working for him. Easy choice for QB, plus he's got that weird last name, kinda like another Pittsburgh quarterback.
RBs: Andrew McCutchen and Chris Snyder
The speed-power combination of Cutch and Snyder could be a serious threat.
FB: Evan Meek
A short, heavy dude carrying people across the goal line.
WRs: Neil Walker, Jose Tabata, Ronny Cedeno
Walker was quite the football player in high school, so he might one of the best players on this team. Tabata has the speed and can play the ball well, and Cedeno probably wouldn't be very good but there aren't many other options with ochocinco Milledge gone.
OL: Garrett Jones, Pedro Alvarez, Ryan Doumit, Joel Hanrahan, Steve Pearce
Pretty much just find the 5 heaviest dudes on the team and throw them on the line. Hanrahan tops the weight list at 245. All of these guys are at least 6'1'' and over 200 pounds, wouldn't compete with a real football offensive line, but they could hold their own against other baseball teams, I think.
Now these players would have to do double-duty and play on both sides of the ball, just because most pitchers really can't do anything besides throw. So here's the defense.
DL: Garrett Jones, Chris Snyder, Joel Hanrahan
We're playing a 3-4 defense, I got Jones and Snyder coming off the corners, and Hanrahan playing that nose tackle.
LBs: Ryan Doumit, Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata, Steve Pearce
Some decent size for the linbacking core, but also some speed with Tabata in there. Doumit could just look at quarterbacks with those creepy eyes of his and strike instant fear.
CBs: Andrew McCutchen, Alex Presley
Two speed guys in McCutchen and Presley here. Both kind of short, but their athletic ability would make up for it.
S: Neil Walker, Chris Resop
Neil Walker would be a pretty good safety I think, Resop might suck but I wanted to throw him in here anyway. At 6'3'', 220 he might be a kind of good football player.
So there you have it, your Pittsburgh football Pirates.
QB: Ross Ohlendorf
To play quarterback, you need a big guy with a good arm and a lot of smarts. Ohlendorf's got all 3 of those things working for him. Easy choice for QB, plus he's got that weird last name, kinda like another Pittsburgh quarterback.
RBs: Andrew McCutchen and Chris Snyder
The speed-power combination of Cutch and Snyder could be a serious threat.
FB: Evan Meek
A short, heavy dude carrying people across the goal line.
WRs: Neil Walker, Jose Tabata, Ronny Cedeno
Walker was quite the football player in high school, so he might one of the best players on this team. Tabata has the speed and can play the ball well, and Cedeno probably wouldn't be very good but there aren't many other options with ochocinco Milledge gone.
OL: Garrett Jones, Pedro Alvarez, Ryan Doumit, Joel Hanrahan, Steve Pearce
Pretty much just find the 5 heaviest dudes on the team and throw them on the line. Hanrahan tops the weight list at 245. All of these guys are at least 6'1'' and over 200 pounds, wouldn't compete with a real football offensive line, but they could hold their own against other baseball teams, I think.
Now these players would have to do double-duty and play on both sides of the ball, just because most pitchers really can't do anything besides throw. So here's the defense.
DL: Garrett Jones, Chris Snyder, Joel Hanrahan
We're playing a 3-4 defense, I got Jones and Snyder coming off the corners, and Hanrahan playing that nose tackle.
LBs: Ryan Doumit, Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata, Steve Pearce
Some decent size for the linbacking core, but also some speed with Tabata in there. Doumit could just look at quarterbacks with those creepy eyes of his and strike instant fear.
CBs: Andrew McCutchen, Alex Presley
Two speed guys in McCutchen and Presley here. Both kind of short, but their athletic ability would make up for it.
S: Neil Walker, Chris Resop
Neil Walker would be a pretty good safety I think, Resop might suck but I wanted to throw him in here anyway. At 6'3'', 220 he might be a kind of good football player.
So there you have it, your Pittsburgh football Pirates.
Matt Diaz
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The Pirates non-tendered outfielder Lastings Milledge on Thursday night, and now they are looking for left field help at the big league level. While all of this was going down with Milledge, the Braves were doing the same thing with Matt Diaz, in not tendering him a contract. I personally think that Diaz is a great option for the Pirates and they should make a run at getting him. Let's take a closer look at Diaz.
