Another Sabermetric Look At Tim Tebow

There isn't a more interesting or intriguing story in sports right now than what Tim Tebow is doing with the Denver Broncos. Tebow has started six games behind center and has now won five of them. The man did all of that without passing for more than 161 yards in any single game. Let's take a look at the numbers that they don't talk about.

Here's Tebow's saber metric season, click here to get the explanation of what the statistics mean from advancednflstats.com.

-0.29 WPA, -13.6 EPA, -0.04 WPA/G, -0.05 EPA/P, 38.0 SR%, 34.3 %DEEP, 4.4 AYPA

Even if you don't fully understand the concepts of saber metrics in football, you can tell that those numbers are not good. You can (kind of) say that every time Tebow throws or runs the ball, the Broncos are losing points (based on that EPA/P) number. Now that's pretty deceptive to say, but it compares him to an average NFL quarterback. Let's look at Tebow's saber metric performance on a game-by-game basis.

Week 7 vs. MIA: -0.03 WPA, 2.1 EPA
Week 8 vs. DET: -0.22 WPA, -26.9 EPA
Week 9 vs. OAK: -0.03 WPA, 4.6 EPA
Week 10 vs. KC: 0.04 WPA, 1.8 EPA
Week 11 vs. NYJ: 0.29 WPA, -0.1 EPA
Week 12 vs. SD: -0.23 WPA, -0.2 EPA

How is a guy that has cost his team win probability in four of the six games he has started led his team to a 5-1 record? Mind boggling? Maybe.

It's actually not all that mind boggling when you look at the facts. The strength of schedule hasn't been the toughest for Tebow. Detroit, Oakland, and New York are the only winning teams he has faced, but that's half of the games he has started, and a 50% winning vs. losing opponents percentage is what you would expect to happen mathematically, right? However, Oakland isn't a great winning team, the Jets have big issues and the Lions have been struggling a good bit since starting hot. So there's that.

Also, the Broncos defense has played much better and Willis McGahee has been spectacular for them. Tebow truly has not been asked to do much. The most he has thrown the ball in one game in a win was 27 times against Miami. He has thrown the ball 46 times in his last three games (completing just 20 of those passes I might add).

Tebow has almost become a run-first quarterback. In his six starts, he has carried the ball 71 times for 418 yards (an average of 5.9 yards per carry). That seems to be helping his team in their new run-first mentality.

One thing you can say positively for Tebow is that he has not been turning the ball over. He has just one interception and one lost fumble. Two turnovers in six games is a great ratio, especially for an unexperienced quarterback like Tebow (although if he were to throw the ball at a league average rate, I'm sure the interceptions would be higher).

I'm going to continue to be logical for at least one more paragraph. All precedent, logic, and mathematics suggest that Tebow's success is only temporary and his poor play at the quarterback position will eventually lead to some losses for his team. Outside of this Tebow thing, my school of thought for sports follows the math and logic pathway.

HOWEVER, Tebow is something else. There's something about the guy. Warning: I'm about to get religious.

I myself am a dedicated Christian much like Tebow; I've even perfected by morning Tebow-stance prayers. I never thought that God had any direct influence on the outcome of sports events, and I still don't. However, this Tebow stuff has me questioning some things. I still don't believe that this guy is winning games because he is a Christian, that seems illogical and unfair, but it does make you wonder, doesn't it?

If Tebow leads his team to the playoffs, I may revisit that side of this whole story, but for now I'm going to stick with the statistics.

Any way you cut it, you want to watch this guy play. He is a great thing for the game and will add major intrigue for the rest of this football season.