2011 Pittsburgh Pirates Preview and Predictions

The 2011 Pittsburgh Pirates baseball season is just days away. To get you geared up and ready, I'm going to provide a quick look at all the starters and pitchers and give some predictions as to what I think their numbers are going to look like this year. Let's get right to it:

Catcher #1: Chris Snyder - Snyder is a defense first catcher, and that is exactly why the Pirates brought him in last year. He has decent power but is not going to impress anybody with the bat. The reason we are considering him an upgrade from last year's Opening Day Catcher is because of the defensive ability he brings. He will certainly help the Pirates in that aspect, but I'm not sure how much he can do with the bat.
Prediction: .235 AVG, .315 OBP, 12 HR, 40 RBI

Catcher #2: Ryan Doumit - Not many Pirate fans wanted to still be talking about Doumit at this point of the year, most of us wanted him to be traded a long time ago. However, the Pirates could not find a buyer and Doumit is back on the roster again for 2011. When Snyder is healthy, Doumit will be the backup catcher with the ability to play some right field and first base. He will be the team's primary pinch hitter if they have Jaramillo on the roster to serve as the backup catcher, but if not he will not be seeing much playing time.
Prediction: .265 AVG, .310 OBP, 8 HR, 35 RBI

First Baseman: Lyle Overbay - One of the biggest offseason moves the Pirates made was bringing in Overbay. There were a lot of mixed thoughts about the move, but Overbay had a very impressive spring and is looking to help this Pirate offense in any way he can. It would be really, really hard for him to not be an upgrade over the combination of Jeff Clement and Garrett Jones that played first base for the Pirates last year.
Prediction: .275 AVG, .340 OBP, 17 HR, 75 RBI

Second Baseman: Neil Walker - Walker had a huge impact when he came up to Pittsburgh last season. There is really no way to be confident in predicting his 2011 season, but we can say that the ceiling is very high. I am going to take a more conservative approach with my prediction, but I don't see why he couldn't repeat some of last year's success.
Prediction: .270 AVG, .345 OBP, 19 HR, 67 RBI

Shortstop: Ronny Cedeno - Shortstop was another position that Pirate fans were hoping to improve on coming into 2011, however the Pirates were unable to do it. Cedeno is back and the ceiling is still low.
Prediction: .240 AVG, .280 OBP, 10 HR, 50 RBI

Third Base: Pedro Alvarez - One of the biggest reasons to be excited about the 2011 season is the man at third base. Alvarez has a higher ceiling than anybody on the Pirates, possibly aside from McCutchen. I'm expecting big things from Alvarez this year. He still has a lot of things to work out with his defense and with some of the holes in his swing, but I certainly would not be shocked if Alvarez is a top 3 offensive third baseman in the National League this year.
Prediction: .275 AVG, .320 OBP, 33 HR, 95 RBI

Left Field: Jose Tabata - One of the big four in this Pirates lineup, Tabata is an extremely versatile player. He plays good defense and has very useful speed on the basepaths. After his call-up, he was one of the Pirates best hitters, and one of the best players in terms of hits in the National League. Tabata isn't going to hit for power, but I'm expecting him to get on base quite a bit and score a lot of runs for the Buccos this year.
Prediction: .295 AVG, .355 OBP, 90 R, 7 HR, 55 RBI, 40 SB

Center Field: Andrew McCutchen - The most popular Pirate, the sky seems to be the limit for this guy. We all know what he can do, and I am going to be pretty bold in my prediction here.
Prediction: .320 AVG, .380 OBP, 25 HR, 80 RBI, 35 SB

Left Field: Garrett Jones - Jones was an everyday player last year, but those days appear to be over. With the addition of Diaz, Jones will only get starts when there is a right hander on the mound. That actually turns out to be around 70% of the time in today's league, so Jones should see the field a good bit. His batting average is going to look high in this prediction, but remember, he won't have to face as many lefties this year, which should help.
Prediction: .275 AVG, .345 OBP, 15 HR, 55 RBI

Left Field #2: Matt Diaz - Diaz will start in right field games with a left handed pitcher on the mound for the opposing team. That will result in him not getting as many at bats as he had in the past, so we will see how that affects his numbers. He is an extremely good hitter against lefties, so his batting average should be very high this year.
Prediction: .310 AVG, .360 OBP, 9 HR, 40 RBI

