The Predictability of Playoff Baseball

One great thing about the game of baseball is how close it makes its competitors. It's very hard to predict who will win a single game of baseball, because of all the different random things that can happen during a game. We are nearing playoff time now, which is exciting for many reasons. One thing I can say about the playoffs is that they are easier to predict than regular season games. Teams have nothing to lose and you know that the best players and pitchers will be used at all times. We can gather a pretty decent idea of which teams have the best chance to be the last teams standing, click here for odds.

Baseball added another Wild Card team this year, which gives us a one-game Wild Card round to open up the postseason. That means a team that has won substantially more games in the regular season could be knocked out by a team with substantially less wins just because of the randomness of one game of baseball. It doesn't seem fair, but it's a reality. The series favorite will be a one game favorite, which will be mainly determined by which starting pitchers toe the rubber. If the second Wild Card team clinches its playoff berth in one of the final games of the year, they very well could go into that game with their ace pitcher unable to pitch. That would create a pretty decent betting situation, if you're into sports betting.

Right now the Texas Rangers come in as the World Series favorite at 4/1. The Washington Nationals and Cincinnati Reds are right behind them at 5/1. Obviously those odds will change as the playoff teams are sorted out and seeded, but there are advantages to getting into the action early. Right now there are a number of teams with a mathematical chance to win the World Series, that won't be true when the regular season ends, which means the odds will get worse as more teams are eliminated.

Right now, I like the Giants out of the National League and the Yankees out of the American League. Those teams seem to have a solid three man rotation, which is what really matters, and they have the bats and experience to compliment it. I've been wrong before and I'll be wrong again, so go figure out your own predictions, what do you have to lose?