Diaz does not set the world on fire when he steps into the box, however he is a very competent big league hitter. He will be 33 years old by opening day of 2011 and has been in the league since 2003. He has spent time with the Rays, Royals, and Braves. Here's his numbers for his last 5 seasons with Atlanta:
You can see that Diaz had a down year in 2010. His .250 batting average was 51 points lower than his career average, his on-base percentage was 48 points lower, and his slugging percentage was 18 points below that career average. Diaz did have significantly less opportunities in 2010, getting only 244 plate appearances (when he had averaged 317 in his years with the Braves before that and posted a career-high 425 in '09), probably mainly due to the emergence of Braves super-prospect Jason Heyward.
Diaz does not pose much of a power threat, which the Pirates would definitely like to have in their 2011 starting right fielder, but he really seems to be the best available player on the market right now for the Pirates. He won't cost them an arm and a leg and he is very likely to hit for good average and provide quality veteran leadership on and off the field.
Diaz is a right handed batter who torches left handers. In his career he has batted .335/.373/533 against them. 29 of his 43 career home runs have been off lefties. He is slightly above league average against righties as well, hitting .269/.327/.382 off them in his career.
Now the Pirates aren't the only team that could use Diaz's bat. The Philadelphia Phillies are the front runners to get Diaz. The Phils lost all-star Jayson Werth to free agency this offseason, so they will be looking to fill that big void in their lineup. They know Diaz's skills full well, he has killed them in his career (.338/.366/.591, 8 HR, 31 RBI in 165 PA against Philadelphia). PhilliesNation, a Phillies blog gives you a better look at why the Phillies would really like to get Diaz.
You can bet that the Pirates will have tough competition to sign Diaz, but they still have all of that money they said they were willing to spend this offseason, and after not getting Jorge de la Rosa, I think they will seriously consider spending some of it on Diaz. They are probably going to have to over-pay for Diaz since the Phillies are most likely going to pursue him pretty aggressively, but I think it could be a very good move for the Pirates.
Diaz does not set the world on fire when he steps into the box, however he is a very competent big league hitter. He will be 33 years old by opening day of 2011 and has been in the league since 2003. He has spent time with the Rays, Royals, and Braves. Here's his numbers for his last 5 seasons with Atlanta:
| Year | G | R | HR | RBI | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 124 | 37 | 7 | 32 | .327 | .364 | .475 | .839 |
| 2007 | 135 | 44 | 12 | 45 | .338 | .368 | .497 | .865 |
| 2008 | 43 | 9 | 2 | 14 | .244 | .264 | .304 | .568 |
| 2009 | 125 | 56 | 13 | 58 | .313 | .390 | .488 | .878 |
| 2010 | 84 | 27 | 7 | 31 | .250 | .302 | .438 | .739 |
| 8 Seasons | 559 | 185 | 43 | 192 | .301 | .350 | .456 | .806 |
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com
You can see that Diaz had a down year in 2010. His .250 batting average was 51 points lower than his career average, his on-base percentage was 48 points lower, and his slugging percentage was 18 points below that career average. Diaz did have significantly less opportunities in 2010, getting only 244 plate appearances (when he had averaged 317 in his years with the Braves before that and posted a career-high 425 in '09), probably mainly due to the emergence of Braves super-prospect Jason Heyward.
Diaz does not pose much of a power threat, which the Pirates would definitely like to have in their 2011 starting right fielder, but he really seems to be the best available player on the market right now for the Pirates. He won't cost them an arm and a leg and he is very likely to hit for good average and provide quality veteran leadership on and off the field.
Diaz is a right handed batter who torches left handers. In his career he has batted .335/.373/533 against them. 29 of his 43 career home runs have been off lefties. He is slightly above league average against righties as well, hitting .269/.327/.382 off them in his career.
Now the Pirates aren't the only team that could use Diaz's bat. The Philadelphia Phillies are the front runners to get Diaz. The Phils lost all-star Jayson Werth to free agency this offseason, so they will be looking to fill that big void in their lineup. They know Diaz's skills full well, he has killed them in his career (.338/.366/.591, 8 HR, 31 RBI in 165 PA against Philadelphia). PhilliesNation, a Phillies blog gives you a better look at why the Phillies would really like to get Diaz.
