The Pirates were scuffling to find starting pitching after Ross Ohlendorf went down and McCutchen did not pitch well. They filled the first gap with Burres, who looked just awful in his first start and left us fans hoping we would never see him pitch in a Pirates uniform again. However, he pitched well enough to earn another start in his 2nd and 3rd outings, which set him up with the opportunity to do what he has done in his last start - and that is not allow a run in 12.1 straight innings.
The next opportunity was given to Jeff Karstens, who had the seemingly impossible task of beating the Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park during the Pirates current 7 game losing streak. Somehow Karstens was up for the challenge and went 6.2 innings giving up only 2 earned runs and earning the victory at a time where the Pirates needed it the most. His next outing was not great, giving up 6 runs in 5 innings, but he bounced back and was brilliant in his start tonight, going 6 shutout innings against the first place St. Louis Cardinals.
The Pirates now have 2 tough decisions to make - who will stay in the rotation, and what to do with the pitcher who doesn't stay in the rotation. Let's take a closer look at these two guys:
Career Stats:
Burres: 287.0 IP, 15-21, 5.93 ERA, .296 BAA, 4.3 BB/9, 5.7 K/9
Karstens: 234.1 IP, 10-18, 5.07 ERA, .282 BAA, 3.3 BB/9, 4.1 K/9
2010 Stats:
Burres: 22 IP, 2-1, 4.09 ERA, 5.7 BB/9, 5.3 K/9
Karstens: 17.2 IP, 1-1, 4.08 ERA, 3.6 BB/9, 5.7 K/9
Pitch Selection:
Burres: 58.4% FB, 14.3% SL, 14.1% CB, 13.3% CH, 1.6% unknown
Karstens: 60.8% FB, 13.6% CB, 13.1% SL, 12.5% CH, 2.2% unknown
Average Pitch Velocity:
Burres: 88.0 FB, 81.9 SL, 74.5 CB, 78.8 CH
Karstens: 89.3 FB, 79.7 SL, 74.1 CB, 80.9 CH
Pitch Type Values:
Burres: -2.6 FB, 2.2 SL, -0.3 CB, -1.6 CH
Karstens: -3.5 FB, 1.4 SL, -0.4 CB, -1.8 CH
Looking at all of that, it's pretty evident that these guys are neck and neck in almost every phase of the pitching game. Age isn't much of a factor, Burres is 29 and Karstens is 27, but neither of these guys have too much higher of a ceiling that they could reach at this point in their careers. It's obvious that Karstens is a better control pitcher, and Burres is a better strikeout pitcher. Opponents hit Burres 14 points better than they hit Karstens, and the walks that come with Burres cause the on base percentage to be an even bigger gap than the average. Both of them are mediocre stuff-wise, Karstens has shown just a tad bit better velocity on his fastball so far this year, but the difference of 1 mph doesn't make much difference.
While it's tough to pick between the two, I personally would take Karstens over Burres. The main reason for that would be the control. Any major league pitcher can be successful if they have good control, regardless of the stuff they have. Neither of these guys has great stuff, so I would rather have the guy who is better at locating the ball on the hill for my team. Karstens might be more of a pitch to contact guy, but he has shown the ability to locate the ball well enough to be successful.
John Russell has already said that Brian Burres will get at least one more start, but if it were up to me, unless he is spectacular once again, I would send him to the bullpen after that. Karstens is younger and a better locator than Burres, which is good enough to get my vote for the 5th spot in the rotation, at least for a month or so until Brad Lincoln gets called up.