Bench: Josh Rodriguez - Rodriguez was the Pirates Rule 5 pick that was slightly outperformed by Pedro Ciriaco this spring but got the nod because of his upside and the fact that the Pirates did not want to lose him. He won't play all that often, but if Cedeno goes down he could step in and impress some people.
Prediction: .250 AVG, .290 OBP, 5 HR, 20 RBI, 7 SB

Bench: John Bowker - Bowker won't be guaranteed to be on the big league team all year long, so it's hard to predict what he'll do this year. That said, I am really glad he is on the team right now and hope he gets some at bats this year, I really like the power he brings.
Prediction: .260 AVG, .305 OBP, 8 HR, 30 RBI

Bench: Steven Pearce - Pearce earned a spot on this year's roster with a pretty good spring and the ability to play a little bit of third base. Pearce could be a good pinch hitting option off lefties, and brings a little bit of power to the table. Who knows how long he'll stay in the bigs, he seems to have problems with that, but Pearce is a decent guy to have on the roster.
Prediction: .280 AVG, .335 OBP, 5 HR, 25 RBI


I did a preview of the starting rotation in January, and that is a lot more in depth than what this is going to be, so if you want to read more, you can check that series out right here.

Starting Pitcher: Kevin Correia - Correia did not look very good most of the time this spring, and the Pirates really have not had any success in recent years with free agent pitchers. My predictions are pretty low and I really hope he pitches better than what I say he will, and I think there is a very good chance that he will do just that.
Prediction: 4.45 ERA, 4.25 FIP, 1.35 WHIP, 6.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9

Starting Pitcher: Paul Maholm - After a very discouraging 2010 season, I have even lower expectations for 2011. This pitching staff is bad, and Maholm is probably the worst guy in my opinion. Hopefully he will prove me wrong.
Prediction: 4.75 ERA, 4.25 FIP, 1.40 WHIP, 4.8 K/9, 2.7 BB/9

Starting Pitcher: Ross Ohlendorf - No one was worse in spring training than Ohlendorf. He wasn't making good pitches and was getting hit really hard. Things were looking extremely optimistic for Ohlendorf before last season, but that's not really the case anymore. He still has pretty big upside but I'm not too optimistic for him this year.
Prediction: 4.30 ERA, 4.20 FIP, 1.35 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, 2.7 BB/9

Starting Pitcher: James McDonald - One of the Pirates only pitchers that can actually get swings and misses, McDonald actually provides Pirate fans with the hope of a dominating pitching performance when he is on the mound. Let's hope he realizes some of his potential and continues on his solid career in Pittsburgh that he started last summer. I'm pretty optimistic, is that a mistake?
Prediction: 3.60 ERA, 3.35 FIP, 1.25 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 3.1 BB/9

Starting Pitcher: Charlie Morton - Morton was one of the Pirates few bright spots in spring training. He looks poised to become a solid major leaguer. However, one or two ugly outings early in the season could send him back to the days of zero confidence and getting lit up every time out. Cross your fingers people.
Prediction: 4.00 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 1.30 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 3.3 BB/9

Relief Pitcher: Joel Hanrahan - Hanrahan has been named the team's closer and should be very solid at the back end of the bullpen for the Bucs. He could have some struggles early on, but when all is said and done I think he'll be one of the better relievers in the National League.
Prediction: 3.45 ERA, 3.35 FIP, 1.20 WHIP, 11.5 K/9, 3.0 BB/9

Relief Pitcher: Evan Meek - Meek was the Pirates lone all-star last year. That was a testament to how bad the rest of the team was. I think Meek might take a step backwards this year, but will still be a very good pitcher.
Prediction: 3.05 ERA, 3.00 FIP, 1.25 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, 4.0 BB/9

Relief Pitcher: Chris Resop - Resop was surprisingly good for the Pirates last year in his short time with the team. I don't expect another 1.89 ERA, but I think he'll be a really good 7th inning guy for the Bucs.
Prediction: 3.10 ERA, 2.80 FIP, 1.35 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, 3.3 BB/9

The rest of the bullpen is kind of a crapshoot, so I'm not going to bother trying to predict what will happen there.

All-in-all this is a much better team than the 2010 version of the Pittsburgh Pirates.

All of this considered, my prediction for the Pirates record in 2011 in 72-90, a 5th place finish in the National League Central (right in front of the Houston Astros).