You can bet that the Pirates will have tough competition to sign Diaz, but they still have all of that money they said they were willing to spend this offseason, and after not getting Jorge de la Rosa, I think they will seriously consider spending some of it on Diaz. They are probably going to have to over-pay for Diaz since the Phillies are most likely going to pursue him pretty aggressively, but I think it could be a very good move for the Pirates.
On-Base Percentage
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One of the things that I love most about baseball is the statistics. I am a fan of numbers, and I love what numbers can do to interpret the performance of baseball players. There are dozens of different statistics used to evaluate a player's performance, some are very useful and others are pretty worthless. The most hallowed statistic is no doubt the home run. The ability to hit the ball out of the ballpark have made men like Babe Ruth, Barry Bonds, and Hank Aaron household names, regardless of if there are baseball fans present.
One statistic however is constantly overlooked, and that is on-base percentage. Every year players compete for the batting title, a competition to see who can achieve the highest batting average. The triple crown award consists of batting average, home runs, and runs batted in (a statistic that is actually pretty worthless in determining a player's true value), giving no thought to on-base percentage.
Sabermetricians and innovative baseball thinkers have a problem with this.
Think about it this way, unlike all the other major sports, baseball is an untimed game. Teams do not have 60 minutes to work with, they have 27 outs. What teams do with those 27 outs determines if they win or lose. Outs are a valuable commodity. Every time a batter gets out, the game gets 3.7% closer to ending. That said, the team that avoids outs the most will win the game much more often than not.
How do we measure that, you ask? The answer is on-base percentage. Every time a player comes to the plate, one of two things can happen - that player can record an out, or they can reach base (alright, of course, the player could do both of these things with a fielders choice, but that is considered making an out and not reaching base). On-base percentage measures how often a player does not record an out, and therefore how often the player does not draw his team closer to losing.
Billy Beane was one of the first GMs to ever truly let this thinking change the way he worked. Beane was constantly chasing after players that other teams had no real interest in, because of their on-base percentage. Nobody really understood his thinking, in fact he was one of the most criticized GMs in the history of the game. However, his stuff worked, and nobody really knew why. All of this is written about in Michael Lewis's book, Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game, a book that I highly recommend for any baseball fan.
So all of that said, let's take a look at the 2010 Pittsburgh Pirates leaders in on-base percentage. Bet you can't guess who was #1...
The league average in team on-base percentage in 2010 was .325, so it's no surprise to see the Pirates significantly below that, ranked 15th of 16 teams in the National League.
The National League on-base percentage pace was set by Reds first baseman Joey Votto, who led the league with a .424 OBP. Votto also hit for a .324 batting average, which was also near the top of the league. An interesting player in this situation is Prince Fielder, who was 3rd in the National League with a .401 on-base percentage, while hitting only .261. He was way above average at getting on base, but right around average in batting average. 2010 was considered a down year for Fielder, but was actually his 2nd best year in terms of not making outs (he had a .412 OBP in his monstrous 2009 season).
A big hit the Pirates took in on-base percentage in 2010 was because of Garrett Jones, who posted an awful .306 percentage. Five of the top ten OBPs in the National League were posted by first baseman, including all of the top 3. First base is not a demanding defensive position, which is why teams always try to find the best hitters to play that position. It's rare to find a player that is a very good defender as well as a very good hitter, so the smart thing to do is to put your best hitters at places where there is not as much defensive focus, so they can exert most their efforts into hitting the ball while still not hurting the team with their lesser defensive skills. When compared to the Pittsburgh Pirates, Jones was one of the Pirates better hitters, however when you compare him to the rest of the first baseman in the league, he was one of the worst. He is going to improve fast, or he will not be at first base for long (my guess is that Alvarez will be there in 2012).
The Pirates had nobody close to even approaching the .400 mark in OBP, which is a huge reason why we were unsuccessful on offense. The team is young and guys like Jose Tabata, Neil Walker, and Pedro Alvarez should have rising OBP's as they become more comfortable and more mature at the plate in the future.
One statistic however is constantly overlooked, and that is on-base percentage. Every year players compete for the batting title, a competition to see who can achieve the highest batting average. The triple crown award consists of batting average, home runs, and runs batted in (a statistic that is actually pretty worthless in determining a player's true value), giving no thought to on-base percentage.
Sabermetricians and innovative baseball thinkers have a problem with this.
Think about it this way, unlike all the other major sports, baseball is an untimed game. Teams do not have 60 minutes to work with, they have 27 outs. What teams do with those 27 outs determines if they win or lose. Outs are a valuable commodity. Every time a batter gets out, the game gets 3.7% closer to ending. That said, the team that avoids outs the most will win the game much more often than not.
How do we measure that, you ask? The answer is on-base percentage. Every time a player comes to the plate, one of two things can happen - that player can record an out, or they can reach base (alright, of course, the player could do both of these things with a fielders choice, but that is considered making an out and not reaching base). On-base percentage measures how often a player does not record an out, and therefore how often the player does not draw his team closer to losing.
Billy Beane was one of the first GMs to ever truly let this thinking change the way he worked. Beane was constantly chasing after players that other teams had no real interest in, because of their on-base percentage. Nobody really understood his thinking, in fact he was one of the most criticized GMs in the history of the game. However, his stuff worked, and nobody really knew why. All of this is written about in Michael Lewis's book, Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game, a book that I highly recommend for any baseball fan.
So all of that said, let's take a look at the 2010 Pittsburgh Pirates leaders in on-base percentage. Bet you can't guess who was #1...
| Rk | Pos | G | PA | AB | H | BB | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CF | Andrew McCutchen | 154 | 653 | 570 | 163 | 70 | .286 | .365 |
| 2 | 2B | Neil Walker# | 110 | 469 | 426 | 126 | 34 | .296 | .349 |
| 3 | LF | Jose Tabata | 102 | 441 | 405 | 121 | 28 | .299 | .346 |
| 4 | RF | Lastings Milledge | 113 | 412 | 379 | 105 | 28 | .277 | .332 |
| 5 | C | Ryan Doumit# | 124 | 456 | 406 | 102 | 41 | .251 | .331 |
| 6 | 3B | Pedro Alvarez* | 95 | 386 | 347 | 89 | 37 | .256 | .326 |
| 7 | 1B | Garrett Jones* | 158 | 654 | 592 | 146 | 53 | .247 | .306 |
| 8 | SS | Ronny Cedeno | 139 | 502 | 468 | 120 | 23 | .256 | .293 |
| Team Totals | 162 | 5973 | 5386 | 1303 | 463 | .242 | .304 | ||
| Rank in 16 NL teams | 16 | 16 | 15 | 16 | 15 |
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com
The league average in team on-base percentage in 2010 was .325, so it's no surprise to see the Pirates significantly below that, ranked 15th of 16 teams in the National League.
The National League on-base percentage pace was set by Reds first baseman Joey Votto, who led the league with a .424 OBP. Votto also hit for a .324 batting average, which was also near the top of the league. An interesting player in this situation is Prince Fielder, who was 3rd in the National League with a .401 on-base percentage, while hitting only .261. He was way above average at getting on base, but right around average in batting average. 2010 was considered a down year for Fielder, but was actually his 2nd best year in terms of not making outs (he had a .412 OBP in his monstrous 2009 season).
A big hit the Pirates took in on-base percentage in 2010 was because of Garrett Jones, who posted an awful .306 percentage. Five of the top ten OBPs in the National League were posted by first baseman, including all of the top 3. First base is not a demanding defensive position, which is why teams always try to find the best hitters to play that position. It's rare to find a player that is a very good defender as well as a very good hitter, so the smart thing to do is to put your best hitters at places where there is not as much defensive focus, so they can exert most their efforts into hitting the ball while still not hurting the team with their lesser defensive skills. When compared to the Pittsburgh Pirates, Jones was one of the Pirates better hitters, however when you compare him to the rest of the first baseman in the league, he was one of the worst. He is going to improve fast, or he will not be at first base for long (my guess is that Alvarez will be there in 2012).
The Pirates had nobody close to even approaching the .400 mark in OBP, which is a huge reason why we were unsuccessful on offense. The team is young and guys like Jose Tabata, Neil Walker, and Pedro Alvarez should have rising OBP's as they become more comfortable and more mature at the plate in the future.
The "Mc" Effect's First Birthday
1 comments
That's right, The "Mc" Effect has turned 1 year old.
It all started back in the spring of 2008, spring training was getting under way and I was getting incredibly excited for the season to start again. I had dabbled into blogging before, but was never able to make a serious commitment on one. I was determined to make this time different. The one thing that I had loved and looked forward to every single year of my life was Pirates baseball. Since I was getting so excited for the year season, I decided to strike up another blog and dedicate this one to my favorite sports team.
It started as a free MLBlog called Eat, Sleep, MLB, a pretty lame name. The season got under way and I began getting some pretty decent page views, mainly from commenting and chatting with other MLBLoggers. My analysis skills continued to improve and I actually started making some pretty legitimate posts that would interest even the more serious baseball fans. Not too long after the season had begun, I received an e-mail from some Pirates bloggers who had been reading my stuff. Brian from Raise The Jolly Roger invited me to begin partaking in his daily live game blogs, an opportunity which I jumped at. Jim from North Side Notch and Tim from Pirates Prospects were also involved in the liveblogs and made it a lot of fun to do. I started getting some tips from these 3 very successful bloggers and eventually doubled my viewers (partly thanks to the genius invention of Twitter, you can follow me here).
A few months into the season I realized I needed a name change. I thought for days and days and eventually came up with The "Mc" Effect. This was because the current best player on the team with Nate McLouth, and the future of the team was no doubt Andrew McCutchen, whose debut we were then eagerly anticipating. The title read "The Mc Effect, A Pirates Blog Involving The Present and Future of Center Field Patrol in Pittsburgh", or something of that nature.
There have been a couple other Pirate Mc's that I quickly call claim to, including Daniel McCutchen and the newly acquired James McDonald. I've been keeping my eye out all across sports for Mc's and I hope to soon begin giving out the "Mc of the Month Award". I tried my hand at some humor with the topic when I took a look at the 2 Mc's on the Steelers roster, you can read that post here.
My blog because more and more successful every week of the season, and hit an all-time high with posts involving the trades of Jason Bay and Xavier Nady. I was feeling very confident going into the stretch run of the season. The Pirates were finishing up another 95+ loss season, but the "Mc" Effect was on the way up.
The season came to an end and I focused my attention to offseason matters. Thanksgiving break rolled around and I suddenly had some free time on my hands. I used it, staying up into the late hours of the night working on my new domain name. I found the best option was Blogspot, so I went with it. Over the next month or so I made some design tweaks, added some other features and eventually got to the finished product, which is what you are seeing on your screen right now.
The 2010 season was another successful season for "The Mc Effect", and I expect my viewers to keep rising as we head towards 2011. I currently sit anywhere between 80-120 different viewers a day during the season, depending on posting frequency, and between 50-90 different viewers during the offseason. I'm sure those numbers aren't really close to the numbers that powerhouses like WHYGAVS, Bucs Dugout, RumBunter, and Pirates Prospects put up, but I'm hoping to continue to inch closer to them.
I'd like to thank everybody who reads the site, and encourage you all to continue to read, I'm doing my best to get better and better every single day, and feedback certainly helps. Thanks, have a great McDay.
It all started back in the spring of 2008, spring training was getting under way and I was getting incredibly excited for the season to start again. I had dabbled into blogging before, but was never able to make a serious commitment on one. I was determined to make this time different. The one thing that I had loved and looked forward to every single year of my life was Pirates baseball. Since I was getting so excited for the year season, I decided to strike up another blog and dedicate this one to my favorite sports team.
It started as a free MLBlog called Eat, Sleep, MLB, a pretty lame name. The season got under way and I began getting some pretty decent page views, mainly from commenting and chatting with other MLBLoggers. My analysis skills continued to improve and I actually started making some pretty legitimate posts that would interest even the more serious baseball fans. Not too long after the season had begun, I received an e-mail from some Pirates bloggers who had been reading my stuff. Brian from Raise The Jolly Roger invited me to begin partaking in his daily live game blogs, an opportunity which I jumped at. Jim from North Side Notch and Tim from Pirates Prospects were also involved in the liveblogs and made it a lot of fun to do. I started getting some tips from these 3 very successful bloggers and eventually doubled my viewers (partly thanks to the genius invention of Twitter, you can follow me here).
A few months into the season I realized I needed a name change. I thought for days and days and eventually came up with The "Mc" Effect. This was because the current best player on the team with Nate McLouth, and the future of the team was no doubt Andrew McCutchen, whose debut we were then eagerly anticipating. The title read "The Mc Effect, A Pirates Blog Involving The Present and Future of Center Field Patrol in Pittsburgh", or something of that nature.
There have been a couple other Pirate Mc's that I quickly call claim to, including Daniel McCutchen and the newly acquired James McDonald. I've been keeping my eye out all across sports for Mc's and I hope to soon begin giving out the "Mc of the Month Award". I tried my hand at some humor with the topic when I took a look at the 2 Mc's on the Steelers roster, you can read that post here.
My blog because more and more successful every week of the season, and hit an all-time high with posts involving the trades of Jason Bay and Xavier Nady. I was feeling very confident going into the stretch run of the season. The Pirates were finishing up another 95+ loss season, but the "Mc" Effect was on the way up.
The season came to an end and I focused my attention to offseason matters. Thanksgiving break rolled around and I suddenly had some free time on my hands. I used it, staying up into the late hours of the night working on my new domain name. I found the best option was Blogspot, so I went with it. Over the next month or so I made some design tweaks, added some other features and eventually got to the finished product, which is what you are seeing on your screen right now.
The 2010 season was another successful season for "The Mc Effect", and I expect my viewers to keep rising as we head towards 2011. I currently sit anywhere between 80-120 different viewers a day during the season, depending on posting frequency, and between 50-90 different viewers during the offseason. I'm sure those numbers aren't really close to the numbers that powerhouses like WHYGAVS, Bucs Dugout, RumBunter, and Pirates Prospects put up, but I'm hoping to continue to inch closer to them.
I'd like to thank everybody who reads the site, and encourage you all to continue to read, I'm doing my best to get better and better every single day, and feedback certainly helps. Thanks, have a great McDay.
Lance Berkman, Derrek Lee, Randall Simon
2 comments
Alright well Randall Simon has absolutely nothing to do with this post, but I figured I'd throw it in there for kicks.
The Pirates have been mentioned in the talks about acquiring Derrek Lee and Lance Berkman. If it were up to me, I'd avoid both of them.
First we'll talk about Lee. Here's the stats:
Lee had a pretty bad season last year in his split time with the Cubs and Braves. At the age of 34, a decline in numbers would not surprise anybody, however a drop that big after a big season in '08 was pretty unexpected and hard to figure out. Chances are his numbers won't be that bad again in 2011 and he would definitely be an offensive and defensive upgrade for the Pirates. However, at what cost? The Pirates wouldn't get him for more than a year or 2, and chances are he'll be seriously considering retirement by then anyway, so we'd be playing pretty much near top-dollar for a guy that will only help us for 2 years maximum. Does anybody expect the Pirates to compete this year? No, and throwing money at short term free agents isn't going to get us there either. As rumbunter.com reported the other day, Derrek Lee is not exactly a model leader in the clubhouse and there is little reason to believe that he would assume that role in Pittsburgh, which is a big thing the Pirates would want him to do for the money they'd pay for him. Paying $8-10 million dollars for a guy at the end of his career with plummeting production and no desire to be a team leader? No thanks.
As for Berkman, a lot of the same things can be said. Here's the stats:
Berkman would also be an offensive upgrade for the Pirates, but his defense is somewhat suspect, and wouldn't be much of an upgrade, if an upgrade at all, from Garrett Jones/Steven Pearce. The 30 HR potential would definitely be a good thing to have in the lineup, and his leadership abilities are much greater than Lee's and could help a lot with the young guys on the team (aka all of them), but the fact that he is 34 years old and looking for around $7 million for one year makes it really unwise for the Pirates to acquire him, in my opinion.
We all know the Pirates have the money to spend in free agency this offseason, but that doesn't mean they should spend it unwisely.
There are some other options on the market such as Russell Branyan, but I think the Pirates best bet here is to go with a Jones/Pearce platoon. Jones was very bad against lefties last year (.220/.360/.621), but Pearce is a pretty good lifetime hitter against them (.304/.372/557 in ML career). A full-season of a platoon between these guys could result in some pretty decent numbers. The numbers still probably won't add up to leave average for first basemen, especially in power numbers, but I think it could be enough to get by for the year (not that the Pirates are going anywhere in 2011 anyway). The future at first base is Pedro Alvarez, so there's no real need to solve that issue from the outside.
With the first pick in the draft next year, the Pirates have the chance to draft a potential perennial all-star third baseman in Anthony Rendon. While that is still a long ways away, the Pirates should have it in mind and not spend so much money on a quick-fix that they will be negatively effected in the long run.
The Pirates need pitching, and they need to spend their money on that this offseason and not worry about the first base situation.
Randall Simon, if you're reading this, I want to hang out sometime, contact me.
The Pirates have been mentioned in the talks about acquiring Derrek Lee and Lance Berkman. If it were up to me, I'd avoid both of them.
First we'll talk about Lee. Here's the stats:
| Year | Tm | G | HR | RBI | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | CHC | 155 | 20 | 90 | .291 | .361 | .462 | .823 |
| 2009 | CHC | 141 | 35 | 111 | .306 | .393 | .579 | .972 |
| 2010 | TOT | 148 | 19 | 80 | .260 | .347 | .428 | .774 |
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com.
Lee had a pretty bad season last year in his split time with the Cubs and Braves. At the age of 34, a decline in numbers would not surprise anybody, however a drop that big after a big season in '08 was pretty unexpected and hard to figure out. Chances are his numbers won't be that bad again in 2011 and he would definitely be an offensive and defensive upgrade for the Pirates. However, at what cost? The Pirates wouldn't get him for more than a year or 2, and chances are he'll be seriously considering retirement by then anyway, so we'd be playing pretty much near top-dollar for a guy that will only help us for 2 years maximum. Does anybody expect the Pirates to compete this year? No, and throwing money at short term free agents isn't going to get us there either. As rumbunter.com reported the other day, Derrek Lee is not exactly a model leader in the clubhouse and there is little reason to believe that he would assume that role in Pittsburgh, which is a big thing the Pirates would want him to do for the money they'd pay for him. Paying $8-10 million dollars for a guy at the end of his career with plummeting production and no desire to be a team leader? No thanks.
As for Berkman, a lot of the same things can be said. Here's the stats:
| Year | Tm | HR | RBI | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | HOU | 29 | 106 | .312 | .420 | .567 | .986 |
| 2009 | HOU | 25 | 80 | .274 | .399 | .509 | .907 |
| 2010 | TOT | 14 | 58 | .248 | .368 | .413 | .781 |
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com
Berkman would also be an offensive upgrade for the Pirates, but his defense is somewhat suspect, and wouldn't be much of an upgrade, if an upgrade at all, from Garrett Jones/Steven Pearce. The 30 HR potential would definitely be a good thing to have in the lineup, and his leadership abilities are much greater than Lee's and could help a lot with the young guys on the team (aka all of them), but the fact that he is 34 years old and looking for around $7 million for one year makes it really unwise for the Pirates to acquire him, in my opinion.
We all know the Pirates have the money to spend in free agency this offseason, but that doesn't mean they should spend it unwisely.
There are some other options on the market such as Russell Branyan, but I think the Pirates best bet here is to go with a Jones/Pearce platoon. Jones was very bad against lefties last year (.220/.360/.621), but Pearce is a pretty good lifetime hitter against them (.304/.372/557 in ML career). A full-season of a platoon between these guys could result in some pretty decent numbers. The numbers still probably won't add up to leave average for first basemen, especially in power numbers, but I think it could be enough to get by for the year (not that the Pirates are going anywhere in 2011 anyway). The future at first base is Pedro Alvarez, so there's no real need to solve that issue from the outside.
With the first pick in the draft next year, the Pirates have the chance to draft a potential perennial all-star third baseman in Anthony Rendon. While that is still a long ways away, the Pirates should have it in mind and not spend so much money on a quick-fix that they will be negatively effected in the long run.
The Pirates need pitching, and they need to spend their money on that this offseason and not worry about the first base situation.
Randall Simon, if you're reading this, I want to hang out sometime, contact me.
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